A Rainfall Intensity-Duration Threshold for Mass Movement in Badulla, Sri Lanka

Mass movement in Sri Lanka is mainly triggered by heavy rainfall. International literature is rich of works defining rainfall intensity-duration models to identify the rainfall threshold for various types of Mass movement. However, studies have not focused to establish a relationship between intensity and duration of rainfall in Sri Lanka. Therefore, this study focused to establish rainfall intensity-duration models to identify the rainfall threshold for mass movements in Badulla district in Sri Lanka, where forty four (44) rainfall events that resulted in same number of landslides during the last three decades were considered. Results indicate the rainfall threshold relationship fits to the log linear model of the exponential function, I = α&#183D-β. The constructed I-D curve revealed that short duration (54 mm/h) in rainfall events can potentially trigger the landslide. However, long-duration (>8 h) and low-intensity (<25 mm/h) in rainfall events may also trigger mass movements in Badulla. As per the results, most mass movements occur during northeast monsoons and inter-monsoons. In general, higher mean rainfall intensities trigger the debris flows, while long-duration rainfall events can trigger both landslides and debris flow. When compared to Sri Lankan mass movements triggering threshold intensities are fairly higher than the global threshold values. It confirms that within Badulla, mass movements are triggered by very high intense and/or long duration rainfalls events only. Further, time series analysis of the rainfall events shows an upward trend of extreme rainfall events, which increased landslide occurring frequency in last six (6) years.

Studies on the Relationship between Occurrence Degree of Cotton Bollworm and Rainfall

[ Objective ] The aim of the study is to investigate the factors causing the outbreak of cotton bollworm and to provide effective measures for controlling cotton bollworm. [ Method] Based on the analysis of the data about insect and weather situation in Luyi County in 32 years, the meteorological, prediction model was established for monitoring the quarterly or monthly occurrence trend of cotton bollworm. [Result] The cotton boillworm occurred slightly in the years with rainfalls of 3 months over 500 nm and severely in the years with rainfalls of 3 months： less than 400 rim. The results of correlation analysis show that annual occurrence degrees of cotton bollworm and occurrence degrees of 4^th generation of cotton bollworm are extremely negatively correlated with rainfall during June - August; the occurrence degrees of 3^rd and 4^th generations of cotton bollworm are also extremely negatively correlated with rainfall in July. [ Conclusion] The occurrence of cotton bollworm in field is heavily influenced by rainfall in at its occurrence stage; moreover, the rainfall during June - August is the decisive factors influencing the occurrence of cotton bollworm.

Relationships between Rainy Days,Mean Daily Intensity and Seasonal Rainfall in Normal,Flood and Drought Years over India

here are limitations in using the seasonal rainfall total in studies of Monsoon rainfall climatology. A correlation analysis of the individual station seasonal rainfall with all India seasonal mean rainfall has been made. After taking the significance test (strictly up to 5% level) the stations which are significantly correlated have been considered in this study in normal, flood and drought years respectively. Analysis of seasonal rainfall data of 50 stations spread over a period of 41 years suggests that a linear relationship fits better than the logarithmic relationship when seasonal rainfall versus number of rainy days is studied. The linear relationship is also found to be better in the case of seasonal rainfall versus mean daily intensity.

Perspectives on the non-stationarity of the relationship between Indian and East Asian summer rainfall variations

The relationship between Indian and East Asian summer rainfall variations is non-stationary in observations as well as in historical simulations of climate models.Is this non-stationarity due to changes in effects of external forcing or internal atmospheric processes？ Whilst ENSO is an important oceanic forcing of Indian and East Asian summer rainfall variations,its impacts cannot explain the observed long-term changes in the Indian-East Asian summer rainfall relationship.Monte Carlo test indicates that the role of random processes cannot be totally excluded in the observed longterm changes of the relationship.Analysis of climate model outputs shows that the Indian-North China summer rainfall relationship displays obvious temporal variations in both individual and ensemble mean model simulations and large differences among model simulations.This suggests an important role played by atmospheric internal variability in changes of the Indian-East Asian summer rainfall relationship.This point of view is supported by results from a 100-years AGCM simulation with climatological SST specified in the global ocean.The correlation between Indian and North China or southern Japan summer rainfall variations displays large fluctuations in the AGCM simulation

