Within the context of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor(CMEC),the Dulong-Ir-rawaddy(Ayeyarwady)River,an international river among China,India and Myanmar,plays a significant role...Within the context of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor(CMEC),the Dulong-Ir-rawaddy(Ayeyarwady)River,an international river among China,India and Myanmar,plays a significant role as both a valuable hydro-power resource and an essential ecological passageway.However,the water resources and security exhibit a high degree of vulnerabil-ity to climate change impacts.This research evaluates climate impacts on the hydrology of the Dulong-Irrawaddy River Basin(DIRB)by using a physical-based hydrologic model.We crafted future climate scenarios using the three latest global climate models(GCMs)from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6)under two shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5)for the near(2025-2049),mid(2050-2074),and far future(2075-2099).The regional model using MIKE SHE based on historical hydrologic processes was developed to further project future streamflow,demonstrating reliable performance in streamflow simulations with a val-idation Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency(NSE)of 0.72.Results showed that climate change projections showed increases in the annual precip-itation and potential evapotranspiration(PET),with precipitation increasing by 11.3%and 26.1%,and PET increasing by 3.2%and 4.9%,respectively,by the end of the century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.These changes are projected to result in increased annual streamflow at all stations,notably at the basin’s outlet(Pyay station)compared to the baseline period(with an increase of 16.1%and 37.0%at the end of the 21st century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively).Seasonal analysis for Pyay station forecasts an in-crease in dry-season streamflow by 31.3%-48.9%and 22.5%-76.3%under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively,and an increase in wet-season streamflow by 5.8%-12.6%and 2.8%-33.3%,respectively.Moreover,the magnitude and frequency of flood events are pre-dicted to escalate,potentially impacting hydropower production and food security significantly.This research outlines the hydrological response to future climate change during the 21st century and offers a scientific basis for the water resource management strategies by decision-makers.展开更多
Considering phase changes associated with a high-temperature molten material cooled down from the outside,this work presents an improvement of the modelling and the numerical simulation of such processes for an applic...Considering phase changes associated with a high-temperature molten material cooled down from the outside,this work presents an improvement of the modelling and the numerical simulation of such processes for an application pertaining to the safety of light water nuclear reactors.Postulating a core meltdown accident,the behaviour of the core melt(aka corium)into a steel vessel is of tremendous importance when evaluating the vessel integrity.Evaluating correctly the heat fluxes requires the numerical simulation of the interaction between the liquid material and its solid counterpart which forms during the solidification process,but also may melt back.To simulate this configuration,encoun-tered in various industrial applications,one considers a bi-phase model constituted by a liquid phase in contact and interaction with its solid phase.The liquid phase may solidify in presence of low energetic source,while the solid phase may melt due to an intense heat flux from the high-temperature liquid.In the frame of the in-house legacy code,several simplifying assumptions(0D multi-layer discretization,instantaneous heat transfer via a quadratic temperature profile in solids)are made for the modelling of such phase changes.In the present work,these shortcomings are illustrated and further overcome by solving a 2D heat conduction model in the solid by a mixed Raviart-Thomas finite element method coupled to the liquid phase due to heat and mass exchanges through Stefan condition.The liquid phase is modeled with a 0D multi-layer approach.The 0D-liquid and 2D-solid mod-els are coupled by a Stefan like phase change interface model.Several sanity checks are performed to assess the validity of the approach on 1D and 2D academical configurations for which exact or reference solutions are available.Then more advanced situations(genu-ine multi-dimensional phase changes and an"industrial-like scenario")are simulated to verify the appropriate behavior of the obtained coupled simulation scheme.展开更多
