Research on Value Evaluation Method of Investment Project Based on Fuzzy Composite Real Options

Venture capital investments are characterized by high input,high yield,and high risk.Due to the complexity of the market environment,stage-by-stage investment is becoming increasingly important.Traditional evaluation methods like comparison,proportion,maturity,internal rate of return,scenario analysis,decision trees,and net present value cannot fully consider the uncertainty and stage characteristics of the project.The fuzzy real options method addresses this by combining real option theory,fuzzy number theory,and composite option theory to provide a more accurate and objective evaluation of Public-Private Partnership(PPP)projects.It effectively considers the interaction of options and the ambiguity of project parameters,making it a valuable tool for project evaluation in the context of venture capital investment.

Real option pricing method for R&D investment under changing risk-free rate and discount rate

The polynomial spline model, which belongs to the static term structure model of interest rates, is studied. Every cash flow of the project is discounted relatively accurately by obtaining the discount rate from the static term structure model of interest rates. A simple basic model, which belongs to the dynamic term structure model, is studied, and the option pricing formula under changing risk-free rates is obtained by bringing it into the option pricing formula. Both dynamic and static term structure models are estimated by the use of the data of buy-back rates and the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and an example is given to compare the differences between the traditional method and the method under the changes in the interest rates and the discount rates.

弹性退休制度下谁更愿意延迟退休?——基于Option Value模型的微观模拟

人口老龄化背景下延迟退休年龄、建立弹性退休制度是大势所趋。养老金激励是弹性退休制度的重要内容。建立期权价值模型和养老金给付及奖惩因子模型,基于中国家庭收入调查项目(CHIP2018)的数据,对不同特征人群的养老金峰值、期权价值、内部报酬率进行模拟。研究发现:养老金总财富随退休年龄“先增后减”,男性的峰值年龄早于女性;引入养老金“奖惩”机制有助于提高最优退休年龄,激励劳动者延迟退休;考虑闲暇偏好的异质性,男性参保者更倾向于早退休,而女性参保者特别是女性较高收入群体更愿意延迟退休;厌恶风险的参保者更有可能选择早退休。建议尽早建立弹性退休年龄政策体系,增加劳动者的选择权和制度灵活性;引入精算调节因子构建养老金奖惩机制,完善养老保险待遇计发办法。

4种植物源性成分多重real-time PCR检测方法的建立及其在食用淀粉中的应用

建立一种可同时快速检测红薯、木薯、马铃薯、玉米源性成分的多重实时聚合酶链式反应(real-time polymerase chain reaction,real-time PCR)方法。分别以红薯g3pdh基因、木薯g3pdh基因、马铃薯UGPase基因、玉米zSSIIb基因为靶基因设计特异性引物和TaqMan探针,以18S rRNA基因为内参基因,建立多重real-time PCR方法,开展方法学验证,并对不同掺入比例模拟样品和实际淀粉样品进行检测。结果显示,该方法具有高通量、特异性强、灵敏度高等优点。与15种非目标源性均无交叉反应;对目标DNA的检测灵敏度可达到3×10^(-3) ng/μL,且具有良好的线性关系和扩增效率;对淀粉样品的检出限可达0.1%,对50份实际样品进行检测,结果与参比方法一致,说明建立的多重real-time PCR法可用于食用淀粉种类掺假鉴别检测。

Reserve estimation of an open pit mine under price uncertainty by real option approach

Reserve estimation is a key to find the correct NPV in a mining project. The most important factor in reserve estimation is the metal price. Metal price fluctuations in recent years were exaggerated, and imposed a high degree of uncertainty to the reserve estimation, and in consequence to the whole mine planning procedure. Real option approach is an efficient method of decision making in the uncertain conditions. This approach has been used for evaluation of defined natural resources projects until now. This study considering the metal price uncertainty used real option approach to prepare a methodology for reserve estimation in open pit mines. This study was done on a copper cylindrical deposit, but the achieved methodology can be adjusted for all kinds of deposits. This methodology was comprehensively described through the examples in such a manner that can be used by the mine planners.

Integration of real options into short-term mine planning and production scheduling

Commodity prices have fallen sharply due to the global financial crisis. This has adversely affected the viability of some mining projects, including leading to the possibility of bankruptcy for some companies. These price falls reflect uncertainties and risks associated with mining projects. In recent years, much work has been published related to the application of real options pricing theory to value life-of-mine plans in response to long term financial uncertainty and risk. However, there are uncertainties and risks associated with medium/short-term mining operations. Real options theory can also be applied to tactical decisions involving uncertainties and risks. This paper will investigate the application of real options in the mining industry and present a methodology developed at University of Queensland, Australia, for integrating real options into medium/short-term mine planning and production scheduling. A case study will demonstrate the validity and usefulness of the methodology and techniques developed.

