Research on the Impact of Market Concern for Real Estate Policy on Housing Prices: Evidence from Internet Search and Hedonic Price Theory

To avoid the effects of systemic financial risks caused by extreme fluctuations in housing price,the Chinese government has been exploring the most effective policies for regulating the housing market.Measuring the effect of real estate regulation policies has been a challenge for present studies.This study innovatively employs big data technology to obtain Internet search data(ISD)and construct market concern index(MCI)of policy,and hedonic price theory to construct hedonic price index(HPI)based on building area,age,ring number,and other hedonic variables.Then,the impact of market concerns for restrictive policy,monetary policy,fiscal policy,security policy,and administrative supervision policy on housing prices is evaluated.Moreover,compared with the common housing price index,the hedonic price index considers the heterogeneity of houses and could better reflect the changes in housing prices caused by market supply and demand.The results indicate that(1)a long-term interaction relationship exists between housing prices and market concerns for policy(MCP);(2)market concerns for restrictive policy and administrative supervision policy effectively restrain rising housing prices while those for monetary and fiscal policy have the opposite effect.The results could serve as a useful reference for governments aiming to stabilize their real estate markets.

Evaluation on the Process and Effects of Monetary Policies to Chinese Real Estate Market

The process of China＇s monetary policy regulation on the real estate market can be roughly divided into four stages since 1998. The first and the third stages are to raise housing price, while the second and the fourth stages are to curb housing price. There are both successful experiences and failure lessons in these stages of regulation. The present monetary policy instruments should be based on quantitative instruments, while the price instruments shall serve only as a supplement. We should use comprehensive polices including land policies, fiscal policies, legal and political means to develop a variety of specific and flexible policies to prevent financial risks, so that to fully play the important role of real estate market.

Research on the Healthy Development of China’s Real Estate Market under the background of Macro Regulation and Stock Marketing

Rising production costs, changes in the way of technological progress, the rate of decline in investment income, export-led growh is not sustainable, these factors make the Chinese economy has entered a “new normal.” This performance is the new normal economic growh rates, “stagflation” risk appears to reduce the employment pressure, increased proportion of consumption, industrial structure transition from labor-intensive to capital-intensive and knowledge-intensive, as well as increased demand for independent research and development. In the “new normal”, China should moderately lower economic growh target, deepening reform, speed up industrial restructuring and independent innovation, the implementation of the policy mix of supply and demand double expansion, demand management, or a small amount of sound monetary tightening, fiscal expansion policy mix. “Destocking” is the main task of the real estate market, due to the effect of crowding out commercial and affordable housing between the stocks is bound to affect the development of affordable housing. Faced with the real estate market structure imbalance, we should supply-side and demand-side two-pronged approach.

The analysis of the influence factors of China＇s real estate prices

The real estate market is an ilnportant part of China＇s socialist market economy. Real estate price xs not only a profound role on the level of consumption of the residents, but a profound role on the steady development of the banking sector-based financial sector. Real estate price have a significant impact not only on the development ofmacroeconomic stability, but on the safety of financial system. Chinese economy is currently on the period of transition from investment and export promotion of economic growth mode to a demand-led growth, it is an important role to China＇s economic growth for sustained and healthy development of real estate market.

限购政策对我国房地产上市企业杠杆率的影响

完善住房市场体系是国民经济中的重要议题,限购政策作为政府稳定和调节房地产市场的主要手段,对房地产企业以及住房市场体系建设均有重要而深远的影响.利用2008—2013年与2015—2021年上市房地产上市企业的相关数据,通过构建强度双重差分模型实证分析了两轮限购政策对房地产上市企业杠杆率的影响及其作用路径.结果表明:限购政策显著降低了房地产上市企业的杠杆率,但第二轮限购政策的效果不显著;对债务期限结构进行区分后,发现第一轮限购政策对房地产上市企业短期杠杆率的抑制作用更加明显;异质性分析表明:限购政策显著降低了行政级别最高的直辖市房地产上市企业的杠杆率,且对非国有房地产上市企业的影响更为显著;经济后果检验表明:限购政策推动了房地产上市企业去杠杆的同时,也抑制了房地产上市企业“脱实向虚”,降低了房地产上市企业的债务违约风险.

