We study the high order equilibrium distributions of a counting random variable. Properties such as moments, the probability generating function, the stop--loss transform and the mean residual lifetime, are derived. E...We study the high order equilibrium distributions of a counting random variable. Properties such as moments, the probability generating function, the stop--loss transform and the mean residual lifetime, are derived. Expressions are obtained for higher order equilibrium distribution functions under mixtures and convolutions of a counting distribution. Recursive formulas for higher order equilibrium distribution functions of the (a,b,0) -family of distributions are given.展开更多
The fatigue life of aeroengine turbine disc presents great dispersion due to the randomness of the basic variables,such as applied load,working temperature,geometrical dimensions and material properties.In order to am...The fatigue life of aeroengine turbine disc presents great dispersion due to the randomness of the basic variables,such as applied load,working temperature,geometrical dimensions and material properties.In order to ameliorate reliability analysis efficiency without loss of reliability,the distributed collaborative response surface method(DCRSM) was proposed,and its basic theories were established in this work.Considering the failure dependency among the failure modes,the distributed response surface was constructed to establish the relationship between the failure mode and the relevant random variables.Then,the failure modes were considered as the random variables of system response to obtain the distributed collaborative response surface model based on structure failure criterion.Finally,the given turbine disc structure was employed to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the presented method.Through the comparison of DCRSM,Monte Carlo method(MCM) and the traditional response surface method(RSM),the results show that the computational precision for DCRSM is more consistent with MCM than RSM,while DCRSM needs far less computing time than MCM and RSM under the same simulation conditions.Thus,DCRSM is demonstrated to be a feasible and valid approach for improving the computational efficiency of reliability analysis for aeroengine turbine disc fatigue life with multiple random variables,and has great potential value for the complicated mechanical structure with multi-component and multi-failure mode.展开更多
One of the important problems of stochastic process theory is to define the Laplace transforms for the distribution of semi-markov random processes. With this purpose, we will investigate the semimarkov random process...One of the important problems of stochastic process theory is to define the Laplace transforms for the distribution of semi-markov random processes. With this purpose, we will investigate the semimarkov random processes with positive tendency and negative jump in this article. The first passage of the zero level of the process will be included as a random variable. The Laplace transforms for the distribution of this random variable is defined. The parameters of the distribution will be calculated on the basis of the final results.展开更多
Blast vibration analysis constitutes the foundation for studying the control of blasting vibration damage and provides the precondition of controlling blasting vibration. Based on the characteristics of short-time non...Blast vibration analysis constitutes the foundation for studying the control of blasting vibration damage and provides the precondition of controlling blasting vibration. Based on the characteristics of short-time nonstationary random signal, the laws of energy distribution are investigated for blasting vibration signals in different blasting conditions by means of the wavelet packet analysis technique. The characteristics of wavelet transform and wavelet packet analysis are introduced. Then, blasting vibration signals of different blasting conditions are analysed by the wavelet packet analysis technique using MATLAB; energy distribution for different frequency bands is obtained. It is concluded that the energy distribution of blasting vibration signals varies with maximum decking charge,millisecond delay time and distances between explosion and the measuring point. The results show that the wavelet packet analysis method is an effective means for studying blasting seismic effect in its entirety, especially for constituting velocity-frequency criteria.展开更多
A composite random variable is a product (or sum of products) of statistically distributed quantities. Such a variable can represent the solution to a multi-factor quantitative problem submitted to a large, diverse, i...A composite random variable is a product (or sum of products) of statistically distributed quantities. Such a variable can represent the solution to a multi-factor quantitative problem submitted to a large, diverse, independent, anonymous group of non-expert respondents (the “crowd”). The objective of this research is to examine the statistical distribution of solutions from a large crowd to a quantitative problem involving image analysis and object counting. Theoretical analysis by the author, covering a range of conditions and types of factor variables, predicts that composite random variables are distributed log-normally to an excellent approximation. If the factors in a problem are themselves distributed log-normally, then their product is rigorously log-normal. A crowdsourcing experiment devised by the author and implemented with the assistance of a BBC (British Broadcasting Corporation) television show, yielded a sample of approximately 2000 responses consistent with a log-normal distribution. The sample mean was within ~12% of the true count. However, a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) of the experiment, employing either normal or log-normal random variables as factors to model the processes by which a crowd of 1 million might arrive at their estimates, resulted in a visually perfect log-normal distribution with a mean response within ~5% of the true count. The results of this research suggest that a well-modeled MCS, by simulating a sample of responses from a large, rational, and incentivized crowd, can provide a more accurate solution to a quantitative problem than might be attainable by direct sampling of a smaller crowd or an uninformed crowd, irrespective of size, that guesses randomly.展开更多
Two posterior distributions for the mean of the Laplace distribution are obtained by deriving the distributions of the product XY and the ratio X/Y when X and Y are Student's t and Laplace random variables distribute...Two posterior distributions for the mean of the Laplace distribution are obtained by deriving the distributions of the product XY and the ratio X/Y when X and Y are Student's t and Laplace random variables distributed independently of each other. Tabulations of the associated percentage points are given along with computer programs for generating them.展开更多
