Forecast Grain “Three Quantities” Based on Grey GM (1, 1) and Promote the Structural Reform of Grain Supply Side

As a special product, the cultivation and production of grain directly affect the consumption of people, which has an important influence on the development of social economy and the national economy and people’s livelihood. Firstly, the present situation of grain production is analyzed, and the problems facing the structural reform of grain supply side in China are analyzed from grain output and its import and export volume. Secondly, we use grey GM (1, 1) model to predict grain output and consumption, grain import and export volume and all kinds of grain crops output in China, and then analyze the future trend of grain production in China. Finally, we put forward construction of grain branding, rational allocation of grain planting varieties, construction of traceability system for grain production, further grain processing and development of “Internet agriculture” industrial model to promote structural reform of grain supply side.

Study on Fluctuation of Grain Yield in China's Major Grain Producing Areas

By using the statistical data of grain yield in China's major grain producing areas from 1949 to 2008,and fluctuation theory,the historical process and main cause of fluctuation of grain yield in China's major grain producing areas are analyzed.The results of research show that the grain yield in China's major grain producing areas grows in unstable fluctuation,with high-frequency fluctuation cycle and regular length;the amplitude of fluctuation,on the whole,is moderate,with not strong stability;the fluctuation of grain yield has correspondence,reflecting the N-shape developmental trend of grain production at present;the fluctuation of grain yield has gradient characteristics;in the process of comparison of grain yield,the average growth rate annually of grain yield in China's major grain producing areas is higher than that of the national average,but the relative fluctuation coefficient is also higher than that of the national average.From five aspects,namely natural disaster,agricultural policy,production input,grain price and grain circulation,the cause of fluctuation of grain yield in China's major grain producing areas is analyzed,and measures of preventing and arresting super-long fluctuation of grain yield are put forward.Firstly,stick to strict farmland protection system,and strive to promote farmland quality;secondly,strengthen infrastructure construction of grain production and beef up the ability of preventing natural disaster;thirdly,quicken the pace of agricultural technology and establish robust technology supporting system;fourthly,lay stress on innovation of agricultural organization system and provide implementation path and vehicle for application of agricultural technology measures;fifthly,perfect disaster precaution system and grain market system,and strengthen the ability of preventing risk of grain production.

Study on the "Going out" Strategy in Reform of the Supply Front for Agriculture

The three rural issues have been always valued by all circles. At present,the main conflict of agriculture in China has been changed from insufficient total amount to structural conflict. Thus,deeply promoting the reform of agricultural supply front has become a primary work in rural areas. It is required to follow the national grain security strategy based on domestic supply and moderate imports,to ensure production capacity. Besides,China should make full use of domestic and foreign markets and resources to protect the domestic agricultural consumption demand,which is favorable for resolving the current structural conflict and also favorable for sustainable agricultural development.

Quantifying major sources of uncertainty in projecting the impact of climate change on wheat grain yield in dryland environments

