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Understanding the Relationship Between Shrinking Cities and Land Prices:Spatial Pattern,Effectiveness,and Policy Implications 被引量:1
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作者 WANG Xiaohui PENG Li +1 位作者 HUANG Kexin DENG Wei 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第1期1-18,共18页
Urban shrinkage has emerged as a widespread phenomenon globally and has a significant impact on land,particularly in terms of land use and price.This study focuses on 2851 county-level cities in China in 2005–2018(ex... Urban shrinkage has emerged as a widespread phenomenon globally and has a significant impact on land,particularly in terms of land use and price.This study focuses on 2851 county-level cities in China in 2005–2018(excluding Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan,and‘no data’areas in Qinhai-Tibet Plateau)as the fundamental units of analysis.By employing nighttime light(NTL)data to identify shrinking cities,the propensity score matching(PSM)model was used to quantitatively examine the impact of shrinking cities on land prices,and evaluate the magnitude of this influence.The findings demonstrate the following:1)there were 613 shrinking cities in China,with moderate shrinkage being the most prevalent and severe shrinkage being the least.2)Regional disparities are evident in the spatial distribution of shrinking cities,especially in areas with diverse terrain.3)The spatial pattern of land price exhibits a significant correlated to the economic and administrative levels.4)Shrinking cities significantly negatively impact on the overall land price(ATT=–0.1241,P<0.05).However,the extent of the effect varies significantly among different spatial regions.This study contributes novel insights into the investigation of land prices and shrinking cities,ultimately serving as a foundation for government efforts to promote the sustainable development of urban areas. 展开更多
关键词 shrinking cities land price propensity score matching(PSM) relative effectiveness China
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The Dilemma of “Backward Countryside” and “Congested City” to Be Tackled
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作者 金碚 《China Economist》 2007年第6期1-1,共1页
Statistics shed light on a tremendous imbalance inherent inChina’s urbanization process.Secondary and tertiary industriesmake up the lion’s share of GDP with figures of48.9%and39.4%respectively,while the primary ind... Statistics shed light on a tremendous imbalance inherent inChina’s urbanization process.Secondary and tertiary industriesmake up the lion’s share of GDP with figures of48.9%and39.4%respectively,while the primary industry only accounts for11.7%.By this measure,China can be said to be an industrializedcountry,or at least to have entered the intermediate phase ofindustrialization.In terms of demographic composition, 展开更多
关键词 the Dilemma of Backward countryside Congested city and to Be Tackled
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Investigation of Village Greening in the New Countryside Construction of Xinyu City, Jiangxi Province
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作者 WU Nansheng 《Journal of Landscape Research》 2015年第3期3-7,共5页
On the basis of field investigation in 13 typical villages in Xinyu City, Jiangxi Province, and questionnaire survey over 45 local residents, this paper analyzed rural production and living environment, greening condi... On the basis of field investigation in 13 typical villages in Xinyu City, Jiangxi Province, and questionnaire survey over 45 local residents, this paper analyzed rural production and living environment, greening conditions, and villagers' consciousness about greening in the local area, and proposed 5 major principles for village greening: government plays the leading role, rural households are subjects; adopt unifi ed planning and coordinated development; choose suitable species for suitable land according to actual conditions; put ecology on the top priority, balance economic and ecological development; facilitate operation and management. In addition, the paper highlighted 5 characters in village greening, namely, cultural, ecological, practical, concise, and lifeconcerned. 展开更多
