Reflection on China's Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Construction after Rainstorm and Snowstorm

On July 10,2004,Beijing was hit by the rainstorm that has not been seen for many years,which caused water accumulation in many places of the urban area,power supply interruption in many places,and traffic paralysis for nearly 5 h. On July 12,2004,the rainstorm in Shanghai lasted less than 1 h,but it caused 7 deaths,more than 20 injuries,extensive power outages and traffic paralysis. At the end of 2005,the continuous snowfall in Weihai City of Shandong Province for half a month caused direct economic losses of over 200 million yuan,and the continuous heavy snowfall had a serious impact on people’s lives. From July 17 to 23,2021,Henan Province suffered a rare extremely heavy rainstorm in history,with a direct economic loss of 120.6 billion yuan. Faced with such urban meteorological disasters and other types of urban disasters,combined with the current situation of disaster prevention and reduction in China,what will managers,decision-makers,and experts and scholars think about from them.

GIS-based Risk Zonation of Rainstorm Disaster in Guizhou Province

[Objective] This paper aimed to study the risk zoning of rainstorm in Guizhou based on GIS. [Method] Taking Guizhou as study area, 1 km×1 km grid data as evaluation unit, and by dint of daily precipitation in meteorological station in Guizhou from 1961 to 2008, the rainstorm risk zoning system was constructed from the aspects of disaster-stricken dangers, suffering flexibility, disaster environment sensitivity and disaster prevention or mitigation; based on the level analysis method to determine factor weight, the risk assessment model based on GIS was set up to evaluate the four sub-indicators and risks and to get the rainstorm disaster in Guizhou in the end. [Result] The risk assessment and zonation results showed a general trend that the risk level decreased from the central to all around. The low risk area distributed in the northwest of Guizhou province because of less heavy rains and high capacity of rainstorm disaster resistant, while high risk area mainly distributed in the west-central of Guizhou due to concentration rainstorms, large terrain undulation and low coverage rate of forest. Especially, according to Anshun, the high risk area took up 98.02% of the city, and the Gangwu County, where a super-large geological disaster concurred in 2010 is located at the high risk area, which showed that the risk assessment coincided with the actual situation. [Conclusion] The study provided theoretical basis for the macro disaster prevention and disaster mitigation plan.

Study on Evaluation of the Rainstorm Disaster in Fujian Province Based on Spectral Clustering Model with Grey Correlation Analysis

[ Objective] The research aimed to study assessment index system of the rainstorm disaster in Fujian Province based on spectral cluste- ring model with grey correlation analysis. [Method] According to meteorological disaster yearbook in Fujian Province, by comprehensively consider- ing disaster-inducing factor, disaster-inducing environment, disaster-sustaining body and regional disaster-prevention level, evaluation index system of the regional rainstorm disaster in Fujian was established. By spectral clustering model based on grey correlation analysis, dsk zoning of the rain- storm disaster was conducted in each area of Fujian. Finally, effect and application of the clustering model were analyzed by case research. [ Re- sult] In order to dig immanent connection among regional characteristics and improve disaster-preventing linkage performance of the evaluation unit, a spectral clustering model based on grey correlation analysis was used to conduct risk zoning of the rainstorm disaster in Fujian Province. Moreo- ver, combined weight was introduced to judge each evaluation index, so as to adjust clustering model. By case study, rainstorm disaster levels in 67 counties were obtained. Internal characteristics of each type were analyzed, and main correlation factors of each type were extracted. It was compared with statistical result of the rainstorm disaster, verifying validity and feasibility of the model. [ Conclusion] The method was feasible, and its evaluated result had better differentiation and decision accuracv.

The Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Rainstorm Disaster in Sichuan Province over the Past Decade

The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of rainstorm disaster in Sichuan Province were investigated by statistical analysis method based on 2002-2015 rainstorm disaster data of Sichuan Province. As shown by the results, the rainstorm disaster in Sichuan Province was distributed mainly in four regions including Liangshan Prefecture and Sichuan Basin during 2002-2015, and the rainstorm disaster distribution had a good corresponding relationship with the rainstorm center regions;in terms of annual variation trend, the variation of rainstorm disaster frequency showed a significant quasi-2-3-year oscillation period;in terms of monthly distribution, June, July and August saw the heaviest rainstorms;the high death toll from rainstorms was attributed to not only routine rainfall, occurrence time and terrain feature, but also the populace’s awareness of disaster prevention and the disaster prevention measures they adopted. The research result has important significance to improve the pertinence and practicability of decision-making meteorological services.

