Urbanization Impact on Regional Climate and Extreme Weather:Current Understanding,Uncertainties,and Future Research Directions

Urban environments lie at the confluence of social,cultural,and economic activities and have unique biophysical characteristics due to continued infrastructure development that generally replaces natural landscapes with built-up structures.The vast majority of studies on urban perturbation of local weather and climate have been centered on the urban heat island(UHI)effect,referring to the higher temperature in cities compared to their natural surroundings.Besides the UHI effect and heat waves,urbanization also impacts atmospheric moisture,wind,boundary layer structure,cloud formation,dispersion of air pollutants,precipitation,and storms.In this review article,we first introduce the datasets and methods used in studying urban areas and their impacts through both observation and modeling and then summarize the scientific insights on the impact of urbanization on various aspects of regional climate and extreme weather based on more than 500 studies.We also highlight the major research gaps and challenges in our understanding of the impacts of urbanization and provide our perspective and recommendations for future research priorities and directions.

Diagnostic Analysis on a Regional Rainstorm Weather in North-central Henan Province

[Objective] The research aimed to analyze a regional rainstorm weather process in north-central Henan Province. [Method] Based on the conventional meteorological observation data and the rainfall data of Henan Meteorological Station, the diagnostic analysis of atmospheric thermodynamics and dynamics on a rainstorm weather process in north-central Henan Province on July 19, 2010 was carried out. The characteristics of physical quantity field and the evolution of weather situation in north-central Henan Province when the rainstorm happened were studied. [Result] Western Pacific subtropical high strengthened to extend westward. The dynamic uplifting of low vortex at the middle and low layers, the strong water vapor transportation of southwest low-level jet caused the regional rainstorm weather process in north-central Henan Province. The diagnostic results of physical quantity showed that the deep, thick wet layer and the sustained water vapor convergence provided the abundant water vapor for rainstorm generation. The positive vorticity advection center developed and spread from northwest to southeast, which was favorable for the development of vertical movement. The structure maintenance of positive vorticity at the middle and low layers, negative vorticity at the middle and high levels provided the power condition for the regional rainstorm generation. The pumping effect of convergence at the middle and low layers, divergence at the high layer was favorable for the strengthening of vertical ascending motion at the low layer. The uplifting effect of dew point front at the middle and low layers triggered the release of unstable energy. The confrontation of warm and cold air was one of the important reasons for the regional rainstorm. TBB characteristic analysis showed that TBB was from -60 to -50 ℃ in north-central Henan Province in the whole strong precipitation time, and the moving speed was equivalent to that of southwest vortex. The low-value belt of TBB corresponded with the rainstorm occurrence zone in Henan, and the minimum-value center of TBB was basically consistent with the strongest center of precipitation. [Conclusion] The research provided the scientific basis for the short-term forecast of rainstorm.

Effects of cementation on physical properties of clastic rock-originated weathering crust reservoirs in the Kexia region,Junggar Basin,NW China

Cements are widely developed in clastic rock-originated weathering crust(CWC)reservoirs in the Kexia region along the northwestern margin of the Junggar Basin and significantly affect reservoir physical properties and oil and gas distribution in this area.Focusing on the CWC reservoirs at the top of both the Permian Jiamuhe Formation and the Triassic Karamay Formation,this study analyzed the types and characteristics of cements in the reservoirs and explored their effects on reservoir physical properties based on thin sections,SEM images,XRD results,and tests of physical properties.The main results are as follows.The cements in the CWC reservoirs in Kexia region mainly consist of carbonate minerals(41.5%),clay minerals(27.8%)and zeolite minerals(30%),as well as small amount of siliceous minerals.Among them,the carbonate minerals are dominated by siderite and calcite,the clay minerals mainly include kaolinite,interstratified illite/smectite(I/S)and chlorite,and the zeolite minerals primarily comprise heulandite and laumontite.These different types of multiphase cements are generally paragenetic or associated and affect reservoir physical properties to different degrees.Specifically,the carbonate and clay cements of the early diagenetic stage reduced the reservoirs’average porosity from 21%to 15%.The dissolution of some carbonate and zeolite cements in the early A substage of the middle diagenetic stage restored the average porosity to 18%,and the cementation in the late A substage decreased the average porosity to 13%again,of which about 4%was reduced by carbonate cements.The average porosity of the CWC reservoirs gradually decreased to the current value of approximately 10%in the B substage of the middle diagenetic stage.The impact of cementation on the CWC reservoirs can reach as far as 70 m below the unconformity.Moreover,the types and contents of cements vary with their depth below the unconformity surface,leading to the development of multiple zones with high cement content and the differentiated oil and gas distribution.

