Deepwater oil and gas projects embody high risks from geology and engineering aspects, which exert substantial influence on project valuation. But the uncer- tainties may be converted to additional value to the projec...Deepwater oil and gas projects embody high risks from geology and engineering aspects, which exert substantial influence on project valuation. But the uncer- tainties may be converted to additional value to the projects in the case of flexible management. Given the flexibility of project management, this paper extends the classical real options model to a multi-factor model which contains oil price, geology, and engineering uncertainties. It then gives an application example of the new model to evaluate deepwater oil and gas projects with a numerical analytical method. Compared with other methods and models, this multi-factor real options model contains more project information. It reflects the potential value deriving not only from oil price variation but also from geology and engi- neering uncertainties, which provides more accurate and reliable valuation information for decision makers.展开更多
The objective of this research will be to calculate the feasibility of investing in a solar energy generation project through the development of a methodology that allows the capture of environmental uncertainties by ...The objective of this research will be to calculate the feasibility of investing in a solar energy generation project through the development of a methodology that allows the capture of environmental uncertainties by improving decision making. The article presents a comparative study of the feasibility analysis of investment in a solar mini solar energy for a Shopping, considering a regime of certainty and uncertainty. The assumed stochastic variables were energy tariff and price of solar panels. The trajectories were simulated with the binomial approach that combined resulted in a quadratic diagram. The applied methodology presented the best recommendation and the option to wait was the most valuable. The exchange of the energy obtained from LIGHT by own generation of energy with solar photovoltaic source will be viable for the manager since it observes the behavior of the variables over time and follows the rules of optimal decision.展开更多
There are many kinds of real options,which are valuable,in each phase of the lifetime of an information technology(IT)project.However,in the current IT investment decision theory,real options that embedded in IT proje...There are many kinds of real options,which are valuable,in each phase of the lifetime of an information technology(IT)project.However,in the current IT investment decision theory,real options that embedded in IT projects are not considered. In this paper, the process of IT project decision and implementation is fully analyzed, the real options that may be embedded in an IT project are identified, and a real option analysis (ROA) method is proposed for evaluation of an IT project under uncertain business environment. ROA employs Black-Scholes expansion model and cancels the assumption that the cost of project is certain. The numerical example manifests that the ROA can better evaluate IT project and select the IT investment alternative. Finally, a road map is provided to help selecting the suitable evaluation method to make IT investment decision.展开更多
基金supported from the National Science and Technology Major Project under Grant No.2011ZX05030
文摘Deepwater oil and gas projects embody high risks from geology and engineering aspects, which exert substantial influence on project valuation. But the uncer- tainties may be converted to additional value to the projects in the case of flexible management. Given the flexibility of project management, this paper extends the classical real options model to a multi-factor model which contains oil price, geology, and engineering uncertainties. It then gives an application example of the new model to evaluate deepwater oil and gas projects with a numerical analytical method. Compared with other methods and models, this multi-factor real options model contains more project information. It reflects the potential value deriving not only from oil price variation but also from geology and engi- neering uncertainties, which provides more accurate and reliable valuation information for decision makers.
文摘The objective of this research will be to calculate the feasibility of investing in a solar energy generation project through the development of a methodology that allows the capture of environmental uncertainties by improving decision making. The article presents a comparative study of the feasibility analysis of investment in a solar mini solar energy for a Shopping, considering a regime of certainty and uncertainty. The assumed stochastic variables were energy tariff and price of solar panels. The trajectories were simulated with the binomial approach that combined resulted in a quadratic diagram. The applied methodology presented the best recommendation and the option to wait was the most valuable. The exchange of the energy obtained from LIGHT by own generation of energy with solar photovoltaic source will be viable for the manager since it observes the behavior of the variables over time and follows the rules of optimal decision.
文摘There are many kinds of real options,which are valuable,in each phase of the lifetime of an information technology(IT)project.However,in the current IT investment decision theory,real options that embedded in IT projects are not considered. In this paper, the process of IT project decision and implementation is fully analyzed, the real options that may be embedded in an IT project are identified, and a real option analysis (ROA) method is proposed for evaluation of an IT project under uncertain business environment. ROA employs Black-Scholes expansion model and cancels the assumption that the cost of project is certain. The numerical example manifests that the ROA can better evaluate IT project and select the IT investment alternative. Finally, a road map is provided to help selecting the suitable evaluation method to make IT investment decision.
