Review on the Impact of Climate Change on Great Lakes Region’s Agriculture and Water Resources

This study investigates the multifaceted impacts of climate change on the Midwest region of the United States, particularly the rising temperatures and precipitation brought about by hot weather activities and technological advances since the 19th century. From 1900 to 2010, temperatures in the Midwest rose by an average of 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit, which would also lead to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions. Precipitation is also expected to increase due to increased storm activity and changes in regional weather patterns. This paper explores the impact of these changes on urban and agricultural areas. In urban areas such as the city of Chicago, runoff from the increasing impervious surface areas poses challenges to the drainage system, and agriculture areas are challenged by soil erosion, nutrient loss, and fewer planting days due to excessive rainfall. Sustainable solutions such as no-till agriculture and the creation of grassland zones are discussed. Using historical data, recent climate studies and projections, the paper Outlines ways to enhance the Midwest’s ecology and resilience to climate change.

Runoff variation affected by precipitation change and human activity in Hailiutu River basin,China

For recent years,runoff generation and hydrological processes in Hailiutu River basin have been greatly changed by climate change and human activity,especially water and soil conservation construction.In this study,the trends in precipitation,evapotranspiration(ET)and river runoff as well as the effects of precipitation change and human activity on runoff variation have been studied.The results showed that during 1960-2000,annual precipitation and river runoff,monthly precipitation and ET in September and October as well as monthly runoff in all months showed a significant decrease.In addition,peak flow and base flow had a large decrease.Under the joint influence of precipitation change and human activity,the mean annual runoff decreased by 35 million m3 from the baseline period(1960-1985)to the change period(1986-2000),which accounted for 60.9%and 39.1%of the total runoff decrease,respectively.Precipitation change played a primary role in the decrease of annual runoff whereas human activity,particularly water and soil conservation construction,also had remarkable impacts on runoff variation.

Precipitation Responses to Radiative Effects of Ice Clouds:A Cloud-Resolving Modeling Study of a Pre-Summer Torrential Precipitation Event

The precipitation responses to the radiative effects of ice clouds are investigated through analysis of five-day and hori- zontally averaged data from 2D cumulus ensemble model experiments of a pre-summer torrential precipitation event. The exclusion of the radiative effects of ice clouds lowered the precipitation rate through a substantial reduction in the decrease of hydrometeors when the radiative effects of water clouds were switched on, whereas it increased the precipitation rate through hydrometeor change from an increase to a decrease when the radiative effects of ice clouds were turned off. The weakened hydrometeor decrease was associated with the enhanced longwave radiative cooling mainly through the decreases in the melt- ing of non-precipitating ice to non-precipitating water. The hydrometeor change from an increase to a decrease corresponded to the strengthened longwave radiative cooling in the upper troposphere through the weakened collection of non-precipitating water by precipitation water.

Temperature and Precipitation Trends in the West and East of China during the Period of 1961- 2007:Case Study with Turpan and Nantong

This paper analyzed the data of temperature and precipitation in Turpan and Nantong, in the west and east of China, respectively, during the period of 1961 -2007 by linear growth rate, moving average methods, Mann-Kendall nonparametric and moving Ttests. The result indicated that the annual average temperature in Turpan had a linear growth rate of 0.42 ℃/10 a, while the annual average temperature in Nantong had a linear tendency of 0.48 ℃/10 a. The annual average maximum temperature in Turpan with linear growth rate of 0.16 ℃10 a was lower than 0.56 ℃/ 10 a of Nantong, and the annual average minimum temperature in Turpan with linear growth rate of 0.86℃/10 a was higher than 0.70℃/10 a of Nantong. The annual average temperature of Turpan increasing was 7 years earlier than Nantong. The annual average maximum temperature of Turpan increasing was 5 years later than Nantong. The annual average minimum temperature of Turpan increased as same as Nantong in 1986, but the curve showed different process completely. The abrupt change year of average temperature between Turpan and Nantong were same in 1996, and the abrupt change year of average maximum temperature of Turpan was 5 years later than Nantong. For precipitation, Turpan and Nantong had the same trend of increased and decreased. The reason of almost identical trend of temperature and precipitation between Turpan and Nantong may be urbanization and population increasing influencing climate change in a small area.

