期刊文献+
共找到1篇文章
< 1 >
每页显示 20 50 100
Early Flood Warning for Linyi Watershed by the GRAPES/XXT Model Using TIGGE Data 被引量:2
1
作者 徐精文 张万昌 +2 位作者 郑子彦 矫梅燕 陈静 《Acta meteorologica Sinica》 SCIE 2012年第1期103-111,共9页
Early and effective flood warning is essential for reducing loss of life and economic damage. Three global ensemble weather prediction systems of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), the European Centre fo... Early and effective flood warning is essential for reducing loss of life and economic damage. Three global ensemble weather prediction systems of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in THORPEX (The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) In- teractive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) archive are used in this research to drive the Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System (GRAPES) to produce 6-h lead time forecasts. The output (precipita- tion, air temperature, humidity, and pressure) in turn drives a hydrological model XXT (the first X stands for Xinanjiang, the second X stands for hybrid, and T stands for TOPMODEL), the hybrid model that combines the TOPMODEL (a topography based hydrological model) and the Xinanjiang model, for a case study of a flood event that lasted from 18 to 20 July 2007 in the Linyi watershed. The results show that rainfall forecasts by GRAPES using TIGGE data from the three forecast centers all underestimate heavy rainfall rates; the rainfall forecast by GRAPES using the data from the NCEP is the closest to the obser- vation while that from the CMA performs the worst. Moreover, the ensemble is not better than individual members for rainfall forecasts. In contrast to corresponding rainfall forecasts, runoff forecasts are much better for all three forecast centers, especially for the NCEP. The results suggest that early flood warning by the GRAPES/XXT model based on TIGGE data is feasible and this provides a new approach to raise preparedness and thus to reduce the socio-economic impact of floods. 展开更多
关键词 TIGGE GRAPES flood warning XXT rainfall-runoffprocess
原文传递
上一页 1 下一页 到第
使用帮助 返回顶部