Changes of air–sea coupling in the North Atlantic Ocean over the 20 th century are investigated using reanalysis data,climate model simulations, and observational data. It is found that the ocean-to-atmosphere feedba...Changes of air–sea coupling in the North Atlantic Ocean over the 20 th century are investigated using reanalysis data,climate model simulations, and observational data. It is found that the ocean-to-atmosphere feedback over the North Atlantic is significantly intensified in the second half of the 20 th century. This coupled feedback is characterized by the association between the summer North Atlantic Horseshoe(NAH) SST anomalies and the following winter North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO). The intensification is likely associated with the enhancement of the North Atlantic storm tracks as well as the NAH SST anomalies. Our study also reveals that most IPCC AR4 climate models fail to capture the observed NAO/NAH coupled feedback.展开更多
Twenty orthosequences and their corresponding sea-level change (SLC) cycles have been recognized in the Devonian overlying the Caledonian unconformity, of which 9, 5.5 and 5.5 occurred in the Lower, Middle and Upper D...Twenty orthosequences and their corresponding sea-level change (SLC) cycles have been recognized in the Devonian overlying the Caledonian unconformity, of which 9, 5.5 and 5.5 occurred in the Lower, Middle and Upper Devonian respectively. They can be grouped into 4 orthosequence sets, in which the maximum flooding surfaces lie in the sulcutus Zone (D12), perbonus Zone (D13), Middle and Upper varcus Zone (D22) and gigas Zone (D21) respectively. Four instant palaeogeographical reconstructions of South China have been made in the Emsian and Givetian. Devonian sea-level change rhythms of South China can be divided into 3 categories: the autorhythmic, the worldwide and regional allorhythmic, and the coupling-rhythmic. They developed respectively in the Famennian, Pragian, Eifelian, Lochkovian, Emsian, Givetian, Frasnian and the F / F (between the Frasnian and Famennian) event. The cause of the worldwide allorhythmic SLC of the Pragian and Eifelian under comparatively dry, warm and tranquil conditions may be related to the pulsating expanding and contracting of the oceanic basin volume or the earth volume pulsation, rather than the common glaciation and plate tectonism. The coupling-rhythmic SLC related to the F/ F event is a sensitive indicator of the interaction between terrestrial and extraterrestrial factors, and coordinated action among the earth-spheres.展开更多
Assessing runoff changes is of great importance especially its responses to the projected future climate change on local scale basins because such analyses are generally done on global and regional scales which may le...Assessing runoff changes is of great importance especially its responses to the projected future climate change on local scale basins because such analyses are generally done on global and regional scales which may lead to generalized conclusions rather than specific ones.Climate change affected the runoff variation in the past in the upper Daqinghe Basin,however,the climate was mainly considered uncertain and still needs further studies,especially its future impacts on runoff for better water resources management and planning.Integrated with a set of climate simulations,a daily conceptual hydrological model(MIKE11-NAM)was applied to assess the impact of climate change on runoff conditions in the Daomaguan,Fuping and Zijingguan basins in the upper Daqinghe Basin.Historical hydrological data(2008–2017)were used to evaluate the applicability of the MIKE11-NAM model.After bias correction,future projected climate change and its impacts on runoff(2025–2054)were analysed and compared to the baseline period(1985–2014)under three shared social economic pathways(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5)scenarios from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)simulations.The MIKE-11 NAM model was applicable in all three Basins,with both R^(2)and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficients greater than 0.6 at daily scale for both calibration(2009–2011)and validation(2012–2017)periods,respectively.Although uncertainties remain,temperature and precipitation are projected to increase compared to the baseline where higher increases in precipitation and temperature are projected to occur under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,respectively in all the basins.Precipitation changes will range between 12%–19%whereas temperature change will be 2.0℃–2.5℃ under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,respectively.In addition,higher warming is projected to occur in colder months than in warmer months.Overall,the runoff of these three basins is projected to respond to projected climate changes differently because runoff is projected to only increase in the Fuping basin under SSP2-4.5 whereas decreases in both Daomaguan and Zijingguan Basins under all scenarios.This study’s findings could be important when setting mitigation strategies for climate change and water resources management.展开更多
Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover chang...Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover change(LUCC)is crucial for guiding the healthy and sustainable development of coastal zones.System dynamic(SD)-future land use simulation(FLUS)model,a coupled simulation model,was developed to analyze land use dynamics in China's coastal zone.This model encompasses five scenarios,namely,SSP1-RCP2.6(A),SSP2-RCP4.5(B),SSP3-RCP4.5(C),SSP4-RCP4.5(D),and SSP5-RCP8.5(E).The SD model simulates land use demand on an annual basis up to the year 2100.Subsequently,the FLUS model determines the spatial distribution of land use for the near term(2035),medium term(2050),and long term(2100).Results reveal a slowing trend in land use changes in China's coastal zone from 2000–2020.Among these changes,the expansion rate of construction land was the highest and exhibited an annual decrease.By 2100,land use predictions exhibit high accuracy,and notable differences are observed in trends across scenarios.In summary,the expansion of production,living,and ecological spaces toward the sea remains prominent.Scenario A emphasizes reduced land resource dependence,benefiting ecological land protection.Scenario B witnesses an intensified expansion of artificial wetlands.Scenario C sees substantial land needs for living and production,while Scenario D shows coastal forest and grassland shrinkage.Lastly,in Scenario E,the conflict between humans and land intensifies.This study presents pertinent recommendations for the future development,utilization,and management of coastal areas in China.The research contributes valuable scientific support for informed,long-term strategic decision making within coastal regions.展开更多
Climate warming profoundly affects hydrological changes,agricultural production,and human society.Arid and semi-arid areas of China are currently displaying a marked trend of warming and wetting.The Chinese Tianshan M...Climate warming profoundly affects hydrological changes,agricultural production,and human society.Arid and semi-arid areas of China are currently displaying a marked trend of warming and wetting.The Chinese Tianshan Mountains(CTM)have a high climate sensitivity,rendering the region particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate warming.In this study,we used monthly average temperature and monthly precipitation data from the CN05.1 gridded dataset(1961-2014)and 24 global climate models(GCMs)of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)to assess the applicability of the CMIP6 GCMs in the CTM at the regional scale.Based on this,we conducted a systematic review of the interannual trends,dry-wet transitions(based on the standardized precipitation index(SPI)),and spatial distribution patterns of climate change in the CTM during 1961-2014.We further projected future temperature and precipitation changes over three terms(near-term(2021-2040),mid-term(2041-2060),and long-term(2081-2100))relative to the historical period(1961-2014)under four shared socio-economic pathway(SSP)scenarios(i.e.,SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5).It was found that the CTM had experienced significant warming and wetting from 1961 to 2014,and will also experience warming in the future(2021-2100).Substantial warming in 1997 was captured by both the CN05.1 derived from interpolating meteorological station data and the multi-model ensemble(MME)from the CMIP6 GCMs.The MME simulation results indicated an apparent wetting in 2008,which occurred later than the wetting observed from the CN05.1 in 1989.The GCMs generally underestimated spring temperature and overestimated both winter temperature and spring precipitation in the CTM.Warming and wetting are more rapid in the northern part of the CTM.By the end of the 21st century,all the four SSP scenarios project warmer and wetter conditions in the CTM with multiple dry-wet transitions.However,the rise in precipitation fails to counterbalance the drought induced by escalating temperature in the future,so the nature of the drought in the CTM will not change at all.Additionally,the projected summer precipitation shows negative correlation with the radiative forcing.This study holds practical implications for the awareness of climate change and subsequent research in the CTM.展开更多
Coupling within fluvial systems relates to the connectivity between the various components of the system. It can be viewed at several scales from local scales of hillslopetochannel and reachtoreach coupling, to larger...Coupling within fluvial systems relates to the connectivity between the various components of the system. It can be viewed at several scales from local scales of hillslopetochannel and reachtoreach coupling, to larger scales of zonal coupling between the major functional zones of the fluvial system, and to the scale of regional coupling. Coupling influences how the system responds to environmental change and how the effects of environmental change are propagated through the system. This paper provides a review, based largely on previously published work, of the coupling concept, and how the effective temporal scales vary with the spatial scale of coupling. Local scale coupling is considered through the hillslope to channel coupling in the Howgill Fells, northwest England, observed over a 30year monitoring period, together with examples from badlands in Spain, and reachtoreach coupling on the River Dane, northwest England. At the zonal scale the relative influence of climatic and baselevel change on coupling through dryregion alluvial fans is considered on fan systems in Spain, Nevada, and UAE/Oman. For large scale regional