Development of Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Curves for Mumbai City, India

The change in rainfall pattern and intensity is becoming a great concern for hydrologic engineers and planners. Many parts of the world are experiencing extreme rainfall events such as experienced on 26th July 2005 in Mumbai, India. For the appropriate design and planning of urban drainage system in an area, Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) curves for given rainfall conditions are required. The aim of the present study is to derive the IDF curves for the rainfall in the Mumbai city, Maharashtra, India. Observed rainfall data from 1901 pertaining to Colaba and from 1951 of the Santacruz rain gauge stations in Mumbai are used in the present study to derive the IDF curves. Initially, the proposed IDF curves are derived using an empirical equation (Kothyari and Garde), by using probability distribution for annual maximum rainfall and then IDF curves are derived by modifying the equation. IDF curves developed by the modified equation gives good results in the changing hydrologic conditions and are compatible even with the extreme rainfall of 26th July 2005 in Mumbai.

Generic Method for Merging Satellite and Historical Ground Station Data to Design Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) Curves in Recordless Sub-Saharian Countries

The availability of long-term rainfall records is essential to conduct a serious frequency analysis in order to estimate the effective precipitation depth. The development of the process of elaboration of IDF (Intensity-Duration-Frequency) curves for a given location requires very precise data, at least with daily frequency, obtained through the use of rainfall records. The present study presents a method used to merge historical precipitation data with the latest data collected by satellite in order to perform graphs with IDF curves in places where rainfall records are scarce. The homogeneity of the data used is analyzed in order to guarantee its statistical utility and the frequency analysis was performed with the statistical distributions of Extreme Values Type I (Gumbel), Gamma, Pearson Type III and finally with Log-Pearson Type III, in order to verify which one of them applies better to the sites chosen for this analysis: the cities of Benguela and Lobito in the south of Angola. Daily rainfall data from the TRMM mission and historical daily data were used to derive the relationships between the maximum daily precipitation and the sub-daily precipitation values. From the observed daily data, techniques of disaggregation of the collected data were used, in order to generate a synthetic precipitation sequence with the extreme values in periods of time inferior to the daily one, with statistical properties similar to the registered data. Then IDF equations are established, with which the occasional storm depth is calculated for various return periods and various durations and, after them, the IDF curves are drawn for these two geographic stations.

Impact of Rainfall Temporal Heterogeneity on Relationship between Curve Number and Rainfall Depth in the Zagros Mountain Region,Iran

The impact of temporal variation of rainfall on the relationship between rainfall and catchment response is investigated in a catchment with high temporally variable rainfalls and a high percentage of permeable soils in the southwest of Iran.Twenty-nine storm events are classified into two classes, High Temporal heterogeneous(HT) and Low Temporal heterogeneous(LT) events using the variogram technique and the storm events of each class are analyzed to detect the relationship between Curve Number(CN) and rainfall depth. It is found that there is not a similar correlation between CN values and rainfall depths for both temporally variable classes, and hence, two different responses can be observed in the catchment according to rainfall temporal heterogeneities. For HT events, a complacent behavior is detected in which the CNs decline as rainfall depth increases while a different response, violent behavior, is observed for LT events in which the CNs rise and asymptotically approach a constant value with increasing storm size. This considerable difference between CN-P relationships derived from the two temporally variable classes of rainfall is attributed to the provocation of different runoff generation mechanisms, infiltration-excess and saturation-excess caused by rainfall temporal heterogeneities. Moreover, the results support the validity of variogram technique to classify storm events into two LT and HT classes.

A Rainfall Intensity-Duration Threshold for Mass Movement in Badulla, Sri Lanka

Mass movement in Sri Lanka is mainly triggered by heavy rainfall. International literature is rich of works defining rainfall intensity-duration models to identify the rainfall threshold for various types of Mass movement. However, studies have not focused to establish a relationship between intensity and duration of rainfall in Sri Lanka. Therefore, this study focused to establish rainfall intensity-duration models to identify the rainfall threshold for mass movements in Badulla district in Sri Lanka, where forty four (44) rainfall events that resulted in same number of landslides during the last three decades were considered. Results indicate the rainfall threshold relationship fits to the log linear model of the exponential function, I = α&#183D-β. The constructed I-D curve revealed that short duration (54 mm/h) in rainfall events can potentially trigger the landslide. However, long-duration (>8 h) and low-intensity (<25 mm/h) in rainfall events may also trigger mass movements in Badulla. As per the results, most mass movements occur during northeast monsoons and inter-monsoons. In general, higher mean rainfall intensities trigger the debris flows, while long-duration rainfall events can trigger both landslides and debris flow. When compared to Sri Lankan mass movements triggering threshold intensities are fairly higher than the global threshold values. It confirms that within Badulla, mass movements are triggered by very high intense and/or long duration rainfalls events only. Further, time series analysis of the rainfall events shows an upward trend of extreme rainfall events, which increased landslide occurring frequency in last six (6) years.

