Knowledge regarding earthquake hazards and seismicity is crucial for crisis management, and the occurrence of foreshocks, seismic activity patterns, and spatiotemporal variations in seismic activity have been studied....Knowledge regarding earthquake hazards and seismicity is crucial for crisis management, and the occurrence of foreshocks, seismic activity patterns, and spatiotemporal variations in seismic activity have been studied. Furthermore, the estimation of the region-time-length (RTL) parameter has been proposed to detect seismic quiescence before the occurrence of a large earthquake. In addition, the time-to-failure method has been used to estimate the time occurrence of large earthquakes. Hence, in this study, to gain deeper insight into seismic activity in the southern Zagros region, we utilized the RTL algorithm to identify the quiescence and activation phases leading to the Fin doublet earthquakes. Temporal variations in the RTL parameter showed two significant anomalies. One corresponded to the occurrence time of the first earthquake (2017-12-12);the other anomaly was associated with the occurrence time of the second event (2021-11-14). Based on a negative value of the RTL parameter observed in the vicinity of the Fin epicenters (2021), seismic quiescence (a decrease in seismicity compared to the preceding background rate) was identified. The spatial distribution of the RTL prognostic parameters confirms the appearance of seismic quiescence surrounding the epicenter of the Fin doublet earthquakes (2021). The time-to-failure method was designed using precursory events that describe the acceleration of the seismic energy release before the mainshock. Using the time-to-failure method for the earthquake catalog, it was possible to estimate both the magnitude and time of failure of the Fin doublet. Hence, the time-tofailure technique can be a useful supplementary method to the RTL algorithm for determining the characteristics of impending earthquakes.展开更多
On the basis of gap＇s temporal-spatial characteristics in and around source area before an earthquake, we propose a method to estimate characteristic parameters （characteristic distance and time） in the region-time...On the basis of gap＇s temporal-spatial characteristics in and around source area before an earthquake, we propose a method to estimate characteristic parameters （characteristic distance and time） in the region-time-length （RTL） algorithm and introduce the method of correlation coefficient developed by some authors in 2006 to determine the characteristic parameters. The anomalous seismic activities before four moderately strong earthquakes occurred in the northwestern and southwestern China in recent years are studied by the two methods. The results show that the method to estimate characteristic parameters advanced in this paper is a simple one, which possesses a physical meaning and is well applicable to the four moderately strong earthquakes studied.展开更多
The Region-Time-Length Algorithm (RTL algorithm) is introduced and improved in the paper. Compared with the original definition, the influence of rupture length on RTL function is emphasized and the weights of epicent...The Region-Time-Length Algorithm (RTL algorithm) is introduced and improved in the paper. Compared with the original definition, the influence of rupture length on RTL function is emphasized and the weights of epicentral distance function, time function, and rupture length function are ensured to be equal. The retrospective examinations of RTL algorithm in North China have indicated that the anomalies obtained by the improved RTL algorithm show the short or intermediate-short term precursory features in most cases. There are two types of RTL anomalous patterns before the main shock. For the I-type, the variation pattern of the VRTL, numerical values of the VRTL(x, y, z, t) function, is complete and most of them have shown the changing pattern of rising from 0 turning dropping or dropping from 0 turning rising. For the II-type, the variation pattern of VRTL is not complete, which increases or decreases quickly from 0 and there is no evident turning, the main shock generally occurs in the short period around the peak VRTL. The rising of VRTL indicates an increase of seismic activity relative to the background level, which means the enhancement of seismic activity, while the dropping of VRTL indicates the decrease of seismic activity relative to the background level, which represents the seismic quiescence to a certain extent. According to statistical examination results of RTL algorithm in North China, the methods to distinguish the intermediate and short-term anomalies and to estimate the occurrence time of the coming main shock are given in the paper. For both I and II-type RTL anomalies, the R-value, i.e., the forecasting score, is about 0.6 and 0.3 for the 3 months forecasting period and about 0.7 and 0.4 for the 6 months forecasting period. The preliminary discussion is also made for the influences of characteristic time-span t0, characteristic distance r0, and threshold magnitude M0 on computation of VRTL, as well as some other significant problems in application.展开更多