coupling, the response of the Tabernas basin, southeast Spain to tectonic uplift, is examined. The factors influencing coupling mechanisms vary with temporal and spatial scales. At the hillslopetochannel scale the significant factors are the magnitude and frequency characteristics of sediment generation and removal mechanisms within the context of progressive morphological change. Effective timescales range from the individual event to decadal timescales. At the zonal scale, that of alluvial fans, the significant factors are climatic change, and particularly in the appropriate morphological setting, baselevel change. Effective timescales are of the order of hundreds to thousands of years. At the regional scale, the response to tectonic uplift may take >100 ka to be transmitted through the drainage basin.展开更多
Diagnostic studies have been done of the seasonal and interdecadal variations of the coupling patterns for the air-sea interactions in the northern pacific region.by using 500-hpa geotential hight field of the Norther...Diagnostic studies have been done of the seasonal and interdecadal variations of the coupling patterns for the air-sea interactions in the northern pacific region.by using 500-hpa geotential hight field of the Northern Hemisphere and monthly mean SST field of northern Pacific Ocean(1951~1995) and with the aid of the Singular Value Decomposition(SVD) technique.The results show that:(1) The distribution patterns of SVD,which link with the E1 Nino(or La Nina) events,are important in the interaction between the atmosphere and ocean while the atmosphere,coupling with it ,varies like the PNA teleconnection does.The coupling of airsea interactions is the highest in the winter(January) ,specifically linking the E1 Nino event with the PNA pattern in the geopotential height field.Of the four seasons,summer has the poorest coupling when the 500-hPa geopotential height field corresponding to the La nina event displays patterns similar to the East Asian-Pacific one(PJ).The spring and autumn are both transitional and the coupling is less thght in the autumn than in the spring.(2) Significant changes have taken place around 1976 in the pattern of air-sea coupling,with the year's winter having intensified PNA pattern of 500-hPa winter geopotential height field,deepened Aleutian low that moves southeast and the summer following it having outstanding PJ pattern of 500-hPa geopotential height field,which is not so before 1976.展开更多
In this paper, a coupled model was used to estimate the responses of soil moisture and net primary production of vegetation(NPP) to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. The analysis uses three ...In this paper, a coupled model was used to estimate the responses of soil moisture and net primary production of vegetation(NPP) to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. The analysis uses three experiments simulated by the second-generation Earth System Model(CanESM2) of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis(CCCma), which are part of the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5). The authors focus on the magnitude and evolution of responses in soil moisture and NPP using simulations modeled by CanESM, in which the individual effects of increasing CO2 concentration and climate change and their combined effect are separately accounted for. When considering only the single effect of climate change, the soil moisture and NPP have a linear trend of 0.03 kg m–2 yr–1 and –0.14 gC m–2 yr–2, respectively. However, such a reduction in the global NPP results from the decrease of NPP at lower latitudes and in the Southern Hemisphere, although increased NPP has been shown in high northern latitudes. The largest negative trend is located in the Amazon basin at –1.79 gC m–2 yr–2. For the individual effect of increasing CO2 concentration, both soil moisture and NPP show increases, with an elevated linear trend of 0.02 kg m–2 yr–1 and 0.84 gC m–2 yr–2, respectively. Most regions show an increasing NPP, except Alaska. For the combined effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 and climate change, the increased soil moisture and NPP exhibit a linear trend of 0.04 kg m–2 yr–1 and 0.83 gC m–2 yr–2 at a global scale. In the Amazon basin, the higher reduction in soil moisture is illustrated by the model, with a linear trend of –0.39 kg m–2 yr–1, for the combined effect. Such a change in soil moisture is caused by a weakened Walker circulation simulated by this coupled model, compared with the single effect of increasing CO2 concentration(experiment M2), and a consequence of the reduction in NPP is also shown in this area, with a linear trend of-0.16 gC m-2 yr-2.展开更多
基金Under the auspices of the Yunnan Scientist Workstation on International River Research of Daming He(No.KXJGZS-2019-005)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42201040)+1 种基金National Key Research and Development Project of China(No.2016YFA0601601)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2023M733006)。