Effects of land-use pattern change on rainfall-runoff and runoff-sediment relations:a case study in Zichang watershed of the Loess Plateau of China

The purpose of this article is to identify the effect of land use pattern on rainfall runoff and runoff sediment relations in Zichang Watershed of the Loess Plateau. From 1986 to 1997, many farmlands changed into grassland or woodland, especially the farmland in steep slope positions or far away from the river. The change of land use pattern altered the rainfall runoff and runoff sediment relationships, and led to higher slope of trend curves(STCs) of annual rainfall runoff mass curve and runoff sediment mass curve in 1990s than that in 1980s. It is implied that more soil and water loss yielded in 1990s. In order to reduce soil loss, more attentions should be paid to land use pattern and some grass or other herbaceous filter strips should be built along rivers.

On relationship between curve numbers and phi indices

The curve number and phi(4)-index models each provide a simple one-parameter relationship between storm-event rainfall and runoff. It is shown that the curve number and 4-index models can both be used to segregate the rainfall hyetograph into initial abstraction, retention, and runoff amounts. However, the principal advantages of the 4-index model are that both rainfall distribution and duration can be explicitly taken into account in calculating runoff, and the 4 index is more physically based than the curve number. The quantitative relationship between the curve number and the 4 index is presented and validated with field measurements. Knowing the relationship between the curve number and the 4 index is useful in that it facilitates using the extensive database of curve numbers in the more realistic 4-index model in calculating a runoff hydrograph from a given rainfall hyetograph. It is demonstrated that conventional adjustments to curve numbers can be largely explained by variations in storm duration, which suggests that variable rainfall duration can possibly be an essential factor in accounting for deviations from the median curve number of a catchment.

Experimental investigation on rainfall infiltration and solute transport in layered porous and fractured media

Layered structures with upper porous and lower fractured media are widely distributed in the world. An experimen- tal investigation on rainfall infiltration and solute transport in such layered structures can provide the necessary foundation for effectively preventing and forecasting water bursting in mines, controlling contamination of mine water, and accomplishing ecological restoration of mining areas. A typical physical model of the layered structures with porous and fractured media was created in this study. Then rainfall infiltration experiments were conducted after salt solution was sprayed on the surface of the layered structure. The volumetric water content and concentration of chlorine ions at different specified positions along the profile of the experiment system were measured in real-time. The experimental results showed that the lower fractured media, with a considerably higher permeability than that of the upper porous media, had significant effects on preventing water infil- tration. Moreover, although the porous media were homogeneous statistically in the whole domain, spatial variations in the features of effluent concentrations with regards to time, or so called breakthrough curves, at various sampling points located at the horizontal plane in the porous media near the porous-fractured interface were observed, indicating the diversity of solute transport at small scales. Furthermore, the breakthrough curves of the outflow at the bottom, located beneath the underlying fractured rock, were able to capture and integrate features of the breakthrough curves of both the upper porous and fractured media, which exhibited multiple peaks, while the peak values were reduced one by one with time.

Orographic Effects on Extreme Rainfall at Different Durations: A Case Study in Campania Region (Southern Italy)

Long-term probabilistic prediction of extreme rainfall at the regional scale is a significant tool in the mitigation of hydro-geological disasters: it actually provides the starting point in the design of strategic hydraulic infrastructures and emergency plans. A crucial task of regional estimation of extreme rainfall is how to include the complex effects of orographic barriers in a mathematical model for Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves. Here, an analysis of how orography can affect extreme rainfall at different durations is presented for three orographic systems that are very relevant for hydrological risk assessment in the Campania Region in Southern Italy. Then, we introduce a power law model to link the amplification factor to the duration, thus allowing a simple and effective enhancement of the IDF model in mountainous areas.