Hydrochemical characteristics of surface water in Hengduan mountain region of Eastern Tibet and its response to human activities:A case study of Duoqu Basin,Jinsha River

The analysis of hydrochemical characteristics and influencing factors of surface river on plateau is helpful to study water hydrological cycle and environmental evolution,which can scientifically guide rational development and utilization of water resources and planning of ecological environment protection.With the expansion and diversification of human activities,the quality of surface rivers will be more directly affected.Therefore,it is of great significance to pay attention to the hydrochemical characteristics of plateau surface rivers and the influence of human activities on their circulation and evolution.In this study,surface water in the Duoqu basin of Jinsha River located in Hengduan mountain region of Eastern Tibet was selected as the representative case.Twenty-three groups of surface water samples were collected to analyze the hydrochemical characteristics and ion sources based on correlation analysis,piper trigram,gibbs model,hydrogen and oxygen isotopic techniques.The results suggest the following:(1)The pH showed slight alkalinity with the value ranged from 7.25 to 8.62.Ca^(2+),Mg^(2+)and HCO_(3)^(–)were the main cations and anions.HCO_(3)^(-)Ca and HCO_(3)^(-)Ca·Mg were the primary hydrochemical types for the surface water of Duoqu River.The correlation analysis showed that TDS had the most significant correlation with Ca^(2+),Mg^(2+)and HCO_(3)^(–).Analysis on hydrogen and oxygen isotopes indicated that the surface rivers were mainly recharged by atmospheric precipitation and glacial melt water in this study area.(2)The surface water had a certain reverse cation alternating adsorption,and surface water ions were mainly derived from rock weathering,mainly controlled by weathering and dissolution of carbonates,and secondly by silicates and sodium rocks.(3)The influence of human activities was weak,while the development of cinnabar minerals had a certain impact on the hydrochemistry characteristics,which was the main factor for causing the increase of SO_(4)^(2–).The densely populated county towns and temples with frequent incense burning activities may cause some anomalies of surface water quality.At present,the Duoqu River watershed had gone through a certain influence of mineral exploitation,so the hydrological cycle and river eco-environment at watershed scale will still bound to be change.The results could provide basic support for better understanding water balance evolution as well as the ecological protection of Duoqu River watershed.

Weathering of Pisha-Sandstones in the Wind-Water Erosion Crisscross Region on the Loess Plateau

Two types of pisha-sandstones of purple sandstones and gray sandstones,widely distributing in the wind-water erosion crisscross region of China,were selected and used in laboratory experiments for a better understanding of the drying-wetting-freezing weathering process resulting from the apportionment of water or salt solution to rock samples.Weathering experiments were carried out under the conditions of environment control(including temperature,moisture and salt solution).All rock samples were frequently subjected to 140 drying-wetting-freezing cycles.The influences of weathering process were evaluated.It was found that the different treatments of moisture and salt solution applications could affect the nature of the weathering products resulting from drying-wetting-freezing.It was also observed that salt solution could effectively alleviate the weathering of pisha-sandstones.Although not all the observations could be explained,it was apparent that simulated environmental factors had both direct and indirect effects on the weathering of rocks.