The Impacts of Climate Change on the Availability of Surface Water Resources in Jordan

Climate change in the Middle East area including Jordan has started to be reflected in decreasing precipitation and increasing temperatures with their impacts on the availability of surface and groundwater. This article aims to evaluate the impacts of decreasing or increasing precipitation by 10% and 20% on the quantities of flood runoff based on recorded precipitation and runoffs of catchments during the past 60 to 70 years of observation, during which the precipitation in individual or a few years increased or decreased by tens of percentages relative to the long-term average precipitation. The results of quantification show that in Jordan as a whole, decreasing precipitation by 10% and 20% has historically (during the recording period) resulted in reductions in flood flows by 26.2% and 52.8% and that increasing precipitation by 10% and 20% has resulted in increases in flood flows by 26.4% and 56.5% respectively. These results look somehow paradox, because the general perception is that flood runoff changes in the same percentage like precipitation although flood flow is not linearly correlated with precipitation but exponentially. Decreasing precipitation in the water-scarce stressed country, Jordan due to climatic changes, will have strong implications on rain-fed and irrigated agriculture and on household water supplies with very severe socio-economic percussions expressed in increasing unemployment and poverty which may lead to social and political unrest. Therefore, proactive measures have to be implemented before disasters hit. Such measures are limited in Jordan to seawater desalination, intensified water harvesting and improved water use efficiency in agriculture.

Impact of Climate Warming and Drying on Crop Growing Season in Northwestern Liaoning

Based on the observation data of the average temperature and precipitation of 8 national meteorological stations in the northwest region of Liaoning Province from April to October during 1961-2015,methods such as linear trend estimation,moving average,standard deviation and Mann-Kendall test are used to analyze the characteristics of average temperature and precipitation during the crop growing season in northwestern Liaoning.The results show that the average temperature during the crop growing season in the study area showed an upward trend,and the climate tendency rate was 0.193 ℃/10 a( P < 0.01).The largest contribution rate to temperature increase was in September,with a climate tendency rate of 0.27 ℃/10 a;the smallest contribution rate to the temperature increase was in July,with a climate tendency rate of 0.10 ℃/10 a.The warming trend was the most obvious in the second base year,with a climate tendency rate of 0.413 ℃/10 a( P < 0.01).The temperature was the lowest in the 1970s and the highest in the 2010s.The warming trend changed suddenly in 1996,and the sudden change reached a significant level of α = 0.05 after 2002.Precipitation was generally decreased,and the climate tendency rate was -7.68 mm/10 a.The decrease in precipitation was the most in July,and the climate tendency rate was -12.08 mm/10 a.The average temperature in the four base years failed to pass the correlation significance test.Among them,it showed an increasing trend in the second and third base year and a decreasing trend in the first and fourth base year.Rainfall was the highest in the 1960s and the lowest in the 1980s.After the abrupt change in 2002,precipitation decreased significantly.The research results provide reference for effective utilization of climate resources,rational adjustment of agricultural planting structure,and improvement of ecological environment quality.

Preventing the Deluge: Climate Change, the Four Spheres, Interactions, and Causalities

Climate change means water change, and the impacts of climate change cause not only global sea levels to rise, but also elicit dangerous levels of coastal and mainland flooding. This study relates the effects of climate-change-induced sea level risings to several harmful, and sometimes preventable, factors causing floods. One topic discussed here will be the ocean’s current (more specifically, “The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current”) as it continues to warm with increasing temperatures. In addition to discussing the effects of the AMOC, it also relates the increasing causes that are contributing to flooding, plus the proliferation of melt from ice sheets, ice caps, and glaciers, which inevitably contributes to the devastating effects of flooding on coastal communities, destroying habitats and contributing to the extinction of both aquatic and land animals, and even impacting human infrastructure and livelihoods. This examination additionally presents the serious implications that climate change and flooding have had on the planet’s freshwater resources and reserves, which are being further destroyed by the added influx of salt water, causing water to then be treated with aquifers, an energy-intensive and highly expensive process. Lastly, this paper provides several suggested possibilities for curbing some of the harmful effects humans have already had on contributing to climate change, as well as the environmental factors that have further caused dangerous levels of flooding.

