Recent studies on tropical cyclone(TC)intensity change indicate that the development of a vertically aligned TC circulation is a key feature of its rapid intensification(RI),however,understanding how vortex alignment ...Recent studies on tropical cyclone(TC)intensity change indicate that the development of a vertically aligned TC circulation is a key feature of its rapid intensification(RI),however,understanding how vortex alignment occurs remains a challenging topic in TC intensity change research.Based on the simulation outputs of North Atlantic Hurricane Wilma(2005)and western North Pacific Typhoon Rammasun(2014),vortex track oscillations at different vertical levels and their associated role in vortex alignment are examined to improve our understanding of the vortex alignment during RI of TCs with initial hurricane intensity.It is found that vortex tracks at different vertical levels oscillate consistently in speed and direction during the RI of the two simulated TCs.While the consistent track oscillation reduces the oscillation tilt during RI,the reduction of vortex tilt results mainly from the mean track before RI.It is also found that the vortex tilt is primarily due to the mean vortex track before and after RI.The track oscillations are closely associated with wavenumber-1 vortex Rossby waves that are dominant wavenumber-1 circulations in the TC inner-core region.This study suggests that the dynamics of the wavenumber-1 vortex Rossby waves play an important role in the regulation of the physical processes associated with the track oscillation and vertical alignment of TCs.展开更多
In this study,Typhoon Rammasun(2014)was simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model to examine the kinetic energy during rapid intensification(RI).Budget analyses revealed that in the inner area of the ...In this study,Typhoon Rammasun(2014)was simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model to examine the kinetic energy during rapid intensification(RI).Budget analyses revealed that in the inner area of the typhoon,the conversion from symmetric divergent kinetic energy associated with the collocation of strong cyclonic circulation and inward flow led to an increase in the symmetric rotational kinetic energy in the lower troposphere.The increase in the symmetric rotational kinetic energy in the mid and upper troposphere resulted from the upward transport of symmetric rotational kinetic energy from the lower troposphere.In the outer area,both typhoon and Earth’s rotation played equally important roles in the conversion from symmetric divergent kinetic energy to symmetric rotational kinetic energy in the lower troposphere.The decrease in the symmetric rotational kinetic energy in the upper troposphere was caused by the conversion to asymmetric rotational kinetic energy through the collocation of symmetric tangential rotational winds and the radial advection of asymmetric tangential rotational winds by radial environmental winds.展开更多
Tropical cyclones which rapidly intensify (ΔV≥ 20 m/s in 24 h)in the Northwest Pacific Ocean west of 135°E could have adverse influence on oceanic and coastal economic activities in China, 71% of which land in ...Tropical cyclones which rapidly intensify (ΔV≥ 20 m/s in 24 h)in the Northwest Pacific Ocean west of 135°E could have adverse influence on oceanic and coastal economic activities in China, 71% of which land in China. Rapid intensification is mostly seen east and northeast of the Luzon Island. It is much correlated with sea surface temperature(≥28℃)and upper air conditions, such as enhanced subtropical high, onset of Southwest monsoon surge, invasion of modest cold air, and Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough(TUTT) etc. Abovementioned processes enhance inflows in the low level and deep convection in the area of inner core. Statistics of satellite pixels have confirmed that rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones are marked by a sharp increase in the inner core convection and stable or slowly-increasing deep convection in outer region. Non-rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones have only constant or decreased deep convection in inner core and outer region. The sharp increasing of deep convection in the inner core and the rapid warming in its upper level is a forewarning of rapid intensification of tropical cyclones.展开更多