A research progress review on regional extreme events

An extreme （weather and climate） event does not only mean that an extreme occurs at a location, but more generally it can impact a certainarea and last a certain period of time, which is defined as a regional extreme event （REE） with a certain impacted area and duration. The conceptof REE has been defined to allow mainly objective assessment of the events without a pre-determined boundary and duration. This paper reviewsthe studies on REEs published during the past 20 years, especially recent years. Mainly in view of methodology, these studies can be divided intothree types studies focusing on spatial simultaneity, studies focusing on temporal persistence, and studies identifying REEs. The methodsidentifying REEs include two kinds, e.g., type-I methods stressing REE＇s temporal persistence within a relatively certain area and type-IImethods focusing on catching a complete REE. Identification methods proposed in this paper could provide valuable information for variouspurposes, such as real-time monitoring, estimating long-term changes, mechanism diagnosis, forecasting study and even attribution analysis.Research on REEs is important for objectively defining extreme weather and climate events, which depends on the spatial and temporal scales ofinterest. Such an objective definition will support ongoing climate monitoring and improve the assessment of how regional extreme events havechanged over time.

IMPROVEMENT OF REGIONAL PREDICTION OF SEA FOG ON GUANGDONG COASTLAND USING THE FACTOR OF TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IN THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER

The relationship between the factor of temperature difference of the near-surface layer(T_(1000 hPa)-T_(2m))and sea fog is analyzed using the NCEP reanalysis with a horizontal resolution of l°xl°(2000 to 2011) and the station observations(2010 to 2011).The element is treated as the prediction variable factor in the GRAPES model and used to improve the regional prediction of sea fog on Guangdong coastland.(1) The relationship between this factor and the occurrence of sea fog is explicit:When the sea fog happens,the value of this factor is always large in some specific periods,and the negative value of this factor decreases significantly or turns positive,suggesting the enhancement of warm and moist advection of air flow near the surface,which favors the development of sea fog.(2) The transportation of warm and moist advection over Guangdong coastland is featured by some stages and the jumping among these states.It also gets stronger over time.Meanwhile,the northward propagation of warm and moist advection is quite consistent with the northward advancing of sea fog from south to north along the coastland of China.(3) The GRAPES model can well simulate and realize the factor of near-surface temperature difference.Besides,the accuracy of regional prediction of marine fog,the relevant threat score and Heidke skill score are all improved when the factor is involved.

Weathering-pedogenesis of Carbonate Rocks and Its Environmental Effects in Subtropical Region

We investigated the weathering-pedogenesis of carbonate rocks and its environmental effects in subtropical regions of China. The investigation demonstrated that the weathering- pedogenesis of carbonate rocks is the process of a joint action of corrosion and illuviation and metasomatism in subtropical region. It is characterized by multi-stage, multi-path and multi-style. With the persisting development of weathering-pedogenesis of carbonate rocks, metasomatic pedogenesis progressively became the main process of the weathering-pedogenesis and the dominant style of formation of minerals. And it proceeds through the whole process of evolution of the weathering-pedogenesis of carbonate rocks. The stage evolution of weathering-pedogenesis of carbonate rocks and the fractionation evolution of newly produced minerals are characterized by obvious vertically zoning structures and the rules of gradation of elements geochemical characteristics in the carbonate rocks weathering profiles. The geochemical process of weathering-pedogenesis of carbonate rocks can be divided into three geochemical evolution stages, i.e., the Ca, Mg-depletion and Si, Al-enrichment stage; the Fe, Mn enrichment stage and the Si-depletion and Al-enrichment stage in the subtropical regions. Consistent with the three geochemical evolution stages, the sequence of formation and evolution of minerals can be divided into the clay mineral stage; the Fe, Mn oxide and the gibbsite stage. The influence of weathering-pedogenesis of carbonate rocks on the chemical forms of heavy elements is mainly affected via newly produced components and minerals in the process of weathering-pedogenesis, e.g., iron oxide minerals and organic matters. The important mechanism for the mobilization, transport and pollution of F and As is affected the selective adsorption and desorption of F and As on the surface of iron oxide minerals in the subtropical karst zones, i.e., the selective adsorption and desorption on mineral surfaces of newly produced minerals in the process of weathering-pedogenesis control the geochemical behavior of elements on the Earth＇s surface and environmental quality in subtropical regions.