Modelling the impact of climate change on cropping systems is crucial to support policy-making for farmers and stakeholders.Nevertheless,there exists inherent uncertainty in such cases.General Circulation Models(GCMs)and future climate change scenarios(different Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs)in different future time periods)are among the major sources of uncertainty in projecting the impact of climate change on crop grain yield.This study quantified the different sources of uncertainty associated with future climate change impact on wheat grain yield in dryland environments(Shiraz,Hamedan,Sanandaj,Kermanshah and Khorramabad)in eastern and southern Iran.These five representative locations can be categorized into three climate classes:arid cold(Shiraz),semi-arid cold(Hamedan and Sanandaj)and semi-arid cool(Kermanshah and Khorramabad).Accordingly,the downscaled daily outputs of 29 GCMs under two RCPs(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)in the near future(2030s),middle future(2050s)and far future(2080s)were used as inputs for the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator(APSIM)-wheat model.Analysis of variance(ANOVA)was employed to quantify the sources of uncertainty in projecting the impact of climate change on wheat grain yield.Years from 1980 to 2009 were regarded as the baseline period.The projection results indicated that wheat grain yield was expected to increase by 12.30%,17.10%,and 17.70%in the near future(2030s),middle future(2050s)and far future(2080s),respectively.The increases differed under different RCPs in different future time periods,ranging from 11.70%(under RCP4.5 in the 2030s)to 20.20%(under RCP8.5 in the 2080s)by averaging all GCMs and locations,implying that future wheat grain yield depended largely upon the rising CO2 concentrations.ANOVA results revealed that more than 97.22% of the variance in future wheat grain yield was explained by locations,followed by scenarios,GCMs,and their interactions.Specifically,at the semi-arid climate locations(Hamedan,Sanandaj,Kermanshah and Khorramabad),most of the variations arose from the scenarios(77.25%),while at the arid climate location(Shiraz),GCMs(54.00%)accounted for the greatest variation.Overall,the ensemble use of a wide range of GCMs should be given priority to narrow the uncertainty when projecting wheat grain yield under changing climate conditions,particularly in dryland environments characterized by large fluctuations in rainfall and temperature.Moreover,the current research suggested some GCMs(e.g.,the IPSL-CM5B-LR,CCSM4,and BNU-ESM)that made moderate effects in projecting the impact of climate change on wheat grain yield to be used to project future climate conditions in similar environments worldwide.

Current Situations and Recommendations for Non-grain Tendency of Farmland in Anhui Province

This paper firstly sorted out current situations of farmland protection and increasingly significant non-grain of farmland in Anhui Province in recent years.Then,it made an in-depth analysis on causes for non-grain problem,and analyzed adverse influence on national grain security.On this basis,it came up with recommendations for alleviating non-grain problem of farmland in Anhui Province:strictly protecting capital farmland,reasonably guiding distribution and scale of grain production;treating non-grain problem of farmland according to specific situations;reforming and improving grain subsidy policy;establishing a new agricultural land circulation mechanism with family farm as subjects,other types as supplements,and access and supervision system as guarantee.

Minister Zhang Haoruo on China's Circulation Reform

While China’s internal market potential is getting more and more tempting, Minister Zhang Haoruo of Internal Trade says in the years to come the retail, wholesale and material sectors will be freed up for foreign investment. Foreign businessmen will be welcome to compete in China. The Minister disclose "t that 11 cities had been approved to experiment

Changes in grain-size and sedimentation rate of the Neogene Red Clay deposits along the Chinese Loess Plateau and implications for the palaeowind system

The wind system responsible for transporting dust onto the Chinese Loess Plateau during the late Miocene and Pliocene is still unknown and recent investigations highlight many controversies. This report aims to investigate spatiotemporal changes in grain-size and sedi- mentation rate of the Neogene Red Clay deposits in north China and to explore palaeoclimatic changes during the late Miocene and Pliocene, in particular the palaeowind system that trans- ported dust. Samples were collected from eight Red Clay sections on the Loess Plateau. Meas- urement and analysis show that there is a clear southward decrease in the mean grain-size index and in the coarse particle fraction (>20 μm). At Jiaxian site on the northern Loess Plateau, the average mean grain-size is around 20 μm, while at Lantian site in the south, the mean is around 9 μm. The coarse particle fraction >20 μm makes up 24.4% and 5.6%, at the two sites respec- tively. This distinct diversity of grain-size in the aeolian Red Clay deposit between the north and south indicate that the palaeodust was transported mainly by northerly low-level winds. The grain-size variations in the Red Clay deposits can also be divided into three stages (the lower, the middle and the upper interval): grain-size of the lower stage is significantly coarser than that of the middle stage, but finer than that of the upper stage. As a consequence, the intensity of pa- laeowind and desiccation of the dust source region during the late Miocene and Pliocene can be divided into three stages: 6.2―5.4 Ma, 5.4―3.5 Ma and 3.5―2.6 Ma. Strength of the palaeowind during the middle stage (5.4―3.5 Ma) is weaker than that of the previous and subsequent stages and the intensity of palaeowind during the latest stage (3.5―2.6 Ma) is stronger than that of the early time (6.2―5.4 Ma). Variations in the sedimentation rate of the Red Clay deposit can also be divided into three stages: the earlier, the middle and the later interval. The sedimentation rate of the earlier stage is higher than during the middle stage, but lower than during the later one. This is a clear indicator of changes in the palaeowind intensity and aridity in the dust source region and may be linked with global ice volume changes during the late Miocene and the Pliocene.