Explosive cyclones(ECs)occur frequently over the Kuroshio/Kuroshio Extension region.The most rapidly intensified EC over the Kuroshio/Kuroshio Extension region during the 42 years(1979-2020)of cold seasons(October-Apr...Explosive cyclones(ECs)occur frequently over the Kuroshio/Kuroshio Extension region.The most rapidly intensified EC over the Kuroshio/Kuroshio Extension region during the 42 years(1979-2020)of cold seasons(October-April)was studied to reveal the variations of the key factors at different explosive-developing stages.This EC had weak low-level baroclinicity,mid-level cyclonic-vorticity advection,and strong low-level water vapor convergence at the initial explosive-developing stage.The low-level baroclinicity and mid-level cyclonic-vorticity advection increased substantially during the maximum-deepening-rate stage.The diagnostic analyses using the Zwack-Okossi equation showed that diabatic heating was the main contributor to the initial rapid intensification of this EC.The cyclonic-vorticity advection and warm-air advection enhanced rapidly in the middle and upper troposphere and contributed to the maximum rapid intensification,whereas the diabatic heating weakened slightly in the mid-low troposphere.The relative contribution of the diabatic heating decreased from the initial explosive-developing stage to the maximum-deepening-rate stage due to the enhancement of other factors(the cyclonic-vorticity advection and warm-air advection).Furthermore,the physical factors contributing to this EC varied with the explosive-developing stage.The non-key factors at the initial explosive-developing stage need attention to forecast the rapid intensification.展开更多
Analyzed in this paper are the 20-yr(1991-2010)tropical cyclone(TC)intensity from three forecast centers in the Western North Pacific,i.e.China Meteorological Administration(CMA),Japan Meteorological Agency(JMA),and J...Analyzed in this paper are the 20-yr(1991-2010)tropical cyclone(TC)intensity from three forecast centers in the Western North Pacific,i.e.China Meteorological Administration(CMA),Japan Meteorological Agency(JMA),and Joint Typhoon Warning Center(JTWC)of the United States.Results show that there is more or less discrepancy in the intensity change of a TC among different datasets.The maximum discrepancy reaches 22 hPa/6h(42 hPa/6h,33 hPa/6h)between CMA and JMA(CMA and JTWC,JMA and JTWC).Special attention is paid to the records for abrupt intensity change,which is currently a difficult issue for forecasters globally.It is found that an abrupt intensity change process recorded by one dataset can have,in some extreme cases,intensity change in another dataset varying from 0 to≥10 hPa/6h with the same sign or the opposite sign.In a total of 2511 cases experiencing rapid intensity change,only 14%have consensus among all the three datasets and 25%have agreement between two of the three datasets.In spite of such a significant uncertainty,the three datasets agree on the general statistical characteristics of abrupt intensity change,including regional and seasonal distribution,the relationship with initial intensity and TC moving speed,and persistence features.Notable disagreement is on very strong systems(SuperTY)and TCs moving very fast.展开更多
Convective burst(CB) characteristics at distinct stages of a rapidly intensified Typhoon Mujigae(2015), are investigated based on a 72-h simulation. The spatial features show that almost all CB elements develop in the...Convective burst(CB) characteristics at distinct stages of a rapidly intensified Typhoon Mujigae(2015), are investigated based on a 72-h simulation. The spatial features show that almost all CB elements develop in the eyewall. The number of CBs in the inner-core region within a 100 km radius—which account for a large proportion of the total CBs, with a sharp increase about 6 h before the onset of rapid intensification(RI)—provides some indication of the RI of the typhoon. The CBs during pre-RI and RI are examined from dynamic and thermodynamic viewpoints. The combination of lower-level convergent inflow and upper-level divergent outflow pushes a relay-race-like transmission of convective activity, favorable for the development of deep convection. A double warm-core structure is induced by the centripetal outflow sinking and warming associated with CBs, which directly accelerates RI by a sudden decrease in hydrostatic pressure. By utilizing the convection activity degree(CAD) index derived from the local total energy anomaly, a correlation formula between CBs and CAD is deduced.Furthermore, an intense CAD(ICAD) signal threshold(with a value equal to 100) to predict CBs is obtained. It is verified that this ICAD threshold is effective for estimating the occurrence of a CB episode and predicting RI of a typhoon. Therefore,this threshold may be a valuable tool for identifying CB episodes and forecasting rapidly intensified typhoons.展开更多
Diagnostics are presented from an ensemble of high-resolution forecasts that differed markedly in their predictions of the rapid intensification(RI)of Typhoon Rammasun.We show that the basic difference stems from subt...Diagnostics are presented from an ensemble of high-resolution forecasts that differed markedly in their predictions of the rapid intensification(RI)of Typhoon Rammasun.We show that the basic difference stems from subtle differences in initializations of(a)500-850-h Pa environmental winds,and(b)midlevel moisture and ventilation.We then describe how these differences impact on the evolving convective organization,storm structure,and the timing of RI.As expected,ascent,diabatic heating and the secondary circulation near the inner-core are much stronger in the member that best forecasts the RI.The