Reserve estimation is a key to find the correct NPV in a mining project. The most important factor in reserve estimation is the metal price. Metal price fluctuations in recent years were exaggerated, and imposed a hig...Reserve estimation is a key to find the correct NPV in a mining project. The most important factor in reserve estimation is the metal price. Metal price fluctuations in recent years were exaggerated, and imposed a high degree of uncertainty to the reserve estimation, and in consequence to the whole mine planning procedure. Real option approach is an efficient method of decision making in the uncertain conditions. This approach has been used for evaluation of defined natural resources projects until now. This study considering the metal price uncertainty used real option approach to prepare a methodology for reserve estimation in open pit mines. This study was done on a copper cylindrical deposit, but the achieved methodology can be adjusted for all kinds of deposits. This methodology was comprehensively described through the examples in such a manner that can be used by the mine planners.展开更多
In order to effectively avoid the defects of a traditional discounted cash flow method, a trinomial tree pricing model of the real option is improved and used to forecast the investment price of mining. Taking Molybde...In order to effectively avoid the defects of a traditional discounted cash flow method, a trinomial tree pricing model of the real option is improved and used to forecast the investment price of mining. Taking Molybdenum ore as an example, a theoretical model for the hurdle price under the optimal investment timing is constructed. Based on the example data, the op- tion price model is simulated. By the model, mine investment price can be computed and forecast effectively. According to the characteristics of mine investment, cut-off grade, reserve estimation and mine life in different price also can be quantified. The result shows that it is reliable and practical to enhance the accuracy for mining investment decision.展开更多
The economic benefits and optimal rotation age of Larix kaempferi pulpwood plantation were analyzed under stochastic pulpwood price using real options approach in order to more effectively management to L.kaempferi pu...The economic benefits and optimal rotation age of Larix kaempferi pulpwood plantation were analyzed under stochastic pulpwood price using real options approach in order to more effectively management to L.kaempferi pulpwood plantation in northern sub-tropical alpine area.Flexible rotation age and threshold price to different stand age of different site index plantation were developed.The result indicated that:1) the optimal rotation age of L.kaempferi plantation in site index 15,17,19,21 was 25,23,21 and 19 a,respectively,as the current pulpwood price equals 500 yuan·m<sup>-3</sup>,and the shortest rotation age was 23,20,17 and 15 a when facing to better price;and 2) Wait option should be the optimum strategy in any pulpwood price level when the stand age is lower than the shortest rotation age.展开更多
文摘Reserve estimation is a key to find the correct NPV in a mining project. The most important factor in reserve estimation is the metal price. Metal price fluctuations in recent years were exaggerated, and imposed a high degree of uncertainty to the reserve estimation, and in consequence to the whole mine planning procedure. Real option approach is an efficient method of decision making in the uncertain conditions. This approach has been used for evaluation of defined natural resources projects until now. This study considering the metal price uncertainty used real option approach to prepare a methodology for reserve estimation in open pit mines. This study was done on a copper cylindrical deposit, but the achieved methodology can be adjusted for all kinds of deposits. This methodology was comprehensively described through the examples in such a manner that can be used by the mine planners.
文摘In order to effectively avoid the defects of a traditional discounted cash flow method, a trinomial tree pricing model of the real option is improved and used to forecast the investment price of mining. Taking Molybdenum ore as an example, a theoretical model for the hurdle price under the optimal investment timing is constructed. Based on the example data, the op- tion price model is simulated. By the model, mine investment price can be computed and forecast effectively. According to the characteristics of mine investment, cut-off grade, reserve estimation and mine life in different price also can be quantified. The result shows that it is reliable and practical to enhance the accuracy for mining investment decision.
文摘The economic benefits and optimal rotation age of Larix kaempferi pulpwood plantation were analyzed under stochastic pulpwood price using real options approach in order to more effectively management to L.kaempferi pulpwood plantation in northern sub-tropical alpine area.Flexible rotation age and threshold price to different stand age of different site index plantation were developed.The result indicated that:1) the optimal rotation age of L.kaempferi plantation in site index 15,17,19,21 was 25,23,21 and 19 a,respectively,as the current pulpwood price equals 500 yuan·m<sup>-3</sup>,and the shortest rotation age was 23,20,17 and 15 a when facing to better price;and 2) Wait option should be the optimum strategy in any pulpwood price level when the stand age is lower than the shortest rotation age.