In this paper,the Rama distribution(RD)is considered,and a new model called extended Rama distribution(ERD)is suggested.The new model involves the sum of two independent Rama distributed random variables.The probabili...In this paper,the Rama distribution(RD)is considered,and a new model called extended Rama distribution(ERD)is suggested.The new model involves the sum of two independent Rama distributed random variables.The probability density function(pdf)and cumulative distribution function(cdf)are obtained and analyzed.It is found that the new model is skewed to the right.Several mathematical and statistical properties are derived and proved.The properties studied include moments,coefficient of variation,coefficient of skewness,coefficient of kurtosis and moment generating function.Some simulations are undertaken to illustrate the behavior of these properties.In addition,the reliability analysis of the distribution is investigated through the hazard rate function,reversed hazard rate function and odds function.The parameter of the distribution is estimated based on the maximum likelihood method.The distributions of order statistics for ERD are also presented.The performance of the suggested model is compared with several other lifetime distributions based on some goodness of fit tests on a real dataset.It turns out that the suggested model is more flexible than its competitors considered in this study,for modeling real lifetime data.展开更多
Aiming at the limitation of traditional normal distribution structure is put forward. With strength-strain model, an improved algorithm for this method, the reliability coefficient of non-linear limit status function ...Aiming at the limitation of traditional normal distribution structure is put forward. With strength-strain model, an improved algorithm for this method, the reliability coefficient of non-linear limit status function is solved by developing Taylor progression, and the distribution parameters of random variables are estimated with experimental sample data. Therefore, the estimation of reliability confidence interval on certain confidence level can be solved when distribution parameters are unknown and limit status function is non-linear.展开更多
Random variables and uncertain variables are respectively used to model randomness and uncertainty. While randomness and uncertainty always coexist in a same complex system. As an evolution of random variables and unc...Random variables and uncertain variables are respectively used to model randomness and uncertainty. While randomness and uncertainty always coexist in a same complex system. As an evolution of random variables and uncertain variables, uncertain random variable is introduced as a tool to deal with complex phenomena including randomness and uncertainty simultaneously. For uncertain random variables, a basic and important topic is to discuss the convergence of its sequence.Specifically, this paper focuses on studying the convergence in distribution for a sequence of uncertain random sequences with different chance distributions where random variables are not independent.And the result of this paper is a generalization of the existing literature. Relations among convergence theorems are studied. Furthermore, the theorems are explained by several examples.展开更多
Sliding mode control problem of a class of Ito^ type partial differential equations with delay is probed. The variable structure controller is designed. The existence of motion of sliding mode is shown. And the charac...Sliding mode control problem of a class of Ito^ type partial differential equations with delay is probed. The variable structure controller is designed. The existence of motion of sliding mode is shown. And the character of invariance of sliding control system about uncertainty on the sliding switching surface and stability are analyzed.展开更多
Mountainous rangelands play a pivotal role in providing forage resources for livestock, particularly in summer, and maintaining ecological balance. This study aimed to identify environmental variables affecting range ...Mountainous rangelands play a pivotal role in providing forage resources for livestock, particularly in summer, and maintaining ecological balance. This study aimed to identify environmental variables affecting range plant species distribution, ecological analysis of the relationship between these variables and the distribution of plants, and to model and map the plant habitats suitability by the Random Forest Method(RFM) in rangelands of the Taftan Mountain, Sistan and Baluchestan Province, southeastern Iran. In order to determine the environmental variables and estimate the potential distribution of plant species, the presence points of plants were recorded by using systematic random sampling method(90 points of presence) and soils were sampled in 5 habitats by random method in 0–30 and 30–60 cm depths. The layers of environmental variables were prepared using the Kriging interpolation method and Geographic Information System facilities. The distribution of the plant habitats was finally modelled and mapped by the RFM. Continuous maps of the habitat suitability were converted to binary maps using Youden Index(?) in order to evaluate the accuracy of the RFM in estimation of the distribution of species potentialhabitat. Based on the values of the area under curve(AUC) statistics, accuracy of predictive models of all habitats was in good level. Investigating the agreement between the predicted map, generated by each model, and actual maps, generated from fieldmeasured data, of the plant habitats, was at a high level for all habitats, except for Amygdalus scoparia habitat. This study concluded that the RFM is a robust model to analyze the relationships between the distribution of plant species and environmental variables as well as to prepare potential distribution maps of plant habitats that are of higher priority for conservation on the local scale in arid mountainous rangelands.展开更多
This paper deals with random Taylor series whose coefficients consist of independent random variables {X n} with the property: αE 1/2 {|X n| 2}≤E{|X n|}<∞, E{X n}=0 (n ) for some positive cons...This paper deals with random Taylor series whose coefficients consist of independent random variables {X n} with the property: αE 1/2 {|X n| 2}≤E{|X n|}<∞, E{X n}=0 (n ) for some positive constant α. The convergence, growth, and value distribution of the series are investigated.展开更多
文摘We study the high order equilibrium distributions of a counting random variable. Properties such as moments, the probability generating function, the stop--loss transform and the mean residual lifetime, are derived. Expressions are obtained for higher order equilibrium distribution functions under mixtures and convolutions of a counting distribution. Recursive formulas for higher order equilibrium distribution functions of the (a,b,0) -family of distributions are given.
