The two one-state-variable, rate- and state-dependent friction laws, i.e., the slip and slowness laws, are com- pared on the basis of dynamical behavior of a one-degree-of-freedom spring-slider model through numerical...The two one-state-variable, rate- and state-dependent friction laws, i.e., the slip and slowness laws, are com- pared on the basis of dynamical behavior of a one-degree-of-freedom spring-slider model through numerical simulations. Results show that two （normalized） model parameters, i.e., A （the normalized characteristic slip distance） and β-α （the difference in two normalized parameters of friction laws）, control the solutions. From given values of △, β, and α, for the slowness laws, the solution exists and the unique non-zero fixed point is stable when △〉（β-α）, yet not when △ 〈（β-α）. For the slip law, the solution exists for large ranges of model parameters and the number and stability of the non-zero fixed points change from one case to another. Results suggest that the slip law is more appropriate for controlling earthquake dynamics than the slowness law.展开更多
Using the layered viscoelastic medium model,this paper calculated the coulomb stress loading effect on the Lushan epicenter generated by the Wenchuan earthquake.Then combined with the rate-state friction law proposed ...Using the layered viscoelastic medium model,this paper calculated the coulomb stress loading effect on the Lushan epicenter generated by the Wenchuan earthquake.Then combined with the rate-state friction law proposed by Dieterich J.(1994),we obtain the probability of an0 earthquake occurring in the vicinity of Lushan.The results show that the probability of0 earthquake of the Lushan region in 2013 is up to18%,indicating that the stress disturbance caused by the Wenchuan earthquake accelerated the Lushan earthquake.This paper also calculates the coulomb stress accumulation on the"seismic gap"generated by the two earthquakes of Wenchuan and Lushan,and combined with the background seismicity,gives the6.0 earthquake probability of the"seismic gap".Although there may be a certain error in the results because of the Dayi earthquake,selection of the medium model parameters and background seismicity,the seismic probability of the"seismic gap"is increasing.Thus,we think destructive earthquakes are still likely to occur in the"seismic gap".展开更多
On May 22 nd,2021,an MS7.4 earthquake occurred near the Maduo county of the Qinghai Province,China,within the Bayan Har Block.Seismic activities have been intense in this block,thus whether the Maduo Earthquake will b...On May 22 nd,2021,an MS7.4 earthquake occurred near the Maduo county of the Qinghai Province,China,within the Bayan Har Block.Seismic activities have been intense in this block,thus whether the Maduo Earthquake will bring subsequent seismic hazards to its surrounding regions raises wide concerns.In this paper,we first calculated the Coulomb failure stress changes caused by the Maduo Earthquake on nearby faults,and estimated how much these faults are brought closer or further from their next failures based on their stressing rates.Next,we combined the Coulomb failure stress changes with the rate-state frictional law to estimate the seismicity rate in the study region in the next decade.A declustered catalogue before the Maduo Earthquake was adopted to calculate background seismicity rate,and rate-state parameters are constrained by fault slip rates.Our results show that the Maduo Earthquake increases stress accumulations in the northwestern portion of the Qingshuihe fault(0.02 MPa at maximum),the two ends of the Kunlun Mountain Pass-Jiangcuo fault(0.01 MPa at maximum),and the northwestern portion of the Maduo-Gande fault(on average~0.09 MPa),and seismicity rates are expected to increase near these faults.What is especially worth noting is the seismic hazard in the region extending from the eastern end of the Kunlun Mountain Pass-Jiangcuo fault to the Maqin-Maqu seismic gap on the Eastern Kunlun fault,which is calculated to have experienced a maximum stress increase of 0.67 MPa after the Maduo Earthquake.On the other hand,stress accumulations are reduced in the southern end of the Elashan fault,the Eastern Kunlun fault segment to the west of Maduo,and the northwestern portion of the Dari fault.Seismic hazards are expected to be low in these regions.For the study region as a whole,the probability of an M≥6 earthquake taking place in the next decade is estimated to be 59%,about twice the value calculated for the time period before the Maduo Earthquake.展开更多
基金supported by Academia Sinica (Taipei) and Science Council (Grant NSC96-2116-M-001-012-MY3).
