Quantitative Easing: Money Supply and Commodity Prices of Oil, Gold, and Cocoa in Ghana

This study investigates the dynamic relationships between the money supply (M2) and key commodity prices (Cocoa, Gold, and Crude) in the context of Ghana. Utilizing Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis, we analyze the short-term and long-term Granger causality relationships among these variables, aiming to shed light on the potential linkages between monetary policy and commodity markets. The analysis covers the period from December 1999 to April 2023, using lag structures of 1 and 8 to capture both short-term and more enduring effects. Our findings reveal significant Granger causality relationships between the money supply and various commodities, with nuanced patterns emerging across different lags. In the short-run, our results suggest bidirectional causal relationships between COCOA and M2, CRUDE and M2, and GOLD and M2. Additionally, M2 Granger causes changes in COCOA, CRUDE, and GOLD. However, the causal relationship between COCOA and GOLD appears to be unidirectional, with COCOA not significantly Granger causing changes in GOLD. The short-term findings highlight the intricate interplay between monetary policy and commodity markets. In the long-run (lag 8), our analysis unveils robust Granger causality relationships between the variables. Past values of COCOA, CRUDE, and GOLD Granger cause changes in M2, indicating a notable influence of commodity markets on the money supply. Similarly, M2 Granger causes changes in CRUDE and GOLD. Notably, the findings underscore a more comprehensive and intertwined relationship between monetary policy and commodity prices in the long-run. Based on these results, we derive several policy implications. Policymakers should carefully consider the potential impact of monetary policy decisions, such as quantitative easing, on commodity markets and price dynamics. Measures to stabilize commodity prices, promote export diversification, manage inflation expectations, and enhance economic resilience are recommended. Additionally, effective data monitoring, international collaboration, and proactive risk management strategies are essential components for navigating the complex interactions between monetary policy and commodity markets. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of the intricate connections between monetary policy and commodity prices in Ghana, offering insights for policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders seeking to promote sustainable economic growth and stability. Further research can delve into the mechanisms underlying these relationships and explore their broader implications for trade balances, economic performance, and policy formulation.

Spillovers of US unconventional monetary policy:quantitative easing,spreads,and international financial markets

This study investigates the international spillover effects of US unconventional monetary policy(UMP)-frequently called large-scale asset purchases or quantitative easing(QE)—on advanced and emerging market economies,using structural vector autoregressive models with high-frequency daily data.Blinder(Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis Rev 92(6):465–479,2010)argued that the QE measures primarily aim to reduce US interest rate spreads,such as term and risk premiums.Considering this argument and recent empirical evidence,we use two spreads as indicators of US UMP:the mortgage and term spreads.Based on data from 20 emerging and 20 advanced countries,our empirical findings reveal that US unconventional monetary policies significantly affect financial conditions in emerging and advanced countries by altering the risktaking behavior of investors.This result suggests that the risk-taking channel plays an important role in transmitting the effects of these policies to the rest of the world.The extent of these effects depends on the type of QE measures.QE measures such as purchases of private sector securities that lower the US mortgage spread exert stronger and more significant spillover effects on international financial markets than those that reduce the US term spread.Furthermore,the estimated financial spillovers vary substantially across countries and between and within the emerging and advanced countries that we examine in this study.

Forecasting investment and consumption behavior of economic agents through dynamic computable general equilibrium model

Much research has been devoted to examination of the financial easing policy of the European Central Bank(ECB).However,this study is one of the first to use a dynamic micro-founded model to investigate empirically the impact of the ECB’s Quantitative Easing(QE)policy on consumption and investment by economic agents in Italy(households,government,firms,and the rest of the world).For this purpose,we constructed a Financial Social Accounting Matrix(FSAM)for the Italian economy for the year 2009 to calibrate a dynamic computable general equilibrium model(DCGE).This model allowed us to evaluate the direct and indirect impact of money flow on the behavior of consumption and investment.The findings of the study confirmed the positive impact of the ECB’s monetary policy on the level of investment and consumption.

The Inflation Target in the Euro Area

Inflation Targeting(IT)is nowadays the basis of the monetary policy framework in most of the advanced and the emerging economies of the world.For many years the inflation target was conceived as the upper bound of permissible inflation rates and Central Banks tried to prevent them to trespass the bound.But after the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 the world monetary scenery changed deeply:nominal interest rates dropped down near to zero,inflation rates began to run well below the targets and the task of Central Banks became to raise them towards the target.A new instrument of policy was employed by Central Banks in order to try to raise inflation rates,namely Quantitative Easing(QE)operations,consisting in massive outright purchases of various kinds of financial assets(mainly national governments bonds)to be held and rolled over at maturity,so producing a structural enlargement of liquidity and expansionary effects throughout the economies.In the Euro Area since 2015 onwards the European Central Bank(ECB),which defined the inflation target as an year—on year increase in the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices(HICP)of below but close to 2%,launched various Asset Purchasing Programmes(APPs)in order to increase liquidity and raise too low inflation rates;in year 2020 in order to face the heavy economic effects of Covid-19 Pandemic a new great App of 750 billion euro was launched.But QE operations are clumsy and roundabout ways to raise inflation rates because they must first pass through the financial sectors which may be destabilized by the excess of liquidity:anomalous rises in asset prices,debts,financial leverages and derivatives threaten the economic equilibrium and solvency of banks and other financial institutions.Moreover,in the medium and long run,the availability of credit at too low interest rates favours the survival of unprofitable,noncompetitive and even obsolete business enterprises,hindering the birth and growth of new more productive and innovative enterprises.