Reform and opening up in the area of circulation:a retrospect

China＇s reform and opening up in the area of circulation are an important component of the establishment of a socialist mgrket economy system. Prior to reform and opening up, this area had long been characterized by a high level of centralization, closedness and segmentation. The domestic market was isolated from the overseas market and internal trade from foreign trade, and each had its own management system and policy environment. The thirty years of reform and opening up, however, have put a new face on the institutional environment of circulation： an open and modern system of circulation has been basically established, an embryonic WTO-consistent business administration system is taking shape, and the extension Of business and trade service ixidustries has facilitated institutional innovation. The main experience of reform is the following： first, taking opening up as the leading principle and making use of opening up to promote reform; second, following an incremental path of dealing with the easier issues before the harder ones, building up while you tear down, and gradual improvement; and third, breaking through the traditional framework of commodity circulation and establishing new business systems that accommodate more service industries. The economic implication of China＇s reform experience is as follows： an export-oriented strategy must inevitably be chosen as the point of entry for reform; there is an inherent linkage between market structure and human capital in the circulation of goods and services; and expanding the circulation of non-material goods is an important basis for institutional innovation.

“双循环”格局下中国饲料粮进口稳定性研究

“双循环”格局下适度进口已成为缓解国内饲料粮供需矛盾的现实选择。在有效利用国际饲料粮市场的同时,降低饲料粮进口的稳定性风险,既重要且必要。在对国内饲料粮供需形势精准判断的基础上,综合分析饲料粮进口的可获性与可供性,并采用香农熵指数法对饲料粮的进口来源稳定性进行评估。结果表明:国内饲料粮供需格局趋紧并呈现常态化发展趋势,供需缺口不断扩大,适度进口饲料粮是大势所需。总量上,世界饲料粮的供应潜力巨大;时点上,我国与国际饲料粮生产波动的相关性较弱。因此,利用国际市场弥补国内饲料粮的供需缺口是可行的。1992—2020年,我国饲料粮进口的稳定程度整体处于较低水平,其中,玉米、麦麸和大麦的变动幅度较大,大豆的波动幅度较小。在新一轮高水平开放格局下,亟须完善政策体系、优化进口结构、提高进口稳定性,构建“双循环”新发展格局下开放型的国家饲料粮安全保障体系。

北宋粮食储备与流通对当前我国粮食安全的启示

当前,我国仍存在耕地数量降低、农民务农数量减少和种粮收益不高等问题,需要从国家到个人、思想到行动两个层面上采取措施,才能有效缓解。我国宋代粮食市场突出特点是地区间转运贸易发达,随着北宋粮食贸易的日渐活跃,百姓获得粮食渠道的拓宽,在一定程度上缓解了国家的粮食储备压力,影响了当时的粮食安全标准。北宋农民的赋税负担十分繁重,富民、地主粮食储备较为可观,官方与民间的粮食储备总量存在差距,具备藏粮于富民的特征。宋朝廷利用制度性和市场性的手段,将粮商作为国家的后备粮仓,灵活地缓解了官民粮食储备差距悬殊的矛盾。粮食流通在不同区域呈现出明显的地域性特征,不同的粮食来源和运输距离揭示了政治力量与经济力量在南、北救荒上的不同分配,北方地区的灾荒救济以官方力量为主,南方地区则以民间力量为主,粮食的性质、流通方式存在较大区别,影响着救荒效果。以北宋时期为鉴,当前我国应切实关注民生问题,构建多种形式的土地耕种格局;合理统筹全国区域性粮食流通,完善重大灾情下的粮食供给体系;树立科学粮食储备观,全方位增强社会戒奢从俭意识。

