The meteorological data of 616 stations in China were used to calculate the potential evapotranspira-tion and aridity/humidity index by applying the modified FAO-Penman-Monteith model. Regional difference of trends in...The meteorological data of 616 stations in China were used to calculate the potential evapotranspira-tion and aridity/humidity index by applying the modified FAO-Penman-Monteith model. Regional difference of trends in precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and arid-ity/humidity index over China and their interdecadal varia-tions were analyzed from 1971 to 2000. The results show that all the four climatic factors trends have obvious regional difference and interdecadal variations. Annual precipitation during the 30-year period shows an increasing trend over most regions of China, with decreasing trends in potential evapotranspiration and aridity/humidity index. Most regions in China become more humid, especially significant in northern Xinjiang, eastern Tibet, western Sichuan, and northern Yunnan. The average value over China would mask the regional difference of climate change because of the com-plex environmental condition in China. Therefore regional difference should be analyzed to further understand climate change and its impacts. Both water supply and demand need to be considered when attempting to study regional arid-ity/humidity conditions.展开更多
Changes in regional moisture patterns under the impact of climate change are an important focus for science. Based on the five global climate models (GCMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Ph...Changes in regional moisture patterns under the impact of climate change are an important focus for science. Based on the five global climate models (GCMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), this paper projects trends in the area of arid/humid climate regions of China over the next 100 years. It also identifies the regions of arid/humid patterns change and analyzes their temperature sensitivity of responses. Results show that future change will be characterized by a significant contraction in the humid region and an expansion of arid/humid transition zones. In particular, the sub-humid region will expand by 28.69% in the long term (2070-2099) relative to the baseline period (1981-2010). Under 2°C and 4°C warming, the area of the arid/humid transition zones is projected to increase from 10.17% to 13.72% of the total of China. The humid region south of the Huaihe River Basin, which is affected mainly by a future increase in evapotranspiration, will retreat southward and change to a sub-humid region. In general, the sensitivity of responses of arid/humid patterns to climate change in China will intensify with accelerating global warming.展开更多
Assessing the climate change risk faced by the ecosystems in the arid/humid transition zone(AHTZ)in northern China holds scientific significance to climate change adaptation.We simulated the net primary productivity(N...Assessing the climate change risk faced by the ecosystems in the arid/humid transition zone(AHTZ)in northern China holds scientific significance to climate change adaptation.We simulated the net primary productivity(NPP)for four representative concentration pathways(RCPs)using an improved Lund-Potsdam-Jena model.Then a method was established based on the NPP to identify the climate change risk level.From the midterm period(2041–2070)to the long-term period(2071–2099),the risks indicated by the negative anomaly and the downward trend of the NPP gradually extended and increased.The higher the scenario emissions,the more serious the risk.In particular,under the RCP8.5 scenario,during 2071–2099,the total risk area would be 81.85%,that of the high-risk area would reach 54.71%.In this high-risk area,the NPP anomaly would reach–96.00±46.95 gC·m-2·a-1,and the rate of change of the NPP would reach–3.56±3.40 gC·m-2·a-1.The eastern plain of the AHTZ and the eastern grasslands of Inner Mongolia are expected to become the main risk concentration areas.Our results indicated that the management of future climate change risks requires the consideration of the synergistic effects of warming and intensified drying on the ecosystem.展开更多
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40171040)；the KnowledgeInnovation Project of the Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS (Grant No. CXIOG-A02-03)； the Director Foundation of Knowledge Innovation Project of CAS (Grant No.SJ10G-A00-06).
文摘The meteorological data of 616 stations in China were used to calculate the potential evapotranspira-tion and aridity/humidity index by applying the modified FAO-Penman-Monteith model. Regional difference of trends in precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and arid-ity/humidity index over China and their interdecadal varia-tions were analyzed from 1971 to 2000. The results show that all the four climatic factors trends have obvious regional difference and interdecadal variations. Annual precipitation during the 30-year period shows an increasing trend over most regions of China, with decreasing trends in potential evapotranspiration and aridity/humidity index. Most regions in China become more humid, especially significant in northern Xinjiang, eastern Tibet, western Sichuan, and northern Yunnan. The average value over China would mask the regional difference of climate change because of the com-plex environmental condition in China. Therefore regional difference should be analyzed to further understand climate change and its impacts. Both water supply and demand need to be considered when attempting to study regional arid-ity/humidity conditions.
基金Supported by Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCX2-YW-202)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40674038)Program of Key Laboratory of Space Environment and Geodesy of Ministry of Education of China
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China,No.2017YFC1502904National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41530749,No.41571043
文摘Changes in regional moisture patterns under the impact of climate change are an important focus for science. Based on the five global climate models (GCMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), this paper projects trends in the area of arid/humid climate regions of China over the next 100 years. It also identifies the regions of arid/humid patterns change and analyzes their temperature sensitivity of responses. Results show that future change will be characterized by a significant contraction in the humid region and an expansion of arid/humid transition zones. In particular, the sub-humid region will expand by 28.69% in the long term (2070-2099) relative to the baseline period (1981-2010). Under 2°C and 4°C warming, the area of the arid/humid transition zones is projected to increase from 10.17% to 13.72% of the total of China. The humid region south of the Huaihe River Basin, which is affected mainly by a future increase in evapotranspiration, will retreat southward and change to a sub-humid region. In general, the sensitivity of responses of arid/humid patterns to climate change in China will intensify with accelerating global warming.
基金National Key R&D Program of China,No.2018YFC1508805The Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences,No.XDA20020202,No.XDA19040304。
文摘Assessing the climate change risk faced by the ecosystems in the arid/humid transition zone(AHTZ)in northern China holds scientific significance to climate change adaptation.We simulated the net primary productivity(NPP)for four representative concentration pathways(RCPs)using an improved Lund-Potsdam-Jena model.Then a method was established based on the NPP to identify the climate change risk level.From the midterm period(2041–2070)to the long-term period(2071–2099),the risks indicated by the negative anomaly and the downward trend of the NPP gradually extended and increased.The higher the scenario emissions,the more serious the risk.In particular,under the RCP8.5 scenario,during 2071–2099,the total risk area would be 81.85%,that of the high-risk area would reach 54.71%.In this high-risk area,the NPP anomaly would reach–96.00±46.95 gC·m-2·a-1,and the rate of change of the NPP would reach–3.56±3.40 gC·m-2·a-1.The eastern plain of the AHTZ and the eastern grasslands of Inner Mongolia are expected to become the main risk concentration areas.Our results indicated that the management of future climate change risks requires the consideration of the synergistic effects of warming and intensified drying on the ecosystem.