在室内TOA(time of arrival)定位中,严重的多径和非视距现象造成测距误差较大。如何降低测距误差对定位精度的影响是室内精确定位系统的重要挑战。首先介绍了基于RSSI的室内TOA测距误差分级模型(RSSI based indoor TOA ranging errormod...在室内TOA(time of arrival)定位中,严重的多径和非视距现象造成测距误差较大。如何降低测距误差对定位精度的影响是室内精确定位系统的重要挑战。首先介绍了基于RSSI的室内TOA测距误差分级模型(RSSI based indoor TOA ranging errormodel,RITEM),该模型根据测距过程的RSSI值大小,将测距误差划分为4个等级,且各个等级的误差区间和对应的RSSI值区间可以通过现场测试获得。将RITEM应用到定位算法中,提出一种基于误差分级的室内TOA定位算法(ranging error classi-fication based indoor TOA localization algorithm,REC)。算法根据TOA测距过程中的RSSI值和RITEM实时估计测距误差级别和误差范围,利用极大似然法求得定位区域中标签最大概率位置作为定位结果。仿真和实际测试结果显示,在实际室内环境中,REC定位算法具有较高的定位精度,且平均定位误差、定位误差均方差和90%定位误差、最大定位误差等性能明显好于LS、CN-TOAG、Nano算法。展开更多
文摘Knowledge regarding earthquake hazards and seismicity is crucial for crisis management, and the occurrence of foreshocks, seismic activity patterns, and spatiotemporal variations in seismic activity have been studied. Furthermore, the estimation of the region-time-length (RTL) parameter has been proposed to detect seismic quiescence before the occurrence of a large earthquake. In addition, the time-to-failure method has been used to estimate the time occurrence of large earthquakes. Hence, in this study, to gain deeper insight into seismic activity in the southern Zagros region, we utilized the RTL algorithm to identify the quiescence and activation phases leading to the Fin doublet earthquakes. Temporal variations in the RTL parameter showed two significant anomalies. One corresponded to the occurrence time of the first earthquake (2017-12-12);the other anomaly was associated with the occurrence time of the second event (2021-11-14). Based on a negative value of the RTL parameter observed in the vicinity of the Fin epicenters (2021), seismic quiescence (a decrease in seismicity compared to the preceding background rate) was identified. The spatial distribution of the RTL prognostic parameters confirms the appearance of seismic quiescence surrounding the epicenter of the Fin doublet earthquakes (2021). The time-to-failure method was designed using precursory events that describe the acceleration of the seismic energy release before the mainshock. Using the time-to-failure method for the earthquake catalog, it was possible to estimate both the magnitude and time of failure of the Fin doublet. Hence, the time-tofailure technique can be a useful supplementary method to the RTL algorithm for determining the characteristics of impending earthquakes.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China (40574026)Joint Seismological Science Foundation of China (D07024).
文摘On the basis of gap＇s temporal-spatial characteristics in and around source area before an earthquake, we propose a method to estimate characteristic parameters （characteristic distance and time） in the region-time-length （RTL） algorithm and introduce the method of correlation coefficient developed by some authors in 2006 to determine the characteristic parameters. The anomalous seismic activities before four moderately strong earthquakes occurred in the northwestern and southwestern China in recent years are studied by the two methods. The results show that the method to estimate characteristic parameters advanced in this paper is a simple one, which possesses a physical meaning and is well applicable to the four moderately strong earthquakes studied.
文摘The Region-Time-Length Algorithm (RTL algorithm) is introduced and improved in the paper. Compared with the original definition, the influence of rupture length on RTL function is emphasized and the weights of epicentral distance function, time function, and rupture length function are ensured to be equal. The retrospective examinations of RTL algorithm in North China have indicated that the anomalies obtained by the improved RTL algorithm show the short or intermediate-short term precursory features in most cases. There are two types of RTL anomalous patterns before the main shock. For the I-type, the variation pattern of the VRTL, numerical values of the VRTL(x, y, z, t) function, is complete and most of them have shown the changing pattern of rising from 0 turning dropping or dropping from 0 turning rising. For the II-type, the variation pattern of VRTL is not complete, which increases or decreases quickly from 0 and there is no evident turning, the main shock generally occurs in the short period around the peak VRTL. The rising of VRTL indicates an increase of seismic activity relative to the background level, which means the enhancement of seismic activity, while the dropping of VRTL indicates the decrease of seismic activity relative to the background level, which represents the seismic quiescence to a certain extent. According to statistical examination results of RTL algorithm in North China, the methods to distinguish the intermediate and short-term anomalies and to estimate the occurrence time of the coming main shock are given in the paper. For both I and II-type RTL anomalies, the R-value, i.e., the forecasting score, is about 0.6 and 0.3 for the 3 months forecasting period and about 0.7 and 0.4 for the 6 months forecasting period. The preliminary discussion is also made for the influences of characteristic time-span t0, characteristic distance r0, and threshold magnitude M0 on computation of VRTL, as well as some other significant problems in application.
文摘在室内TOA(time of arrival)定位中,严重的多径和非视距现象造成测距误差较大。如何降低测距误差对定位精度的影响是室内精确定位系统的重要挑战。首先介绍了基于RSSI的室内TOA测距误差分级模型(RSSI based indoor TOA ranging errormodel,RITEM),该模型根据测距过程的RSSI值大小,将测距误差划分为4个等级,且各个等级的误差区间和对应的RSSI值区间可以通过现场测试获得。将RITEM应用到定位算法中,提出一种基于误差分级的室内TOA定位算法(ranging error classi-fication based indoor TOA localization algorithm,REC)。算法根据TOA测距过程中的RSSI值和RITEM实时估计测距误差级别和误差范围,利用极大似然法求得定位区域中标签最大概率位置作为定位结果。仿真和实际测试结果显示,在实际室内环境中,REC定位算法具有较高的定位精度,且平均定位误差、定位误差均方差和90%定位误差、最大定位误差等性能明显好于LS、CN-TOAG、Nano算法。