“价补分离”改革对中国玉米生产的影响效应与作用机制

基于2009—2020年玉米主产省市域层面数据,采用DID模型和中介效应模型,探究“价补分离”改革对中国玉米生产的影响效应与作用机制。研究表明:价补分离政策显著减少了玉米播种面积,提高了玉米单位面积产量,并降低了玉米总产量;价补分离政策对玉米生产的影响具有时效性,这一影响随时间推移而减弱;价补分离政策通过增加竞争作物种植比例来减少玉米播种面积,同时促进了粮食作物种植结构优化;价补分离政策通过增加农业机械化水平促进了玉米单产;玉米播种面积的负向效应大于玉米单产的正向效应,价补分离政策通过减少玉米播种面积,最终使玉米总产量降低。

省一流专业引领下“粮油加工副产物综合利用”课程创新创业元素的设计与实践

建设一流专业,深化课程改革,将创新创业教育融入人才培养全过程,持续提升创新创业教育水平,是培养大学生科技人才的重要途径。基于省一流专业建设背景下,本文根据《粮油加工副产物综合利用》课程性质与特点,围绕教学目标,在创新创业教育理念指导下,探索开发与实施粮食工程专业大学生实践案例教学的方法。为改善课程授课形式单一、实践教学环节薄弱、教学评估维度单一等教学现实困境,通过产业案例启发教学、课堂展示、小组创新实验设计开发、科学家精神培育及延伸第二课堂科创竞赛教学等改进举措和多维评估持续机制,以构建基于“课堂-实验-实践”建设思路的“三位一体”创新创业教学协同育人平台,多维度激发学生创新创业能力。以期通过专业课程为载体,搭建平台育人体系,推动专业知识与学生创新创业能力的平衡发展,从而提高粮食工程创新创业人才培养水平。

收储制度市场化改革能提升玉米生产效率吗?——基于玉米主产区247地级市数据实证分析

党的十九大要求,加快推动粮食收储制度改革,保障国家粮食安全。党的二十大进一步指出,全方位夯实粮食安全根基,确保中国人的饭碗牢牢端在自己手里。收储制度市场化改革能否有效激发市场机制作用、提升粮食生产效率,对稳定国内粮食供给、保障国家粮食安全具有重要影响。利用2011-2020年玉米主产区247地级市面板数据,构建DID模型和中介效应模型,基于市场扭曲和市场风险双重视角分析收储制度改革对玉米全要素生产率的影响,并探讨其影响机制。结果表明:(1)收储制度改革对东北三省一区玉米全要素生产率总体呈现正向影响,但是随着改革的深入,全要素生产率增长幅度呈现波动变化;(2)收储制度改革的影响存在较大区域差异性,改革对于内蒙古和黑龙江两地呈现较为明显正向影响,尤其是对该地区第一、第四和第五积温带区域影响最为显著,而对吉林和辽宁两省影响并不明显;(3)收储制度改革通过缓解市场扭曲和加剧市场风险两条路径影响玉米全要素生产率,其中市场扭曲的缓解有助于提升玉米全要素生产率,而市场风险的加剧则减缓了玉米全要素生产率的增长。政府应该关注收储制度改革后玉米生产效率,充分发挥市场机制功能,同时配套抗风险、防波动稳定机制,以确保玉米生产高质量发展,保障国家粮食安全。

宋代粮食流通宏观调控思想及其启示

宋代统治者和有识之士认识到粮食问题关系到社会安定和国计民生,提出了解决粮食问题的一系列宏观调控策略。他们十分注重粮食流通宏观调控的市场导向,倡导利用和发展私营粮商,反对强行限制粮价,力求粮食自由流通,主张严厉打击囤积居奇。宋代粮食流通宏观调控思想对当今社会具有诸多启示:宏观调控方式应当与时俱进,宏观调控应当坚持市场取向、构建统一市场、促进多元经营、强化法律规范。完善粮食流通宏观调控应当减少行政干预,遵循市场经济规律,消除地区市场封锁和保护主义,培育多元化粮食市场主体,健全粮食市场监管和法律法规。