Response of Zhadang Glacier runoffin Nam Co Basin,Tibet,to changes in air temperature and precipitation form

This paper describes 2007/2008 inter-annual changes in runoff from the Zhadang Glacier located on the northern slope of Nyainqêntanglha Range,Tibet,and analyzes their causes.Precipitation increased by 17.9%in summer months of 2008 compared with the same period in 2007,drainage basin runoff decreased by 33.3%,and glacial meltwater decreased by 53.8%.Change in positive accumulated air temperature explained approximately half of the inter-annual difference in glacial meltwater using a degree-day model.This suggests that the glacier is extremely sensitive to changes in air temperature.Energy balance analysis showed that change in glacier surface albedo,considered to be caused by difference in precipitation form,resulted in the large inter-annual difference in glacial meltwater.It was shown statistically that precipitation form in the summer months of 2007 was mainly rainfall which comprised 71.5%of total precipitation,while during the same period in 2008 rainfall accounted for 30.7%,with the majority of precipitation falling as snow.Precipitation form should be considered an independent factor when analyzing glacier sensitivity to climate change or forecasting the runoff from certain glaciers.

Groundwater recharge rates and surface runoff response to land use and land cover changes in semi-arid environments

The effects of land use and land cover(LULC)on groundwater recharge and surface runoff and how these are affected by LULC changes are of interest for sustainable water resources management.However,there is limited quantitative evidence on how changes to LULC in semi-arid tropical and subtropical regions affect the subsurface components of the hydrologic cycle,particularly groundwater recharge.Effective water resource management in these regions requires conclusive evidence and understanding of the effects of LULC changes on groundwater recharge and surface runoff.We reviewed a total of 27 studies(2 modeling and 25 experimental),which reported on pre-and post land use change groundwater recharge or surface runoff magnitude,and thus allowed to quantify the response of groundwater recharge rates and runoff to LULC.Comparisons between initial and subsequent LULC indicate that forests have lower groundwater recharge rates and runoff than the other investigated land uses in semi-arid tropical/subtropical regions.Restoration of bare land induces a decrease in groundwater recharge from 42% of precipitation to between 6 and 12% depending on the final LULC.If forests are cleared for rangelands,groundwater recharge increases by 7.8±12.6%,while conversion to cropland or grassland results in increases of 3.4±2.5 and 4.4±3.3%,respectively.Rehabilitation of bare land to cropland results in surface runoff reductions of between 5.2 and 7.3%.The conversion of forest vegetation to managed LULC shows an increase in surface runoff from 1 to 14.1% depending on the final LULC.Surface runoff was reduced from 2.5 to 1.1% when grassland is converted to forest vegetation.While there is general consistency in the results from the selected case studies,we conclude that there are few experimental studies that have been conducted in tropical and subtropical semi-arid regions,despite that many people rely heavily on groundwater for their livelihoods.Therefore,there is an urgent need to increase the body of quantitative evidence given the pressure of growing human population and climate change on water resources in the region.

Monsoon regions: the highest rate of precipitation changesobserved from global data

The global distributions of the rate of precipitation change at seasonal, interannual and interdecadal scales are computed from the observed global data sets. The analysis has revealed that the monsoon regions in Asia and West Africa, and to lesser extent Australia, have the highest rate of precipitation change at all time scales in the world. These changes are manifested as seasonal jump, high interannual and interdecadal variability and abrupt changes between climate regimes.

2000-2021年新疆植被覆盖度变化及驱动力

[目的]探讨2000—2021年新疆植被覆盖变化及其驱动力的分析,为新疆地区环境监测提供理论依据。[方法]借助GEE平台获取由NASA提供的NDVI数据,利用趋势分析、Hurst指数法对新疆地区2000—2021年植被覆盖变化进行动态分析,结合气象等数据,采用Mann-Kendall、偏相关分析法等对植被覆盖变化与气候、地表因素的响应进行分析。[结果](1)2000—2021年新疆地区NDVI年际变化总体以0.0014/a的速率波动式增长;年内变化总体呈倒U型,草甸植被的NDVI月均值波动最大。(2)2000—2021年新疆地区NDVI年均值77.9%在0~0.3波动,在空间分布表现为北部和西北部高,南部和东南部低。(3)2000—2021年新疆地区总体slope值在-0.036~0.052波动,主要变化趋势为基本不变和轻微改善,结合Hurst指数,新疆植被主要未来趋势变化为改善到退化。(4)22年间新疆地区的气温总体呈上升趋势,降水、土壤湿度和径流总体呈下降趋势。NDVI年均值与气温、降水、土壤湿度和径流呈显著负相关性的像元数占比均大于正相关性的像元数占比,且存在明显的空间地域特征。[结论]新疆植被覆盖变化总体呈上升趋势,但未来趋势不容乐观,需要重点关注新疆地区的环境监测等保护措施。