文摘The two one-state-variable, rate- and state-dependent friction laws, i.e., the slip and slowness laws, are com- pared on the basis of dynamical behavior of a one-degree-of-freedom spring-slider model through numerical simulations. Results show that two （normalized） model parameters, i.e., A （the normalized characteristic slip distance） and β-α （the difference in two normalized parameters of friction laws）, control the solutions. From given values of △, β, and α, for the slowness laws, the solution exists and the unique non-zero fixed point is stable when △〉（β-α）, yet not when △ 〈（β-α）. For the slip law, the solution exists for large ranges of model parameters and the number and stability of the non-zero fixed points change from one case to another. Results suggest that the slip law is more appropriate for controlling earthquake dynamics than the slowness law.
基金sponsored by the 2017 Earthquake Regime Tracking Work of CEA(2017010118)
文摘Using the layered viscoelastic medium model,this paper calculated the coulomb stress loading effect on the Lushan epicenter generated by the Wenchuan earthquake.Then combined with the rate-state friction law proposed by Dieterich J.(1994),we obtain the probability of an0 earthquake occurring in the vicinity of Lushan.The results show that the probability of0 earthquake of the Lushan region in 2013 is up to18%,indicating that the stress disturbance caused by the Wenchuan earthquake accelerated the Lushan earthquake.This paper also calculates the coulomb stress accumulation on the"seismic gap"generated by the two earthquakes of Wenchuan and Lushan,and combined with the background seismicity,gives the6.0 earthquake probability of the"seismic gap".Although there may be a certain error in the results because of the Dayi earthquake,selection of the medium model parameters and background seismicity,the seismic probability of the"seismic gap"is increasing.Thus,we think destructive earthquakes are still likely to occur in the"seismic gap".
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2017YFC1500305)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41731072,41574095)。
文摘On May 22 nd,2021,an MS7.4 earthquake occurred near the Maduo county of the Qinghai Province,China,within the Bayan Har Block.Seismic activities have been intense in this block,thus whether the Maduo Earthquake will bring subsequent seismic hazards to its surrounding regions raises wide concerns.In this paper,we first calculated the Coulomb failure stress changes caused by the Maduo Earthquake on nearby faults,and estimated how much these faults are brought closer or further from their next failures based on their stressing rates.Next,we combined the Coulomb failure stress changes with the rate-state frictional law to estimate the seismicity rate in the study region in the next decade.A declustered catalogue before the Maduo Earthquake was adopted to calculate background seismicity rate,and rate-state parameters are constrained by fault slip rates.Our results show that the Maduo Earthquake increases stress accumulations in the northwestern portion of the Qingshuihe fault(0.02 MPa at maximum),the two ends of the Kunlun Mountain Pass-Jiangcuo fault(0.01 MPa at maximum),and the northwestern portion of the Maduo-Gande fault(on average~0.09 MPa),and seismicity rates are expected to increase near these faults.What is especially worth noting is the seismic hazard in the region extending from the eastern end of the Kunlun Mountain Pass-Jiangcuo fault to the Maqin-Maqu seismic gap on the Eastern Kunlun fault,which is calculated to have experienced a maximum stress increase of 0.67 MPa after the Maduo Earthquake.On the other hand,stress accumulations are reduced in the southern end of the Elashan fault,the Eastern Kunlun fault segment to the west of Maduo,and the northwestern portion of the Dari fault.Seismic hazards are expected to be low in these regions.For the study region as a whole,the probability of an M≥6 earthquake taking place in the next decade is estimated to be 59%,about twice the value calculated for the time period before the Maduo Earthquake.
