THE IMPACTS OF INTERACTION OF A TYPHOON WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH ON ITS TRACK AFTER THE RECURVATURE

Three typhoon cases are selected to conduct a series of simulations that are initialized from sequential analyses. The results show that the forecast error in crucial area where a tropical cyclone(TC) interactes with the upstream trough is highly correlated to the track forecast error after the TC recurvature. Furthermore, sensitivity experiments confirm that the developments of the midlatitude downstream circulations and then the TC track after its recurvature are highly sensitive to the TC intensity and its location relative to the upstream trough, which can give an example or one way of sensitivity of the TC track to the TC-trough interaction. If the TC interacts with the upstream trough more strongly(e.g., the TC being intensified or getting closer to the upstream trough), the downstream circulations will be more meridional, thus the TC track will be more northerly and westerly; otherwise, the downstream circulations will be more zonal, and the TC track will be more southerly and easterly.

Application of high-level environmental field factor in TC's sudden recurvature process

Using the 6-hourly reanalysis data of European Center ERA-Interim with horizontal resolution of 0.25°×0.25°and hourly typhoon operational data provided by the CMA(China Meteorological Administration),a new high-level environmental field factor is derived,and its application during the recurvature period of No.14 Typhoon Yagi and No.18 Typhoon Rumbia in 2018 is compared and analyzed.According to the comparison study,there is always a clear positive abnormal value area of high-level environmental field factor on the northeast of Rumbia during its northward movement,implying an obvious alteration of ∇·u and a big negative gradient of ∇u on the northeast of Rumbia.With the eastward movement of the westerly trough and the strengthening of the subtropical westerly jet,Rumbia is expected to veer northeast.However,the change of high-level environmental field factor on the northeast of Yagi is not noticeable,and Yagi is far away from the upper-level jet stream,which is not conducive to Yagi's northeast recurvature.

AN ANALYSIS OF RECURVATURE AND DECAY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ‘MADI’(2013) OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL

The track of tropical cyclone‘Madi’showed almost 180° turn around,while immediately after recurvature it decayed rapidly in the following 24 hours.Sea surface temperature(SST)analyses rule out confrontation with low SST as cause of weakening.At 0000 UTC of 9 December 2013 diabatic heating(DH),potential vorticity(PV)and vertical wind shear(VWS)were favourable for intensification.However,a dry area close to the system centre at mid-troposphere subsequently engulfed the middle strata and the mid-tropospheric relative humidity(MTH)drastically reduced on 0000 UTC of 10 December 2013.The MTH further reduced on 0000 UTC of 11 December 2013.Lack of moisture in mid-troposphere apparently caused a mutation within the structure causing a sudden decrease in elevation.As the system dried up,reduction in convection above 400 h Pa hindered latent heat release.PV above 400 h Pa decreased significantly.Eventually,there was a spurt of VWS at 1200 UTC of the 10December 2013.The opposite wind flow between lower level and upper level whisked away the top of the system to northeast.Under the influence of the net northeasterly flow in lower to middle troposphere,the miniature vortex recurved southwestward and the vertical distortion due to shear weakened the system into a depression.

Track Patterns of Landfalling and Coastal Tropical Cyclones in the Atlantic Basin, Their Relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Potential Effect of Global Warming

Even though the degree of damage inflicted by North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) is highly dependent upon track location and proximity to land, the spatial characteristics of TCs are generally understudied. We investigated the spatial relationships between landfall locations and track patterns of all Cape Verde-type landfalling and coastal TCs that have affected the continental coastline of the western Atlantic Basin by region for the period 1851-2008. The degree of recurvature for these TCs increases progressively from the Central America/Caribbean coast (CA) through the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), Florida peninsula (FLOR), and Atlantic (ATL) coasts. The date (month) of occurrence shows similar increases from the GOM through ATL. These patterns for landfall location, track pattern, and occurrence date generally follow the intra-seasonal movement and intensity variations of the Bermuda High (BH), as represented by increasing North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index values from CA through FLOR. Analysis suggests that the region of landfall is primarily controlled by two factors: the amplitude of track recurvature and the longitude at which recurvature begins to dominate track shape. Both of these important steering controls are predominantly influenced by the strength and position of the BH, with increasing strength and/or more northeasterly position of the BH progressively driving landfall from Central America through the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic seaboard out to the open sea. The paleorecord suggests that the latitudinal position of the BH exerts an important control over the location of hurricane landfall along the western North Atlantic on millennial time scales. This suggests that global warming may result in a northern shift in TC tracks and increased frequency of landfalls in northern locations.

SOME SPECIAL CHARACTERISTICS OF TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TYPHOONS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

Joint Typhoon Warning Center(JTWC) Best Track data from 1995 to 2014 are processed to examine some specific patterns and trends shown by Typhoons over the Western North Pacific. With a multivariate dataset of 588 TC cases in hand, we carry out a sub-domain analysis by dividing the Western North Pacific region into domains of 2°x2° and find the preferred regions of genesis, favourable direction of movement, steep recurvature, rapid intensification, and rapid decay. The region from longitude 132°E to 134°E and latitude 16°N to 18°N showed the highest number of cases(19) for rapid intensification(RI) and a general pattern is found that the RI systems occurred mostly in the later half of the year with a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) index. Similarly, the domain from longitude 114°E to 116°E and latitude 26°N to 28°N had the highest probability of 0.857 for rapid decay. The probabilities of recurvature for each sub-domain were calculated for angles 30°, 45°, 60°, 90°, 120° and 150°. The sub-domain around longitude 118°E and latitude 12°N had the steepest recurve of 168.69°. It also had a high probability of 0.714 for a recurvature of greater than 90°. The most taken direction of movement of typhoons around the Western North Pacific were analysed in different ways and along the 16 points of compass, the direction from 270° to 292.5° was found to be the most preferred direction of movement.