Matrix Suction of Unsaturated Colluvium Slope Influenced by Rainfall and Plant Condition:A Case of Taiwan Huafan University

This study investigates the variation of matrix suction, water content and ground water level before and after the rainfall for the unsaturated colluvium slope in the campus of Fuafan University. The measuring devices including electrical matrix suction, water content and ground water level were set up in different surface of planting condition for each depth in real-time. It is observed that the matrix suction in the time from July to September is higher; however, when heavy rains caused by typhoon happened, matrix suction will drop rapidly. This variation is obvious in short grass zone and less clear in the broadleaftree zone. The maximum value in short grass zone, long grass zone and broadieaf tree zone at 2 m depth are 90.3, 68.2, 18.5 kPa, respectively. These results are expected to serve as a reference for the study of slope stability mechanisms.

Projected Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Relationships under Climate Change:A Case Study Thane City

Climate change is the most important factor to increase in short-duration high-intensity rainfall and consequent flooding.Intensity-Duration-Frequency(IDF)curves are commonly used tools in Stormwater design,so a method to derive future IDF curves including climate change effect could be necessary for the mainstreaming climate change information into storm water planning.The objective of the present study is to define a mechanism to reflect the effect of climate change into the projected rainfall IDF relationships.For this,the continuously observed hourly rainfall data from 1969 to 2018 were divided into five subgroups.Then the IDF curve of each subgroup is defined.The rainfall intensity for the next 30 years was then estimated using a linear regression model.The obtained result indicates that for the same duration and for the same return period,the rainfall intensity is likely to increase over time:17%(2019-2028),25%(2029-2038)and 32%(2039-2048).However,the findings presented in this paper will be useful for local authorities and decision makers in terms of improving stormwater design and future flood damage will be avoided.

基于低温-雨雪-冻雨综合强度指数的湖北省冰冻事件分型及灾损评估

低温雨雪冰冻是一种复合型气候事件,极端低温雨雪冰冻事件发生频率低,但造成的影响往往十分严重,开展低温雨雪冰冻事件演变特征研究对有效防御和减轻灾害影响具有重要意义。利用湖北省1981-2024年逐日气象观测资料,从低温、雨雪、冻雨等3个方面遴选指标,构建大范围持续低温雨雪冰冻事件综合评估模型;依据致灾因子类型、承灾体受灾特征对事件分型并排序;结合历史灾损数据分析了湖北省1981年以来大范围持续低温雨雪冰冻事件的致灾特征。结果表明:(1)近44 a湖北省共出现64次大范围持续低温雨雪冰冻事件,平均每年出现1.5次,1月出现频率最高,约占42%,其次是2月,约占34%。(2)湖北省大范围持续低温雨雪冰冻事件判别为六大分型,其中雨雪为主型占40%,低温雨雪冻雨型占31%,低温雨雪型占16%,其他类型共占13%,最强10次事件均属于低温雨雪冻雨型。(3)湖北省因低温雨雪冰冻灾害造成的直接经济损失总体呈增加趋势,但直接经济损失占GDP比重呈下降趋势。(4)湖北省大范围持续低温雨雪冰冻事件“综合强度指数-直接经济损失”相关关系呈幂指数分布,当事件综合强度指数超过1.85时,直接经济损失迅速增加。

考虑制动、荷载转移、纵坡的雨天小客车弯道安全车速模型

为了确定降雨环境下小客车弯道安全车速,基于瞬时轴线,建立了考虑纵坡、制动加速度及轮胎荷载转移的小客车侧滑速度模型;通过实地采集不同水膜厚度下的摩擦系数,得到了这二者之间的回归方程;结合摩擦椭圆原理,得到了考虑制动、驾驶人行为特性的综合摩擦系数分配方法;提出确定弯道车速的计算流程图,得到了不同降雨强度下以横向侧滑和纵向停车为指标的弯道车速。研究结果表明:当水膜厚度为0时,得到的侧滑速度值比点质量模型低35%左右;当水膜厚度小于2 mm时,摩擦系数降低最快,对车速影响最大;当水膜厚度大于2 mm时,摩擦系数变化幅度小且规律不明显;降雨对小客车弯道安全车速影响显著,仅小雨时就会导致车速平均降低15%左右;取一般最小半径计算时,不同降雨强度下的纵向停车速度均小于横向侧滑速度。

