Stability analysis of loose accumulation slopes under rainfall:case study of a high‑speed railway in Southwest China

The high and steep slopes along a high-speed railway in the mountainous area of Southwest China are mostly composed of loose accumulations of debris with large internal pores and poor stability,which can easily induce adverse geological disasters under rainfall conditions.To ensure the smooth construction of the high-speed railway and the subsequent safe operation,it is necessary to master the stability evolution process of the loose accumulation slope under rainfall.This article simulates rainfall using the finite element analysis software’s hydromechanical coupling module.The slope stability under various rainfall situations is calculated and analysed based on the strength reduction method.To validate the simulation results,a field monitoring system is established to study the deformation characteristics of the slope under rainfall.The results show that rainfall duration is the key factor affecting slope stability.Given a constant amount of rainfall,the stability of the slope decreases with increasing duration of rainfall.Moreover,when the amount and duration of rainfall are constant,continuous rainfall has a greater impact on slope stability than intermittent rainfall.The setting of the field retaining structures has a significant role in improving slope stability.The field monitoring data show that the slope is in the initial deformation stage and has good stability,which verifies the rationality of the numerical simulation method.The research results can provide some references for understanding the influence of rainfall on the stability of loose accumulation slopes along high-speed railways and establishing a monitoring system.

Radiative Effects on Torrential Rainfall during the Landfall of Typhoon Fitow(2013)

Cloud microphysical and rainfall responses to radiative processes are examined through analysis of cloud-resolving model sensitivity experiments of Typhoon Fitow（2013） during landfall.The budget analysis shows that the increase in the mean rainfall caused by the exclusion of radiative effects of water clouds corresponds to the decrease in accretion of raindrops by cloud ice in the presence of radiative effects of ice clouds,but the rainfall is insensitive to radiative effects of water clouds in the absence of radiative effects of ice clouds.The increases in the mean rainfall resulting from the removal of radiative effects of ice clouds correspond to the enhanced net condensation.The increases（decreases） in maximum rainfall caused by the exclusion of radiative effects of water clouds in the presence（absence） of radiative effects of ice clouds,or the removal of radiative effects of ice clouds in the presence（absence） of radiative effects of water clouds,correspond mainly to the enhancements（reductions） in net condensation.The mean rain rate is a product of rain intensity and fractional rainfall coverage.The radiation-induced difference in the mean rain rate is related to the difference in rain intensity.The radiation-induced difference in the maximum rain rate is associated with the difference in the fractional coverage of maximum rainfall.

Effects of Doubled Carbon Dioxide on Rainfall Responses to Radiative Processes of Water Clouds

The effects of doubled carbon dioxide on rainfall responses to radiative processes of water clouds are investigated in this study.Two groups of two-dimensional cloud-resolving model sensitivity experiments with regard to pre-summer heavy rainfall around the summer solstice and tropical rainfall around the winter solstice are conducted and their five-day averages over the model domain are analyzed.In the presence of radiative effects of ice clouds,doubled carbon dioxide changes pre-summer rainfall from the decrease associated with the enhanced atmospheric cooling to the increase associated with the enhanced infrared cooling as a result of the exclusion of radiative effects of water clouds.Doubled carbon dioxide leads to the reduction in tropical rainfall,caused by the removal of radiative effects of water clouds through the suppressed infrared cooling.In the absence of radiative effects of ice clouds,doubled carbon dioxide changes pre-summer rainfall from the increase associated with the strengthened atmospheric warming to the decrease associated with the weakened release of latent heat caused by the elimination of radiative effects of water clouds.The exclusion of radiative effects of water clouds increases tropical rainfall through the strengthened infrared cooling,which is insensitive to the change in carbon dioxide.

A Probabilistic Prediction Model for Heavy Rain-Caused Landslides in the Chongqing Region

Landslide （or rockslide） is a geological disaster that is mainly induced by strong precipitation, among a number of other natural inducing factors. Based on 1615 landslide cases, a statistical analysis is performed to find the relationship among the landslide occurrence time, rainfall 0 10 days ahead, and probability of landslides over the Chongqing region. The results show that 1） strong rainfall-caused landslides occur mainly on the day it rains or ] 2 days after the heavy rain, and as time goes on, the likelihood of the disaster reduces rapidly; 2） the heavier the rainfall, the closer the landslide time is to the precipitation time. A concept of ＂effective precipitation＂ is thus developed, and a categorical prediction model for heavy raincaused landslides is established. Tests show that for categories Ⅲ, Ⅳ, and Ⅴ landslides, the model forecast accuracy arrives at 29.9%, 75%, and 100%, respectively. This indicates that the categorized probabilistic prediction can serve as a warning for the landslide prevention and mitigation.