Direct Monte Carlo(MC) simulation is a powerful probabilistic safety assessment method for accounting dynamics of the system.But it is not efficient at simulating rare events.A biasing transition rate method based on ...Direct Monte Carlo(MC) simulation is a powerful probabilistic safety assessment method for accounting dynamics of the system.But it is not efficient at simulating rare events.A biasing transition rate method based on direct MC simulation is proposed to solve the problem in this paper.This method biases transition rates of the components by adding virtual components to them in series to increase the occurrence probability of the rare event,hence the decrease in the variance of MC estimator.Several cases are used to benchmark this method.The results show that the method is effective at modeling system failure and is more efficient at collecting evidence of rare events than the direct MC simulation.The performance is greatly improved by the biasing transition rate method.展开更多
针对相对径向加速度较小时,已有的到达时间(time of arrival, TOA)二次变化率定位方法精度低的问题,提出基于TOA变化率的高精度定位方法。为了提高TOA变化率估计精度,提出忽略径向加速度进行有偏估计的方法;基于有偏的TOA变化率,首先采...针对相对径向加速度较小时,已有的到达时间(time of arrival, TOA)二次变化率定位方法精度低的问题,提出基于TOA变化率的高精度定位方法。为了提高TOA变化率估计精度,提出忽略径向加速度进行有偏估计的方法;基于有偏的TOA变化率,首先采用牛顿迭代方法,获得目标位置的粗估计,再根据粗定位值近似计算定位偏差,对粗定位进行偏差修正,得到目标位置的高精度估计。理论分析了利用有偏估计进行定位带来的随机误差和定位偏差,以及偏差修正后的定位精度。仿真分析表明,在观测站速度和加速度较小时,本文提出的TOA变化率定位方法精度优于TOA二次变化率定位方法,提出的偏差修正方法可有效降低有偏估计带来的定位偏差,定位精度优于无偏TOA变化率定位方法。展开更多
基金supported by the Special Projects of International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor(2015GB116000)the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.XDA03040000)+1 种基金the Informatizational Special Projects of Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.XXH12504-1-09)the Major/Innovative Program of Development Foundation of Hefei Center for Physical Science and Technology(No.2014FXCX004)
文摘Direct Monte Carlo(MC) simulation is a powerful probabilistic safety assessment method for accounting dynamics of the system.But it is not efficient at simulating rare events.A biasing transition rate method based on direct MC simulation is proposed to solve the problem in this paper.This method biases transition rates of the components by adding virtual components to them in series to increase the occurrence probability of the rare event,hence the decrease in the variance of MC estimator.Several cases are used to benchmark this method.The results show that the method is effective at modeling system failure and is more efficient at collecting evidence of rare events than the direct MC simulation.The performance is greatly improved by the biasing transition rate method.
文摘针对相对径向加速度较小时,已有的到达时间(time of arrival, TOA)二次变化率定位方法精度低的问题,提出基于TOA变化率的高精度定位方法。为了提高TOA变化率估计精度,提出忽略径向加速度进行有偏估计的方法;基于有偏的TOA变化率,首先采用牛顿迭代方法,获得目标位置的粗估计,再根据粗定位值近似计算定位偏差,对粗定位进行偏差修正,得到目标位置的高精度估计。理论分析了利用有偏估计进行定位带来的随机误差和定位偏差,以及偏差修正后的定位精度。仿真分析表明,在观测站速度和加速度较小时,本文提出的TOA变化率定位方法精度优于TOA二次变化率定位方法,提出的偏差修正方法可有效降低有偏估计带来的定位偏差,定位精度优于无偏TOA变化率定位方法。