不同降雨工况条件下的崩滑地质灾害危险性评价

为针对性地采取预防、避让、治理等地质灾害防治与管控提供依据,完善在地质灾害危险性评价中将降雨作为单一诱发因子参与评价体系的弊端,在大雨、暴雨、大暴雨和特大暴雨4种不同降雨工况条件下进行了研究区崩滑地质灾害危险性评价。以云南省元阳县作为研究区域,以栅格单元作为评价单元,选取地貌类型、高程、坡度、坡向、曲率、工程地质岩组、土地利用类型、断层距离和河流距离9个评价因子,采用主观的层次分析法与客观的信息量模型相结合的加权信息量模型对元阳县崩塌、滑坡进行了地质灾害易发性评价。研究结果表明:基于自然间断点法元阳县域可分为低、中、高、极高4类易发区,4类易发区面积分别占元阳县面积的21.55%,35.46%,25.53%和17.16%。利用ROC曲线得出区划结果精度AUC值为0.812,表明区划结果很好。在易发性评价基础上,以年平均最大日降雨量为诱发因素,分别对大雨、暴雨、大暴雨和特大暴雨4种工况条件下的研究区进行了崩塌、滑坡地质灾害危险性评价,得到了大雨([25,50) mm)工况、暴雨([50,100) mm)工况、大暴雨([100,250]mm)工况和特大暴雨(>250 mm)工况4种条件下基于极值假设的研究区崩滑地质灾害危险性评价结果,并对不同降雨工况条件下的地质灾害危险性评价结果进行了对比分析,确定了地质灾害危险性评价结果在不同降雨条件下的空间合理性。通过与实际调查结果的对比表明,4种不同降雨工况条件下的崩滑地质灾害危险性评价结果与实际高度吻合,说明评价结果具有较高的可靠性与合理性。

降雨空间分辨率对城市内涝模拟敏感性研究

为研究降雨空间分辨率对城市内涝模拟的影响规律以及一、二维耦合的城市雨洪模型的敏感性降雨空间分辨率,本研究选取西安市小寨片区为研究区,以西安市气象局提供的3场降雨为基础,采用空间插值算法获取5种降雨(0.2、0.5、1.0、2.0和4.0 km)空间分辨率,引入洛伦兹曲线、基尼系数判断不同降雨空间分辨率的不均匀程度,驱动一、二维耦合的城市雨洪模型进行模拟分析。结果表明,3场降雨0.5 km降雨空间分辨率对应的基尼系数分别为0.163、0.201、0.165,评价结果均为均匀分布。随着降雨空间分辨率的降低,基尼系数逐渐减小,峰值积水面积相对误差、内涝积水水量相对变化范围、内涝淹没水深相对变化范围均逐渐增大。对于这3个水力要素评价指标,降雨空间分辨率为0.5 km对应的模拟误差最小,且该降雨空间分辨率为敏感性降雨空间分辨率。

山区既有线降雨预警曲面研究

对某山区既有线路基边坡溜坍风险点的地形特征以及降雨特征展开调研,得到该线路路堑边坡典型参数;基于提高多种致灾降雨类型条件下的预警成功率现实要求,提出以有效累积降雨量、时激发降雨量、降雨历时作为降雨预警空间建立降雨预警曲面;运用2012—2019年降雨数据统计分析确定了适用于该线路溜坍病害的降雨预警曲面参数,对比分析了相同区段内降雨预警曲面与传统I‐D降雨预警曲线的预警效果,并采用2020年降雨数据对该降雨预警曲面进行了验证。结果表明:应用降雨预警曲面可对山区既有铁路溜坍病害进行有效预警,预警成功率达到90%。

基于洛伦茨曲线的降雨时间分布均匀度变化

本文提出了基于洛伦茨曲线的降雨时间分布均匀度变化方法,为新疆农耕提供降雨分布数据。该方法以洛伦茨曲线原理为基础,依据降雨时间分布均匀度基尼系数和洛伦茨不对称系数指标,建立了降雨时间分布均匀度评价模型。以新疆作为研究对象,研究结果表明:新疆在2006年、2016年和2018年的降雨时间分布基尼系数较大,其降雨时间分布不够均匀。