evolution of vortex cloudiness from this member is similar to the actual imagery,with the development of an inner cloud band wrapping inwards to form the eyewall.We present evidence that this structure,and hence the enhanced diabatic heating,is related to the tilt and associated dynamics of the developing inner-core in shear.For the most accurate ensemble member:(a)inhibition of ascent and a reduction in convection over the up-shear sector allow moistening of the boundary-layer air,which is transported to the down-shear sector to feed a developing convective asymmetry;(b)with minimal ventilation,undiluted clouds and moisture from the down-shear left quadrant are then wrapped inwards to the up-shear left quadrant to form the eyewall cloud;and(c)this process seems related to a critical down-shear tilt of the vortex from midlevels,and the vertical phase-locking of the circulation over up-shear quadrants.For the member that forecasts a much-delayed RI,these processes are inhibited by stronger vertical wind shear,initially resulting in poor vertical coherence of the circulation,lesser moisture and larger ventilation.Our analysis suggests that ensemble prediction is needed to account for the sensitivity of forecasts to a relatively narrow range of environmental wind shear,moisture and vortex inner-structure.展开更多
Rammasun intensified rapidly from tropical storm to super typhoon in the northern South China Sea(NSCS)before its landfall on Hainan Island. Analysis of observed data shows that the anomalous ocean upper layer warm ...Rammasun intensified rapidly from tropical storm to super typhoon in the northern South China Sea(NSCS)before its landfall on Hainan Island. Analysis of observed data shows that the anomalous ocean upper layer warm water(WW) is important to the rapid intensification of Rammasun. During the period of Rammasun, sea surface temperature(SST) in the NSCS was much warmer than the climatological SST. The anomalous WW supplied more energy to Rammasun, resulting in its rapid intensification. Numerical simulations further confirm that the NSCS WW plays an important role in the rapid intensification of Rammasun. As the WW is removed, the intensification of Rammasun is only 25 h Pa, which is 58.1% of that in the original SST-forced run.展开更多
A 72-h high-resolution simulation of Supertyphoon Rammasun (2014) is performed using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model. The model covers an initial 18-h spin-up, the 36-h rapid intensifica...A 72-h high-resolution simulation of Supertyphoon Rammasun (2014) is performed using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model. The model covers an initial 18-h spin-up, the 36-h rapid intensification (RI) period in the northern South China Sea, and the 18-h period of weakening after landfall. The results show that the model reproduces the track, intensity, structure of the storm, and environmental circulations reasonably well. Analysis of the surface energetics under the storm indicates that the storm's intensification is closely related to the net energy gain rate (eg), defined as the difference between the energy production (PD) due to surface entropy flux and the energy dissipation (Ds) due to surface friction near the radius of maximum wind (RMW). Before and during the RI stage, the ~:g is high, indicating sufficient energy supply for the storm to intensify. However, the Sg decreases rapidly as the storm quickly intensifies, because the Ds increases more rapidly than the PD near the RMW. By the time the storm reaches its peak intensity, the Ds is about 20% larger than the PD near the RMW, leading to a local energetics deficit under the eyewall. During the mature stage, the PD and Ds can reach a balance within a radius of 86 km from the storm center (about 2.3 times the RMW). This implies that the local PD under the eyewall is not large enough to balance the Ds, and the radially inward energy transport from outside the eyewall must play an important role in maintaining the storm's intensity, as well as its intensification.展开更多
Typhoon Hato (2017) went through a rapid intensification (RI) process before making landfall in Zhuhai,Guangdong Province, as the observational data shows. Within 24 hours, its minimum sea level pressure deepened by35...Typhoon Hato (2017) went through a rapid intensification (RI) process before making landfall in Zhuhai,Guangdong Province, as the observational data shows. Within 24 hours, its minimum sea level pressure deepened by35hPa and its maximum sustained wind speed increased by 20m s-1. According to satellite observations, Hato encountered a large area of warm water and two warm core rings before the RI process, and the average sea surface temperature cooling (SSTC) induced by Hato was only around 0.73℃. Air-sea coupled simulations were implemented to investigate the specific impact of the warm water on its RI process. The results showed that the warm water played an important role by facilitating the RI process by around 20%. Sea surface temperature budget analysis showed that the SSTC induced by mixing mechanism was not obvious due to the warm water. Besides, the cold advection hardly caused any SSTC, either. Therefore, the SSTC induced by Hato was much weaker compared with that in general cases. The negative feedback between ocean and Hato was restrained and abundant heat and moisture were sufficiently supplied to Hato. The warm water helped heat flux increase by around 20%, too. Therefore, the warm water influenced the structure and the intensity of Hato. Although there might be other factors that also participated in the RI process, this study focused on air-sea interaction in tropical cyclone forecast and discussed the impact of warm water on the intensity and structure of a tropical cyclone.展开更多