黄河流域头道拐-龙门区间极端降水时空分布特征及其对径流的影响

全球气候变化背景下极端降水事件频发,研究理解极端降水时空变化特征,明确径流过程的变化规律及影响机制对半干旱-半湿润区水土保持决策具有重要意义。基于头道拐—龙门区间1960—2021年37个气象站点资料以及头道拐、龙门水文站资料,分析区间极端降水时空分布特征以及径流动态变化特征,并使用PLSR模型分析极端降水事件同径流之间的关系。结果表明:1)近60多年来,除持续干旱时间、持续降水时间、最大1日降水量、最大5日降水量之外其余各极端降水指数均呈上升趋势,区间极端降水强度指数上升趋势总体高于极端降水频率指数;2)头道拐—龙门区间多年平均径流量为39.8亿m^(3),自20世纪60年代以来平均变化趋势为-0.947亿m^(3)/a。随时间的推移径流量呈显著减少态势,以1979年为界,区间年径流量从61.9亿m^(3)下降到29.3亿m^(3);3)基于突变前各极端降水指数同区间年径流深所构建的PLSR模型累计解释了年径流总方差的88.4%,年降水总量、强降水总量、极端强降水总量是影响头道拐—龙门区间径流变化的最重要变量,同时进一步定量化分离极端降水和人类活动对区间径流的影响,其中极端降水对于径流变化的贡献率为10.6%。

青藏高原大通河流域径流变化归因分析

大通河流域地处青藏高原东北部边缘,生态环境敏感脆弱,开展变化环境下水资源演变、归因研究对保护区域水生态环境,保障水生态文明建设具有十分重要的意义。采用线性倾向估计、集中度、集中期、有序聚类检验、小波分析等统计方法,分析了流域径流的年际变化、年内分配、周期和突变变化特征,基于累积量斜率变化率法和双累积曲线定量评估了气候因素和人类活动对径流变化的影响。结果表明:(1)近60 a大通河流域气候暖湿化明显,年平均气温、降水量、潜在蒸发量增幅分别为0.42℃·(10a)~(-1)和8.9 mm·(10a)~(-1)、5.6 mm·(10a)~(-1),年径流呈减少趋势,倾向率0.67×108m3·(10a)~(-1)。(2)径流集中度和不均匀系数呈微弱下降趋势,枯季径流增加趋势明显,年内分配更趋于均匀,集中期有推迟趋势,延迟速率为3.0 d·(10a)~(-1)。(3)年径流在44 a左右尺度上周期震荡明显,突变发生在1990年,突变后径流量减少3.52×108m3,流域冰川分布呈减小趋势,植被覆盖无显著变化。(4)气候、人类活动对大通河径流减少的贡献率分别为~(-1)7.7%和117.7%,降水量是流域来水的主要补给来源,跨流域调水是引起径流减小的主要驱动因素。

黑水河流域水文气象要素演变特征分析

黑水河为岷江上游典型流域,流域气候变化敏感,水能资源丰富,开展黑水河流域水文气象要素变化特征的研究工作,有利于成都平原水资源的开发利用与管理。采用有序聚类法、Pettitt法、线性倾向估计法、MK趋势检验法及小波分析法等科学全面探讨了年尺度水文气象要素的演变特征。研究成果可以为流域径流演变归因分析及径流预测等内容提供理论依据,以期加深对岷江上游径流变化规律的认识。

漓江流域径流演变归因分析

在气候变化和人类活动的背景下,进行漓江流域径流演变归因分析,有利于漓江流域生态功能的可持续利用。采用线性趋势法和累积距平法对1991—2020年流域年径流量、年降水量、年均气温、NDVI指数进行分析,结果表明各要素均呈上升趋势,分别于2015年、2012年、2017年、2010年前后发生突变。采用Pearson相关系数法分析各要素与径流演变的相关性。最后定量分析气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响,进一步佐证相关分析结果。研究表明,降雨量与径流量的相关性最高,气温与径流量的相关性最弱。气候变化对漓江流域径流演变的贡献率为58.59%,人类活动对漓江流域径流演变的贡献率为41.41%。

Quantitative estimation of the impact of precipita- tion and human activities on runoff change of the Huangfuchuan River Basin