Evaluation on Radar Reflectivity-Rainfall Rate (Z-R) Relationships for Guyana

The constant development of science and technology in weather radar results in high-resolution spatial and temporal rainfall estimates and improved early warnings of meteorological phenomena such as flood [1]. Weather radars do not measure the rainfall amount directly, so a relationship between the reflectivity (Z) and rainfall rate (R), called the Z-R relationship (Z = aRb), where a and b are empirical constants, can be used to estimate the rainfall amount. In this research, mathematical techniques were used to find the best climatological Z-R relationships for the Low Coastal Plain of Guyana. The reflectivity data from the S-Band Doppler Weather Radar for February 17 and 21, 2011 and May 8, 2012 together with the daily rainfall depths at 29 rainfall stations located within a 150 km radius were investigated. A climatological Z-R relationship type Z = 200R1.6 (Marshall-Palmer) configured by default into the radar system was used to investigate the correlation between the radar reflectivity and the rainfall by gauges. The same data sets were used with two distinct experimental Z-R relationships, Z = 300R1.4 (WSR-88D Convective) and Z = 250R1.2 (Rosenfeld Tropical) to determine if any could be applicable for area of study. By comprehensive regression analysis, New Z-R and R-Z relationships for each of the three events aforementioned were developed. In addition, a combination of all the samples for all three events were used to produce another relationship called “All in One”. Statistical measures were then applied to detect BIAS and Error STD in order to produce more evidence-based results. It is proven that different Z-R relationships could be calibrated into the radar system to provide more accurate rainfall estimation.

Projected Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Relationships under Climate Change:A Case Study Thane City

Climate change is the most important factor to increase in short-duration high-intensity rainfall and consequent flooding.Intensity-Duration-Frequency(IDF)curves are commonly used tools in Stormwater design,so a method to derive future IDF curves including climate change effect could be necessary for the mainstreaming climate change information into storm water planning.The objective of the present study is to define a mechanism to reflect the effect of climate change into the projected rainfall IDF relationships.For this,the continuously observed hourly rainfall data from 1969 to 2018 were divided into five subgroups.Then the IDF curve of each subgroup is defined.The rainfall intensity for the next 30 years was then estimated using a linear regression model.The obtained result indicates that for the same duration and for the same return period,the rainfall intensity is likely to increase over time:17%(2019-2028),25%(2029-2038)and 32%(2039-2048).However,the findings presented in this paper will be useful for local authorities and decision makers in terms of improving stormwater design and future flood damage will be avoided.

Decadal Change in the Influence of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High on Summer Rainfall over the Yangtze River Basin in the Late 1970s

It is well known that on the interannual timescale,the westward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH)results in enhanced rainfall over the Yangtze River basin(YRB)in summer,and vice versa.This study identifies that this correspondence experiences a decadal change in the late 1970s.That is,the WNPSH significantly affects YRB precipitation(YRBP)after the late 1970s(P2)but not before the late 1970s(P1).It is found that enhanced interannual variability of the WNPSH favors its effect on YRB rainfall in P2.On the other hand,after removing the strong WNPSH cases in P2 and making the WNPSH variability equivalent to that in P1,the WNPSH can still significantly affect YRB rainfall,suggesting that the WNPSH variability is not the only factor that affects the WNPSH-YRBP relationship.Further results indicate that the change in basic state of thermal conditions in the tropical WNP provides a favorable background for the enhanced WNPSH-YRBP relationship.In P2,the lower-tropospheric atmosphere in the tropical WNP gets warmer and wetter,and thus the meridional gradient of climatological equivalent potential temperature over the YRB is enhanced.As a result,the WNPSH-related circulation anomalies can more effectively induce YRB rainfall anomalies through affecting the meridional gradient of equivalent potential temperature over the YRB.

Human induced dryland degradation in Ordos Plateau,China,revealed by multilevel statistical modeling of normalized difference vegetation index and rainfall time-series

Land degradation causes serious environmental problems in many regions of the world, and although it can be effectively assessed and monitored using a time series of rainfall and a normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI） from remotely-sensed imagery, dividing human-induced land degradation from vegetation dynamics due to climate change is not a trivial task. This paper presented a multilevel statistical modeling of the NDVI-rainfall relationship to detect human-induced land degradation at local and landscape scales in the Ordos Plateau of Inner Mongolia, China, and recognized that anthropogenic activities result in either positive （land restoration and re-vegetation） or negative （degradation） trends. Linear regressions were used to assess the accuracy of the multi- level statistical model. The results show that： （1） land restoration was the dominant process in the Ordos Plateau between 1998 and 2012; （2） the effect of the statistical removal of precipitation revealed areas of human-induced land degradation and improvement, the latter reflecting successful restoration projects and changes in land man- agement in many parts of the Ordos; （3） compared to a simple linear regression, multilevel statistical modeling could be used to analyze the relationship between the NDVI and rainfall and improve the accuracy of detecting the effect of human activities. Additional factors should be included when analyzing the NDVI-rainfall relationship and detecting human-induced loss of vegetation cover in drylands to improve the accuracy of the approach and elimi- nate some observed non-significant residual trends.

