The Population Carrying Capacity of Water Resources in Yulin City

Assessing the water resource carrying capacity is beneficial for measuring the scale of industry and population agglomeration,and also avoiding the contradiction between increasing people and decreasing available water resource,due to the expansion of industry and city size.Based on the prediction model of optimum population development size,by using hydrological data,also with the demographic data from 1956 to 2010,this article analyzes and predicts the urban moderate scale under the limit of the water resource in the future of Yulin City by GIS. The main conclusions are as follows. There is growing tendency of water resources overloading. According to the result of model simulation,by2015,the overload rate of population size will be 1. 04. By 2020,the overload rate of population size will grow up to 1. 08. The oversized population mainly comes from cities and towns. The overload rate for cities and towns in 2015 and 2020 is 1. 89 and 1. 73,respectively. With the expansion of cities and industries,suburban areas could have a great potential for carrying population,because lots of suburban people may move to cities and towns according to prediction. In view of the above-mentioned facts,the population size should be controlled in a reasonable range.

RESEARCH ON THE POPULATION CARRYING CAPACITY OF THE LAND RESOURCES IN THE ECONOMIC AREA OF ZHUJIANG DELTA

The authors once made a preliminary research on population carrying capacity of the land in the Economic Area of Zhujiang Delta (EAZD for short) in 1995, and reckoned that the ultimate population in this region will be 23 550 thousand by year of 2000. While the population in being in EAZD was 22.62 million in 1999.This accords with the prefigured result in the rough from the point of view of development. According to the data of plow land resources from the 2000 Statistical Yearbook of EAZD and the study on the population-foodstuff-plow land relationship, this paper calculates the productive potential of plow land and the population carrying capacity of land by year of 2010, and puts forward the countermeasures for improving the population carrying capacity of land in this region.

Spatial and Dynamic Analysis of Regional Sustainable Development Using Geographic Information System and Relative Carrying Capacity of Resources

Relative carrying capacity of resources is an index to measure sustainable development through carrying capacity. Case studies of eleven cities in Zhejiang (Hangzhou, Ningbo, Wenzhou, Jiaxing, Huzhou, Shaoxing, Jinhua, Quzhou, Zhoushan, Taizhou and Lishui) illustrated regional sustainable development approach. In this study, to provide insight into spatial and dynamic analysis of region sustainable development, we calculated the relative carrying capacity of land resources and economical resources and synthetical carrying capacity of resources in different cities in Zhejiang, and geographic information system was carried out. The results showed that all cities but Hangzhou and Ningbo were ecologically sustainable, and relative carrying capacity of land resources in northern and eastern Zhejiang was larger than those in southern and western Zhejiang. The sampling years of Wenzhou, Hangzhou and Ningbo contribution rates of land resource to synthetic carrying capacity were grouped into three stages, and there were two milestones trends and changes in 1996 and 2004, respectively. This study demonstrated that geographic information system and relative carrying capacity of resources are effective for assessment of region sustainable development, and provide policy guidelines for decision-making.

Safety Evaluation of Water Environment Carrying Capacity of Five Cities in Ningxia Based on Ecological Footprint of Water Resources

[Objectives]To make safety evaluation of water environment carrying capacity of five cities in Ningxia based on ecological footprint of water resources.[Methods]With the help of the grey relational model,15 indicators were selected from the natural,economic,and social aspects,and the most influential factors in the three fields were selected.Based on the concept of ecological priority,the water resources carrying capacity of the five cities in Ningxia from 2010 to 2019 was calculated with the help of the water resources ecological footprint model.Then,the indicators of the water resources ecological footprint model were coupled with the existing indicators to establish a comprehensive evaluation indicator system.Finally,the changes of the water environment carrying capacity of the five cities in Ningxia were analyzed with the help of the principal component analysis(PCA).[Results]The ecological pressure of water resources and the ecological deficit of water resources in the five cities were relatively large.Specifically,Yinchuan City had the most obvious deficit of water resources but good carrying capacity;Zhongwei City had a large ecological deficit of water resources,poor carrying capacity,and the largest ecological pressure index of water resources;Guyuan City had low water resources ecological deficit,water resources ecological carrying capacity and water resources ecological pressure index.[Conclusions]Through the analysis of the coupling indicator system,it can be seen that the water environment carrying capacity of the five cities is in an upward trend,indicating that the water environment in each region tends to become better.