关键词 New countryside construction Village greening Xiyu city of Jiangxi Province
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City Professionals Bring Their Skills to Countryside
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作者 HUANG JIAN & LI ZUOSHI 《The Journal of Human Rights》 2006年第4期22-23,共2页
In October 1995 eight departments of the central government and the Party central committee, including the Ministry of Culture and the CPC Publicity Department, jointly launched a national program to send culture (pr... In October 1995 eight departments of the central government and the Party central committee, including the Ministry of Culture and the CPC Publicity Department, jointly launched a national program to send culture (principally entertainment) to the countryside. In 1996, under the joint sponsorship of ten departments of the central authorities, the national program broadened to include science/technology and medical services. The program, known as "Three Things for the Countryside," has been executed for ten years. How good is their effect? What are peasants' reactions to the program? To find an answer, these reporters have recently visited Tianjin, Hunan and Shandong. 展开更多
关键词 city Professionals Bring their Skills to countryside down
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Research on the Low-carbon-high-value Agriculture Technology in the Comprehensive Improvement of Intra-county Environment Pollution——Taking the Development of Cultivation and Breeding Industry in the Ecological Cyclic Agricultural Garden in Shaoshan Irri 被引量:4
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作者 李林杰 许振成 +5 位作者 罗琳 黄璜 李劲松 赵志彬 陈月华 何清林 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 CAS 2010年第7期64-67,71,共5页
The comprehensive improvement strategy of intra-county environment pollution in the city and countryside was searched.By the research method which combined the microscopic view,the macroscopic view with the dynamic pe... The comprehensive improvement strategy of intra-county environment pollution in the city and countryside was searched.By the research method which combined the microscopic view,the macroscopic view with the dynamic perspective,the seriousness of rural water quality,soil and atmospheric pollution in Xiangxiang,Xiangtan and the surrounding areas in Shaoshan irrigated area was revealed.The control measure which was 'four-dimensional pollution in the city and countryside'—— low-carbon-high-value agriculture and the technology innovation was proposed.The low-carbon-high-value technology innovation industrialization demonstration in three parts which included the pre-production,mid-production and post-production deep-processing of cultivation and breeding industry in the ecological cyclic agricultural garden in Shaoshan irrigated area was the driving force.We tried to propel the low-carbon ecological cultivation and breeding industry which included the paddy rice,grass,tree,medicinal herbs and pig,cow,chick,duck,fish.We wanted to relieve the structural unbalance of previous cultivation and breeding industry,'cheap grain hurting the farmers' and the short-leg problem of social-economic-ecological benefit.The results showed that the low-carbon-high-value agricultural system was a poly-generation technology system which promoted the multi-level and grading utilization,saved the energy,reduced the consumption and cleaned the production based on the ecology. 展开更多