ON CHEMICAL WEATHERING OF WEATHERING CRUST AT THE GREAT WALL STATION REGION, ANTARCTICA

The chief aim of this study is to investigate the chemical weathering process of the weathering crust in Great Wall Station region of China (in Fildes Peninsula), Antarctica by the method of sedimentology.CW,SW,GW,TW,WE weathering crusts developed on volcanic clastic rock, gray aptitic basalt with tuff or basaltic bedrock. On change of minerals, geochemical behaviors of elements, migration and enrichment regularities of elements, Correlation between element geochemical behaviors, change of weathering potential of rocks in chemical weathering process are studied by us.We can see that the sequence fo weathering strengths of the abovementioned sections, from high to low, should reflected in TW, GW, CW and SWT and basical correspond with that calculated from the enrichment and differentiation indexes.

Relationship between sand-dust weather and water dynamics of desert areas in the middle reaches of Heihe River

Sand-dust weather has become an international social-environmental issue of common concern, and constitutes a serious threat to human lives and economic development. In order to explore the responses of natural desert sand and dust to the dynamics of water in desertification, we extracted long-term monitoring data related to precipitation, soil water, groundwater, and sand-dust weather. These data originated from the test stations for desertification control in desert areas of the middle reaches of the Heihe River. We used an algorithm of characteristic parameters, correlations, and multiple regression analysis to establish a regression model for the duration of sand-dust weather. The response char-acteristics of the natural desert sand and dust and changes of the water inter-annual and annual variance were also examined. Our results showed： （1） From 2006 to 2014 the frequency, duration, and volatility trends of sand-dust weather obviously increased, but the change amplitudes of precipitation, soil water, and groundwater level grew smaller. （2） In the vegetative growth seasons from March to November, the annual variance rates of the soil moisture content in each of four studied layers of soil samples were similar, and the changes in the frequency and duration of sand-dust weather were similar. （3） Our new regression equation for the duration of sand-dust weather passed the R test, F test, and t test. By this regression model we could predict the duration of sand-dust weather with an accuracy of 42.9%. This study can thus provide technological support and reference data for water resource management and re-search regarding sand-dust weather mechanisms.

Weather Yield Model for the Semi Tropical Region (Pakistan)

Weather models are essential tools for checking of the effect of the weather elements in terms of their effect on the production of the crop. This research is an attempt to see the effect of only two variables i.e., temperature and rainfall for the division Faisalabad (semitropical region of Pakistan).The model fitted is of the linear form:the values of a,b, c have been found. The expected yield has been calculated by using the aridity indices (X1 and X2 ) and the result in the form of coefficient of determination R2 has been found equal to 0.166. The significance of the regression coefficient has been tested, which shows that the contribution to the yield from aridity index at germination and that at ripening is significant.The wheat yields are the results of a wide variety of variables, most of which show varying degree of relationship with one another, some positive and some negative in terms of output. These variables may be technology, fertilizers, pesticides, epidemics, kinds of seeds used, market price of crop and the area under cultivation etc, which can be the source of variation in the wheat yield. Since rainfall during germination and temperature at the ripening periods are the necessary factors for the yield of wheat, for this purpose these parameters have been studied in order to their contribution.

Collating Historic Weather Observations for the East Asian Region： Challenges, Solutions, and Reanalyses

1. IntroductionHistoric instrumental weather observations, made on land or at sea from as early as the 17th century （e.g.,Camuffo et al.,2010）,are integral to extending our understanding of the decadal and centennial variations of Earth＇s climate and for comparison with paleo-proxy data.

1980—2016年中国北方风蚀气候侵蚀力的变化

随着修订风蚀方程(RWEQ)的提出,采用增加了冻结因子的气候因子(WF)表达风蚀气候侵蚀力更具有科学性和必要性。基于中国北方风蚀区157个气象站1980—2016年的观测数据,逐月计算了各站点气候因子,并探讨了气候因子时空分布变化特征及影响因素。结果表明:①1980—1997年,年气候因子值表现为快速下降,从940.46 kg/m下降到273.03 kg/m;而1998—2016年,年气候因子值表现相对稳定,在139.81~398.85 kg/m范围内波动。②春季气候因子值约占全年63%,其变化也显著高于其它季节,这也是土壤风蚀发生在春季的主要原因。③气候因子的高值区分布在新疆东部、青海西部、40°N以北的内蒙古中西部,这与气压中心和高大山体地形分布有关。