The runoff of some rivers in the world especially in the arid and semi-arid areas has decreased remarkably with global or regional climate change and enhanced human activities. The runoff decrease in the arid and semi-arid areas of northern China has brought severe problems in livelihoods and ecology. To reveal the variation characteristics, trends of runoff and their influencing factors have been important scientific issues for drainage basin man- agement. The objective of this study was to analyze the variation trends of the runoff and quantitatively assess the contributions of precipitation and human activities to the runoff change in the Huangfuchuan River Basin based on the measured data in 1960-2008. Two inflection points （turning years） of 1979 and 1998 for the accumulative runoff change, and one inflection point of 1979 for the accumulative precipitation change were identified using the methods of accumulative anomaly analysis. The linear relationships between year and ac- cumulative runoff in 1960-1979, 1980-1997 and 1998-2008 and between year and accu- mulative precipitation in 1960-1979 and 1980-2008 were fitted. A new method of slope change ratio of accumulative quantity （SCRAQ） was put forward and used in this study to calculate the contributions of different factors to the runoff change. Taking 1960-1979 as the base period, the contribution rate of the precipitation and human activities to the decreased runoff was 36.43% and 63.57% in 1980-1997, and 16.81% and 83.19% in 1998-2008, re- spectively. The results will play an important role in the drainage basin management. More- over, the new method of SCRAQ can be applied in the quantitative evaluation of runoff change and impacts by different factors in the river basin of arid and semi-arid areas.

Contributions of climate and human activities to changes in runoff of the Yellow and Yangtze rivers from 1950 to 2008

Runoffs in the Yellow River and Yangtze River basins,China,have been changing constantly during the last half century.In this paper,data from eight river gauging stations and 529 meteorological stations,inside and adjacent to the study basins,were analyzed and compared to quantify the hydrological processes involved,and to evaluate the role of human activities in changing river discharges.The Inverse Distance Weighted(IDW)interpolation method was used to obtain climatic data coverage from station observations.According to the runoff coefficient equation,the effect of human activities and climate can be expressed by changes in runoff coefficients and changes in precipitation,respectively.Annual runoff coefficients were calculated for the period 1950-2008,according to the correlation between respective hydrological series and regional precipitation.Annual precipitation showed no obvious trend in the upper reaches of the Yellow River but a marked downward trend in the middle and downstream reaches,with declines of 8.8 and 9.8 mm/10 a,respectively.All annual runoff series for the Yellow River basin showed a significant downward trend.Runoff declined by about 7.8 mm/10 a at Sanmenxia and 10.8 mm/10 a at Lijin.The series results indicated that an abrupt change occurred in the late 1980s to early 1990s.The trend of correlations between annual runoff and precipitation decreased significantly at the Yellow River stations,with rates ranging from 0.013/10 a to 0.019/10 a.For the hydrologic series,all precipitation series showed a downward trend in the Yangtze River basin with declines ranging from about 24.7 mm/10 a at Cuntan to 18.2 mm/10 a at Datong.Annual runoff series for the upper reaches of the Yangtze River decreased significantly,at rates ranging from 9.9 to 7.2 mm/10 a.In the middle and lower reaches,the runoff series showed no significant trend,with rates of change ranging from 2.1 to 2.9 mm/10 a.Human activities had the greatest influence on changes in the hydrological series of runoff,regardless of whether the effect was negative or positive.During 1970-2008,human activities contributed to 83% of the reduction in runoff in the Yellow River basin,and to 71% of the increase in runoff in the Yangtze River basin.Moreover,the impacts of human activities across the entire basin increased over time.In the 2000s,the impact of human activities exceeded that of climate change and was responsible for 84% of the decrease and 73% of the increase in runoff in the Yellow River and Yangtze River basins,respectively.The average annual runoff from 1980 to 2008 fell by about 97%,83%,83%,and 91%,compared with 1951-1969,at the Yellow River stations Lanzhou,Sanmenxia,Huayuankou and Lijin,respectively.Most of the reduction in runoff was caused by human activities.Changes in precipitation also caused reductions in runoff of about 3%,17%,17%,and 9% at these four stations,respectively.Falling precipitation rates were the main explanation for runoff changes at the Yangtze River stations Cuntan,Yichang,Hankou,and Datong,causing reductions in runoff of 89%,74%,43%,and 35%,respectively.Underlying surface changes caused decreases in runoff in the Yellow River basin and increases in runoff in the Yangtze River basin.Runoff decreased in arid areas as a result of increased water usage,but increased in humid and sub-humid areas as a result of land reclamation and mass urbanization leading to decreases in evaporation and infiltration.

