Analysis on the Option of RMB Exchange Rate Regime

This paper analyses four effects of pegging exchange rate regime： effects on government policymaking, nominal anchor, domestic currency appreciation expectation, and currericy speculative attacks. Based on this, the paper concludes that China should give up RMB pegging exchange rate regime at present, carry out RMB floating exchange rate regime in the long term and RMB exchange rate target zone regime in the mid and short term.

Analysis of the Motion and Deformation Characteristics along the Zhangjiakou-Bohai Fault

We have collected GPS data in the period of 1999-2007 from the Crustal Motion Observation Network of China along the Zhangjiakou-Bohai fault and its adjacent regions to study the characteristics of present-day crustal horizontal motion velocities in the research zone.Strain rate components are computed in the spheric coordinate system by the least square collocation method.According to the spatial distribution of the principal strain rate,dilation rate and maximum shear strain rate derived from GPS measurements,this paper analyses the deformation of the subordinary faults of the Zhangjiakou-Bohai fault.The principal compression strain rates are apparently greater than the principal extension strain rates.The larger shear strain rate is mainly in and around the Xianghe,Wenan and Tangshan areas in Hebei Province.According to the profiles across different segments of the Zhangjiakou-Bohai fault,the three segments glong the Zhangjiakou-Bohai fault show an obviously left-lateal strike-slip and compression characteristics.By analysis of the motion characteristics of the blocks,e.g.the Yanshan block,North China Plain block,Ordos block,and Ludong-Huanghai block in and around the North China region,this paper speculates that the dynamics of the motion styles of Zhangjiakou-Bohai fault may directly come from the relative movement between the Yanshan block and the North China plain block,and the ultimate dynamics may be the results of the collison between Indian plate and Eurasian plate,and the persistent northeastward extrusion of the Indian plate.

Research on the Seismic Activity of the Lower Yangtze River-South Yellow Sea Seismic Zone

The Lower Yangtze River-South Yellow Sea Seismic Zone,located at the southeast of the Northern China Seismic Zone, characterized by moderate-strong earthquakes, is an intensive earthquake zone,which is controlled by a series of faults within the Lower Yangtze River-South Yellow Sea Seismic Zone. This article counts and calculates the bvalue,V 4 and energy density value of medium-small earthquakes by taking full advantage of the latest data from regional seismic stations,reviews data of historical earthquakes and seismic structure,and discusses the relationship between spatial distribution of the b-value, historical strong earthquakes and spatial distribution of energy density of medium-small earthquakes,and further investigates the seismic activity of the Lower Yangtze River- South Yellow Sea Seismic Zone. This article obtains seismic activity parameters of the Lower Yangtze River-South Yellow Sea Seismic Zone as calculation parameters for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis,and discusses the trend of this seismic zone in the next one hundred years and deduces the potential seismic hazard region within this seismic zone,which provides references and methods for long-term prediction on seismic activity. The research results are significant to seismic zoning, seismic safety evaluation of engineering sites and long-term prediction of seismic activity.

The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime: The Relevance of International Experience to China’s Decision

The Chinese exchange rate has been the focus of discussion for many months, with bothinternal and external considerations seemingly pointing to the desirability of a currencyrevaluation. This paper draws from the lessons of international experience with exchange-rate regimes in the period since World War Two. It lays out the conditions necessary tovalidate a fixed exchange rate and some intermediate regimes that might work when a fixedrate is inappropriate. It then discusses what the analysis implies for contemporary China.

Structural Evolution of RMB Exchange Rate Reform: Historical Review, Experience and Prospect

The Renminbi(RMB)exchange rate regime reform has gone through three stages roughly once every decade since 1994.It is a structural evolution through the unification of dual exchange rates,increased fluctuations and central parity rate reform in response to the dynamic macro environment in China and abroad.This paper unpacks leading and supporting reforms for each stage and reviews the effects.The reform has developed historical experience in adopting progressive strategies,avoiding sharp exchange rate fluctuations in the near term,maintaining appropriate capital controls,and guaranteeing the reform through domestic structural reforms.Achieving a free-floating exchange rate will be the ultimate goal,but it will not be made easily in the short run.During the transitional period,it is recommended that an annual target zone for RMB's effective exchange rate be arranged for the CFETS currency basket,along with necessary capital controls.