Damage of Flood-causing Rainstorm to Towns in Zhumadian City and Its Countermeasures for Disaster Reduction

Based on meteorological data of Zhumadian City in the past 56 years, the damage of flood-causing rainstorm to towns in Zhumadian City as well as its cataclysm form, influencing system, cataclysm characteristics and action mechanism were analyzed to discuss the characteristics and rules of damage caused by flood-causing rainstorm. Meanwhile, countermeasures against flood-causing rainstorm cataclysm in Zhumadian City were proposed to provide scientific references for early warning and monitoring of flood-causing rainstorm as well as flood control and disaster mitigation.

Research and Application of Rainstorm Disaster Risk Assessment along the Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River

We explored and studied rainstorm disaster impact grade. Firstly,we selected average precipitation,precipitation intensity,coverage and duration during rainstorm process,and economic losses,the number of deaths and total casualties in rainstorm disaster situation as the pre-assessment indexes of rainstorm process impact grade along the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River. Then,normalized and dimensionless processing of each index was conducted. By using gray correlation method,we established rainstorm process grade and rainstorm disaster impact grade. At last,we conducted regression analysis of relevancy degree between rainstorm process grade and rainstorm disaster situation grade,and established a linear relationship between the two,thereby getting a rainstorm disaster pre-assessment method. On this basis,using rainstorm hazard factors in independent sample,we carried out pre-assessment test of disaster impact grade. The results show that this pre-assessment method is quick and easy,and the effect is better.

Characteristics of Rainstorm and Flood Disaster in Shaoyang City and Flood Protection Countermeasures

Based on ground meteorological observation data at 10 representative stations of Shaoyang City during 1951-2017 and rainfall data at over 220 automatic weather stations during 2005-2017,statistical analysis on rainstorm and flood disaster in Shaoyang was conducted. Occurrence characteristics and rule of rainstorm and flood disaster were found,and disaster situation was evaluated and analyzed. The results showed that（ 1）there was almost local rainstorm and flood in Shaoyang City every year,with strong seasonal characteristic.（ 2） The loss caused by rainstorm and flood disaster was the most serious in various meteorological disasters.（ 3） Rainstorm and flood disaster generally had the sudden and devastating characteristics. Via the analysis and research on rainstorm and flood disaster,defense measure and countermeasure of rainstorm and flood were proposed,which could provide scientific decision basis for party and government leading flood relief,and had important guidance significance for preventing and mitigating disasters by government agencies.

Study on Risk Assessment of Summer Rainstorm Disaster and Countermeasures for Disaster Prevention and Mitigation in Shaoyang City

Using summer(June-August)precipitation observation data in 10 representative stations of Shaoyang City during 1971-2021 and disaster data caused by summer rainstorm in nine counties(cities)and four districts of Shaoyang during 1981-2021,statistical analysis on summer rainstorm and its caused disaster in Shaoyang was conducted,and spatial and temporal characteristics of summer rainstorm and spatial distribution rule of disaster were found out.The results showed that(1)the rainstorm disaster in Shaoyang City occurs almost every year and is highly seasonal.(2)Rainstorm disaster loss is the first of other meteorological disasters.(3)The summer rainstorm disaster has the characteristics of sudden and destructive.On this basis,the relative grades of rainstorm disaster risk degree and disaster loss degree were divided,and the risk assessment of rainstorm and flood disaster in Shaoyang City was made,and the disaster prevention and mitigation measures and countermeasures were put forward.The research could provide scientific decision basis for party and government departments guiding flood fighting and disaster relief.

