Spatial and Dynamic Analysis of Regional Sustainable Development Using Geographic Information System and Relative Carrying Capacity of Resources

Relative carrying capacity of resources is an index to measure sustainable development through carrying capacity. Case studies of eleven cities in Zhejiang (Hangzhou, Ningbo, Wenzhou, Jiaxing, Huzhou, Shaoxing, Jinhua, Quzhou, Zhoushan, Taizhou and Lishui) illustrated regional sustainable development approach. In this study, to provide insight into spatial and dynamic analysis of region sustainable development, we calculated the relative carrying capacity of land resources and economical resources and synthetical carrying capacity of resources in different cities in Zhejiang, and geographic information system was carried out. The results showed that all cities but Hangzhou and Ningbo were ecologically sustainable, and relative carrying capacity of land resources in northern and eastern Zhejiang was larger than those in southern and western Zhejiang. The sampling years of Wenzhou, Hangzhou and Ningbo contribution rates of land resource to synthetic carrying capacity were grouped into three stages, and there were two milestones trends and changes in 1996 and 2004, respectively. This study demonstrated that geographic information system and relative carrying capacity of resources are effective for assessment of region sustainable development, and provide policy guidelines for decision-making.

Comprehensive Measurement for Carrying Capacity of Resources and Environment of City Clusters in Central China

Studying the carrying capacity of resources and environment of city clusters in the central China has important practical guidance significance for promoting the healthy, sustainable and stable development of this region. According to their influencing factors and reciprocity mechanism, using system dynamics approaches, this paper built a SD model for measuring the carrying capacity of resources and environment of the city clusters in the central China, and through setting different development models, the comprehensive measurement analysis on the carrying capacity was carried out. The results show that the model of promoting socio-economic development under the protection of resources and environment is the optimal model for promoting the harmony development of resources, environment, society and economy in the city clusters. According to this model, the optimum population scale of the city clusters in 2020 is 42.80×106 persons, and the moderate economic development scale is 22.055×1012 yuan (RMB). In 1996-2020, the carrying capacity of resources and environment in the city clusters took on obvious phase-change characteristics. During the studied period, it is basically at the initial development stage, and will come through the development process from slow development to speedup development.

Geological resources and environmental carrying capacity evaluation review,theory, and practice in China

Evaluations of resources and environmental carrying capacities (GRECC)are the premise of land space planning and use control.Resource allocations and environmental capacity are the basic conditions that restrict development in a region.In this paper,based on a systematic review of China's geological environment,groundwater resources,mineral resources,other geological resources and the environmental carrying capacity research status,the relationship between the natural resource environmental system and the socio-economic system is studied.Then a "coordination theory of resources and environmental carrying"is proposed.Next,on the basis of an evaluation experiment performed at different scales and for different types of regions,the technical methods for an evaluation of the geological resources and environmental carrying capacity at the regional (inter-provincial)and provincial scales in China are established for the first time.This paper presents a standardized method based on technical ideas, evaluation methods,and index systems for geological resource and environmental carrying capacity evaluation.Finally,an evaluation of the groundwater resource carrying capacity in China is used as an example for the demonstration of the groundwater resource background and use of state evaluation methods.

Evaluation on water resources carrying capacity of Changchun-Jilin Region

Based on such principles as sustainable development and ecological cycle, this paper evaluates the water resources carrying capacity(WCC) of Changchun-Jilin region using a population-economy-water resources correlation evaluation model built on the basis of WCC evaluation method as elaborated in the methodology of Functional Zoning of Population Development. Results show that the annual WCC of Changchun-Jilin region is able to support the population there, as a basic balance is struck between population and water resources. The incorporation of WCC into overall urban planning is one of the building blocks for sustainable city development with an advisable size.