This study examines the long-term change in the threat of landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs) in East Asia over the period 1975–2020 with a focus on rapidly intensifying(RI) TCs. The increase in the annual number of R...This study examines the long-term change in the threat of landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs) in East Asia over the period 1975–2020 with a focus on rapidly intensifying(RI) TCs. The increase in the annual number of RI-TCs over the western North Pacific and the northwestward shift of their genesis location lead to an increasing trend in the annual number of landfalling RI-TCs along the coast of East Asia. The annual power dissipation index(PDI), a measure of the destructive potential of RI-TCs at landfall, also shows a significant increasing trend due to increases in the annual frequency and mean landfall intensity of landfalling RI-TCs. The increase in mean landfall intensity is related to a higher lifetime maximum intensity(LMI) and the LMI location of the landfalling RI-TCs being closer to the coast. The increase in the annual PDI of East Asia is mainly associated with landfalling TCs in the southern(the Philippines, South China, and Vietnam) and northern parts(Japan and the Korean Peninsula) of East Asia due to long-term changes in vertical wind shear and TC heat potential. The former leads to a northwestward shift of favorable environments for TC genesis and intensification, resulting in the northwestward shift in the genesis, RI, and LMI locations of RI-TCs. The latter provides more heat energy from the ocean for TC intensification, increasing its chances to undergo RI.展开更多
Analysis of the cloud macro characteristics of typhoon “Mekkhala” is based on FY-4A stationary meteorological satellite data. Aiming at the precipitation process during the “Mekkhala” tropical storm and typhoon, t...Analysis of the cloud macro characteristics of typhoon “Mekkhala” is based on FY-4A stationary meteorological satellite data. Aiming at the precipitation process during the “Mekkhala” tropical storm and typhoon, the precipitation structure characteristics were analyzed using the precipitation data retrieved from polar orbiting satellites. The results show that: in the life process of “Mekkhala”, its cloud system always presents an asymmetric structure, and the cloud area and cloud top height on the north and south sides also change constantly. When the intensity of “Mekkhala” reaches the maximum, its minimum brightness temperature range is also the largest, and the spiral structure is also the most obvious;during the precipitation process of the “Mekkhala” tropical storm and typhoon, the near-surface precipitation rate is roughly distributed in a ring shape, from the precipitation rate of the FY3-D polar-orbiting satellite and the GCOM-W1 satellite. In terms of product comparison, the precipitation rate product of the GCOM-W1 satellite responds better to low-level precipitation.展开更多
Super Typhoon Hinnamnor(2022)was a rare and unique western North Pacific typhoon,and throughout its lifespan,it exhibited all of the major features that pose current challenges in typhoon research.Specifically,during ...Super Typhoon Hinnamnor(2022)was a rare and unique western North Pacific typhoon,and throughout its lifespan,it exhibited all of the major features that pose current challenges in typhoon research.Specifically,during different stages of its lifespan,it experienced a sudden change of track,underwent rapid intensification,interacted and merged with another vortex,expanded in size,underwent rapid weakening,produced a strong cold wake,exhibited eyewall replacement,and underwent extratropical transition.Therefore,a timely identification and review of these features of Hinnamnor(2022),as reported in this article,will help update and enrich the case sets for each of these scientific issues and provide a background for more in-depth mechanistic studies of typhoon track,intensity,and structural changes in the future.We also believe that Hinnamnor(2022)can serve as an excellent benchmark to quickly evaluate the overall performance of different numerical models in predicting typhoon’s track,intensity,and structural changes.展开更多
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos:42150710531,42192551,61827901)supported this study.