Study on Risk Prevention of Rainstorm Disaster in the Jinji River of Guilin

The research aimed to prevent and reduce rainstorm disaster in the Jinji River of Yongfu County,Guilin City.Distribution of population,cultivated land and GDP in the Jinji River were analyzed,and the influence of historical rainstorm process was studied.Moreover,high risk area of meteorological disasters and the region not suitable for constructing residential areas,development zones and projects were distinguished,and its influence on agriculture and forestry was analyzed.If it was necessary to build residential areas,development zones and projects or the human society has already been in the high-risk area of meteorological disasters and it was difficult to move,what engineering measures should be taken to prevent the occurrence of risks.The research could provide scientific basis for design standard of disaster prevention engineering,to prevent the occurrence of disaster risk.

Analysis and Zoning of Rainstorm Flood Disaster Risk in Huaihe River Basin

Taking the rainstorm flood disaster of Huaihe River basin as the research object,according to the principles of risk assessment for natural disasters,starting from the fatalness of inducing factors and the vulnerability of hazard bearing body,the weight of each impact factor was calculated by using AHP. By using spatial analysis and statistical function of GIS,the integrated risk chart of rainstorm flood disaster in Huaihe River basin was obtained. The results showed that the high risk areas of rainstorm flood disaster in Huaihe River basin mainly distributed in the southern part of Henan,the central northern part of Anhui and eastern part of Jiangsu Province. Due to higher fatalness of inducing factors in southern Henan,there was high risk in the region. Central Anhui and east Jiangsu were not only high-fatalness zones but also high vulnerability zones of population and economy.

考虑暴雨灾害动态影响的城市应急车辆救援路径优化研究

近年来,极端天气事件发生频次不断增加,强度不断加大,其中,由暴雨引发的城市内涝导致交通应急事件发生概率进一步增大。为提升暴雨灾害下应急救援响应速度,本文开展应急车辆救援路径优化研究。以通行时间最短为目标,考虑路面积水对车辆通行速度的动态影响,构建应急车辆救援路径优化模型,提出动态最短路径优化算法求解模型。选取上海市长宁区东北部作为研究区域,根据SWMM(Storm Water Management Model)模拟得到的50年一遇暴雨条件下城市道路路面的积水情况,设定应急救援场景,求解应急救援路径。通过本文提出算法求解得到的路径与传统静态最短路径算法求解结果对比可知,通行用时同比减少了25.42%。同时,考虑应急物资储备情况分配应急救援任务,扩展了算法的应用场景,形成可靠和高效的应急响应方案,可为提升暴雨灾害下应急响应效率提供参考。

气候变暖背景下云南省暴雨灾害风险区划研究

为进一步研究气候变暖背景下云南省暴雨灾害风险,利用25个气象站1990~2020年的逐日降水数据、社会经济、地理国情和历史灾情数据,基于ArcGIS的空间分析功能,运用暴雨灾害风险指数法、加权综合评价法、层次分析法和百分位数法通过建立由暴雨灾害致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性和防灾减灾能力组成的综合暴雨灾害风险评估模型,实现了对云南省暴雨灾害风险的区划研究。结果表明,云南省中东部和南部暴雨灾害风险较高,其中昆明中部及南部、曲靖南部、红河南部、西双版纳南部等地区暴雨灾害风险最高;暴雨灾害中等风险区主要位于曲靖北部、文山西南部、普洱西部、保山北部、楚雄西北部等地,而西北部的迪庆和怒江两州的暴雨灾害风险较低。区划结果能在一定程度上反映出云南暴雨灾害的分布情况,具有较好的理论意义和实际指导价值。

石家庄暴雨时空分布特征及灾情评估

基于石家庄市2015—2021年暴雨洪涝灾情资料数据,以及17个国家站及268个区域自动气象站数据,采用气候统计诊断方法分析了石家庄暴雨时空分布的气候特征,并利用灰色关联分析及逐步回归方法,建立了石家庄市暴雨灾情评估及预评估模型.结果表明:①石家庄暴雨频次及强度随时间呈递增趋势,暴雨强度年际变化增大且极端性增强.②石家庄西北部暴雨频次多、强度大,西南部暴雨频次相对较少,但强度最大,其中平山、井陉为大暴雨、特大暴雨高发区,复杂的地理环境使该地区发生暴雨洪涝灾害的风险增加.③由灰色关联分析方法确定的暴雨灾情等级正确率83.33%,能够反映实际暴雨灾情等级,且有利于客观区分同一等级内暴雨灾情大小.④基于气象因子,利用逐步回归方法建立的暴雨灾情评估及预评估模型正确率可达68.75%.

