In order to effectively avoid the defects of a traditional discounted cash flow method, a trinomial tree pricing model of the real option is improved and used to forecast the investment price of mining. Taking Molybde...In order to effectively avoid the defects of a traditional discounted cash flow method, a trinomial tree pricing model of the real option is improved and used to forecast the investment price of mining. Taking Molybdenum ore as an example, a theoretical model for the hurdle price under the optimal investment timing is constructed. Based on the example data, the op- tion price model is simulated. By the model, mine investment price can be computed and forecast effectively. According to the characteristics of mine investment, cut-off grade, reserve estimation and mine life in different price also can be quantified. The result shows that it is reliable and practical to enhance the accuracy for mining investment decision.展开更多
Reserve estimation is a key to find the correct NPV in a mining project. The most important factor in reserve estimation is the metal price. Metal price fluctuations in recent years were exaggerated, and imposed a hig...Reserve estimation is a key to find the correct NPV in a mining project. The most important factor in reserve estimation is the metal price. Metal price fluctuations in recent years were exaggerated, and imposed a high degree of uncertainty to the reserve estimation, and in consequence to the whole mine planning procedure. Real option approach is an efficient method of decision making in the uncertain conditions. This approach has been used for evaluation of defined natural resources projects until now. This study considering the metal price uncertainty used real option approach to prepare a methodology for reserve estimation in open pit mines. This study was done on a copper cylindrical deposit, but the achieved methodology can be adjusted for all kinds of deposits. This methodology was comprehensively described through the examples in such a manner that can be used by the mine planners.展开更多
文摘In order to effectively avoid the defects of a traditional discounted cash flow method, a trinomial tree pricing model of the real option is improved and used to forecast the investment price of mining. Taking Molybdenum ore as an example, a theoretical model for the hurdle price under the optimal investment timing is constructed. Based on the example data, the op- tion price model is simulated. By the model, mine investment price can be computed and forecast effectively. According to the characteristics of mine investment, cut-off grade, reserve estimation and mine life in different price also can be quantified. The result shows that it is reliable and practical to enhance the accuracy for mining investment decision.
文摘Reserve estimation is a key to find the correct NPV in a mining project. The most important factor in reserve estimation is the metal price. Metal price fluctuations in recent years were exaggerated, and imposed a high degree of uncertainty to the reserve estimation, and in consequence to the whole mine planning procedure. Real option approach is an efficient method of decision making in the uncertain conditions. This approach has been used for evaluation of defined natural resources projects until now. This study considering the metal price uncertainty used real option approach to prepare a methodology for reserve estimation in open pit mines. This study was done on a copper cylindrical deposit, but the achieved methodology can be adjusted for all kinds of deposits. This methodology was comprehensively described through the examples in such a manner that can be used by the mine planners.
