Influencing Factors and Prediction of Risk of Returning to Ecological Poverty in Liupan Mountain Region,China

China has resolved its overall regional poverty in 2020 by attaining moderate societal prosperity.The country has entered a new development stage designed to achieve its second centenary goal.However,ecological fragility and risk susceptibility have increased the risk of returning to ecological poverty.In this paper,the Liupan Mountain Region of China was used as a case study,and the counties were used as the scale to reveal the spatiotempora differentiation and influcing factors of the risk of returning to poverty in study area.The indicator data for returning to ecological poverty from 2011-2020 were collected and summarized in three dimensions:ecological,economic and social.The autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA)time series and exponential smoothing method(ES)were used to predict the multidimensional indicators of returning to ecological poverty for 61 counties(districts)in the Liupan Mountain Region for 2021-2030.The back propagation neural network(BPNN)and geographic information system(GIS)were used to generate the spatial distribution and time variation for the index of the risk of returning to ecological poverty(RREP index).The results show that 1)ecological factors were the main factors in the risk of returning to ecological poverty in Liupan Mountain Region.2)The RREP index for the 61 counties(districts)exhibited a downward trend from 2021-2030.The RREP index declined more in medium-and high-risk areas than in low-risk areas.From 2021 to 2025,the RREP index exhibited a slight downward trend.From 2026 to2030,the RREP index was expected to decline faster,especially from 2029-2030.3)Based on the RREP index,it can be roughly divided into three types,namely,the high-risk areas,the medium-risk areas,and the low-risk areas.The natural resource conditions in lowrisk areas of returning to ecological poverty,were better than those in medium-and high-risk areas.

DIFASTERS AND REGIONAL RISKS OF DEBRIS FLOW IN ZHAOTONG PREFECTURE，YUNNAN PROVINCE，CHINA

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Risk Regionalization of Drought for Flue-cured Tobacco Planting in Qujing City Based on GIS

The risk regionalization of drought for flue-cured tobacco planting in Qujing City was studied to provide reference for drawing on advantages and avoiding disadvantages in flue-cured tobacco planting,disaster reduction,and disaster relief services.According to the production practice of flue-cured tobacco and local climate analysis,the risk of disaster-causing factors,sensitivity of disaster-breeding environment,vulnerability of carriers,and disaster prevention and reduction capability were analyzed and evaluated quantitatively.Secondly,starting from the formation mechanism of drought,a risk assessment model of the meteorological disaster was established by GIS technology.Finally,the risk assessment and regionalization of drought in the critical periods for drought-stricken flue-cured tobacco (transplanting period,root extending stage and vigorous growth period) in Qujing City were carried out.The results showed that in Qujing City,the risk areas of drought for flue-cured tobacco planting were divided into five grades in the transplanting period and six grades in the root extending stage and vigorous growth period.

Study on the Risk of Regional Energy Security Cooperation

Energy security is an issue that many countries pay more attention to. Cooperation is a good way to solute it. According to the complex system theory, the regional energy cooperation means a state or process of balance system formed by the interaction and behavior coordination between agents. The features of the regional energy cooperation risk include: uncertainty, potential, fuzziness, diversity, relevance and particularity. And the regional energy cooperation risk can be divided into risk inside the system such as main body ability structure of the risk and main body decision-making risk, and the risk outside the system such as external environment factors and cooperation pattern factors.

Frequency and Risk Factors of Complex Regional Pain Syndrome in Cotonou (Benin)

Aim: To determine the frequency and the risk factors of Complex Regional Pain syndrome (CRPS) in Cotonou (Benin). Patients and Méthod: This has been a transversal study carried out over 22 years on files of CRPS infected patients and submitted to rheumatologic consultation in the National Hospital University of Cotonou. Results: 73 out of 17,342 patients examined (0.42%) were suffering from CRPS. Those 73 patients (40 women, 54.8% and 33 men, 45.2%) were in average 54.66 years old and enjoyed an average duration of evolution of 5.79 months. The trauma (41 cases, 56.1%), the stroke (19 cases, 25%), the diabetes (8 cases, 11.3), were the main risk factors that were observed. CRPS was preferably located at the shoulder-hand (34.2%), shoulder (28.8%), wrist-hand (16.4%) and knee (11%). Inflammatory pain was observed in 55 cases. The treatment was dominated by griseofulvina (41 cases, 56.1%), antiinflammatory drugs (38 cases, 52%), analgesic (20 cases, 27, 3%), joint injection by betamethasone (17 cases, 27%). Conclusion: CRPS is not rare in our country. The first risk factor remains the trauma in rheumatologic consultation in Cotonou.