面向三度空间的地铁车站暴雨内涝应急能力评价

为科学评价地铁车站暴雨内涝应急能力,减少暴雨内涝灾害事故,基于三度空间理念,采用熵权云模型进行地铁车站暴雨内涝应急能力评价分析。首先从三度空间的物理空间、社会空间、信息空间出发,结合灾害应急的预防能力、准备能力、响应能力、恢复能力过程属性,构建地铁车站暴雨内涝应急能力分析框架。参考借鉴地铁内涝灾害相关文献,建立了地铁车站暴雨内涝应急能力评价指标体系。随后,建立地铁车站暴雨内涝应急评价熵权云模型。利用云发生器matlab编程计算应急能力标准云和评价云的云数字特征,生成云滴及应急能力云图。对比评价云图和标准云图,结合贴近度来判定应急能力等级。通过SPSSAU障碍度模型计算,找到应急能力障碍因子。最后,进行实例分析,发现地铁暴雨内涝应急能力因子主要是在社会空间和信息空间,并据此提出相应提升建议。

基于加密观测的重庆暴雨预警等级标准确定

基于重庆市2011—2021年2066个加密观测自动气象站小时雨量和暴雨灾情数据,利用暴雨过程滑动抽样和百分位法确定区县暴雨预警信号发布标准及全市暴雨灾害风险预警等级标准,为重庆地方部门启动暴雨应急响应提供参考。结果表明:重庆设气象主管机构的34个区县累计发生5363次暴雨过程,平均每个区县每年出现14.3次,选取1、3、12 h作为暴雨过程预警信号发布参考历时;各历时雨量升序排列后按照30%~50%、70%~80%、90%~95%、99%~99.9%百分位区间取整,得到暴雨蓝、黄、橙、红预警等级阈值分别是:1 h-30-50-70-100 mm,3 h-50-70-100-150 mm,12 h-70-100-150-250 mm;区县不同预警信号的致灾概率随信号增强、历时增加而增大,综合各历时最高预警等级和最大致灾概率,各区县平均每年发布暴雨蓝、黄、橙、红预警5.4、4.0、1.3、0.18次,致灾概率分别是30%、60%、85%、95%;全市累计出现114次区域暴雨过程,根据暴雨过程可能受灾区县个数发布暴雨灾害风险预警等级,平均每年发布Ⅳ级5.3次、Ⅲ级3.1次、Ⅱ级1.6次、Ⅰ级0.1次,与区县预警信号发布频次基本一致,符合预警发布规律。

暴雨洪涝灾害转移安置人数的组合预测模型研究

为了更加科学精准地预测暴雨洪涝灾害下需要转移安置的人数,收集2011—2018年全国范围内严重暴雨洪涝灾害案例,通过Pearson相关性分析检验转移安置人数与表征暴雨洪涝灾害严重程度影响因素之间的关系;分别使用基于主成分分析的回归模型和支持向量机(SVM)预测暴雨洪涝灾害下需要转移安置人数,并以2种方法的结果为基础,提出1种组合预测方法对暴雨洪涝灾害转移人数进行修正。研究结果表明:组合预测法的MSE、MAE均小于回归预测和SVM模型预测。使用组合预测方法对洪涝灾害转移安置人数进行预测,可以充分结合单一预测模型的优势,提高组合预测模型的预测精度和泛化能力。研究结果可为确定暴雨洪涝灾害的避难需求并制定避难疏散计划提供参考。