文摘Within the context of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor(CMEC),the Dulong-Ir-rawaddy(Ayeyarwady)River,an international river among China,India and Myanmar,plays a significant role as both a valuable hydro-power resource and an essential ecological passageway.However,the water resources and security exhibit a high degree of vulnerabil-ity to climate change impacts.This research evaluates climate impacts on the hydrology of the Dulong-Irrawaddy River Basin(DIRB)by using a physical-based hydrologic model.We crafted future climate scenarios using the three latest global climate models(GCMs)from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6)under two shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5)for the near(2025-2049),mid(2050-2074),and far future(2075-2099).The regional model using MIKE SHE based on historical hydrologic processes was developed to further project future streamflow,demonstrating reliable performance in streamflow simulations with a val-idation Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency(NSE)of 0.72.Results showed that climate change projections showed increases in the annual precip-itation and potential evapotranspiration(PET),with precipitation increasing by 11.3%and 26.1%,and PET increasing by 3.2%and 4.9%,respectively,by the end of the century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.These changes are projected to result in increased annual streamflow at all stations,notably at the basin’s outlet(Pyay station)compared to the baseline period(with an increase of 16.1%and 37.0%at the end of the 21st century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively).Seasonal analysis for Pyay station forecasts an in-crease in dry-season streamflow by 31.3%-48.9%and 22.5%-76.3%under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively,and an increase in wet-season streamflow by 5.8%-12.6%and 2.8%-33.3%,respectively.Moreover,the magnitude and frequency of flood events are pre-dicted to escalate,potentially impacting hydropower production and food security significantly.This research outlines the hydrological response to future climate change during the 21st century and offers a scientific basis for the water resource management strategies by decision-makers.
基金funded by CEA,EDF and Framatomefinancial and scientific support of CEA Cadarache.
文摘Considering phase changes associated with a high-temperature molten material cooled down from the outside,this work presents an improvement of the modelling and the numerical simulation of such processes for an application pertaining to the safety of light water nuclear reactors.Postulating a core meltdown accident,the behaviour of the core melt(aka corium)into a steel vessel is of tremendous importance when evaluating the vessel integrity.Evaluating correctly the heat fluxes requires the numerical simulation of the interaction between the liquid material and its solid counterpart which forms during the solidification process,but also may melt back.To simulate this configuration,encoun-tered in various industrial applications,one considers a bi-phase model constituted by a liquid phase in contact and interaction with its solid phase.The liquid phase may solidify in presence of low energetic source,while the solid phase may melt due to an intense heat flux from the high-temperature liquid.In the frame of the in-house legacy code,several simplifying assumptions(0D multi-layer discretization,instantaneous heat transfer via a quadratic temperature profile in solids)are made for the modelling of such phase changes.In the present work,these shortcomings are illustrated and further overcome by solving a 2D heat conduction model in the solid by a mixed Raviart-Thomas finite element method coupled to the liquid phase due to heat and mass exchanges through Stefan condition.The liquid phase is modeled with a 0D multi-layer approach.The 0D-liquid and 2D-solid mod-els are coupled by a Stefan like phase change interface model.Several sanity checks are performed to assess the validity of the approach on 1D and 2D academical configurations for which exact or reference solutions are available.Then more advanced situations(genu-ine multi-dimensional phase changes and an"industrial-like scenario")are simulated to verify the appropriate behavior of the obtained coupled simulation scheme.
基金supported by a National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) Innovation Team Project (Grant No. 40921004)the Fundamental Research Funds for Central Universities (Grant No. 0900841261005)
文摘Changes of air–sea coupling in the North Atlantic Ocean over the 20 th century are investigated using reanalysis data,climate model simulations, and observational data. It is found that the ocean-to-atmosphere feedback over the North Atlantic is significantly intensified in the second half of the 20 th century. This coupled feedback is characterized by the association between the summer North Atlantic Horseshoe(NAH) SST anomalies and the following winter North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO). The intensification is likely associated with the enhancement of the North Atlantic storm tracks as well as the NAH SST anomalies. Our study also reveals that most IPCC AR4 climate models fail to capture the observed NAO/NAH coupled feedback.