文摘Recent studies on tropical cyclone(TC)intensity change indicate that the development of a vertically aligned TC circulation is a key feature of its rapid intensification(RI),however,understanding how vortex alignment occurs remains a challenging topic in TC intensity change research.Based on the simulation outputs of North Atlantic Hurricane Wilma(2005)and western North Pacific Typhoon Rammasun(2014),vortex track oscillations at different vertical levels and their associated role in vortex alignment are examined to improve our understanding of the vortex alignment during RI of TCs with initial hurricane intensity.It is found that vortex tracks at different vertical levels oscillate consistently in speed and direction during the RI of the two simulated TCs.While the consistent track oscillation reduces the oscillation tilt during RI,the reduction of vortex tilt results mainly from the mean track before RI.It is also found that the vortex tilt is primarily due to the mean vortex track before and after RI.The track oscillations are closely associated with wavenumber-1 vortex Rossby waves that are dominant wavenumber-1 circulations in the TC inner-core region.This study suggests that the dynamics of the wavenumber-1 vortex Rossby waves play an important role in the regulation of the physical processes associated with the track oscillation and vertical alignment of TCs.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41930967)
文摘In this study,Typhoon Rammasun(2014)was simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model to examine the kinetic energy during rapid intensification(RI).Budget analyses revealed that in the inner area of the typhoon,the conversion from symmetric divergent kinetic energy associated with the collocation of strong cyclonic circulation and inward flow led to an increase in the symmetric rotational kinetic energy in the lower troposphere.The increase in the symmetric rotational kinetic energy in the mid and upper troposphere resulted from the upward transport of symmetric rotational kinetic energy from the lower troposphere.In the outer area,both typhoon and Earth’s rotation played equally important roles in the conversion from symmetric divergent kinetic energy to symmetric rotational kinetic energy in the lower troposphere.The decrease in the symmetric rotational kinetic energy in the upper troposphere was caused by the conversion to asymmetric rotational kinetic energy through the collocation of symmetric tangential rotational winds and the radial advection of asymmetric tangential rotational winds by radial environmental winds.
文摘Tropical cyclones which rapidly intensify (ΔV≥ 20 m/s in 24 h)in the Northwest Pacific Ocean west of 135°E could have adverse influence on oceanic and coastal economic activities in China, 71% of which land in China. Rapid intensification is mostly seen east and northeast of the Luzon Island. It is much correlated with sea surface temperature(≥28℃)and upper air conditions, such as enhanced subtropical high, onset of Southwest monsoon surge, invasion of modest cold air, and Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough(TUTT) etc. Abovementioned processes enhance inflows in the low level and deep convection in the area of inner core. Statistics of satellite pixels have confirmed that rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones are marked by a sharp increase in the inner core convection and stable or slowly-increasing deep convection in outer region. Non-rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones have only constant or decreased deep convection in inner core and outer region. The sharp increasing of deep convection in the inner core and the rapid warming in its upper level is a forewarning of rapid intensification of tropical cyclones.
基金jointly funded by the State Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42130605)the Major Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.72293604)+5 种基金the Youth Innovative Talents Program of Guangdong Colleges and Universities(No.2022KQNCX026)the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong(No.ZR2022MD038)the Project of Enhancing School with Innovation of Guangdong Ocean University(No.230419106)the State Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42130605)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42275001,42276019,42205014,and 42275017)the Guangdong Ocean University Ph.D.Scientific Research Program(No.R19045).
文摘Explosive cyclones(ECs)occur frequently over the Kuroshio/Kuroshio Extension region.The most rapidly intensified EC over the Kuroshio/Kuroshio Extension region during the 42 years(1979-2020)of cold seasons(October-April)was studied to reveal the variations of the key factors at different explosive-developing stages.This EC had weak low-level baroclinicity,mid-level cyclonic-vorticity advection,and strong low-level water vapor convergence at the initial explosive-developing stage.The low-level baroclinicity and mid-level cyclonic-vorticity advection increased substantially during the maximum-deepening-rate stage.The diagnostic analyses using the Zwack-Okossi equation showed that diabatic heating was the main contributor to the initial rapid intensification of this EC.The cyclonic-vorticity advection and warm-air advection enhanced rapidly in the middle and upper troposphere and contributed to the maximum rapid intensification,whereas the diabatic heating weakened slightly in the mid-low troposphere.The relative contribution of the diabatic heating decreased from the initial explosive-developing stage to the maximum-deepening-rate stage due to the enhancement of other factors(the cyclonic-vorticity advection and warm-air advection).Furthermore,the physical factors contributing to this EC varied with the explosive-developing stage.The non-key factors at the initial explosive-developing stage need attention to forecast the rapid intensification.