降雨环境下公路超高段优化过渡设计方法研究

针对降雨环境下高等级公路超高过渡段行车安全的问题,对高等级公路超高过渡段的优化过渡设计方法进行研究。依托343国道泗阳来安至众兴段工程,采用纬地道路设计软件进行降雨模拟,对比分析三次曲线超高过渡方式与线性超高过渡方式分别在不同降雨条件、纵坡和过渡段长度等因素影响下的路面积水状况。结果表明:随着降雨强度和过渡段长度的增加,超高过渡段外侧路面积水情况将会加重,而纵坡坡度的增加,更有利于路面积水沿着纵坡方向排出,为此,尽量设计较大的纵坡坡度以及较短的过渡段长度更有利于超高过渡段路面的排水;纵坡和超高过渡段较小时路面最大水膜厚度的位置大多出现在最外侧车道,随着纵坡和超高过渡段的增加,路面最大水膜厚度位置逐渐向中央分隔带边缘线移动;一般而言,由于三次曲线超高过渡方式在横坡为零附近超高渐变率较大,更有利于路面排水,因此,该过渡方式的行车安全性优于线性超高过渡方式。

容县2010年6月滑坡灾害降雨阈值研究

大暴雨常引起群发性滑坡灾害的发生,对大暴雨引起的滑坡进行预警显得尤为重要,而确定诱发群发性滑坡的降雨阈值是预警的关键。在容县2010年6月初暴雨及其诱发的滑坡数据基础上,分析降雨和滑坡发生数量的相关性;采用降雨强度-降雨历时模型的统计分析方法,建立不同滑坡发生概率的降雨强度-降雨历时阈值线,且用ROC方法对阈值线进行检验。研究结果表明:滑坡发生数量和降雨量相关性为0.507;采用ROC方法分析得到滑坡发生概率为10%、50%、90%,阈值线的准确率分别为0.70、0.75、0.39,漏报率分别为0.05、0.23、0.93,误报率分别为0.75、0.29、0.04;综合以上指标,将50%阈值线作为研究区的阈值线,并进一步分析该线在不同日数下诱发滑坡的降雨阈值,作为容县群发性降雨型滑坡灾害预警分析。

基于降雨强度-历时评价边坡稳定性--以安徽省3个边坡为例

为了探究降雨条件对边坡稳定性的影响,确定降雨阈值曲线,利用FLAC 2D 7.0数值模拟软件对安徽省3个小型边坡进行饱和-非饱和渗流及稳定性分析,获取了边坡安全系数随降雨强度和历时的变化趋势。边坡监测位置处孔隙水压力与饱和度的变化结果显示:降雨对边坡的影响是有限的,降雨历时越长,极限降雨强度越小并趋于稳定,边坡趋于饱和,此时安全系数达到最小值,后续降雨对边坡安全系数影响很小;为确保安全,假设临界安全系数为1.15,对应降雨强度为临界降雨强度,降雨历时越长,临界降雨强度越小并趋于稳定,3个边坡临界降雨强度趋于稳定时分别为13、12和16 mm·d-1,对应的降雨历时分别为5、9和12 d,表明前期降雨对边坡稳定性影响很大。利用这3个边坡的临界降雨强度数据进行降雨阈值曲线拟合,并以435组安徽省2008~2022年历史灾害降雨数据验证该降雨阈值曲线。结果表明:95%以上的灾害数据点可以被该降雨阈值曲线预测。

不同土壤湿度和雨强下径流曲线模型的改进

前期土壤湿度条件和降雨强度是影响径流曲线(SCS-CN)模型径流量预测精度的重要因素。分析不同流域下二者对SCS-CN模型性能的影响,对提高模型预测精度至关重要。基于5个半干旱半湿润和湿润流域的降雨径流资料,利用偏相关分析和K-均值聚类改进SCS-CN模型。结果表明:在重新划分前期土壤湿度条件区间后,模型预测能力大幅度提升,有效降低模型平均偏差,纳什效率系数平均提高42.8%。基于最大10 min雨强对SCS-CN模型改进后,纳什效率系数得到一定提高,且半干旱半湿润流域的提升幅度略大于湿润流域。改进的模型在研究流域都取得较好的效果,平均偏差均低于7 mm;除呈村流域非汛期外纳什效率系数均达到0.93,平均提升89%;均方根误差平均降低29.2 mm。