Safety Evaluation of Water Environment Carrying Capacity of Five Cities in Ningxia Based on Ecological Footprint of Water Resources

[Objectives]To make safety evaluation of water environment carrying capacity of five cities in Ningxia based on ecological footprint of water resources.[Methods]With the help of the grey relational model,15 indicators were selected from the natural,economic,and social aspects,and the most influential factors in the three fields were selected.Based on the concept of ecological priority,the water resources carrying capacity of the five cities in Ningxia from 2010 to 2019 was calculated with the help of the water resources ecological footprint model.Then,the indicators of the water resources ecological footprint model were coupled with the existing indicators to establish a comprehensive evaluation indicator system.Finally,the changes of the water environment carrying capacity of the five cities in Ningxia were analyzed with the help of the principal component analysis(PCA).[Results]The ecological pressure of water resources and the ecological deficit of water resources in the five cities were relatively large.Specifically,Yinchuan City had the most obvious deficit of water resources but good carrying capacity;Zhongwei City had a large ecological deficit of water resources,poor carrying capacity,and the largest ecological pressure index of water resources;Guyuan City had low water resources ecological deficit,water resources ecological carrying capacity and water resources ecological pressure index.[Conclusions]Through the analysis of the coupling indicator system,it can be seen that the water environment carrying capacity of the five cities is in an upward trend,indicating that the water environment in each region tends to become better.

基于行业水权分配的山东省沿黄区域水资源承载阈值探讨

以山东省黄河流域为研究对象,提出6项指标,采用AHP-TOPSIS法对2025年沿黄9个地级市进行行业水权分配,并结合定额法分析2025年各地级市的水资源承载阈值,对现状承载状态进行分析。结果表明:1)沿黄9个地级市农业、工业、生活、生态行业水权分别为98.28亿、25.15亿、27.52亿、14.77亿m^(3),各行业用水量较现状年(2022年)分别提升10.1%、20.5%、27.5%、13.5%。2)9个地级市人口规模承载阈值为4519.55万~5956.20万人,其中济南承载阈值上限最大;工业增加值阈值为16540.37亿~19353.23亿元,整体提升15%~35%;灌溉耕地面积承载阈值为228.55万~379.54万hm^(2),只有菏泽、东营超出阈值上限;城镇建设用地阈值为38.42万~62.55万hm^(2),现状年滨州超出阈值上限,淄博接近上限,整体有较大承载空间。3)2022年9个地级市中人口规模、灌溉耕地面积承载能力鲁西南地区最弱;工业增加值较现状年均呈现不同幅度的上升,均处于可承载状态;城镇建设用地承载能力鲁西南地区最强,滨州、淄博承载能力较弱。

The Progress of Resources and Environment Carrying Capacity: from Single-factor Carrying Capacity Research to Comprehensive Research

As a concept to describe development restrictions,resources and environment carrying capacity（RECC）research has developed over more than 100 years since it was first proposed at the beginning of the 20th century.It is now regarded as a significant factor in evaluating the level of cooperation between regional population,resources,and environment;and it is currently used as an effective and operational tool to guide regional sustainable development.This article first reviews the origin of RECC and its early headway.It then reviews the historical development of RECC from single factors,such as land resources carrying capacity,water resources carrying capacity and environmental carrying capacity（environmental capacity）,to more comprehensive research,such as comprehensive evaluation,emergy analysis,and ecological footprint analysis.In general,it appears that comprehensive research will become increasingly important in RECC research.However,there are several deficiencies in the current state of comprehensive research.Firstly,comprehensive RECC research lacks a common measurement standard,though some scholars have attempted to create one.Secondly,the RECC evaluation of open systems and dynamic studies should be strengthened.Thirdly,more attention should be paid to standardization,digitalization,and systematization to promote the applicability of RECC research to national practical demands.

Regional Differentiation and Classification for Carrying Constraints on the Resources and Environment of China