人口老龄化对货币政策调控房地产价格效果的影响研究

文章基于1999—2022年中国宏观经济数据,通过构建时变参数向量自回归模型(TVP-VAR)分析货币政策对于房地产价格的调控效果。实证结果表明数量型货币政策与价格型货币政策在中长期对房地产价格调节均明显衰减,同时价格型货币政策的调节效果具有显著不确定性。利用2000—2021年中国省级面板数据构建系统广义矩估计模型(System-GMM)分析人口老龄化对货币政策调控房地产价格效果的影响。结果表明人口老龄化对于数量型货币政策调控房地产价格的效果产生负面影响,但对价格型货币政策在调控房地产价格方面的影响并不显著。在人口老龄化时代背景下,为中央银行改进货币政策,提高货币政策实施效果,以应对人口老龄化并促进房地产市场稳步发展提供参考,具有重要理论与现实意义。

美国是如何应对次贷危机的?

“次贷危机”后美国政府出台了一系列措施,比较成功地化解了危机。他山之石,可以攻玉,美国应对“次贷危机”的举措为我国应对当下的房地产问题提供了有价值的借鉴。本文在简要介绍危机产生的原因、过程和经济后果的基础上,着重介绍和评述美国应对房地产危机的关键举措,包括问题资产救助计划、金融救援计划、非常规货币政策、直接救助金融机构、金融监管体系改革。以期能从中获得经验教训,服务于监管部门的政策制定,更好地防范与化解中国面临的房地产风险。

房地产债务扩张与货币政策有效性下降:理论及实证

目前中国经济面临的一个重大挑战是房地产企业的高负债率和居民部门因长期房贷负担而引起的需求疲软,这两大因素的共同作用导致货币政策效果减弱。本文基于多部门动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,探讨了房地产企业债务扩张和居民部门住房债务扩张对货币政策有效性的影响。模型的模拟结果显示,这两大因素均会削弱货币政策效果,其潜在传导机制包括信贷挤压效应和影子银行扩张替代效应。基于理论分析的结果,本文运用状态依存的局部投影方法进行了实证分析,证实了房地产企业债务扩张和居民部门住房债务扩张确实会削弱货币政策效果。此外,本文还验证了传导机制的存在。在广义的“脱实向虚”的背景下,本文的研究可以为近年来货币政策有效性下降的现象提供新的解释,并为控制房地产相关债务规模的必要性提供新的证据。

住房租赁金融发展现状、存在问题与对策研究

中央金融工作会议提出,促进金融与房地产良性循环,加快保障性住房等“三大工程”建设,构建房地产发展新模式。基于我国房地产发展新趋势,以金融支持住房租赁市场供给侧结构性改革为根本,深入探讨我国住房租赁金融发展情况。研究发现:近年来我国加大政策支持力度,推动住房租赁金融的加速发展,在传统信贷、债券、资产证券化产品及股权投资等方面进行了积极探索和实践,对促进住房租赁市场发展起到了一定的支撑作用。但受住房租赁市场低市场化结构、低回报率特性和低迷发展环境等因素影响,我国住房租赁金融发展存在规模小、金融机构参与积极性不高、金融创新不足和金融服务效能不畅等问题,住房租赁市场与金融市场的良性循环有待提升。建议加强顶层设计、强化激励措施、加快金融创新、优化配套政策,通过建立健全的住房租赁金融支持体系,促进住房租赁市场稳健发展。

什么样的长效机制政策组合促进房地产市场平稳健康发展——基于NCA和fsQCA的实证分析

什么样的政策组合促进房地产市场平稳健康发展是房地产长效机制研究的重要问题。使用NCA和fsQCA方法,从中央和地方两个层级分析了房地产长效机制的政策组态。研究发现:(1)房地产长效机制的单一政策与工具,不构成“稳房价、稳地价、稳预期”目标的必要条件;(2)中央层级的政策组合重在产业主导下的稳定逻辑,旨在为房地产业平稳健康发展塑造稳定的产业发展环境;其中,4种政策组合可以实现房价稳定,包括分别依托收入分配与立法的考核目标与货币政策驱动型、立法驱动型、财政货币政策驱动型;3种政策组合可以实现地价稳定,包括依托立法的财政货币政策驱动型、改革逻辑下的考核与收入驱动型、依托收入分配的财政驱动型;(3)地方层级的政策组合重在结构主导逻辑,所有政策组态表现出明显的结构政策主导的逻辑特征;其中,4种政策组合可以实现房价稳定,均为财税土地驱动型,分别依托住房制度、信贷政策、住房制度和信贷政策、宏观审慎政策;5种政策组合可以实现地价稳定,包括依托宏观审慎的财税驱动型、依托土地供给的信贷财税驱动型、依托财税信贷的住房制度驱动型、依托财税信贷和宏观审慎的住房税收驱动型、依托财税信贷和土地供给的住房税收驱动型。研究为我国中央和地方政府进一步完善房地产长效机制,提升政策组合效率,促进房地产市场平稳健康发展提供了依据。