基金Jointly supported by the Special Research Foundation for Doctorate Programme of CollegesUniversities of the State Education Commission of China (No. 9549111), Fundamental Research Project from the State Commission of Science and Technology of ChinaNa
文摘Twenty orthosequences and their corresponding sea-level change (SLC) cycles have been recognized in the Devonian overlying the Caledonian unconformity, of which 9, 5.5 and 5.5 occurred in the Lower, Middle and Upper Devonian respectively. They can be grouped into 4 orthosequence sets, in which the maximum flooding surfaces lie in the sulcutus Zone (D12), perbonus Zone (D13), Middle and Upper varcus Zone (D22) and gigas Zone (D21) respectively. Four instant palaeogeographical reconstructions of South China have been made in the Emsian and Givetian. Devonian sea-level change rhythms of South China can be divided into 3 categories: the autorhythmic, the worldwide and regional allorhythmic, and the coupling-rhythmic. They developed respectively in the Famennian, Pragian, Eifelian, Lochkovian, Emsian, Givetian, Frasnian and the F / F (between the Frasnian and Famennian) event. The cause of the worldwide allorhythmic SLC of the Pragian and Eifelian under comparatively dry, warm and tranquil conditions may be related to the pulsating expanding and contracting of the oceanic basin volume or the earth volume pulsation, rather than the common glaciation and plate tectonism. The coupling-rhythmic SLC related to the F/ F event is a sensitive indicator of the interaction between terrestrial and extraterrestrial factors, and coordinated action among the earth-spheres.
基金Under the auspices of National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2021YFD1700500)Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province,China(No.D2021503001,D2021503011)。
文摘Assessing runoff changes is of great importance especially its responses to the projected future climate change on local scale basins because such analyses are generally done on global and regional scales which may lead to generalized conclusions rather than specific ones.Climate change affected the runoff variation in the past in the upper Daqinghe Basin,however,the climate was mainly considered uncertain and still needs further studies,especially its future impacts on runoff for better water resources management and planning.Integrated with a set of climate simulations,a daily conceptual hydrological model(MIKE11-NAM)was applied to assess the impact of climate change on runoff conditions in the Daomaguan,Fuping and Zijingguan basins in the upper Daqinghe Basin.Historical hydrological data(2008–2017)were used to evaluate the applicability of the MIKE11-NAM model.After bias correction,future projected climate change and its impacts on runoff(2025–2054)were analysed and compared to the baseline period(1985–2014)under three shared social economic pathways(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5)scenarios from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)simulations.The MIKE-11 NAM model was applicable in all three Basins,with both R^(2)and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficients greater than 0.6 at daily scale for both calibration(2009–2011)and validation(2012–2017)periods,respectively.Although uncertainties remain,temperature and precipitation are projected to increase compared to the baseline where higher increases in precipitation and temperature are projected to occur under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,respectively in all the basins.Precipitation changes will range between 12%–19%whereas temperature change will be 2.0℃–2.5℃ under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,respectively.In addition,higher warming is projected to occur in colder months than in warmer months.Overall,the runoff of these three basins is projected to respond to projected climate changes differently because runoff is projected to only increase in the Fuping basin under SSP2-4.5 whereas decreases in both Daomaguan and Zijingguan Basins under all scenarios.This study’s findings could be important when setting mitigation strategies for climate change and water resources management.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.42176221,41901133)Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.XDA19060205)Seed project of Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.YIC-E3518907)。