流动的非粮种植与二元土地流转市场——一项土地流转中农业经营模式的双案例分析

造成土地流转市场分化现象的因素不仅包括土地禀赋、流转主体和外在环境,农业经营模式本身也会产生影响。根据不同作物的种植特性,以作物-土地关联机制为切入点,对山东某地区的非粮种植及其参照案例进行比较。研究发现,非粮种植和粮食种植之间不同的作物-土地关联机制影响经营流动性,非粮作物需要流动经营,粮食作物采取固定经营。不同的作物类型和经营模式对土地流转市场产生影响,导致流转对象、合约形式和流转价格发生分化,呈现出二元土地流转市场形态。特别是非粮作物与粮食作物在土壤损害、种植风险、关系强度和交易成本等方面的差异,导致非粮种植的土地流转价格远高于粮食种植。

新工科背景下“粮油贮运学”课程改革与实践

新工科发展建设要求食品专业培养既有专业知识又具有创新意识和能力的综合人才。以“粮油贮运学”课程为例,从优化课程目标和教学内容、改进教学手段、丰富实践教学环节及建立科学合理的课程考核评价体系等方面进行了课程改革和建设。课程改革将理论与实践教学的有机结合,提高了学生参与度和学习主动性,有利于培养学生创新意识和创新能力,提升学生解决实际问题的能力。

粮油快速检测课程实验教学改革研究

粮油快速检测课程实验教学,尤其是课程中的黄曲霉毒素总量快速检测实验项目,在实施过程中一直存在比较多的问题。文章以黄曲霉毒素总量快速检测为例,采用灵活的教学改革措施,课程实验教学工作从实验准备、实验过程和实验评价等多方面入手,从有利于学生的角度出发进行改革,突出了学生的学习主导地位,顺利完成该项实验,达到显著的改革效果。

粮食补贴政策的运行机制与改革逻辑——基于不确定性状态依存方法的解释

从种粮主体视角出发,引入劳动市场收入跨度概念,基于空间向量和不确定性状态依存方法构建了粮食补贴政策运行机制与改革逻辑的理论分析框架。基于该理论框架发现:(1)粮食补贴政策的核心作用之一是为粮食产业吸引较高技能禀赋的种粮者;(2)不同类型粮食补贴都会被当成收入性补贴,其产生的收入效应会起到扩大粮食种植面积和促进粮食科技进步的作用。因此应从政策空间、政策目标和政策弹性3个维度改革完善我国粮食补贴政策:一是进一步聚焦政策目标,提高技能型经营主体种粮意愿;二是充分发挥政策乘数效应,补贴聚焦产业链中后端;三是着力优化政策响应机制,抓住信息技术革命契机。

深圳推广实施UDI促“三医联动”新发展的实践思考

自2019年以来,医疗器械唯一标识(UDI)推广应用工作正在全国范围内分阶段、分步骤实施。深圳市先行先试,严格按照国家和省市相关政策要求落实相关工作,在UDI政策、标准、技术和应用等多个层面进行了探索,以标准先行、行业宣贯、企业培训、平台应用全方位建设医疗器械追溯体系,UDI的推广实施已取得实质性成效。深圳市形成“一个平台支撑,两个端口发力,三个部门联动,四个标准指引”的工作模式,搭建全省首个UDI追溯平台并于2021年10月14日正式上线启用,以UDI编码为关键信息,采集医疗器械的生产、流通和临床使用信息,为落地实施UDI工作提供技术支撑、精准监管和智慧监管。该平台现已通过数据接口等方式采集了来自深圳400余家制造商的8万多种产品(UDI-DIs),深圳30余家甲级三级医院的100余万条临床患者使用信息。目前,深圳市正以UDI追溯平台作为推动UDI实施工作的实际“抓手”,有序扩大UDI实施企业范围,增加医疗机构试点,丰富数据对接方式。本研究总结了深圳市UDI推广实施过程中遇到的挑战以及应对策略和方法,梳理了深圳市推广UDI实施的成效做法,旨在以推广UDI工作为契机,形成推动“三医联动”应用示范效应和可复制的经验总结,为全面实现深圳市医疗器械全生命周期精准追溯和深圳市医疗器械产业高质量发展贡献力量。