Maternal Mortality Risk Factors in Regional Hospital of Burkina Faso

Individual causes and community determinants are synergic in maternal death occurrence. This study aimed to identify maternal mortality risk factors in a regional hospital. Material and Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study from data of 1807 hospitalized women. To identify maternal mortality risks factors, mortality hazard ratio (HR CI95%) has been calculated in univariate analysis and Cox proportional hazard model. Results: During hospitalization, 30 maternal deaths occurred. From Cox regression, adjusted mortality HR confirmed that women age older than 35 (HR = 2.5, CI95%: [1.2-5.7] and younger than 19 (HR = 3.02, CI95%: [1.5-6.7]);distance to hospital ≥10 Km (HR = 4.1, CI95%: [1.8-9.4];multiple deliveries (HR = 2.4, CI95%: [1.1-7.3]), less ante natal care (<3 visits) (HR = 3.03, CI95%: [0.97-9.48]);obstetrical maternal mortality directs causes (HR = 2.31, CI95%: [1.7-6.21]) and emergently reference (HR = 3.5, CI95%: [1.8-8.32]) were maternal mortality risk factors. Conclusion: In this regional hospital of low income country, identified maternal mortality factors are related to women socio-economic determinants and quality prenatal or obstetric care access. Interventions to reduce maternal mortality rate should be conducted within both household and women socio-economic status development and in maternal health and obstetric care strengthening.

Risk Regionalization of Low-temperature Disasters for Flue-cured Tobacco Planting in Qujing Area Based on GIS

There is a prominent,complex and diverse three-dimensional climate and a variety of meteorological disasters in Qujing area. The risk zoning of low-temperature disasters for flue-cured tobacco planting in Qujing area was studied to provide reference for drawing on advantages and avoiding disadvantages in flue-cured tobacco planting,disaster reduction,and disaster relief services. According to the production practice of fluecured tobacco and local climate analysis,it was determined that flue-cured tobacco in Qujing area was very vulnerable to low temperature during the seedling stage（ from early February to middle April） and in the mature period（ from early July to early September）. Based on the quantitative analysis and evaluation of risk of disaster-causing factors,sensitivity of disaster-breeding environment,vulnerability of carriers,and disaster prevention and reduction capability,a risk assessment model of meteorological disasters was established to precisely evaluate and zone the risk of low-temperature disasters for flue-cured tobacco planting in allusion to the seedling and mature stage in Qujing area by using GIS technology. The risk of lowtemperature disasters for flue-cured tobacco planting during the two periods was divided into four grades,namely low,medium,high and very high risk.

A Fundamental Study on Multi-agent Pedestrian Model Based on Risk Avoidance Behavior during Road Blockage and Evacuation Simulation of Regional Urban Disaster

Regional cities in Japan are at the risk of experiencing big fire accidents or earthquakes every day.However,neither the number nor the capacity of shelters has increased because local governments might not consider them owing to budget shortfall.By contrast,wide-area evacuation simulations can easily provide an antagonizing image of regional urban disasters.After a disaster,the city collapses and the evacuation routes are closed;consequently,evacuees feel anxious and they cannot move as usual.This anxiety behavior has not been considered in previous related studies and simulations.In this study,a wide-area evacuation simulation is developed;this model can not only calculate the possibility of blocking escape routes when the city is broken but also provide safe and more realistic evacuation plans before a disaster occurs by incorporating into the simulation the risk avoidance behaviors of evacuees from road blockage,such as“the route re-seeking behavior”and“the shelter re-selecting behavior”.

