量化宽松货币政策的理论、实践与影响

全球金融危机已使全球经济陷入衰退,为应对危机各国央行不断降息。随着短期利率接近零,美、日、英等主要国家的央行转而求助于"量化宽松货币政策",即通过购买长期国债等方式向经济注入巨量的流动性。全球大规模采取量化宽松政策在历史上尚属首次,对世界经济和中国经济都将产生难以估量的影响,对此有必要进行深入的分析。为此,在对量化宽松政策理论基础进行分析的基础上,进一步研究了日本量化宽松政策实践的经验与教训,以及当前量化宽松政策对全球经济的的影响。

金融危机中的货币政策理论分析与启示

全球经济危机袭来,各国在推出巨额经济刺激计划的同时,其央行也采取了激进的政策措施,实施了降息甚至零利率的货币政策,美联储等还采取了购买长期国债的非常规手段。本文分析了金融危机中货币政策选择人的困局,指出货币政策的首要作用是提供流动性和稳定金融体系,并可以通过量化宽松、征收持有货币税等操作改变投资者预期、降低长期利率甚至突破零利率的限制,从而进一步发挥货币政策的作用。最后,本文分析了制约货币政策手段生效的因素,得出其对我国货币政策选择的若干启示。

The Inflation Target in the Euro Area

Inflation Targeting(IT)is nowadays the basis of the monetary policy framework in most of the advanced and the emerging economies of the world.For many years the inflation target was conceived as the upper bound of permissible inflation rates and Central Banks tried to prevent them to trespass the bound.But after the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 the world monetary scenery changed deeply:nominal interest rates dropped down near to zero,inflation rates began to run well below the targets and the task of Central Banks became to raise them towards the target.A new instrument of policy was employed by Central Banks in order to try to raise inflation rates,namely Quantitative Easing(QE)operations,consisting in massive outright purchases of various kinds of financial assets(mainly national governments bonds)to be held and rolled over at maturity,so producing a structural enlargement of liquidity and expansionary effects throughout the economies.In the Euro Area since 2015 onwards the European Central Bank(ECB),which defined the inflation target as an year—on year increase in the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices(HICP)of below but close to 2%,launched various Asset Purchasing Programmes(APPs)in order to increase liquidity and raise too low inflation rates;in year 2020 in order to face the heavy economic effects of Covid-19 Pandemic a new great App of 750 billion euro was launched.But QE operations are clumsy and roundabout ways to raise inflation rates because they must first pass through the financial sectors which may be destabilized by the excess of liquidity:anomalous rises in asset prices,debts,financial leverages and derivatives threaten the economic equilibrium and solvency of banks and other financial institutions.Moreover,in the medium and long run,the availability of credit at too low interest rates favours the survival of unprofitable,noncompetitive and even obsolete business enterprises,hindering the birth and growth of new more productive and innovative enterprises.

国外流动性变化对我国流动性和利率的影响分析

随着市场对于美联储提前退出量化宽松政策预期的增强，研究国外流动性变化对我国流动性和利率变化的影响具有现实意义。该文通过实证分析发现，国外流动性变化对我国流动性变化的影响较大，而国外利率变化对我国利率变化的影响不明显。针对美联储量化宽松货币政策退出产生的影响，文章提出相关应对建议。

量化宽松货币政策的理论、实践与影响

全球金融危机已使全球经济陷入衰退,为应对危机各国央行不断降息。随着短期利率接近于零,美、日、英等主要国家的央行转而求助于"量化宽松货币政策",即通过购买长期国债等方式向经济注入巨量的流动性。全球大规模采取量化宽松政策在历史上尚属首次,对世界经济和中国经济都将产生难以估量的影响,对此有必要进行深入的分析。为此,本文在对量化宽松货币政策的理论基础进行分析的基础上,进一步研究了日本量化宽松政策实践的经验与教训及其影响,并提出相应的政策建议。

美元走势对世界主要经济体货币的影响

2014年以来，全球外汇市场风起云涌、变化莫测。特别是美元，从2014年下半年开始突然发力，到2015年3月累计升值了20％，与美元相比，欧元、日元都有很大的跌幅，卢布更是惨遭腰斩，其他所有发展中国家的货币，对于美元也是望风而逃，只有人民币勉强能够稳住阵脚，那到底美元加息对别国的货币产生了哪些影响？本文将做简要回顾。