多源极轨卫星微波温度计资料实时区域同化系统

基于中尺度数值预报模式WRF和WRFDA同化系统,实现多源极轨卫星微波温度计资料实时区域同化,并对同化产品进行评估和应用。2018年同化试验结果表明:通过质量控制和偏差订正,AMSU-A资料第5~9通道亮温观测增量O-B(观测值O和背景场的正演辐射模拟值B的差值)的标准差有效降低,同化后各通道亮温分析残差O-A(观测值O和分析场的正演辐射模拟值A的差值)的标准差有效降低。同化预报产品被应用在暴雨强对流个例和台风个例中,取得良好效果。

近60 a中国极端天气气候事件变化趋势及2023年特征分析

对不同区域极端天气气候事件变化规律的研究,有助于提高我国防灾减灾能力和有效应对气候变化风险。利用我国均一化的2254个气象观测站逐日观测资料,分析评估近60 a和2023年我国及其各区域(未包含港澳台地区)发生的极端高温、极端低温、极端干旱、极端降水和极端台风等极端天气气候事件(简称“极端事件”)的时空特征。结果表明,1961年以来,我国极端事件总体呈下降趋势,其中1970—1990年代初下降趋势明显,1990年代后期以来增加趋势明显;极端高温事件呈显著增加趋势,进入21世纪后增加趋势更加明显;极端低温事件呈减少趋势;极端降水事件总体呈增加趋势;极端干旱事件呈下降趋势且阶段性特征明显;近60 a来受台风影响出现的极端风速和降水事件呈减少趋势,主要由极端台风风速事件减少造成,而极端台风降水事件呈缓慢上升趋势。2023年我国极端事件每站平均发生139次,比气候平均值偏多28.3%。其中,极端高温事件平均发生79次(偏多76.8%),为1961年以来历史最多年;极端低温事件平均发生20次(偏少23.8%);极端降水事件平均发生14次,极端干旱事件平均发生26次,都接近常年平均值;极端台风事件平均发生0.41次(偏多4.2%),主要以极端台风降水事件为主。2023年极端事件主要出现在西南地区、江南西部、华南西部、西北地区中部和北部、内蒙西部、京津冀等地,其中四川东部、贵州南部、甘肃西部、内蒙西部等地超过200次。极端事件增多的主要原因是极端高温事件和极端干旱事件增多。综合等级指数分析表明,极端事件高危险区域主要位于南方地区,特别是东南沿海地区,近60 a综合等级指数增加的区域主要位于西南地区到东北地区南部这个过渡带上。2023年高危险区域主要出现在西南地区和西北地区中北部。

闽粤地区花岗岩风化土体粘粒迁移过程的土柱渗流试验

花岗岩风化土具有大孔隙结构、级配不良的特性。降雨入渗驱动粘粒迁移导致花岗岩风化土内部孔隙扩张和颗粒粗化,是闽粤地区花岗岩分布区水土流失和边坡变形破坏的主因。本文设计土柱渗流模型试验,研究不同级配条件下花岗岩风化土体的粘粒迁移过程与特征,考察土粒含量、渗流量及水力梯度等指标的变化规律。研究表明:(1)含有较多粘土矿物成分的细粒,尤其是粒径小于5μm的具有良好亲水性的粘粒,在渗流作用下容易发生迁移、集聚、淤堵或再迁移过程,导致渗流量与水力梯度持续变化,逐步出现土体颗粒粗化现象;(2)随着砾粒含量的增加,内部土粒单元发育成形的“混粒性”孔隙-骨架结构更为明显;当砾粒含量从40%增加至60%时,粘粒流失量增加14%,渗流量增加了51%,土体渗流通道增多、土体颗粒粗化,土体结构性逐步丧失;(3)花岗岩风化土中粘粒迁移过程由稳定渗流状态向优势渗流状态转变引起,一旦优势流通道成立,水力梯度增幅可达40%。研究结论可为闽粤地区花岗岩分布区水土流失治理和边坡灾害防治提供科学依据。