基金Project(51335003)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(20111102110011)supported by the Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China
文摘The fatigue life of aeroengine turbine disc presents great dispersion due to the randomness of the basic variables,such as applied load,working temperature,geometrical dimensions and material properties.In order to ameliorate reliability analysis efficiency without loss of reliability,the distributed collaborative response surface method(DCRSM) was proposed,and its basic theories were established in this work.Considering the failure dependency among the failure modes,the distributed response surface was constructed to establish the relationship between the failure mode and the relevant random variables.Then,the failure modes were considered as the random variables of system response to obtain the distributed collaborative response surface model based on structure failure criterion.Finally,the given turbine disc structure was employed to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the presented method.Through the comparison of DCRSM,Monte Carlo method(MCM) and the traditional response surface method(RSM),the results show that the computational precision for DCRSM is more consistent with MCM than RSM,while DCRSM needs far less computing time than MCM and RSM under the same simulation conditions.Thus,DCRSM is demonstrated to be a feasible and valid approach for improving the computational efficiency of reliability analysis for aeroengine turbine disc fatigue life with multiple random variables,and has great potential value for the complicated mechanical structure with multi-component and multi-failure mode.
文摘One of the important problems of stochastic process theory is to define the Laplace transforms for the distribution of semi-markov random processes. With this purpose, we will investigate the semimarkov random processes with positive tendency and negative jump in this article. The first passage of the zero level of the process will be included as a random variable. The Laplace transforms for the distribution of this random variable is defined. The parameters of the distribution will be calculated on the basis of the final results.
基金Project(50490272) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China project(2004036430) supported bythe Postdoctoral Science Foundation of China
文摘Blast vibration analysis constitutes the foundation for studying the control of blasting vibration damage and provides the precondition of controlling blasting vibration. Based on the characteristics of short-time nonstationary random signal, the laws of energy distribution are investigated for blasting vibration signals in different blasting conditions by means of the wavelet packet analysis technique. The characteristics of wavelet transform and wavelet packet analysis are introduced. Then, blasting vibration signals of different blasting conditions are analysed by the wavelet packet analysis technique using MATLAB; energy distribution for different frequency bands is obtained. It is concluded that the energy distribution of blasting vibration signals varies with maximum decking charge,millisecond delay time and distances between explosion and the measuring point. The results show that the wavelet packet analysis method is an effective means for studying blasting seismic effect in its entirety, especially for constituting velocity-frequency criteria.
文摘A composite random variable is a product (or sum of products) of statistically distributed quantities. Such a variable can represent the solution to a multi-factor quantitative problem submitted to a large, diverse, independent, anonymous group of non-expert respondents (the “crowd”). The objective of this research is to examine the statistical distribution of solutions from a large crowd to a quantitative problem involving image analysis and object counting. Theoretical analysis by the author, covering a range of conditions and types of factor variables, predicts that composite random variables are distributed log-normally to an excellent approximation. If the factors in a problem are themselves distributed log-normally, then their product is rigorously log-normal. A crowdsourcing experiment devised by the author and implemented with the assistance of a BBC (British Broadcasting Corporation) television show, yielded a sample of approximately 2000 responses consistent with a log-normal distribution. The sample mean was within ~12% of the true count. However, a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) of the experiment, employing either normal or log-normal random variables as factors to model the processes by which a crowd of 1 million might arrive at their estimates, resulted in a visually perfect log-normal distribution with a mean response within ~5% of the true count. The results of this research suggest that a well-modeled MCS, by simulating a sample of responses from a large, rational, and incentivized crowd, can provide a more accurate solution to a quantitative problem than might be attainable by direct sampling of a smaller crowd or an uninformed crowd, irrespective of size, that guesses randomly.
