A Nonlinear Grey Bernoulli Model with Conformable Fractional-Order Accumulation and Its Application to the Gross Regional Product in the Cheng-Yu Area

This study considers a nonlinear grey Bernoulli forecasting model with conformable fractionalorder accumulation,abbreviated as CFNGBM(1,1,λ),to study the gross regional product in the ChengYu area.The new model contains three nonlinear parameters,the power exponentγ,the conformable fractional-orderαand the background valueλ,which increase the adjustability and flexibility of the CFNGBM(1,1,λ)model.Nonlinear parameters are determined by the moth flame optimization algorithm,which minimizes the mean absolute prediction percentage error.The CFNGBM(1,1,λ)model is applied to the gross regional product of 16 cities in the Cheng-Yu area,which are Chongqing,Chengdu,Mianyang,Leshan,Zigong,Deyang,Meishan,Luzhou,Suining,Neijiang,Nanchong,Guang’an,Yibin,Ya’an,Dazhou and Ziyang.With data from 2013 to 2021,several grey models are established and results show that the new model has higher accuracy in most cases.

Current status of greenhouse gas emissions from aquaculture in China

Aquaculture and mariculture are becoming an increasingly important source of food supply in many countries and regions.However,with the expansion of aquaculture and mariculture comes increasing emissions of greenhouse gases(GHG)which contribute to global warming and climate change.China leads the world in aquaculture and mariculture production,but there are no studies that systematically assess China's overall carbon footprint from these industries.This study quantified GHG emissions from aquaculture and mariculture by four source phases(feed,energy use,nitrous oxide and fertilizers),and then analyzed the carbon footprint of each of these phases for GHG production of nine major species groups over the past ten years to show the spatial distribution of GHG emissions from aquaculture and mariculture in China.Our results showed that the production of feed materials contributed most to the GHG emissions and found that crop energy use,crop land use changes(LUC),fertilizer production,crop nitrous oxide production and rice methane production were the main sources of feed emissions.The total GHG emissions of the nine species groups were 112 Mt(10^(9) kg)CO_(2)e,the nine species accounting for approximately 86%of aquaculture and mariculture production.GHG emissions of cyprinids had the highest contribution at 47%.Spatial analysis based on our study showed Guangdong,Hubei,Jiangsu and Shandong had the highest GHG emissions of all the provinces in this study,and they accounted for approximately 46%of all emissions.The regional Gross Domestic Product(GDP)was significantly positively correlated with GHG emissions in every province,with a correlation coefficient higher than 0.6.Our results showed for the first time the relationship between the relative production by species composition and spatial distribution of GHG emissions from aquaculture and mariculture in China.Our findings provide the scientific basis for reduction of GHG emissions within a broader context of expanding aquaculture in the future.

Evaluation of the efficiency of fixed assets of economic sectors based onindex analysis

This article is devoted to the study of the system of indicators characterizing thevolume, structure and efficiency of the functioning of fixed assets of theproduction and non-production areas of the region based on the index analysis.Through factorial index analysis, models of the relationship between the grossregional product, the cost of fixed assets and capital productivity (capitalintensity) of industries producing goods and providing services were obtained,to identify reserves for increasing of the analyzed indicators. The obtainedresults indicate a trend towards significant decrease in capital productivity inthe production sector, which should become the basis for making managerialdecisions at the regional level to attract investment. They can be used in thepractice of macroeconomic analysis and forecasting, for detailing the factors fordetermining the potential of economic sectors, the efficiency of using fixedassets, and attracting investments.