我国本土气温指数期货产品的研发设计——源于京津冀“首都经济圈”核心功能区的气温数据

我国幅员辽阔,对天气变化非常敏感,迫切需要对天气风险进行有效管理,以消除或减少天气风险对各行业的不利影响。从产品研发设计视角出发,以京津冀“首都经济圈”核心功能区为例,参考国外成熟产品,对我国本土气温指数期货产品进行合约设计和模拟定价,根据行业需求阐述产品的应用价值,提出产品在天气风险管理中的显著作用。研究贡献有,搭建起我国本土气温指数期货产品的研发体系;基于国外成熟市场规则构建出符合我国国情的气温指数期货产品标准化合约框架;运用ARMA模型构建出精确度高的气温预测模型;采用蒙特卡罗模拟法制定出气温指数期货两款产品价格;明确产品的应用推广需求和风险管理作用。

高寒地区水工建筑物环氧砂浆防护材料耐候性能及工程应用

高寒地区水工建筑物长期暴露在高海拔、强紫外辐射、冬季严寒且温差大等特殊环境下,较其他地区更易产生裂缝、渗漏破坏,以及冻融破坏、溶蚀、碳化、钢筋锈蚀、冲刷破坏等劣化问题,严重影响工程安全运行。通过室内紫外湿热老化、冻融循环,以及西藏地区自然老化等试验,研究了环氧砂浆的耐候性能。结果表明,改性环氧砂浆紫外线与湿热加速老化2000 h均未出现开裂,且抗拉强度保留率74%;抗冻等级可达到F250;自然老化960 d后,涂层颜色轻微变色,表面不粉化。该材料用于西藏拉洛水利枢纽工程泄洪洞消力池表面防护与修复,经过4 a以上服役,改性环氧砂浆抗冻、耐紫外线等耐候性能表现优异,有良好应用潜力,可为高寒地区类似工程应用提供参考。

基于数值天气预报因子扩充和改进集成学习的高寒地区短期光伏功率预测

高寒地区光伏系统因气象条件影响,其光伏功率表现出更显著的波动性。本文以黑龙江某光伏电站为例,提出基于数值天气预报(NWP)因子扩充和改进常规Stacking集成学习的高寒地区短期光伏功率预测方法。针对高寒地区光伏功率波动大的特点,引入NWP差分因子作为交叉特征,提升模型对天气变化的敏感性。随后,以极致梯度提升(XGBoost)和长短期记忆(LSTM)网络为基学习器,时间卷积网络(TCN)为元学习器,构建集成学习模型,并利用前向验证优化模型结构。最后,进行对比实验分析,结果表明本文所提方法具有更高的预测准确度和稳定性。

加密地面站观测资料同化对中国区域数值模拟的影响

基于全球数值预报模式,利用格点同化系统(Grid point Statistical Interpolation system,GSI)将中国区域2170个地面自动气象站进行数据同化,建立了中国区域新的模式初始场,对比了中国区域气温、气压和风速3种气象要素的背景场和初始场特征以及同化后预报效果与欧洲中心再分析数据差异。结果表明:尽管仅仅同化了中国区域的观测数据,但同化后的模式平均偏差、均方根偏差和代价函数均显著降低,表明同化地面观测站资料能有效地降低模式背景场中的气温、气压和风速等基本物理量的误差,使模式的初始分析场和实际观测场更为一致;而在中国区域,3种气象要素的预报中气压的预报效果最好,7个区域气压的相关系数均达0.94以上,且同化后7个区域的相关系数均有提升,东北、华东等区域相关系数高达0.99;各区域气温的相关系数在同化后也略有提高,均方根误差在同化后有所降低,其中华南地区降幅最大,降低了2.3%。相对气压和气温而言,经向风和纬向风同化后改进不大,与再分析数据的相关系数偏小,同时均方根误差较大。其中,华东、西南和华中区域的经向风相关系数低于0.5,东北地区的经向风和纬向风的均方根误差均大于5 m s^(-1)。