LTV政策实施与银行信贷结构调整:理论模型与中国证据

本文以贷款价值比(Loan-to-Value,LTV)工具为例,基于一个扩展的DeYoung等(2015)银行信贷组合模型(DGTWmodel),并利用中国上市商业银行的信贷数据,深入研究了房地产宏观审慎政策对商业银行信贷结构的影响。结果表明:①LTV政策的实施,会降低家庭住房部门的新增信贷规模和信贷余额在总信贷中的比重,也会影响其他部门的信贷规模及在总信贷中的比重,但影响程度与该部门和家庭住房部门的信贷损失间相关系数(进而与部门间的产业关联性)有关;②相对于非繁荣期,房地产繁荣时期的LTV政策实施,对家庭住房信贷占比的影响较弱;③相对于政策收紧,LTV政策的放松会更大幅度地提升房地产信贷比重。本文的结论有助于深化理解房地产宏观审慎政策效果和优化现有政策及工具组合。

Policy spillover and regional linkage characteristics of the real estate market in China's urban agglomerations

The main purpose of this study is to determine the spillover effect of real estate regulatory policies released by core cities on the surrounding cities in major urban agglomerations based on regional linkage characteristics of China's real estate market.In this study,real estate transaction data of 157 cities were selected from 11 major urban agglomerations.Agglomeration's housing transaction volatility and spillover effect caused by the core city's regulatory policies were simulated by integrating spatial and temporal analysis model,event analysis,and symbolic time series analysis.The findings showed that(1)the regional linkage of the real estate market in the Harbin-Changchun and Middle-South Liaoning,Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River,Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta,and West Side of the Straits agglomerations were remarkably tight and the core cities'policy spillover effect was significant,of which the house purchase limitation and credit limitation policies had the widest influence;(2)the regional linkage of the real estate market in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei agglomeration,Shandong Peninsula,Guanzhong Plain,and Chengdu-Chongqing agglomerations was relatively weaker,but the core cities'policies of mar-ket regulation and taxation had certain spillover effect;(3)there were significant differ-ences in the spillover effects of different types of policies in different urban agglomerations;(4)generally,the core cities'policy spillover often reduced the changing characteristics of the real estate market and made it more ordered with more certainty in the whole agglomeration,with the exception of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,West Side of the Straits,and Chengdu-Chongqing agglomerations.

货币政策、股票价格与房价波动

深入解析货币政策、股票价格与房价三者之间关系,有助于更好协调政策、经济增长与两类市场平稳发展。据此,本文基于价格超调理论,讨论了货币政策对股票市场价格和房地产市场价格的动态影响机制。理论研究表明,货币供应量的增加在直接抬高房价的同时,还会通过股票市场的超调效应间接影响房价。进一步应用随机波动时变参数向量自回归(TVP-SV-VAR)模型从时变角度测算了货币政策对两类资产价格影响的动态关系。研究发现:第一,短期内货币政策对股价较之房价有超调效应,长期看货币政策通过股票市场间接影响房价。第二,在经济扩张期、经济收缩期以及“新常态”时期三个代表性时点上,股价均对货币政策冲击产生超调现象,且会进一步向房价传导。第三,经济收缩期房价对货币政策的响应幅度要大于经济扩张期的响应幅度;经济“新常态”时期房价对货币政策的冲击响应小于经济“旧常态”时期。第四,股价作为中介效应通常是正向的,即股价对房价具有正向拉动作用。最后,引入传统中介效应检验方法,检验货币政策对房价传导过程的中介效应,结果显示货币政策确实存在以股价为中介向房价传导的作用机制。本文的研究结果为货币当局运用货币政策,协调经济增长和股票市场、房地产市场平稳发展提供了理论依据和实证参考。

限购政策对房地产开发贷款风险的影响研究

基于2007-2019年全国50个大中城市的面板数据,运用多时点双重差分模型,分析限购政策对房地产开发贷款风险的影响。研究表明:限购政策会显著降低房地产开发贷款风险,但该抑制作用的持续时间较短,不具有长期持续的显著效果;采用平行趋势检验等稳健性检验后,结论仍然稳健;相较于非一线城市和中西部地区,限购政策对一线城市和东部地区房地产开发贷款风险的抑制作用更为显著。根据理论机制和实证结论,本文从坚持“房住不炒”战略方针、因城施策实行差异化限购政策、健全房地产开发贷款风险防控长效机制三个方面提出促进房地产市场健康运行的对策建议。