Case Study: Trends and Early Prediction of Rainfall in Jordan

Fourteen meteorological stations distributed over Jordan were selected. Data of annual and monthly rainfall amount of autumn (October and November) for a period more than 50 years were analyzed to show their relationships with the normal annual rainfall. An attempt was made to use the standard deviation values in order to have an early prediction for the annual rainfall (less or more than the normal) depending on the autumn rainfall amounts. It is found that the annual rainfall exceeded the normal when autumn rainfall amounts were more than 30 mm in Jurf El Daraweesh, Qatraneh, Safawi, and Wadi Musa, 50 mm in Mafraq, 60 mm in Amman, and 100 mm in Salt and Irbed. Regression analysis projected weak increasing trends in autumn and decreasing trends in the annual rainfall in the majority of Jordan.

Radar Rainfall Estimation of a Severe Thunderstorm over Jeddah

The regular occurrence of flash floods over the region of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia in the past decade has highlighted the serious need for the development of early warning systems. Radar stations have been installed in Jeddah in the last decade whose active radius covers the Middle Western area of the country. Therefore, radar information and the associated the rainfall estimates are potentially useful components of an effective early warning system. Weather radar can potentially provide high-resolution spatial and temporal rainfall estimates that bring more accuracy to flood warnings as well as having applications in areas with insufficient rainfall stations coverage. Weather radar does not measure rainfall depth directly. An empirical relationship between reflectivity (Z) and rainfall rate (R), called the Z-R relationship (Z = ARb), is generally used to assess the rainfall depth. In this study, the rainfall events during August-September 2007 were analyzed to develop a Z-R relationship using the Spatial Probability Technique (SPT). This technique is based on a basic GIS function and the probability matching method. Using this technique, the Z-R pairs can be analyzed for both linear and empirical power relationships. It is found that the empirical power function is more appropriate to describe Z-R relationship than a linear function for the studied area. The method is applied with some success to the flooding event of November 25, 2009. However, the investigation of the Z-R relationship is only one step in the development of a warning system;further study of other parameters relevant to rainfall and flash flood occurrence is needed.

Improving Radar Rainfall Estimation by Accounting for Microphysical Processes Using a Micro Rain Radar in West Africa

This study evaluates the improvement of the radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) by involving microphysical processes in the determination of Z-R algorithms. Within the framework of the AMMA campaign, measurements of an X-band radar (Xport), a vertical pointing Micro Rain Radar (MRR) to investigate microphysical processes and a dense network of rain gauges deployed in Northern Benin (West Africa) in 2006 and 2007 were used as support to establish such estimators and evaluate their performance compared to other estimators in the literature. By carefully considering and correcting MRR attenuation and calibration issues, the Z-R estimator developed with the contribution of microphysical processes and non-linear least-squares adjustment proves to be more efficient for quantitative rainfall estimation and produces the best statistic scores than other optimal Z-R algorithms in the literature. We also find that it gives results comparable to some polarimetric algorithms including microphysical information through DSD integrated parameter retrievals.

North Atlantic Oscillation and Rainfall Variability in Southeastern Nigeria:A Statistical Analysis of 30 Year Period

This study analyzed rainfall variability in Southeast region of Nigeria using graphical models,as well as using statistical approach to investigate any significant relationship between the global North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)Index and the regional rainfall variability in region.The study was conducted in three States of Southeastern Nigeria namely,Abia,Ebonyi and Imo States that lie between Latitudes 4040’and 8050’N and Longitudes 6020’and 8050’E.Data for the study included 30 years(1988-2017)archival time-series monthly rainfall values for the three study States,acquired from Nigerian Meteorological Agency(NIMET),offices in the states,and Standardized values of NAOI(North Atlantic Oscillation Index)for the same period,which were collected from a website,on the NOAA Data Center,USA.In the data analyses,the first method was adopted by using graphs to illustrate mean annual rainfall values for thirty years.Coefficient of variability was employed in evaluating the degree of variability of values from the mean rate.The second analysis was accomplished using correlation models to ascertain any relationship between NAOI and rainfall in Southeast Nigeria.The results showed a significant variability of rainfall in the region from January to December(mean monthly)within the study period.A negative correlation value of 0.7525 was obtained from the correlation analysis,showing that the global NAO index and rainfall variability deviate in the opposite direction.Coefficient of multiple determinations(CMD)subsequently showed value of 0.031%,being the variation in rainfall as influenced by the global teleconnectivity,and this means that the NAO index has zero or no influence on rainfall variability in Southeast region of Nigeria.