基金National Basic Research Program of China(2009CB421500)National Natural Science Foundation of China(40730948,40921160381)Projects for Public Welfare(Meteorology)of China (GYHY201006008)
文摘Analyzed in this paper are the 20-yr(1991-2010)tropical cyclone(TC)intensity from three forecast centers in the Western North Pacific,i.e.China Meteorological Administration(CMA),Japan Meteorological Agency(JMA),and Joint Typhoon Warning Center(JTWC)of the United States.Results show that there is more or less discrepancy in the intensity change of a TC among different datasets.The maximum discrepancy reaches 22 hPa/6h(42 hPa/6h,33 hPa/6h)between CMA and JMA(CMA and JTWC,JMA and JTWC).Special attention is paid to the records for abrupt intensity change,which is currently a difficult issue for forecasters globally.It is found that an abrupt intensity change process recorded by one dataset can have,in some extreme cases,intensity change in another dataset varying from 0 to≥10 hPa/6h with the same sign or the opposite sign.In a total of 2511 cases experiencing rapid intensity change,only 14%have consensus among all the three datasets and 25%have agreement between two of the three datasets.In spite of such a significant uncertainty,the three datasets agree on the general statistical characteristics of abrupt intensity change,including regional and seasonal distribution,the relationship with initial intensity and TC moving speed,and persistence features.Notable disagreement is on very strong systems(SuperTY)and TCs moving very fast.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) (Grant No. 2015CB452804)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41575064, 41875079, 91637102, 41475036, 91437215 and 41575047)the Basic Research Fund of CAMS (Grant No. 2017Y010)
文摘Convective burst(CB) characteristics at distinct stages of a rapidly intensified Typhoon Mujigae(2015), are investigated based on a 72-h simulation. The spatial features show that almost all CB elements develop in the eyewall. The number of CBs in the inner-core region within a 100 km radius—which account for a large proportion of the total CBs, with a sharp increase about 6 h before the onset of rapid intensification(RI)—provides some indication of the RI of the typhoon. The CBs during pre-RI and RI are examined from dynamic and thermodynamic viewpoints. The combination of lower-level convergent inflow and upper-level divergent outflow pushes a relay-race-like transmission of convective activity, favorable for the development of deep convection. A double warm-core structure is induced by the centripetal outflow sinking and warming associated with CBs, which directly accelerates RI by a sudden decrease in hydrostatic pressure. By utilizing the convection activity degree(CAD) index derived from the local total energy anomaly, a correlation formula between CBs and CAD is deduced.Furthermore, an intense CAD(ICAD) signal threshold(with a value equal to 100) to predict CBs is obtained. It is verified that this ICAD threshold is effective for estimating the occurrence of a CB episode and predicting RI of a typhoon. Therefore,this threshold may be a valuable tool for identifying CB episodes and forecasting rapidly intensified typhoons.