关键词 Comprehensive control of intra-county environment pollution Four-dimensional pollution in the city and countryside Low-carbon-high-value agriculture Ecological cyclic agriculture Environmental safety-urban and rural cyclic coupling mode Low-carbon-high-value technology innovation industrialization demonstration Processing-tree-medicinal herbs-grass-paddy rice-duck-cow-chick-pig-fish-marsh gas-tourism eco-project China
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Analysis on the Climate Characteristics of Relative Humidity in Recent 40 Years in Urumqi City 被引量:2
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作者 李瑞 柳芳 +1 位作者 冉桂平 杨霞 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 CAS 2010年第8期21-23,26,共4页
By using the daily average relative humidity data in Urumqi during 1961-2000,the basic climate characteristics and the variation trend of relative humidity in Urumqi in recent 40 years were analyzed.The results showed... By using the daily average relative humidity data in Urumqi during 1961-2000,the basic climate characteristics and the variation trend of relative humidity in Urumqi in recent 40 years were analyzed.The results showed that the yearly average relative humidity in Urumqi was 57.5%.The relative humidity in winter was 77.5% which was the biggest all the year round,and the relative humidity in summer was 41.2% which was the smallest.The relative humidity in spring,summer,autumn,winter and the yearly relative humidity all displayed the increase trend.The yearly mean relative humidity had the periods of mainly 2,3-4 and quasi-7 years.The periodic oscillation of quasi-7 years was the strongest. 展开更多
关键词 Relative humidity Climate variation Wavelet analysis Urumqi city China
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Thinking on Beautiful Countryside Construction Based on Land Consolidation in Hefei City
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作者 Wei WANG Zhongxiang YU 《Asian Agricultural Research》 2013年第10期133-137,共5页
This paper stated the background under which beautiful countryside construction was proposed;reviewed the new countryside construction profile of Hefei City before beautiful countryside construction was proposed;analy... This paper stated the background under which beautiful countryside construction was proposed;reviewed the new countryside construction profile of Hefei City before beautiful countryside construction was proposed;analyzed the practices of beautiful countryside construction of Hefei City from the perspective of the land consolidation when considering the development of new-type urbanization conjunctively;then,on the basis of the analysis,it proposed a consideration that the land consolidation and beautiful countryside construction practices of Hefei City should be used for reference,that is to say,the city should focus on beautiful countryside construction planning and comprehensively promote the land consolidation.And it also indicated that there were three kinds of relations needed to be treated well and"five combinations"needed to be done well in land consolidation. 展开更多
关键词 Hefei city Land CONSOLIDATION BEAUTIFUL countrysid
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Exploring relations between city regions based on mobile phone data
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作者 汪烁枫 李志恒 +1 位作者 姜山 谢娜 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2016年第7期1799-1806,共8页