闽江流域多时间尺度降雨—径流关系变化与成因

为进一步揭示闽江流域降雨—径流关系的时空变化规律,识别主要驱动因子,基于1960—2019年降雨和径流数据,应用TFPW—MK方法,按照年以及年内的汛期与非汛期、前汛期和后汛期、最大月和最小月等不同时间尺度,检测闽江上游三大支流、干流及全流域等空间尺度的降雨—径流演变趋势;结合Sen trend方法,从气候变化、土地利用和水库工程建设3方面,分析影响降雨—径流关系变化的成因。结果表明:1)闽江流域及各支流年降雨—径流均呈不显著上升,趋势变化一致;2)除支流建溪流域,闽江及其他支流非汛期降雨—径流上升趋势显著;汛期内部趋势变化分化明显,前汛期降雨—径流略减少,后汛期降雨—径流大部分显著增加;3)极端降雨—径流的变化趋势不一致,主要受大型水库工程建设的影响。基于多时间尺度的分析,更深入揭示闽江流域降水、径流的演变及气候变化与人类活动的影响,对区域水资源管理与水土保持具有重要参考价值。

秦淮河流域典型排涝泵站前池水质与降雨特征响应关系

为分析排涝泵站前池水质与降雨特征的响应关系,对南京市城区秦淮河沿线2个排涝泵站前池水质以及降水量开展高频在线自动监测,结合回归树方法分析了不同降雨强度、前期干旱时间条件下排涝泵站前池水质变化规律,探讨了不同类型排涝泵站前池水质的主要影响因素。结果表明:晴雨天均有生活污水汇入的A泵站前池氨氮质量浓度在大雨强下降低,中雨强下先升高后降低,小雨强下平缓上升,A泵站前池污染物质量浓度主要受降雨强度和次降水量影响;主要接收降雨径流,雨量大时有生活污水溢流汇入的B泵站,前池污染物质量浓度在大雨强下先升高后逐渐降低,中雨强下降低,小雨强下变化不大,B泵站前池水质主要受次降水量、前期干旱时间和降雨强度影响;2个泵站前池COD_(Mn)质量浓度变化与降雨的响应规律相似,但更多受到与前期干旱时间关联的地表径流冲刷作用影响;连续降雨均导致泵站前池氨氮质量浓度和COD_(Mn)质量浓度波动变化较大,而前期干旱时间越长,降雨发生后泵站前池水质越差。

太原地区雨滴谱季节分布特征

利用2017年12月-2022年11月太原雨滴谱数据,研究太原地区不同雨强和不同降水类型雨滴谱季节分布特征。结果表明:太原地区四季谱分布均呈单峰结构且均以雨滴直径D<1 mm的小雨滴为主,但对雨强R贡献最大的是D为1~2 mm的雨滴。各季节R<1 mm·h^(-1)的降雨均占比最大,但夏季超过50%雨量来自R≥5 mm·h^(-1)雨滴的贡献;R<2 mm·h^(-1)时,冬季大雨滴浓度更高,而小雨滴浓度相对较低;R≥5 mm·h^(-1)时,夏季雨滴浓度更高。四季均以层状云降水为主,标准化截距参数lgNw和质量加权直径D_(m)差异较小;对流云降水多发生在夏季且更接近海洋性对流,春、秋季既非大陆性也非海洋性对流。采用最小二乘法得到形状因子与斜率参数的μ-λ、降水动能以及反射率因子与雨强的Z-R关系曲线,其中μ-λ季节变化小,但地域性差异显著;幂函数和二项式函数分别对于降水动能参数关系E_(t)-R和E_(d)-D_(m)拟合效果更优;Z-R关系系数与指数成反比,对于层状云降水,春、秋季经典关系均高估降雨,冬、夏季存在经典关系由高估转为低估的情况;对于对流云降水,夏、秋季经典关系略高估降雨。