文摘Two posterior distributions for the mean of the Laplace distribution are obtained by deriving the distributions of the product XY and the ratio X/Y when X and Y are Student's t and Laplace random variables distributed independently of each other. Tabulations of the associated percentage points are given along with computer programs for generating them.
基金The authors extend their appreciation to Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia for providing a partial funding for the work under the grant number GGPM-2017-124 and TAP-K017073 which were obtained by Mohd Aftar Abu Bakar.
文摘In this paper,the Rama distribution(RD)is considered,and a new model called extended Rama distribution(ERD)is suggested.The new model involves the sum of two independent Rama distributed random variables.The probability density function(pdf)and cumulative distribution function(cdf)are obtained and analyzed.It is found that the new model is skewed to the right.Several mathematical and statistical properties are derived and proved.The properties studied include moments,coefficient of variation,coefficient of skewness,coefficient of kurtosis and moment generating function.Some simulations are undertaken to illustrate the behavior of these properties.In addition,the reliability analysis of the distribution is investigated through the hazard rate function,reversed hazard rate function and odds function.The parameter of the distribution is estimated based on the maximum likelihood method.The distributions of order statistics for ERD are also presented.The performance of the suggested model is compared with several other lifetime distributions based on some goodness of fit tests on a real dataset.It turns out that the suggested model is more flexible than its competitors considered in this study,for modeling real lifetime data.
文摘Aiming at the limitation of traditional normal distribution structure is put forward. With strength-strain model, an improved algorithm for this method, the reliability coefficient of non-linear limit status function is solved by developing Taylor progression, and the distribution parameters of random variables are estimated with experimental sample data. Therefore, the estimation of reliability confidence interval on certain confidence level can be solved when distribution parameters are unknown and limit status function is non-linear.
基金the Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province under Grant No.F2020202056Key Project of Hebei Education Department under Grant No. ZD2020125。
文摘Random variables and uncertain variables are respectively used to model randomness and uncertainty. While randomness and uncertainty always coexist in a same complex system. As an evolution of random variables and uncertain variables, uncertain random variable is introduced as a tool to deal with complex phenomena including randomness and uncertainty simultaneously. For uncertain random variables, a basic and important topic is to discuss the convergence of its sequence.Specifically, this paper focuses on studying the convergence in distribution for a sequence of uncertain random sequences with different chance distributions where random variables are not independent.And the result of this paper is a generalization of the existing literature. Relations among convergence theorems are studied. Furthermore, the theorems are explained by several examples.
基金Supported by the national natural science foundation (60574042)
文摘Sliding mode control problem of a class of Ito^ type partial differential equations with delay is probed. The variable structure controller is designed. The existence of motion of sliding mode is shown. And the character of invariance of sliding control system about uncertainty on the sliding switching surface and stability are analyzed.
基金funded by University of Zabol,Iran(Grant No.UOZ-GR-9517-24)the Vice Chancellery for Research and Technology,University of Zabol,for funding this study
文摘Mountainous rangelands play a pivotal role in providing forage resources for livestock, particularly in summer, and maintaining ecological balance. This study aimed to identify environmental variables affecting range plant species distribution, ecological analysis of the relationship between these variables and the distribution of plants, and to model and map the plant habitats suitability by the Random Forest Method(RFM) in rangelands of the Taftan Mountain, Sistan and Baluchestan Province, southeastern Iran. In order to determine the environmental variables and estimate the potential distribution of plant species, the presence points of plants were recorded by using systematic random sampling method(90 points of presence) and soils were sampled in 5 habitats by random method in 0–30 and 30–60 cm depths. The layers of environmental variables were prepared using the Kriging interpolation method and Geographic Information System facilities. The distribution of the plant habitats was finally modelled and mapped by the RFM. Continuous maps of the habitat suitability were converted to binary maps using Youden Index(?) in order to evaluate the accuracy of the RFM in estimation of the distribution of species potentialhabitat. Based on the values of the area under curve(AUC) statistics, accuracy of predictive models of all habitats was in good level. Investigating the agreement between the predicted map, generated by each model, and actual maps, generated from fieldmeasured data, of the plant habitats, was at a high level for all habitats, except for Amygdalus scoparia habitat. This study concluded that the RFM is a robust model to analyze the relationships between the distribution of plant species and environmental variables as well as to prepare potential distribution maps of plant habitats that are of higher priority for conservation on the local scale in arid mountainous rangelands.
文摘This paper deals with random Taylor series whose coefficients consist of independent random variables {X n} with the property: αE 1/2 {|X n| 2}≤E{|X n|}<∞, E{X n}=0 (n ) for some positive constant α. The convergence, growth, and value distribution of the series are investigated.