Research on the relationship between national resource constraint-region types and environmental carrying capacity is essential for the continued development of Chinese industrialization and urbanization.Thus,utilizing a series of key indexes including the per-capita potential of available land resources,the per-capita potential of available water resources,the degree of environmental stress,and the degree of ecological restriction,a step-by-step,integrated measuring method is presented here to understand the constrained carrying elements of water and land resources as well as environment and ecology.Spatial differences are analyzed and area types classified at the county level across China.Results reveal that：（1）Almost 90%of China is strongly constrained by both resources and the environment,while nearly 50%of national territory is strongly constrained by two elements,especially in areas of intensive population and industry to the east of the Helan-Longmen Mountain line;（2）Densely populated areas of eastern and central China,as well as on the Tibetan Plateau,are strongly constrained by a shortage of land resources,while North China,the northwest,northeast,the Sichuan basin,and some southern cities are experiencing strong constraints because of water shortages.In contrast,the North China plain,the Yangtze River delta,northern Jiangsu,Sichuan province,Chongqing municipality,Guizhou and Guangxi provinces,the northeast plain,and the northern Loess Plateau are constrained by high levels of environmental stress.Areas of China that are strongly ecologically constrained tend to be concentrated to the southwest of the Tianshan-Dabie Mountain line,as well as in the northeast on the Loess Plateau,in the Alashan of Inner Mongolia,in northeast China,and in the northern Jiangsu coastal area;（3）Constraints on national resources and environmental carrying capacity are diverse and cross-cut China,meanwhile,multi-element spatial distribution does reveal a degree of relative centralization.With the exception of the Tibetan Plateau which is resources-ecological constraint,other areas subject to cross constraints are mainly concentrated to the east of the Helan-Longmen Mountain line.

引大入秦工程受水区水资源承载力评价

为探究引大入秦工程受水区水资源承载力状况及受水区水资源、社会经济和生态环境三者之间的协调关系,运用熵权TOPSIS、耦合协调度和障碍度模型,开展受水区水资源承载力评价,分析2017—2021年受水区纵横向维度水资源承载力、子系统间的耦合协调度和影响水资源承载力的关键因素。结果表明:2017—2021年引大入秦工程受水区水资源承载力贴近度呈上升趋势,水资源承载能力总体较好;研究期水资源承载力贴近度均值兰州新区最高,为0.78,对应等级为优秀;受水区耦合协调度由2017年的0.797波动上升至2021年的0.800,说明水资源承载力各子系统之间处于良好协调状态;产水模数、人均水资源量、单位耕地水资源量、降水量、建成区绿化覆盖率和生态用水率是阻碍受水区水资源承载力提升的主要因素。

Assessment of the Water Resources Carrying Capacity in the Great Dunhuang Region

Water resources carrying capacity(WRCC) is an important index for assessing the coordinated development relationship between population and water resources. The quantitative evaluation of WRCC can provide an important basis for water resource regulation and sustainable economic and social development. Based on the statistical data of cities and counties in the Great Dunhuang Region(GDR), and taking counties as the basic units,this study quantitatively analyzed the WRCC and carrying status of the GDR under different water inflow conditions and policy constraints from 2010 to 2017. The study revealed three main trends.(1) From 2010 to 2017, the WRCC of the GDR increased year by year, from 343700, 315900 and 291100 people to 458700, 415400 and 375600people in normal, dry and extremely dry years, respectively.(2) Under policy constraints, the WRCC of the GDR increased year by year from 309400 people in 2010 to 412400 people in 2017. Based on future estimates, the WRCC of the GDR are expected to be 326600 people in 2020 and 341200 people in 2030.(3) From 2010 to 2017,the water resources carrying index of the GDR was decreasing, and it decreased from 1.05, 1.14 and 1.24 to 0.80,0.88 and 0.97 in normal, dry and extremely dry years, respectively. The carrying status changed from critical overload to balanced. Although the WRCC and the carrying status of the GDR had significantly improved by 2017, the overall upper limit of the carrying capacity is not high. Therefore, efforts should be made to improve the utilization efficiency of water resources in order to maintain the sustainable utilization of water resources in the GDR.

Application of an evaluation method of resource and environment carrying capacity in the adjustment of industrial structure in Tibet

With the degradation of natural resources and environment caused by industrial development in some developing countries,the requirement of implementing a“social ecological”approach to development is imminent.Resource and environment carrying capacity provides a means of assessing regional development potential by measuring regional sustainable development in terms of economy,population and resources&environment.This study develops a conceptual framework for resource and environment carrying capacity estimation to support the co-development planning of industries,population and resources&environment.First,the framework constructs an index system for evaluating importance of industry or influence based on the role of industry played in the local socio-economic system.Then,the framework computes the quantitative relations through the importance of local industry,population size and resource utilization and environment effects,and subsequently estimates the resource and environment carrying capacity of the study area.With a particular attention to its land resources,water resources and environment,the Tibet case study shows that:the non-ferrous metal mining,tourism,liquor and refined tea industries play a pillar role in the Tibet’s socio-economic system;under each industrial structure,land resource carrying capacity is the weakest,and water resources carrying capacity is the strongest;to focus on tourism will improve local resource and environment carrying capacity.The research results provide a solid guide for Tibet government’s co-actions in industrial restructuring,ecological protection,and the pursuit of economic development.This study will contribute to bridge the gap between theoretical research and practical applications of resource and environment carrying capacity,and help local governments plan the regional“socio-ecological”sustainable development.