Policy Framework for the Development of Real Estate and the Real Estate Industry in China

Compared with the situation in other countries,therole played by China’s real estate and real estate industry inincreasing municipal financial resources has the followingobviously different characteristics:In most countries,land in urban areas is privatelyowned,and so are buildings.Therefore,real estate revenuescome mainly through taxation.In China,however,urbanland as well as a greater part of the urban building stock

房产税改革、宏观审慎政策与房地产市场长效机制

“房住不炒”的要求已成为中国房地产市场发展的顶层设计和长期指针,引导房地产市场良性循环发展,有助于防范系统性金融风险,更是经济高质量发展的必然要求。通过建立多部门动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,分析比较房产税、宏观审慎政策对房地产市场调控的优劣性。研究表明,面向家庭和企业的房产税均能抑制房价上涨,宽松信贷环境下征收房产税易加剧经济波动,而紧缩信贷环境叠加房产税则会导致经济“过冷”发展。提高房产税率后,房产将在不同家庭之间产生“再分配效应”,有助于改善居民收入差距。房产税政策具有显著的结构化优势,在实现社会福利改进的同时引起产出和通货膨胀的波动较小,而宏观审慎政策在防范系统性风险方面占优,同等程度冲击下,房价下降程度更高。房产税政策更符合房地产市场长效发展的内在要求,应加快构建现代房产税征收制度,探索试点范围和方式。在实践中应综合考量经济情形实施有差别、有浮动的房产税率,信贷紧约束的情形下应审慎使用房产税,当房地产市场过热时应同时叠加使用房产税和宏观审慎政策,发挥房产税的价格调控和收入分配作用。

什么样的金融政策可有效抑制房价——基于我国35个城市数据的组态分析

以我国35个城市房地产金融政策为样本,从组态视角识别房地产金融政策抑制房价的多条路径。研究发现:单个政策变量无法有效调控房价,存在三条有效调控房价的金融政策组合方案,分别是货币政策-金融宏观审慎政策互补型路径、信贷与直接融资支持政策-金融宏观审慎政策联动型驱动路径以及货币政策-信贷与直接融资支持政策-金融宏观审慎政策全面型驱动路径。

房地产市场形势变化及政策应对

今年房地产市场形势差于去年,房价持续下降,商品住宅销售面积相比高峰时期下降约30%,商品住宅新开工面积相比高峰时期下降约60%,大型民营房企多数出现债务违约。中央指出房地产市场供求关系发生重大变化,要适时调整优化房地产政策,政策应对包括更加积极的财政政策,实施“三大工程”“保交楼”工程,优化限购、限售等行业调控政策,加大对房屋销售端和房企的金融支持,助力防风险稳增长。

不确定性感知与企业数字化转型:来自房地产市场的证据

数字化转型为房地产企业实现降本提效、适应存量运营模式提供了重要契机,但经济政策不确定性的提高导致企业陷入了“不会转、没钱转、不敢转”的困境。本文利用2009—2021年我国上市公司数据,考察了经济政策不确定性对房地产企业数字化转型的影响。研究发现,经济政策不确定性显著降低了房地产企业数字化转型水平,并呈现差异性特征;机制检验显示可以通过减少投资机会、提高交易成本和增强投资同伴效应来抑制房地产企业数字化转型。据此,本文建议政府应积极建立房地产市场平稳运行的有效预期,房地产企业应积极推进数字化转型以适应未来存量运营模式的挑战,数字化服务商应提供兼顾行业共性需求和企业个性需求的数字化服务,共同助力房地产市场平稳健康发展。

地产调控政策、投资与中国经济波动

本文通过对中国2003—2021年的月度数据进行向量误差修正模型(VECM)分析表明,地产调控政策针对的主体不同,其所造成的地产业和制造业的投资联动方式也不同。为理解地产企业信贷紧缩、住房需求信贷紧缩、土地供给增加三类地产调控政策对不同行业投资决策机制的影响,以及跨部门投资联动如何影响宏观经济波动,本文构建了一个包含制造企业和地产企业的动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,并引入公司债,从资本结构视角探究地产政策对企业融资和投资决策的影响。模型能够捕捉数据中投资跨部门联动的事实,其结果表明了在三类地产调控政策中针对地产企业的信贷冲击是经济周期波动的主要源头之一。