2021年夏季长白山麓雨滴谱分布特征

利用2021年6—8月吉林靖宇Parsivel2型雨滴谱观测数据,研究长白山麓夏季不同降水类型和不同降水强度条件下雨滴谱特征,并与国内外研究对比。结果表明:长白山麓夏季降水雨滴直径对降水量贡献呈先增大后减小的趋势,贡献较大的直径区间为0.812~2.375 mm,随着降水强度增大,大雨滴(直径D≥2.75 mm)对降水量贡献也增大;对流降水比层云降水的雨滴谱更宽,雨滴数浓度及平均直径也更大;与国外经典对流降水雨滴谱相比,长白山麓对流降水标准截距参数lgNw及质量等效直径Dm特征更接近海洋型降水,与北京延庆及大兴、安徽滁州、江苏浦口相比,长白山麓夏季降水雨滴具有较小的直径和较大的数浓度;长白山麓夏季对流降水和层云降水反射率因子Z与降水强度R拟合关系分别为Z=290.64R1.27和Z=193.36R1.65,经典Z-R关系对该地区降水估测存在低估;形状参数μ、斜率参数Λ存在较好的二项式拟合关系。

场次暴雨条件下濂水流域水沙关系探究

为探究场次暴雨条件下流域的水沙关系,该研究以赣南濂水流域为对象,基于1965—2020年的水文气象数据和土地利用数据,运用聚类分析、判别分析和Spearman相关分析等,在场次暴雨条件下,分析不同洪水类型、不同时段下的水沙特征及水沙关系,并对水沙滞回关系进行探究。结果表明:流域120场暴雨洪水划分为3种类型,发生频率由高到低依次为:Ⅲ型(短历时、小径流、低洪峰)、Ⅰ型(长历时、中径流、中洪峰)、Ⅱ型(中历时、大径流、高洪峰)。整个研究期划分的5个时段中,1996-2005年、2006-2020年的输沙特征值增幅较大,且单位径流的输沙能力大幅上升。不同洪水类型下的各水沙环路曲线比例差异较大;在不同时段下,逆时针型、“8”字型曲线分别在1996-2005年、2006-2020年的比例最高,分别为43.0%、55.6%,这与流域内果园大面积开发导致的沙源位置及数量的改变有着密切关系。研究成果可为流域的水沙管理及调控提供科学依据。

山西晋城“7·11”暴雨过程雨滴谱特征

利用降水现象仪观测资料,对2021年7月11日山西晋城一次暴雨过程的雨滴谱特征进行分析。结果表明:雨滴数浓度、雨强和谱宽随时间变化趋势基本一致;雨滴直径等级频数百分率和质量百分率分布均呈明显的双峰或三峰结构;此次过程以直径D<1 mm的小雨滴为主,其对雨强R的贡献率仅为7.46%,而1 mm≤D<3 mm的大雨滴对R的贡献率达到了77.44%;雨滴落速主要集中在2~5 m/s。当R≥20 mm/h时,Gamma分布参数N0、μ和λ随时间的起伏变化相对平缓,平均变化率分别为6.2%、46.7%和18.0%;lg N_(W)-D_(m)分布显示,此次低涡暴雨过程既非大陆性对流降水,亦非海洋性对流降水;μ-λ之间存在较好的二项式函数关系,相关系数为0.901。幂函数对于降水动能参数关系Et-R和Ed-R的拟合性能更优,二项式函数拟合对于Ed-Dm效果更好。采用最小二乘法得到Z-R拟合关系,在R≥20 mm/h时,估测效果优于经典Z-R关系。

赣江上游桃江流域水沙变化及驱动因素

为揭示近年来赣江上游输沙量急剧减少的影响因素及其贡献率,以赣江上游桃江流域为例,采用流域内13个雨量站1958—2018年降水数据计算得出面雨量和流域控制站居龙滩站同期径流、输沙数据,结合趋势分析、突变检验等方法,对桃江流域61 a水沙变化特征进行分析,并采用累积量斜率变化率比较法计算气候因子和人类活动在各个时段对流域水沙变化的相对贡献率。结果表明:桃江流域多年平均降水量、径流量和输沙量分别为1565.5 mm、60.36亿m^(3)和112.5万t;流域61 a降雨和径流无显著变化趋势和突变点,但降雨、径流在1972和1985年有明显波动;年输沙量存在显著减少趋势(α<0.01),在2002年发生突变(P<0.001);若以人类活动相对较弱的1958—1972年为基准期,计算得到1973—1985、1986—2002和2003—2018年人类活动对流域输沙量减少的贡献率分别为79.14%、92.05%和100%;以水库建设为代表的水利工程和水土保持措施等人类活动是赣江上游桃江流域输沙量减少的主导因素。研究对于评价水利工程等人类活动对流域水沙的影响具有参考价值,可为流域实施水土保持措施提供科学依据。