City regions often have great diversity in form and function. To better understand the role of each region, the relations between city regions need to be carefully studied. In this work, the human mobility relations b... City regions often have great diversity in form and function. To better understand the role of each region, the relations between city regions need to be carefully studied. In this work, the human mobility relations between regions of Shanghai based on mobile phone data is explored. By formulating the regions as nodes in a network and the commuting between each pair of regions as link weights, the distribution of nodes degree, and spatial structures of communities in this relation network are studied. Statistics show that regions locate in urban centers and traffic hubs have significantly larger degrees. Moreover, two kinds of spatial structures of communities are found. In most communities, nodes are spatially neighboring. However, in the communities that cover traffic hubs, nodes often locate along corridors. 展开更多
关键词 mobile phone data city relations community DEGREE
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A Modified Approach to Analyze Thermal Comfort Classification 被引量:3
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作者 Manju Mohan Anuj Gupta Shweta Bhati 《Atmospheric and Climate Sciences》 2014年第1期7-19,共13页
A thermal stress index of a geographic location over a period of time can provide knowledge of overall climate perceptible to the general public. Out of the three approaches to assessing thermal comfort namely, ration... A thermal stress index of a geographic location over a period of time can provide knowledge of overall climate perceptible to the general public. Out of the three approaches to assessing thermal comfort namely, rational, empirical and direct, the direct approach is being used in the present study because of easy availability of all inputs and reasonable comprehension of the assessments. Assessment and ranking of cities using this approach based on the percentage of comfortable hours alone may however be erroneous and misleading as this approach does not consider the percentages of uncomfortable classes which could often be substantially high. The modified approach for thermal comfort classification demonstrates cumulative representation of all classes of thermal comfort including uncomfortablity and provides relative ranking of cities. Analysis of the results is presented here for five megacities (Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata and Hyderabad) representing varying geographical and climatic locations of India. These cities are ranked based on the routine and modified approaches and results are discussed in detail on monthly, seasonal and annual average basis. When the cities are compared only on the basis of comfortable hours, the decreasing order of comfortability is Hyderabad, Kolkata, Delhi, Chennai and Mumbai. However, considering the second methodology, it is revealed that the contribution of uncomfortable hours is greater in Kolkata and Chennai in comparison to Mumbai. The proposed methodology could be an improvement over the current practices and provides a more rational method for relative ranking of cities that could be used for tourism and energy demands. 展开更多
关键词 COMFORT INDEX Heat INDEX Wind CHILL Effective Comfortability RELATIVE RANKING of CITIES thermal Stress
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Urban Social Mobility Plight of City Wives from Countryside
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作者 Shen Wenjie 《学术界》 CSSCI 北大核心 2015年第9期280-285,共6页