文摘Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover change(LUCC)is crucial for guiding the healthy and sustainable development of coastal zones.System dynamic(SD)-future land use simulation(FLUS)model,a coupled simulation model,was developed to analyze land use dynamics in China's coastal zone.This model encompasses five scenarios,namely,SSP1-RCP2.6(A),SSP2-RCP4.5(B),SSP3-RCP4.5(C),SSP4-RCP4.5(D),and SSP5-RCP8.5(E).The SD model simulates land use demand on an annual basis up to the year 2100.Subsequently,the FLUS model determines the spatial distribution of land use for the near term(2035),medium term(2050),and long term(2100).Results reveal a slowing trend in land use changes in China's coastal zone from 2000–2020.Among these changes,the expansion rate of construction land was the highest and exhibited an annual decrease.By 2100,land use predictions exhibit high accuracy,and notable differences are observed in trends across scenarios.In summary,the expansion of production,living,and ecological spaces toward the sea remains prominent.Scenario A emphasizes reduced land resource dependence,benefiting ecological land protection.Scenario B witnesses an intensified expansion of artificial wetlands.Scenario C sees substantial land needs for living and production,while Scenario D shows coastal forest and grassland shrinkage.Lastly,in Scenario E,the conflict between humans and land intensifies.This study presents pertinent recommendations for the future development,utilization,and management of coastal areas in China.The research contributes valuable scientific support for informed,long-term strategic decision making within coastal regions.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42261026,41971094,42161025)the Gansu Provincial Science and Technology Program(22ZD6FA005)+1 种基金the Higher Education Innovation Foundation of Education Department of Gansu Province(2022A041)the open foundation of Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Utilization in Arid Zone(XJYS0907-2023-01).
文摘Climate warming profoundly affects hydrological changes,agricultural production,and human society.Arid and semi-arid areas of China are currently displaying a marked trend of warming and wetting.The Chinese Tianshan Mountains(CTM)have a high climate sensitivity,rendering the region particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate warming.In this study,we used monthly average temperature and monthly precipitation data from the CN05.1 gridded dataset(1961-2014)and 24 global climate models(GCMs)of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)to assess the applicability of the CMIP6 GCMs in the CTM at the regional scale.Based on this,we conducted a systematic review of the interannual trends,dry-wet transitions(based on the standardized precipitation index(SPI)),and spatial distribution patterns of climate change in the CTM during 1961-2014.We further projected future temperature and precipitation changes over three terms(near-term(2021-2040),mid-term(2041-2060),and long-term(2081-2100))relative to the historical period(1961-2014)under four shared socio-economic pathway(SSP)scenarios(i.e.,SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5).It was found that the CTM had experienced significant warming and wetting from 1961 to 2014,and will also experience warming in the future(2021-2100).Substantial warming in 1997 was captured by both the CN05.1 derived from interpolating meteorological station data and the multi-model ensemble(MME)from the CMIP6 GCMs.The MME simulation results indicated an apparent wetting in 2008,which occurred later than the wetting observed from the CN05.1 in 1989.The GCMs generally underestimated spring temperature and overestimated both winter temperature and spring precipitation in the CTM.Warming and wetting are more rapid in the northern part of the CTM.By the end of the 21st century,all the four SSP scenarios project warmer and wetter conditions in the CTM with multiple dry-wet transitions.However,the rise in precipitation fails to counterbalance the drought induced by escalating temperature in the future,so the nature of the drought in the CTM will not change at all.Additionally,the projected summer precipitation shows negative correlation with the radiative forcing.This study holds practical implications for the awareness of climate change and subsequent research in the CTM.