Regionalization and the Method for Risk Grading for Flash Flood Disaster in Tibet Region

Flash flood is one of the major meteorological disasters on the Tibet Plateau (TP). Flash flood risk regionalization based on the theory of flash flood occurrence risk is the essential basis for relative risk management. The flash flood risk regionalization and the high-resolution grid mountain flood risk level in TP is carried out by using ArcGIS with the indicators of rainfall, days of heavy rain, vegetation cover, slope, relative elevation difference, river network density, population density, average GDP and traffic density. The areas with high mountain flood risk are mainly located in the middle and downstream of Yarlung, the Nujiang River Valley, the Jinsha River and Lancang River Basin. Besides, the results of flash flood disaster risk regionalization were tested by using historical flash flood disaster data and calamity census data. The disasters occurred in high-risk and sub-high-risk regions are accounted for 73%. Flash floods that cause casualties and economic losses of more than 100,000 CNY (Chinese Yuan) occurred in high-risk areas. Flash flood risk assessment may provide reference for the prevention and control of geological disasters in TP, improve disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities, reduce the hazards of flash floods to social development.

Farmers＇ vulnerability to flood risk： A case study in the Poyang Lake Region

This paper quantitatively explores farmers＇ vulnerability to flood in the Poyang Lake Region （PLR） with the supports of GIS spatial functions. The analysis consists of three major steps, which is based on the spatial unit of township. Firstly, the spatial extent and characteristics of flood risk areas were determined using a digital elevation model （DEM） derived from the 1：50,000 topographic map. Secondly, for each of the township, six indices indicating the economic activities of local farmers were calculated. These indices are： rural population proportion, cultivated land proportion, GDP per unit area, employment proportion of primary industry, net rural income per capita and agricultural income proportion. These six indices were then normalized and used for later vulnerability assessment. Thirdly, the normalized indices （as GIS data layers） were overlaid with the flood risk areas to produce the risk coefficient for each township and to calculate the overall vulnerability for each township. The analysis results show that in the PLR there are high flood risk areas where the farmers＇ livings are seriously influenced or threatened. About 55.56% of the total 180 townships in the flood risk areas have a high degree of flood vulnerability. The townships under flood risk are mainly distributed in the areas around the Poyang Lake and the areas along the ＂five rivers＂.

Sexual Risk Behaviours among People Living with HIV and Implications for Control in the North West Region of Cameroon

In Cameroon, despite extensive control efforts against HIV/AIDS, the number of new HIV infections is still on the rise. The factors contributing to this are not clearly understood. We hypothesized that it may lie on people living with HIV (PLHIV). In a case-control descriptive study, we studied the characteristics and sexual risky behaviour of PLHIV in the North West Region of Cameroon which has the highest HIV prevalence. Participants were screened for HIV and a structured questionnaire was used in data collection. An equivalent number (350) of PLHIV and controls who did not differ with respect to age and sex participated. Relative to the control, PLHIV were generally less educated (P < 0.001), poorer and less privileged (P < 0.001) with no stable source of income. Among participants that were once married, a greater proportion of PLHIV were divorced (OR = 5.23, P = 0.007), and widows (OR = 2.73, P = 0.001). Among participants that were single, a relatively greater proportion of PLHIV practiced multi-partner sex (OR = 4.55, P< 0.001). History of STDs was higher in PLHIV than the control (OR = 1.88, P = 0.001). Out of 350 PLHIV, 280 (80%) admitted to having had sexual intercourse after being diagnosed of which only 127 (41.78%) admitted to using condoms and 132 (47.14%) admitted to concealing their HIV status from their sexual partner(s). These findings have implications in HIV control programs which should target the poor and the less educated, as well as the sexual behaviour of PLHIV, so as to reverse the current rising trend of new infections in the country.