Through field investigation,this paper discusses the social mobility of city wives from countryside and analyses the causes of the upward social mobility plight of this group in urban society.The author believes that ... Through field investigation,this paper discusses the social mobility of city wives from countryside and analyses the causes of the upward social mobility plight of this group in urban society.The author believes that city wives from countryside cannot continue to move upward in urban society because of their lack of culture capital and social capital.To break such plight of upward mobility for the group demands the system renovation. 展开更多
关键词 城市社会 农村妇女 流动 社会资本 社会发展 群体
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资源下乡背景下乡村关系的差序格局及其形塑逻辑 被引量:2
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作者 姜国俊 《中南大学学报(社会科学版)》 CSSCI 北大核心 2024年第1期136-146,共11页
以“一乡−多村”为乡村关系的两个主体,突破过去将乡村关系中的“村”视为一个抽象整体的研究进路,提出“乡村关系的差序格局”。在“行政消解自治”乡村一体化的背景下,乡镇与其下辖的各行政村的关系存在“亲疏远近”之别。形塑这种亲... 以“一乡−多村”为乡村关系的两个主体,突破过去将乡村关系中的“村”视为一个抽象整体的研究进路,提出“乡村关系的差序格局”。在“行政消解自治”乡村一体化的背景下,乡镇与其下辖的各行政村的关系存在“亲疏远近”之别。形塑这种亲疏远近的要素主要有三个:一是特定行政村在中央或地方涉农政策中的重要性。政策性位置越突出,其与乡镇的关系越亲近。二是特定行政村村治情况良善与否。村干部治村能力越强,其与乡镇的关系越亲近。三是特定行政村在体制内有无先赋性外联关系。这种外联关系越重要,其与乡镇的关系越亲近。自上而下的各类资源在各行政村之间的配置,相应由乡村关系的差序格局来形塑。 展开更多
关键词 资源下乡 乡村关系 差序格局 驻村工作队 政绩思维
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山地城市高温热浪灾害空间识别与风险评估——以重庆市为例 被引量:1
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作者 黄海静 马金辉 杨雨飞 《风景园林》 北大核心 2024年第8期95-103,共9页
【目的】以重庆市为代表的山地城市高温热浪问题突出,对高温热浪风险进行准确识别与科学评估是增强城市韧性和气候适应性的重要途径。【方法】采集社会经济、地理信息和人口数据,识别高温热浪风险要素,构建以“危险性—山地城市暴露度... 【目的】以重庆市为代表的山地城市高温热浪问题突出,对高温热浪风险进行准确识别与科学评估是增强城市韧性和气候适应性的重要途径。【方法】采集社会经济、地理信息和人口数据,识别高温热浪风险要素,构建以“危险性—山地城市暴露度—脆弱性”为框架的山地城市高温热浪风险评估体系,并选择重庆市2018年7—9月典型高温热浪事件展开评估。【结果】极高和高风险区县都分布在中心城区以内,其高温热浪平均风险水平超出中等级风险区的2倍,由危险性和暴露度共同主导,越靠近中心,综合风险越高;危险性与暴露度都呈“近高远低”的空间分布特征,脆弱性空间分布特征则为“近低远高”;危险性较小的区县往往收入、医疗、教育水平有限,脆弱性明显高于中心城区;根据高温热浪风险主导因子的不同,以“局地优化、区域互补”为思路,提出山地城市热灾害风险应对策略与规划建议。【结论】完善了风景园林应对气候变化的策略体系,推动构建健康、安全、舒适的城市人居环境,为落实山地城市气候韧性发展规划提供理论支持与指导。 展开更多
关键词 风景园林 气候变化 高温热浪 热灾害空间分布 风险评估 规划应对策略 重庆市
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对立与消解:《大地》中的景观书写
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作者 王会刚 《江苏大学学报(社会科学版)》 CSSCI 2024年第2期81-88,112,共9页
文学作品中的景观往往被视为一种主观体验的表达。为赛珍珠赢得诺贝尔文学奖的《大地》包含了大量的乡村与城市景观书写。赛珍珠从中国农民的体验视角,书写了以土地、村落为代表的乡土景观以及以高墙为代表的城市景观。她认为,乡土景观... 文学作品中的景观往往被视为一种主观体验的表达。为赛珍珠赢得诺贝尔文学奖的《大地》包含了大量的乡村与城市景观书写。赛珍珠从中国农民的体验视角,书写了以土地、村落为代表的乡土景观以及以高墙为代表的城市景观。她认为,乡土景观是中国农民精神意蕴的中心,由各种政治性景观组合而成的城市景观则是腐朽与异化的代表,造成了农民精神和身份的失衡。因此,农民只有复归乡土景观之上,才能获得肉体与精神的救赎。 展开更多
关键词 《大地》 赛珍珠 景观 乡村 城市 精神救赎
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中国城市经济韧性和人口收缩——基于相关多样性和城际联系的解释
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作者 孙铁山 《同济大学学报(社会科学版)》 CSSCI 北大核心 2024年第3期63-74,共12页
城市经济韧性和人口收缩是城市应对结构性危机中两种相关联的特征。文章以2010—2020年中国地级及以上城市为对象,分析当前中国城市的经济韧性和人口收缩特征,并从城市自身技术相关多样性和外部城际联系两方面进行解释。研究发现,城市... 城市经济韧性和人口收缩是城市应对结构性危机中两种相关联的特征。文章以2010—2020年中国地级及以上城市为对象,分析当前中国城市的经济韧性和人口收缩特征,并从城市自身技术相关多样性和外部城际联系两方面进行解释。研究发现,城市经济韧性和人口增长正相关,但也存在经济韧性和人口增长相背离的城市,中国城市据此可以分为人口扩张—韧性强、人口扩张—韧性弱、人口收缩—韧性强、人口收缩—韧性弱四种类型。实证结果表明:相关多样性和城际联系都影响城市经济韧性和人口变动,对于人口收缩型城市来说,经济韧性提升的关键是城市自身的技术相关多样性和城市网络联系,而“中心—腹地”联系的极化效应会导致腹地和边缘城市的人口收缩,但城市自身的技术相关多样性和城市网络联系则可能帮助抑制人口收缩。 展开更多
关键词 经济韧性 人口收缩 相关多样性 城际联系 城市网络外部性
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全过程视域下的撤县(市)设区府际博弈与调适——基于Z市S区行政区划调整30年的纵向追踪
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作者 赵聚军 章烁晨 《上海行政学院学报》 CSSCI 北大核心 2024年第1期4-18,共15页
撤县(市)设区不是一蹴而就的,伴随其间的府际博弈,深刻影响着调整的进程与成效。虽然已有研究比较丰富,但主要集中于事前的动因分析或事后的绩效评估,尚未有研究系统归纳贯穿撤县(市)设区不同阶段的府际博弈逻辑及其深刻影响。基于已有... 撤县(市)设区不是一蹴而就的,伴随其间的府际博弈,深刻影响着调整的进程与成效。虽然已有研究比较丰富,但主要集中于事前的动因分析或事后的绩效评估,尚未有研究系统归纳贯穿撤县(市)设区不同阶段的府际博弈逻辑及其深刻影响。基于已有研究和经验事实,以历史追踪而非点状的视角观察撤县(市)设区进程,从组织逻辑下居于主导地位的上级权威、激励逻辑下事实存在的下级弱自主性、目标逻辑下必须兼顾的稳定与发展三个层面,构建了一个理解撤县(市)设区府际博弈与调适的分析框架。在此基础上,通过对Z市S区30年相关行政区划调整过程的纵向追踪,发现各级政府遵循不同的博弈逻辑进行策略选择,进而形成了不同程度上的服从、合作甚至对抗模式,深刻影响着区域融合发展进程,也间接表明撤县(市)设区并不能直接推动新设区与主城区的融合发展。上述工作不仅初步打开了贯穿撤县(市)设区全过程的府际博弈“黑箱”,也拓展了基于过程视角的府际关系研究的适用场景与解释限度。 展开更多
关键词 行政区划调整 撤县(市)设区 纵向府际关系 区域融合发展
