The main purpose of this study was to forecast the inflow to Hongze Lake using the Xin'anjiang rainfall-runoff model.The upper area of Hongze Lake in the Huaihe Basin was divided into 23 sub-basins,including the s...The main purpose of this study was to forecast the inflow to Hongze Lake using the Xin'anjiang rainfall-runoff model.The upper area of Hongze Lake in the Huaihe Basin was divided into 23 sub-basins,including the surface of Hongze Lake.The influence of reservoirs and gates on flood forecasting was considered in a practical and simple way.With a one-day time step,the linear and non-linear Muskingum method was used for channel flood routing,and the least-square regression model was used for real-time correction in flood forecasting.Representative historical data were collected for the model calibration.The hydrological model parameters for each sub-basin were calibrated individually,so the parameters of the Xin'anjiang model were different for different sub-basins.This flood forecasting system was used in the real-time simulation of the large flood in 2005 and the results are satisfactory when compared with measured data from the flood.展开更多
Accurate and reliable flood forecast is crucial for efficient real-time river management,including flood control,flood warning,reservoir operation and river regulation.In order to improve the estimate of the initial s...Accurate and reliable flood forecast is crucial for efficient real-time river management,including flood control,flood warning,reservoir operation and river regulation.In order to improve the estimate of the initial state of the forecasting system and to reduce the errors in the forecast period a data assimilation procedure was often need.The Kalman filter was proven to be an efficient method to adjust real-time flood series and improve the initial conditions before the forecast.A new model integrating the hydraulic model with the Kalman filter for real-time correction of flood forecast was developed and applied in the Three Gorges interzone of the Yangtze River.The method was calibrated and verified against the observed flood stage and discharge during Three Gorges Dam construction periods(2004).The results demonstrate that the new model incorporates an accurate and fast updating technique can improve the reliability of the flood forecast.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 50479017)the Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Teams in Universities (Grant No. IRT071)
文摘The main purpose of this study was to forecast the inflow to Hongze Lake using the Xin'anjiang rainfall-runoff model.The upper area of Hongze Lake in the Huaihe Basin was divided into 23 sub-basins,including the surface of Hongze Lake.The influence of reservoirs and gates on flood forecasting was considered in a practical and simple way.With a one-day time step,the linear and non-linear Muskingum method was used for channel flood routing,and the least-square regression model was used for real-time correction in flood forecasting.Representative historical data were collected for the model calibration.The hydrological model parameters for each sub-basin were calibrated individually,so the parameters of the Xin'anjiang model were different for different sub-basins.This flood forecasting system was used in the real-time simulation of the large flood in 2005 and the results are satisfactory when compared with measured data from the flood.
基金the National Science and Technology Planning (Grant No. 2006BAC05B02)
文摘Accurate and reliable flood forecast is crucial for efficient real-time river management,including flood control,flood warning,reservoir operation and river regulation.In order to improve the estimate of the initial state of the forecasting system and to reduce the errors in the forecast period a data assimilation procedure was often need.The Kalman filter was proven to be an efficient method to adjust real-time flood series and improve the initial conditions before the forecast.A new model integrating the hydraulic model with the Kalman filter for real-time correction of flood forecast was developed and applied in the Three Gorges interzone of the Yangtze River.The method was calibrated and verified against the observed flood stage and discharge during Three Gorges Dam construction periods(2004).The results demonstrate that the new model incorporates an accurate and fast updating technique can improve the reliability of the flood forecast.