基金partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41365005, 41765007 and 41705038)the Hainan Key Cooperation Program (Grant No. ZDYF2019213)the Natural Science Foundation of Hainan Province of China (Grant No. 417298)
文摘Diagnostics are presented from an ensemble of high-resolution forecasts that differed markedly in their predictions of the rapid intensification(RI)of Typhoon Rammasun.We show that the basic difference stems from subtle differences in initializations of(a)500-850-h Pa environmental winds,and(b)midlevel moisture and ventilation.We then describe how these differences impact on the evolving convective organization,storm structure,and the timing of RI.As expected,ascent,diabatic heating and the secondary circulation near the inner-core are much stronger in the member that best forecasts the RI.The evolution of vortex cloudiness from this member is similar to the actual imagery,with the development of an inner cloud band wrapping inwards to form the eyewall.We present evidence that this structure,and hence the enhanced diabatic heating,is related to the tilt and associated dynamics of the developing inner-core in shear.For the most accurate ensemble member:(a)inhibition of ascent and a reduction in convection over the up-shear sector allow moistening of the boundary-layer air,which is transported to the down-shear sector to feed a developing convective asymmetry;(b)with minimal ventilation,undiluted clouds and moisture from the down-shear left quadrant are then wrapped inwards to the up-shear left quadrant to form the eyewall cloud;and(c)this process seems related to a critical down-shear tilt of the vortex from midlevels,and the vertical phase-locking of the circulation over up-shear quadrants.For the member that forecasts a much-delayed RI,these processes are inhibited by stronger vertical wind shear,initially resulting in poor vertical coherence of the circulation,lesser moisture and larger ventilation.Our analysis suggests that ensemble prediction is needed to account for the sensitivity of forecasts to a relatively narrow range of environmental wind shear,moisture and vortex inner-structure.
基金The National Basic Research Program(973 Program)of China under contract Nos 2013CB430301 and 2013CB430302the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41306024 and 41276018+3 种基金the Scientific Research Fund of the Second Institute of Oceanography,State Oceanic Administration of China under contract Nos JT1301 and JG1416the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities under contract No.2013B25914the Jiangsu Postgraduate Scientific Research and Innovation Projects under contract No.2013B25914the Project of Global Change and Air-Sea interaction under contract No.GASI-03-IPOVAI-04
文摘Rammasun intensified rapidly from tropical storm to super typhoon in the northern South China Sea(NSCS)before its landfall on Hainan Island. Analysis of observed data shows that the anomalous ocean upper layer warm water(WW) is important to the rapid intensification of Rammasun. During the period of Rammasun, sea surface temperature(SST) in the NSCS was much warmer than the climatological SST. The anomalous WW supplied more energy to Rammasun, resulting in its rapid intensification. Numerical simulations further confirm that the NSCS WW plays an important role in the rapid intensification of Rammasun. As the WW is removed, the intensification of Rammasun is only 25 h Pa, which is 58.1% of that in the original SST-forced run.
基金supported by the National Basic Research and Development Project (973 program) of China (Grant No. 2015CB452805)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41375068)partly supported by the National Science Foundation (Grant No. AGS-1326524)
文摘A 72-h high-resolution simulation of Supertyphoon Rammasun (2014) is performed using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model. The model covers an initial 18-h spin-up, the 36-h rapid intensification (RI) period in the northern South China Sea, and the 18-h period of weakening after landfall. The results show that the model reproduces the track, intensity, structure of the storm, and environmental circulations reasonably well. Analysis of the surface energetics under the storm indicates that the storm's intensification is closely related to the net energy gain rate (eg), defined as the difference between the energy production (PD) due to surface entropy flux and the energy dissipation (Ds) due to surface friction near the radius of maximum wind (RMW). Before and during the RI stage, the ~:g is high, indicating sufficient energy supply for the storm to intensify. However, the Sg decreases rapidly as the storm quickly intensifies, because the Ds increases more rapidly than the PD near the RMW. By the time the storm reaches its peak intensity, the Ds is about 20% larger than the PD near the RMW, leading to a local energetics deficit under the eyewall. During the mature stage, the PD and Ds can reach a balance within a radius of 86 km from the storm center (about 2.3 times the RMW). This implies that the local PD under the eyewall is not large enough to balance the Ds, and the radially inward energy transport from outside the eyewall must play an important role in maintaining the storm's intensity, as well as its intensification.