文摘Coupling within fluvial systems relates to the connectivity between the various components of the system. It can be viewed at several scales from local scales of hillslopetochannel and reachtoreach coupling, to larger scales of zonal coupling between the major functional zones of the fluvial system, and to the scale of regional coupling. Coupling influences how the system responds to environmental change and how the effects of environmental change are propagated through the system. This paper provides a review, based largely on previously published work, of the coupling concept, and how the effective temporal scales vary with the spatial scale of coupling. Local scale coupling is considered through the hillslope to channel coupling in the Howgill Fells, northwest England, observed over a 30year monitoring period, together with examples from badlands in Spain, and reachtoreach coupling on the River Dane, northwest England. At the zonal scale the relative influence of climatic and baselevel change on coupling through dryregion alluvial fans is considered on fan systems in Spain, Nevada, and UAE/Oman. For large scale regional coupling, the response of the Tabernas basin, southeast Spain to tectonic uplift, is examined. The factors influencing coupling mechanisms vary with temporal and spatial scales. At the hillslopetochannel scale the significant factors are the magnitude and frequency characteristics of sediment generation and removal mechanisms within the context of progressive morphological change. Effective timescales range from the individual event to decadal timescales. At the zonal scale, that of alluvial fans, the significant factors are climatic change, and particularly in the appropriate morphological setting, baselevel change. Effective timescales are of the order of hundreds to thousands of years. At the regional scale, the response to tectonic uplift may take >100 ka to be transmitted through the drainage basin.
基金Research on the formation mechanism and prediction theories of major climatic calamities in China a first initiated project in the Development Plan for National Key Fundamental Research Natural Science Foundation of China (49575261) Natural Science Fo
文摘Diagnostic studies have been done of the seasonal and interdecadal variations of the coupling patterns for the air-sea interactions in the northern pacific region.by using 500-hpa geotential hight field of the Northern Hemisphere and monthly mean SST field of northern Pacific Ocean(1951~1995) and with the aid of the Singular Value Decomposition(SVD) technique.The results show that:(1) The distribution patterns of SVD,which link with the E1 Nino(or La Nina) events,are important in the interaction between the atmosphere and ocean while the atmosphere,coupling with it ,varies like the PNA teleconnection does.The coupling of airsea interactions is the highest in the winter(January) ,specifically linking the E1 Nino event with the PNA pattern in the geopotential height field.Of the four seasons,summer has the poorest coupling when the 500-hPa geopotential height field corresponding to the La nina event displays patterns similar to the East Asian-Pacific one(PJ).The spring and autumn are both transitional and the coupling is less thght in the autumn than in the spring.(2) Significant changes have taken place around 1976 in the pattern of air-sea coupling,with the year's winter having intensified PNA pattern of 500-hPa winter geopotential height field,deepened Aleutian low that moves southeast and the summer following it having outstanding PJ pattern of 500-hPa geopotential height field,which is not so before 1976.
基金supported by the project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41275082 and 41305070)the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA05110103)the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant Nos. KZCX2-EW-QN208 and 7-122158)
文摘In this paper, a coupled model was used to estimate the responses of soil moisture and net primary production of vegetation(NPP) to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. The analysis uses three experiments simulated by the second-generation Earth System Model(CanESM2) of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis(CCCma), which are part of the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5). The authors focus on the magnitude and evolution of responses in soil moisture and NPP using simulations modeled by CanESM, in which the individual effects of increasing CO2 concentration and climate change and their combined effect are separately accounted for. When considering only the single effect of climate change, the soil moisture and NPP have a linear trend of 0.03 kg m–2 yr–1 and –0.14 gC m–2 yr–2, respectively. However, such a reduction in the global NPP results from the decrease of NPP at lower latitudes and in the Southern Hemisphere, although increased NPP has been shown in high northern latitudes. The largest negative trend is located in the Amazon basin at –1.79 gC m–2 yr–2. For the individual effect of increasing CO2 concentration, both soil moisture and NPP show increases, with an elevated linear trend of 0.02 kg m–2 yr–1 and 0.84 gC m–2 yr–2, respectively. Most regions show an increasing NPP, except Alaska. For the combined effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 and climate change, the increased soil moisture and NPP exhibit a linear trend of 0.04 kg m–2 yr–1 and 0.83 gC m–2 yr–2 at a global scale. In the Amazon basin, the higher reduction in soil moisture is illustrated by the model, with a linear trend of –0.39 kg m–2 yr–1, for the combined effect. Such a change in soil moisture is caused by a weakened Walker circulation simulated by this coupled model, compared with the single effect of increasing CO2 concentration(experiment M2), and a consequence of the reduction in NPP is also shown in this area, with a linear trend of-0.16 gC m-2 yr-2.