Risk prevention and control strategies for the severely affected areas of snow disaster in the Three Rivers Source Region(TRSR), China

Historically,frequent and heavy snow disaster(SD)has caused serious livestock death and casualties,resulting in a devastating impact on animal husbandry development in the Three Rivers Source Region(TRSR).From winter in 2018 to spring in 2019,the largest SD occurred in this area over the past 10 years,especially in core zones of the Lancang River Source Region.Field research results show that the main causes of the major SD include weak infrastructure(i.e.,roads,communications,warm sheds,and insufficient forage reserve),low rate of domestic animals for sale before the SD,and low loss settlement rate.SD occurrence could furtherly reduce the ability of disaster prevention,mitigation and relief of disaster loss.In the future,heavily affected SD areas should improve the forecasting ability of snowfall incidents,strengthen infrastructure construction,implement grass and livestock balance strategies,optimize livestock structure,improve loss settlement rate,and develop a modern compound model of animal husbandry development model that combines breeding,slaughtering and deep processing of animal product.

Assessment of Waterlogging Risk in Lixiahe Region of Jiangsu Province Based on AVHRR and MODIS Image

Four images of 1991 AVHRR, 2003 and 2007 MODIS were used to extract waterlogging inundated water of three years, and three inundated water maps were overlaid to estimate waterlogging affected frequency. Based on wa-terlogging affected frequency, waterlogging hazard of pixel scale was assessed. According to the weighed score of area percentage of different waterlogging affected frequency in 13 counties/cities of Lixiahe region, waterlogging hazard rank of every county/city was assessed. Waterlogging affected frequency map and 1km×1km grid landuse map were used to assess waterlogging risk of pixel scale; and then waterlogging risk rank of every county/city was assessed by the similar method by which waterlogging hazard rank of every county/city was assessed. High risk region is located mainly in core zone of Lixiahe hinterland, medium risk region is adjacent to high risk region, and low risk region is located in the most outlying area of risk zone and mainly in south to middle part of Lixiahe region. Xinghua and Gaoyou belong to high risk city, Jiangyan belongs to medium risk city, and the other counties/cities have low or lower waterlogging risk. The method of assessing waterlogging risk in this paper is simple and applicable. This paper can provide guidance for the waterlogging risk analysis in broader area of Huaihe River Basin.

EPIDEMIC STRENGTH OF CARDIA AND DISTANT STOMACH CANCER IN THE HIGH RISK REGION OF ESOPHAGEAL CANCER AND THEIR IMPLICATION TO EDOSCOPIC SCREENING

Objective： To discuss the epidemic strength of cardia and distant stomach cancers in the high risk region of esophageal cancer along the south Taihang mountain such as in Shexian, Linxian, and Cixian Counties, and to clarify the tasks for the control of upper gastrointestinal tract cancer as a whole in the region. Methods： Comparisons of incidence and mortality rates of esophageal, cardia and stomach cancers were made between Cixian, Linxian and Shexian Counties with reference to detection rates of cancer in situ and precancerous lesions of the three upper gastrointestinal cancers by endoscopic screening. The screening was performed from 1999 through 2004 in the three adjacent counties including a total of 6233 local residents aged 40 to 69 years old. Results： The incidence rates for cardia cancer for the male and female from 2000 through 2004 were 69.9 and 41.5, and the mortality rates were 54.3 and 33.2 respectively in Shexian County. Esophageal, cardia, and stomach cancers constitute about 70～80 percent of all malignant disease by incidence or mortality rates. Endoscopic survey with iodine staining can effectively detect squamous cell precancerous lesions in the esophagus, but the method is inadequate for the detection of adeno precancerous lesions of the cardia and stomach. Conclusion： The south Taihang mountain region is a high risk area not only for esophagus cancer, but also for cardia and stomach cancers. To control upper gastrointestinal tract cancers as a whole in the region, special attention should be paid to the control of cardia and stomach cancers. Presently, to find effective screening methods for detecting cardia and stomach precancerous lesions is especially important.

Identifying barriers to early diagnosis of breast cancer and perception of women in Malwa region of Punjab,India