Investment in deepwater oil and gas exploration projects:a multi-factor analysis with a real options model

Deepwater oil and gas projects embody high risks from geology and engineering aspects, which exert substantial influence on project valuation. But the uncer- tainties may be converted to additional value to the projects in the case of flexible management. Given the flexibility of project management, this paper extends the classical real options model to a multi-factor model which contains oil price, geology, and engineering uncertainties. It then gives an application example of the new model to evaluate deepwater oil and gas projects with a numerical analytical method. Compared with other methods and models, this multi-factor real options model contains more project information. It reflects the potential value deriving not only from oil price variation but also from geology and engi- neering uncertainties, which provides more accurate and reliable valuation information for decision makers.

Real Option and Valuation of CNOOC Ltd

This paper introduces a real option approach to valuation of oil companies and uses the real option pricing model to value CNOOC Ltd. at the time of its IPO. The empirical result shows that the option pricing value of CNOOC Ltd. exceeds its IPO price at about 21%.

Franchise ownership redirection:real options perspective

Background:For over 40 years,the franchise ownership redirection hypothesis has attracted the attention of many scholars.This study,differing from previous ones,proposes an alternative approach for this hypothesis using a real options framework with the extension of agency theory.Method:The real options model is built using the least square Monte Carlo method,where the franchisor’s decision to franchise is perceived as a deferred investment while maintaining the right of future acquisition.Result:Tested using monte carlo simulation based hypothetical case,the model shows a different result from classical real options call model.This is mainly due to franchise contractual arrangement,where royalty fee lower the threshold of acquisition cost in converting the franchise outlet to company owned.Conclusion:The aim of this study is to create an analytical framework that helps a franchisor decide whether or not toacquire and convert a franchise unit to a company-owned unit at a certain point in time,analyzing the choice as a deferment of investment.The franchisors that faces the opportunity to optimize profit by converting the franchise unit to a company-owned unit should acknowledge it as real options thus negotiate the terms with their franchisees.

Real Options and Govemment Supports to Infrastructure Investments： An Empirical Study

This paper provides evidence for the relationship between various forms of real options in infrastructure projects and the types and levels of government supports to the infrastructure investments. It analyzes the common real options and real options-based strategic investments and aligns them with the common types of public-private partnership （PPP） infrastructure projects. It then develops models to show that the real options incorporated into the different types of PPP infrastructure projects affect the level of direct government cash supports to the projects and hence the viabilities of such projects. The paper however shows that the relationship between the embedded real options and viabilities of infrastructure projects can be influenced by such factors as contract period and percentage of private sector contributions to the projects.

基于IUV_5G Option3X架构网络规划与部署设计

本文基于IUV_5G Option3X架构,详细阐述了5G网络的规划与部署设计过程。首先介绍了5G NSA组网架构的背景和优势,然后深入探讨了IUV_5G全网部署与优化虚拟仿真平台的功能和应用。重点描述了核心网、无线网和承载网的部署过程,包括设备部署、数据配置和线路连接等具体步骤。通过业务验证确认了网络部署的成功,并对5G技术的未来发展进行了展望。

The Real Option Game Model to the Technology Innovation Investment Strategy

The real option game theory is a new effective method to analyze the project investment decision containing uncertain factors in the incomplete competition circumstance. Based on the introduction of the development of real option game method, this paper puts forward a real option game model to research on the investment opportunity and investment strategy of technology innovation involved two competitors. The varies of the value of project bring on three kinds of game equilibrium, that is the corporate investment equilibrium strategy, the leader ＆ follower investment equilibrium strategy and the corporate delay equilibrium strategy.

Application of the Option Game Theory to the Real Estate Enterprise Investment Decision

One of the remarkable characteristics of the current development of China's national economy is the increase of uncertainties, which makes the traditional method more and more unsuitable for the current economic development in the real estate investment process. Based on the option game theory, the investment decision making of real estate is analyzed here, the investment optimization mathematic model established, and Nash Equilibrium discussed. Through case studies, we analyze the application of game option in the real estate, which is put under symmetrical duopoly. The conclusions will contribute to both the theory on and practice of the present investment in the real estate enterprise.

Analysis of Studies from 2000-2010 in Real Option Theory and Application to OM

Traditional project investment methods, such as the discounted cash flow (DCF) with a fixed static plan, are no longer sufficient to assist the corporate strategies of seizing opportunities and profitability. The option pricing formula includes a theoretical framework for pricing financial options, assuming that the risk in a financial hedged position is zero, if the option is adjusted continuously in a short position. Hence, the real options revolution arose in response to the dissatisfaction of corporation practitioners with traditional capital budgeting techniques, such as standard discount cash flow. This paper analyzes relevant articles from the “Journal of Operations Management” and “Management Sciences” as related to real options theory in the field of operations management. The goal of this study is to review and identify the gaps in application to real option theory in their studies. Finally, this paper provides suggestions for future researchers.