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百年来伦敦大都市政府职责体系的演化
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作者 吴晓林 贾志艺 《国家现代化建设研究》 2024年第1期146-160,共15页
19世纪末至今,伦敦大都市政府职责体系经历了多轮调整。回顾百余年来大伦敦市的改革历程可以发现,其职责体系演化总体上呈现出“权责趋于上收、两级松散分工”的特点,都市政府职能集中于战略层面,地方政府承担具体事务治理职能。在此发... 19世纪末至今,伦敦大都市政府职责体系经历了多轮调整。回顾百余年来大伦敦市的改革历程可以发现,其职责体系演化总体上呈现出“权责趋于上收、两级松散分工”的特点,都市政府职能集中于战略层面,地方政府承担具体事务治理职能。在此发展过程中,有多重因素对伦敦大都市政府职责体系的演化产生影响,但不同时期的主要影响因素并不相同。分析和总结伦敦大都市政府职责体系调整的特征及其影响因素,对于探索大都市政府治理机制发展规律具有特定借鉴意义。 展开更多
关键词 城市政府 职责体系 大伦敦市政府 央地关系
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长三角合作共建园区转型路径与机制——基于“同质多形”视角 被引量:2
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作者 杨凌凡 罗小龙 +2 位作者 唐蜜 丁子尧 顾宗倪 《地理科学》 CSSCI CSCD 北大核心 2024年第3期379-390,共12页
合作共建园区的转型发展作为重要区域治理现象在学术界备受关注。本文采用半结构化访谈法和文本分析法,援引“同质多形”理论视角并构建研究框架,尝试从尺度、网络、领域等多个维度揭示长三角合作共建园区转型的内在动力及其新发展趋势... 合作共建园区的转型发展作为重要区域治理现象在学术界备受关注。本文采用半结构化访谈法和文本分析法,援引“同质多形”理论视角并构建研究框架,尝试从尺度、网络、领域等多个维度揭示长三角合作共建园区转型的内在动力及其新发展趋势。研究发现:①长三角合作共建园区多维特征处于动态演化中,资本需求与行政治理困境共同构成最为关键的演化动力。园区经历了以企业转移为目标的早期形成阶段、2010年后的波折发展阶段以及2016年后以多元伙伴议程为导向的创新转型阶段,园区的转型发展由不同时期经济发展需求与行政治理困境共同推动。②长三角合作共建园区治理方式从政府间协同转向多元主体网络行动,使园区的尺度、网络、领域特征从早期迁出地主导的单中心治理方式向多元化发展。③长三角合作共建园区的建设从突出专业化经济优势转向囊括创新、生产、居住等要素的综合性整体系统转变,是当前区域治理日趋复杂的缩影,国家到地方、政府到市场的不同行动主体都参与其中。总之,本文揭示了合作共建园区治理的新趋势,并强调同质多形框架在认识与推动当前合作共建园区新发展中的理论与实践价值。 展开更多
关键词 合作共建园区 “同质多形”理论 尺度 网络 领域 长三角
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Relations Between the Industrial Output and the Size of Cities in China
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作者 Zhou Yixing Wang Hong 《China City Planning Review》 1989年第2期3-11,共9页
Currently, there are controversies onthe development policy for large, mediumand small sized cities. To appraise the ad-vantages and disadvantages of cities of vari-ous sizes from different angles, conclusionscan vary... Currently, there are controversies onthe development policy for large, mediumand small sized cities. To appraise the ad-vantages and disadvantages of cities of vari-ous sizes from different angles, conclusionscan vary tremendously. Starting from devel-opment productivity, cities in China shouldaim at achieving good output returns. This article tries to discuss the outputreturns of cities of different size from 展开更多
关键词 In high relations between the Industrial Output and the Size of Cities in China
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田园城市?花园城市?--对霍华德Garden City的再认识 被引量:16
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作者 黄明华 惠倩 《城市规划》 CSSCI CSCD 北大核心 2018年第10期9-17,共9页
霍华德的著作《GardenCitiesofTomorrow》自被翻译为中文并引入中国后,关于GardenCity究竟应译为田园城市还是花园城市这一关乎理论核心思想的问题始终众口难调。本文试图通过对霍华德原著的深入研读,从Garden City理论背景的研究、规... 霍华德的著作《GardenCitiesofTomorrow》自被翻译为中文并引入中国后,关于GardenCity究竟应译为田园城市还是花园城市这一关乎理论核心思想的问题始终众口难调。本文试图通过对霍华德原著的深入研读,从Garden City理论背景的研究、规划方案的剖析、理论本质的解读、霍华德城乡观的挖掘、著作命名逻辑的分析五个方面进行探究,并在此基础上得出结论:一方面,霍华德提出GardenCity理论的初衷是为解决当时日益严重的城市问题提供一种社会改革的"正确的思想体系",他在构建的理想城市GardenCity上寄托了对美好城市新生活的向往,garden代表了英国居住生活的传统;另一方面,"田园城市"这一译名,为GardenCity理论带来新的更深的误解。因此,唯有还原Garden City思想的本质,才能回归霍华德的本意。 展开更多
关键词 花园城市 田园城市 霍华德 城乡观 规划实践
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榆林市沙漠化演变及其驱动力分析
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作者 刘亚辰 王苗 +1 位作者 陶泽兴 呼雪梅 《中国水土保持科学》 CSCD 北大核心 2024年第2期9-16,共8页
识别土地沙漠化的影响因素,对制定沙漠化防治对策、促进人与自然和谐发展具有重要意义。基于2000—2014年榆林市沙漠化监测数据和气象数据,采用灰色关联度分析、偏相关分析、主成分分析等方法,研究6种气候因素和8种人为因素对不同沙漠... 识别土地沙漠化的影响因素,对制定沙漠化防治对策、促进人与自然和谐发展具有重要意义。基于2000—2014年榆林市沙漠化监测数据和气象数据,采用灰色关联度分析、偏相关分析、主成分分析等方法,研究6种气候因素和8种人为因素对不同沙漠化等级土地面积变化的影响,识别主要驱动因子,并构建沙漠化面积预测模型。结果表明:1)除潜在沙漠化土地面积有所增加外,其余各类型沙漠化土地面积均显著减少;2)前5主成分中,人为因素的累积贡献率为52.98%,气候因素累积贡献率为38.17%,表明沙漠化主要受人类活动影响;3)构建的三次回归模型可较好模拟不同类型沙漠化面积变化,模型解释量达40%~66%。本成果可为评估未来气候变化对沙漠化的影响和制定沙漠化防治对策提供参考。 展开更多
关键词 沙漠化 气候变化 人类活动 灰色关联度 主成分分析 榆林市
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