Objective:The aim of present study is to identify the breast cancer screening barriers among the women with breast cancer of Malwa region of Punjab,India.The study was conducted at three government hospitals representing almost all districts of Malwa region.Methods:The quantitative research design was followed using empirical research methods.Study was carried out by one-to-one interview by the field investigator and research assistant.Total of 363 breast cancer patient has been interviewed through the scheduled questionnaire and results has been recorded for further analysis.In this study,five barriers are described namely as personal barriers,socio-cultural barriers,economic barriers,health­system barriers,and treatment barriers which contains various questions regarding barriers to breast cancer screening.Univariate analysis methods have been used for the analysis to access the socio-demographic profile of women.Data has been obtained with the help of 5-point liker scale.Binary logistic model was chosen.Results:Majority of participants were in the age groups 50-<60 years(3&6%,140/363)and>60 years(31.1%,112/363).Majority of these women(47.4%,171/363)were illiterate and most of them were housewives.The major barriers to breast cancer screening faced by most of the women were having no knowledge about screening services(90.9%,329/363),the importance of early diagnosis(90.9%,329/363),different screening methods(95.5%,347/363)and place of availing screening services(91.2%,330/363)misguided belief in God and fate(81.5%,295/363)and preferring duties than taking care of health(70.2%,254/363).Education qualification(odds ratio[OR]0.74,β'=-0.309,t=-5.357,P=0.000)and socioeconomic class(OR 1.43,β’=0.354,t=3.399,P=0.001)were found to be significant determinant of the barriers among women.Conclusion:The survey was conducted in the women between the age 40-60 years and as an outcome,the unawareness about screening services,fatalistic attitude,fear of being diagnosed with the cancer,low per capita income was found out significant factors that restricted the women for early check-up for the breast cancer.

Seismic Risk Region Determination by Information Entropy

During the preparation process of a great earthquake, there are certain patterns of less randomness but more order in the space-time distribution of micro-earthquakes, which had been proved by seismic events and experiments. The information entropy concerning the dimension of the order in seismic distribution is systematically defined from the point of modern statistical physics in this paper. Relations of dynamic variations of information entropy with a strong shock occurrence time and the distribution of information with a strong shock occurrence place were approached through seismic data from the Wuqia, Xikar, Wushi, and Manasi regions in Xinjiang. It is indicated that before strong earthquakes, the value of information entropy often noticeably drops in seismic region, and generally much lower in the epicentral area than the surrounding regions. These two characters are of important significance in strong shock risk region determination and large shock tendency prediction.

Determination of Regions With Medium-Term Risk of Strong Earthquakes: Pre-warning Active Faults

To predict the area with frequent seismicity and the future risky region of strong earthquakes on the time scale of one or several years is a very important and urgent problem that needs to be solved.On the basis of active fault research,pre-warning active faults that have been active recently will be discussed; then the medium-term risky region of strong earthquakes will be delimited around the pre-warning active faults.This method proves to be effective.

TYMS gene 5'-and 3'-untranslated region polymorphisms and risk of non-syndromic cleft lip and palate in an Indian population

Dear Editor： Increased homocysteine levels due to vitamin B6 or B12 deficiency or genetic defects in folate pathway genes are associated with an increased incidence of non-syndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate （NSCLP）tlj. Thymidylate synthase （TS） is a folate-dependent enzyme that catalyzes methylation of 2＇-deoxyuridine-5＇-monophosphate （dUMP） to 2＇-deox- ythymidine-5＇-monophosphate （dTMP）, a rate-limiting step in DNA synthesis,

Hazard risk assessment of tropical cyclones based on joint probability theory

The main hazard-causing factors of tropical cyclones are strong wind,heavy rainfall,and storm surge.Evaluation of the hazard-causing degree of a tropical cyclone requires a joint intensity analysis of these hazard-causing factors.According to the maximum hourly mean wind speed,total rainfall,and maximum tide level at various observation stations in Hong Kong during these tropical cyclones,three hazard-causing indices for tropical cyclones are introduced:the strong-wind index(VI),total-rainfall index(RI),and tide-level index(LI).Through a joint probability analysis of VI,RI,and LI for a tropical cyclone affecting Hong Kong,the joint return period is calculated to evaluate its joint hazard-causing intensity.A limit state function of Hong Kong’s resistance to tropical cyclones is developed and used to evaluate the regional risk of tropical cyclones affecting Hong Kong.The results indicate that the joint return period of VI,RI,and LI can reflect the joint hazard-causing intensity of strong wind,heavy rain,and storm surge caused by tropical cyclones;if the overall design return periods of the regional structures decrease,the regional ability to defend against tropical cyclone disasters is degraded.