R & D project's investment evaluation based on real option and its value at risk

The authors looked upon it as real options and applied the VaR(Value at Risk) method to the evaluation of its risk value based on the analysis of R & D project investment characteristics,and advanced the evaluation model of the project’s return and risk according to financial theories.This paper expounded the two dimension evaluation model of project,and divided it into five decision making regions.

Trinomial tree model of the real options approach used in mining investment price forecast and analysis

In order to effectively avoid the defects of a traditional discounted cash flow method, a trinomial tree pricing model of the real option is improved and used to forecast the investment price of mining. Taking Molybdenum ore as an example, a theoretical model for the hurdle price under the optimal investment timing is constructed. Based on the example data, the op- tion price model is simulated. By the model, mine investment price can be computed and forecast effectively. According to the characteristics of mine investment, cut-off grade, reserve estimation and mine life in different price also can be quantified. The result shows that it is reliable and practical to enhance the accuracy for mining investment decision.

The Application of Expand Option of Real Options in Human Resources Evaluation

The traditional models of evaluating human resources are mainly based upon the discounted value of future payment, but these models fail to take the employment risk into account, and often neglect the uncertainty and underes- timate the human resource value. This paper first introduces the option theory, and then presents human resources as the real commodity for the call option. Second, concerning the choices for the uncertainty decision, the decisions of delay- ing the employment of the human resources, expanding or deducing the scale of human resources, giving up or chang- ing human resources, etc., are made to deal with the future uncertainties appropriately. This will cause the investment to be more beneficial or to reduce the loss. Finally, the expand option theory of real options is used to evaluate the value of reinvestment in human resources, and the expand option theory could be provided as a reference for management im- plementation and decision-making in human resources.

Using Real Option to Frame E-commerce Investment Problem

Due to great business potential in E-commerce, the traditional method is not an appropriate technique to make investment decision. Consequently, a new approach--Real Option should be applied. Based on the characteristics of investment in E-commerce, this paper analyzes the function and advantages of the Real Option and the differences between the NPV and Real Option.

血-迷路屏障通透性与突聋发病机制及预后的关系:在3D real IR的发现

目的分析突聋患者的内耳钆造影MRI三维真实重建反转恢复(three dimensional real inversion recovery,3D real IR)成像上的表现,探讨血-迷路屏障的通透性与突聋发病机制及其预后的关系。方法对41例单侧突聋患者行内耳钆造影MRI,测量患耳和健耳的耳蜗信号强度,并测量延髓信号强度,分别计算出耳蜗/延髓比值(cochlear/medulla ratio,CM ratio),以CM比值作为血-迷路屏障通透性的标志物,分析突聋患者患耳、健耳CM比值的不对称程度与疗效之间的关系。结果41例患者中,33例(80.48%)患耳的CM比值高于健耳,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);患耳CM比值为健耳的1.5倍以下者18例,治疗有效率为77.78%(14/18);患侧CM比值不高于健侧者8例,治疗有效率为100%;达到健耳的1.5倍至1.75倍之间者7例,治疗有效率为100%(7/7);达到健耳的1.75倍至2.0倍之间者2例,治疗有效率为50%(1/2);达到健耳的2.0倍以上者14例,治疗有效率为14.28%(12/14);差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论内耳3D Real IR可显示突聋患者血-迷路屏障通透性的改变,80.48%的突聋患者患侧耳蜗出现高信号,患耳CM比值达健耳的1.75倍以上者多数预后不良。

基于兴趣函数的多样化Option-Critic算法

Option框架作为分层强化学习的一种常用时序抽象方法,允许智能体在不同的时间尺度上学习策略,可以有效解决稀疏奖励问题.为了保证Option可以引导智能体访问更多的状态空间,一些方法通过引入基于互信息的内部奖励和终止函数来提升Option内部策略的多样性.但这会导致算法学习速度慢和内部策略的知识迁移能力低等问题,严重影响了算法性能.针对以上问题,提出基于兴趣函数优化的多样化Option-Critic算法(diversity-enriched Option-Critic algorithm with interest functions,DEOC-IF).该算法在多样化Option-Critic算法(diversity-enriched Option-Critic,DEOC)的基础上,通过引入兴趣函数约束上层策略对Option内部策略的选择,既保证了Option集合的多样性,又使得学习到的内部策略可以关注状态空间的不同区域,有利于提高算法的知识迁移能力,加快学习速度.此外,DEOC-IF算法引入一种新的兴趣函数更新梯度,有利于提高算法的探索能力.为了验证算法的有效性和知识迁移能力,分别在4房间导航任务、Mujoco和MiniWorld实验环境中,将DEOC-IF算法与其他最新算法进行对比实验.结果表明,DEOC-IF算法具有更好的性能优势和策略迁移能力.