Quantifying both climate and land use/cover changes on runoff variation in Han River basin, China

Climate change and land use/cover change(LUCC)can both exert great impacts on the generation processes of precipitation and runoff.However,previous studies usually neglected considering the contribution component of future LUCC in evaluating changes in hydrological cycles.In this study,an integrated framework is developed to quantify and partition the impact of climate change and LUCC on future runoff evolution.First,a daily bias correction(DBC)method and the Cellular Automaton-Markov(CA-Markov)model are used to project future climate and LUCC scenarios,and then future runoff is simulated by the calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)model with different climate and LUCC scenarios.Finally,the uncertainty of future runoff and the contribution rate of the two driving factors are systematically quantified.The Han River basin in China was selected as a case study.Results indicate that:1)both climate change and LUCC will contribute to future runoff intensification,the variation of future runoff under combined climate and LUCC is larger than these under climate change or LUCC alone;2)the projected uncertainty of median value of multi-models under RCP4.5(RCP8.5)will reach 18.14%(20.34%),12.18%(14.71%),11.01%(13.95%),and 11.41%(14.34%)at Baihe,Ankang,Danjiangkou,and Huangzhuang stations,respectively;3)the contribution rate of climate change to runoff at Baihe,Ankang,Danjiangkou,and Huangzhuang stations under RCP4.5(RCP8.5)are 91%-98%(84%-94%),while LUCC to runoff under RCP4.5(RCP8.5)only accounts for 2%-9%(6%-16%)in the annual scale.This study may provide useful adaptive strategies for policymakers on future water resources planning and management.

适用于海绵城市规划建设的北京城市副中心降水特征研究

利用气象观测站降水数据,分析了北京城市副中心所在区域日降水的时空变化特征,编制了适用于副中心的短历时暴雨强度公式,最后计算了海绵城市建设的控制目标指标——年径流总量控制率。结果表明:研究区降水量年际变化较大,降水量最多与最少年差值可达684.0 mm,年内降水量分布不均,汛期6—9月降水量(415.3 mm)占全年总降水量的75%。汛期降水量、强度和频次的日变化均为单峰位相,降水量和降水强度位相分布特征一致,主峰值出现在22时,主谷值出现在12时,降水频次主峰值出现在04时,主谷值出现在14时。降水量和强度的多年变化趋势在大部分时刻是一致的,均在凌晨和下午时间段呈增加和变强的特点,在上午、中午和夜间有减少和减弱的特点。空间分布上,北京市副中心北部地区降水量峰值大都出现在夜间,南部地区降水量峰值大都出现在清晨。对比新编暴雨强度公式和现行公式结果,当重现期越大时,新编公式对应的降水强度就越大。新编公式更加适应未来极端降水频发背景下的海绵城市设计和建设,海绵城市建设控制指标——年径流总量控制率为80%和85%时,对应的设计降水量为27.6 mm和33.9 mm。

气候变化及生态建设措施对宁夏典型入黄流域径流变化影响

为分析气候变化及植被和淤地坝等生态建设措施对径流变化的影响,选取宁夏典型入黄流域清水河和苦水河为研究对象,采用Pettitt突变方法分析研究流域气象水文和生态建设措施等要素的变异点,基于Budyko理论,通过建立水热耦合控制参数与生态建设措施的多元线性回归方程,构建耦合生态建设措施下的降水—径流模型,并对模型进行适用性评估,采用弹性系数法,量化不同生态建设措施对径流变化的贡献率。结果表明:研究流域径流均呈减小趋势,且年径流突变均发生在2000年;水热耦合控制参数与NDVI和淤地坝指数呈显著的正相关关系,引入NDVI和淤地坝指数构建的降水—径流模型模拟值接近实测值;清水河流域生态建设措施实施对径流减少的贡献率高达78.25%,其中,植被和淤地坝对径流减少贡献率分别为23.11%,46.50%,生态建设措施对径流的影响远大于气候变化对径流产生的影响。苦水河流域降水对径流减少贡献率可达47.30%,生态建设措施对苦水河径流减少贡献率为59.57%,植被和淤地坝贡献率分别为18.57%,13.96%,其他生态建设措施对径流减少贡献率为27.04%。生态建设是引起宁夏入黄流域径流变化的主要驱动因素。研究结果可为宁夏生态建设优化布局提供理论支撑。