Land development suitability analysis for transport planning evaluation and optimization in mountainous ecological region

Transportation planning is a critical component for creating an orderly,intensive,and sustainable pattern of land development.By comprehensively considering the potential and suitability of transport construction,a comprehensive method combining resources and environmental carrying capacity(RECC)and land development suitability(LDS)was developed by using techniques of GIS,analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and threedimensional magic cube.Taking Aba prefecture in Sichuan Province of Southwest China as a case study,LDS for transportation was analyzed from three aspects,including overall planning layout,different transport modes,and transportation projects.The results showed that the transport planning scales of most counties in Aba were suitable,and the order of LDS of different transport modes was railway>highway=superhighway>tourism track,which already included 42 new transportation projects.We found that two counties(Maoxian County and Jiuzhaigou County)should improve the ecological protection level of transportation,in which the railway network construction should be encouraged,and some transportation projects with low LDS should be postponed or constructed harmlessly.We suggest the combination of RECC and LDS for transportation could enhance the territorial space optimization and sustainable transport construction.

哈尔滨市水资源环境承载能力评价

哈尔滨市是全国主要缺水城市之一.为了合理使用水资源,维持水资源的可持续发展状况,维护社会经济,进行哈尔滨市水资源环境承载能力评价研究显得十分必要.本研究分析了水资源环境承载力主要影响因素,采用隶属度函数确定各单项指标隶属度,结合Delphi法得出评判结果矩阵,并采用数据离散化,提高了此评价方法的表达能力.根据水资源环境承载力评价结果,分析了哈尔滨市水资源环境承载力变化趋势,为以后相关研究提供了依据.

基于陆海统筹的资源环境承载力评价方法探讨

海洋、海岸带蕴含的资源丰富,与人类生存发展息息相关。近年来,随着海洋经济的迅速增长,自然岸线和滨海湿地面积减少、生物多样性降低、典型生态系统受损、近岸海域灾害频发、渔业资源减少等问题日益显现。如何从战略高度提升海洋经济,开发和保护并举,确保海岸带、海洋资源取用合理是新时代的重要课题。陆地和海洋是生态系统不可分割的组成部分,开展陆海统筹的资源环境承载力评价是衡量区域经济发展与生态环境是否协调可持续发展的有效途径。文章系统地梳理了承载力概念的发展历程,对比了常用的海洋资源环境承载力评价方法,初步构建了陆海统筹的资源环境承载力评价指标体系,并提出使用熵值法来确定指标权重,采用状态空间评价模型或TOPSIS模型进行承载力综合评价,可以体现陆地和海洋相互影响、相互制约的关系,并具有较强的可操作性,评价结果可以反映区域资源环境承载力的空间差异或随时间变化情况,能够为海洋和海岸带保护利用提供有效借鉴。

东北地区城镇化与资源环境承载力耦合关系的时空变化

理清城镇化与资源环境承载力耦合关系可为城市可持续发展转型提供决策参考。在分析2003—2019年东北地区城镇化与资源环境承载力时空格局的基础上,采用耦合协调度模型定量剖析了二者耦合关系的时空变化特征。结果显示:2003—2019年,东北地区综合城镇化水平提升了114.29%,总体呈现“东高西低”、辽中南城市群和哈长城市群核心城市引领全域发展的局面;资源环境承载力呈增加趋势,增幅36.09%,空间上聚集于哈大线周边区域;资源环境承载力水平与综合城镇化水平的耦合协调度总体上呈上升趋势,近年增幅有所下降,且辽西北、吉林南部和黑龙江西北部耦合协调度相对较低,核心城市和重要城市耦合协调度普遍较高。亟须提升核心城市对中小城镇的辐射引领能力,并加强生态退化地区的环境保护和高质量发展。