城市极端暴雨洪涝灾害成因及对策研究进展

从极端暴雨形成机制、城市洪涝致灾机理及风险评估、防灾减灾措施和应对极端暴雨的城市韧性4个方面对城市暴雨洪涝问题国内外研究进展进行了综述,指出研究中下垫面对强降水和产汇流过程的影响机制认识不清,以单灾种为研究对象的风险评估缺乏对各类灾害关系的厘定,应对极端暴雨的城市韧性研究多停留在理论探讨层面等问题,未来应重点研究城市极端暴雨预报预警能力提升技术、洪涝灾害形成及灾害链传导机制、洪涝灾害治理措施、可实施层面的城市韧性提升方法等。

北京市暴雨灾害102例伤患院前应急救援分析

目的分析2023年北京特大暴雨灾害中伤患院前救援数据,总结自然灾害下急救医疗保障经验。方法收集2023年7月31日—8月8日北京特大暴雨灾害期间灾害地区伤病呼救数据,分类统计其基本信息、呼叫原因、病种分类、救治和转归情况。结果暴雨受灾地区呼叫伤患共计102例,男性61例,女性41例,年龄(58.01±19.75)岁。受灾地区呼叫救护车原因主要为灾害所致创伤(47.06%),医疗条件受限(30.39%),突发疾病后交通受阻(22.55%)。灾害所致创伤中,水中异物冲击(13.73%)及物体撞击(10.78%)占比较高。伤患分布区域主要在门头沟区和房山区,且两区的整体派车量及突发事件量较2022年同期相比均增长明显,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。病种分类中,损伤性疾病占比最高(48.04%)。转归中有91例送达医院(89.22%),现场处置未送医院5例(4.90%),移交110处理6例(5.88%)。结论重大自然灾害事件会造成严重的人员伤亡和财产损失。救援人员要针对伤患病情特点进行医疗救治。同时应加强救援信息多方联动、网络通讯及信息化建设,确保急救装备配置充足,灾后疏散及后续保障工作完备,建立全市救援力量统筹支援机制,为院前应急救援处置及医疗急救服务提供有力保障。

极端暴雨下不可移动文物脆弱性分析——以河南“7·20”暴雨为例

暴雨灾害往往会对不可移动文物造成极大破坏,对灾后文物的损毁情况进行分析研究,可为不可移动文物的预防性保护工作提供重要参考。通过对2021年河南“7.20”暴雨中188处不可移动文物灾后调查资料的整理统计,分析了受灾文物损毁情况的差异性特征,归纳不可移动文物在暴雨灾害中的损毁形式表现为暴雨冲刷、积水浸泡造成的缓慢侵蚀破坏和洪水冲击、泥石流破坏造成的急剧动力破坏形式。另外,选取过程降雨量来表征暴雨灾害的危险性强度,构建了基于Lognormal概率分布函数的受灾文物损失状态脆弱性曲线模型,分别从结构材料、建筑规模、保存状态三方面综合分析不可移动文物的脆弱性特征。研究结果表明,砖土结构文物相比于砖木、砖石结构文物的脆弱性更强,当降雨量超过100 mm时有较高概率发生严重破坏,砖木、砖石结构文物在降雨量超过340 mm时有较高概率发生严重破坏;建筑面积在100 m2以下文物的脆弱性最高,极端暴雨灾害更容易对其造成严重破坏;相同降雨量下保存状态越差,文物脆弱性越强,其中保存状态较差的文物在极低降雨量(≤25 mm)有较高概率发生严重破坏。

基于智能网格预报的江西暴雨灾害风险预评估研究

利用1951—2022年江西降水实况、逐日智能网格降水预报产品、暴雨灾情损失,地形DEM、河网密度及GDP、人口等数据,分析了江西暴雨灾害风险的主要影响因素,从暴雨灾害致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性和承灾体易损性三方面,构建了江西暴雨灾害风险评估模型。利用模型对2010—2020年135次暴雨过程灾害风险进行评估检验,结果显示该模型较为合理;对2019年6月6—11日江西暴雨过程进行灾害风险评估,结果显示该过程中吉安北部至赣州东北部、上饶东部为重度到极重度受灾区;再对2022年6月12—15日江西暴雨过程进行灾害风险逐日预评估;两者结果均与灾情实况分布大体一致,总体效果较好。