基金National Basic R&D Project(973 Program)of China(2015CB452805)National Natural Science Foundation of China(61827901)+3 种基金National Key R&D Program of China(2017YFC1501602)Open Research Program of the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather(2019LASW-A08)Basic Research Fund of CAMS(2016Z003,2018Y013)Program of the National Satellite Meteorological Centre(FY3(02P)-MAS-1803)。
文摘Typhoon Hato (2017) went through a rapid intensification (RI) process before making landfall in Zhuhai,Guangdong Province, as the observational data shows. Within 24 hours, its minimum sea level pressure deepened by35hPa and its maximum sustained wind speed increased by 20m s-1. According to satellite observations, Hato encountered a large area of warm water and two warm core rings before the RI process, and the average sea surface temperature cooling (SSTC) induced by Hato was only around 0.73℃. Air-sea coupled simulations were implemented to investigate the specific impact of the warm water on its RI process. The results showed that the warm water played an important role by facilitating the RI process by around 20%. Sea surface temperature budget analysis showed that the SSTC induced by mixing mechanism was not obvious due to the warm water. Besides, the cold advection hardly caused any SSTC, either. Therefore, the SSTC induced by Hato was much weaker compared with that in general cases. The negative feedback between ocean and Hato was restrained and abundant heat and moisture were sufficiently supplied to Hato. The warm water helped heat flux increase by around 20%, too. Therefore, the warm water influenced the structure and the intensity of Hato. Although there might be other factors that also participated in the RI process, this study focused on air-sea interaction in tropical cyclone forecast and discussed the impact of warm water on the intensity and structure of a tropical cyclone.
基金supported by the Research Grants Council of Hong Kong Grant City U ECity U101/16。
文摘This study examines the long-term change in the threat of landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs) in East Asia over the period 1975–2020 with a focus on rapidly intensifying(RI) TCs. The increase in the annual number of RI-TCs over the western North Pacific and the northwestward shift of their genesis location lead to an increasing trend in the annual number of landfalling RI-TCs along the coast of East Asia. The annual power dissipation index(PDI), a measure of the destructive potential of RI-TCs at landfall, also shows a significant increasing trend due to increases in the annual frequency and mean landfall intensity of landfalling RI-TCs. The increase in mean landfall intensity is related to a higher lifetime maximum intensity(LMI) and the LMI location of the landfalling RI-TCs being closer to the coast. The increase in the annual PDI of East Asia is mainly associated with landfalling TCs in the southern(the Philippines, South China, and Vietnam) and northern parts(Japan and the Korean Peninsula) of East Asia due to long-term changes in vertical wind shear and TC heat potential. The former leads to a northwestward shift of favorable environments for TC genesis and intensification, resulting in the northwestward shift in the genesis, RI, and LMI locations of RI-TCs. The latter provides more heat energy from the ocean for TC intensification, increasing its chances to undergo RI.
文摘Analysis of the cloud macro characteristics of typhoon “Mekkhala” is based on FY-4A stationary meteorological satellite data. Aiming at the precipitation process during the “Mekkhala” tropical storm and typhoon, the precipitation structure characteristics were analyzed using the precipitation data retrieved from polar orbiting satellites. The results show that: in the life process of “Mekkhala”, its cloud system always presents an asymmetric structure, and the cloud area and cloud top height on the north and south sides also change constantly. When the intensity of “Mekkhala” reaches the maximum, its minimum brightness temperature range is also the largest, and the spiral structure is also the most obvious;during the precipitation process of the “Mekkhala” tropical storm and typhoon, the near-surface precipitation rate is roughly distributed in a ring shape, from the precipitation rate of the FY3-D polar-orbiting satellite and the GCOM-W1 satellite. In terms of product comparison, the precipitation rate product of the GCOM-W1 satellite responds better to low-level precipitation.
基金supported in part by the National Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42192554, 41876011, 61827901, and 41775065)the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant Nos. 2020YFE0201900 and 2022YFC3004200)+2 种基金Shanghai Typhoon Research Foundation (TFJJ202201)S&T Development Fund of CAMS 2022KJ012Basic Research Fund of CAMS 2022Y006
文摘Super Typhoon Hinnamnor(2022)was a rare and unique western North Pacific typhoon,and throughout its lifespan,it exhibited all of the major features that pose current challenges in typhoon research.Specifically,during different stages of its lifespan,it experienced a sudden change of track,underwent rapid intensification,interacted and merged with another vortex,expanded in size,underwent rapid weakening,produced a strong cold wake,exhibited eyewall replacement,and underwent extratropical transition.Therefore,a timely identification and review of these features of Hinnamnor(2022),as reported in this article,will help update and enrich the case sets for each of these scientific issues and provide a background for more in-depth mechanistic studies of typhoon track,intensity,and structural changes in the future.We also believe that Hinnamnor(2022)can serve as an excellent benchmark to quickly evaluate the overall performance of different numerical models in predicting typhoon’s track,intensity,and structural changes.