中国旅游环境承载力时空演化与障碍度分析

伴随世界旅游业的迅速发展,旅游与环境的和谐发展逐渐成为热点问题,科学评估旅游环境承载力(TECC)是旅游可持续发展的重要内容。以旅游、经济、生态、社会四个系统界定了TECC的指标体系,并通过泰尔指数、标准差椭圆和障碍度模型等方法分析了中国TECC的时空演化特征与制约因素。结果表明:(1)2011-2021年中国TECC呈上升趋势,四个系统协同演进,但各系统发展水平存在一定差距。(2)2011-2021年中国TECC总体差异有所上升,区域间差异缩小而区域内部总差异在扩大,差异主要来自北部沿海地区和南部沿海地区。(3)2011-2021年中国TECC障碍度总体上经济系统>旅游系统>社会系统>生态系统,高障碍指标主要集中在旅游资源、相关企业、就业人数、医疗水平和城市交通五方面。

黄河“几”字弯都市圈资源环境承载力与经济发展耦合协调研究

在生态文明建设理念下,如何实现生态脆弱区资源环境与经济的协调发展,已成为我国亟待解决的问题之一。以典型生态脆弱区黄河“几”字弯都市圈21个地级市为例,基于2005年、2010年、2015年、2020年的资源环境与经济发展数据,运用熵权TOPSIS法分析资源环境承载力状况,并引入耦合协调度模型揭示资源环境承载力与经济发展水平耦合协调关系及其时空演变特征,结果表明:黄河“几”字弯都市圈资源环境承载力呈波动上升趋势,区域差异显著;资源环境承载力与经济发展水平的耦合协调度整体逐渐趋向于更高程度的耦合;通过莫兰指数分析发现,黄河“几”字弯都市圈资源环境承载力与经济发展水平耦合协调度为显著空间正相关。

长江流域建立水资源刚性约束制度的关键问题与对策研究

南方丰水地区建立水资源刚性约束制度,是为了更好地促进生态环境高水平保护和经济社会高质量发展。基于长江流域水资源开发利用、管理现状及特点,分析了长江流域建立水资源刚性约束制度需重点研究的关键问题,并从水资源和水环境承载能力、用水定额标准、计量监测、水资源规划论证、监管考核和市场机制等方面,提出长江流域建立水资源刚性约束制度的对策建议。

生态文明视域下成都市资源环境承载力研究

基于生态文明视域,系统研究成都市资源环境承载力的现状与变化趋势。通过构建涵盖水资源、土地资源、环境容量等多方面的资源环境承载力评价体系,并采用层次分析法和主成分分析法确定指标权重,对成都市各区县的资源环境承载力进行了量化评估。同时,建立涵盖人口城镇化率、经济城镇化水平、社会城镇化程度等多个维度的城镇化水平评价体系,综合反映成都市各区县的城镇化发展水平。评价结果表明,成都市整体资源环境承载力处于中等偏上水平,各区县之间存在细微差异,且城镇化水平与资源环境承载力之间存在显著正相关关系。

以“四水四定”统筹推进水资源与经济社会及生态环境协调发展的特征及规律认识

我国水资源分布与人口、生产力布局以及土地等资源不相匹配,习近平总书记多次强调坚持“四水四定”(以水定城、以水定地、以水定人、以水定产)。贯彻落实“四水四定”,核心是统筹经济社会发展与生态环境保护需求,科学处理水资源与城市、土地、人口、产业之间的关系,实现人口-经济-社会的发展与资源-环境承载能力相协调。在深入分析当前我国水资源基本形势基础上,探讨了以“四水四定”统筹推进水资源与经济社会及生态环境协调发展的内涵特征和基本规律,从优化时空格局、强化要素调控、实施风险调控、加强质量管控等方面阐述了以“四水四定”统筹协调发展的总体调控思路,提出合理优化城市布局规模、因水制宜发展农业生产、保障公平合理水事服务、促进工业产业适水发展等调控策略,以期为实现水资源可持续利用、促进生态保护和高质量发展提供参考。