Evaluation on water resources carrying capacity of Changchun-Jilin Region

Based on such principles as sustainable development and ecological cycle, this paper evaluates the water resources carrying capacity(WCC) of Changchun-Jilin region using a population-economy-water resources correlation evaluation model built on the basis of WCC evaluation method as elaborated in the methodology of Functional Zoning of Population Development. Results show that the annual WCC of Changchun-Jilin region is able to support the population there, as a basic balance is struck between population and water resources. The incorporation of WCC into overall urban planning is one of the building blocks for sustainable city development with an advisable size.

Assessment on the Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Karst Area Based on the Cosine Vector Included Angle

[Objective] The research aimed to assess the water resources carrying capacity in Guizhou Province based on the cosine vector included angle method. [Method] By using the cosine vector included angle method, the index weight was determined. The projection value of water resources carrying capacity in Guizhou Province was counted by using the multi-objective gray relational projection method. Moreover, the projection value which was counted by the index weight determined by the mean-variance method was as the control. [Result] The projection values which were obtained by two kinds of methods were very close, and the ordering result was consistent. [Conclusion] In the assessment of water resources carrying capacity, it was feasible to use the cosine vector included angle method to determine the index weight.

Quantitative evaluation of Tibet’s resource and environmental carrying capacity

This study identifies the carrying state and value of Tibet’s resource and environmental carrying capacity.A new theoretical framework is proposed for exploring the resource and environmental carrying capacity based on two perspectives of“growth limit”and“stability of Human-Earth relationship system”.On this basis,an ideal growth model that accords with the“short board”effect is established to predict the population limitation.Analytical results show that the holistic state of resource and environmental carrying capacity in Tibet is in jeopardy.From 2010 to 2016,Tibet’s carrying state continued to decline,moreover,the negative forces still overwhelm the positive forces.Although the resource reserves still have room for more population,the environmental capacity and ecological capacity have been overloaded.Meanwhile,the Human-Earth relationship system is in an unstable stage.Three scenarios that respond to different socioeconomic developments are implemented to predict the population limitation of resource and environmental carrying capacity in Tibet;thus,authors argue that Tibet should keep its population size within 4 million around 2025.This research will provide reference for sustainable development and resources and environmental conservation in Tibet.

基于NMF-KELM的资源环境承载力评价与预测

资源环境承载力评价与预测对区域可持续发展有重要的指导意义。本文提出了基于非负矩阵分解(NMF)和核极限学习机(KELM)的资源环境承载力评价与预测方法,在构建江西省资源环境承载力指标体系的基础上,引入NMF对2005—2020年该地区资源环境承载力状况进行量化测度和系统分析,利用加权灰关联法和全排列多边形图示法对承载力结果验证分析,建立了基于NMF-KELM的承载力预测模型并对承载力的演变趋势进行预测。研究结果表明:①2005—2020年,江西省资源环境承载力指数由0.0963提高至0.7975,整体呈波动上升趋势,高速发展的社会经济是承载力的最直接驱动力。②NMF、加权灰关联法和全排列多边形图示法三者反映的趋势和结论是一致的,NMF评价结果更客观。③环境系统成为制约江西省资源环境承载力提高的主要因素,其中万元GDP工业废气排放量是最重要的影响因素。④与BP神经网络和灰色模型相比,基于NMF-KELM的承载力预测模型拟合精度高,能够更好地预测江西省资源环境承载力的演变趋势。

The Population Carrying Capacity of Waters Ecosystem in China

The study of waters ecosystem and their population carrying capacity demonstrates the role of these ecosystems in economic and social development and provides a theoretical basis for the management and allocation of aquatic ecosystems. In this study, the concept of waters ecosystem population carrying capacity was defined and developmental trends in the population carrying capacity of waters ecosystem in China were evaluated. Results show that waters ecosystem population carrying capacity in China increased from 0.176×109 person year-1 in 2000 to 0.255 × 109 person year-1 in 2010; the population carrying capacity of the standard sea remained at 0.2-0.3 person ha 1; and the standard inland waters population carrying capacity increased from 1.8 to 3.2 person ha-1. This analysis indicates notable regional difference in waters population carrying capacity. In southeastern coastal China and Yangtze River drainage areas where inland waters are widely distributed and aquaculture is developed, the population carrying capacity is higher; however, in northwest China where water resource are deficient and the distribution is relatively small, the waters population carrying capacity is low. The waters ecosystem population carrying capacity of China in 2030 was predicted and results indicate strong potential for increasing waters population carrying capacity.

基于博弈论组合赋权的云南省水资源承载力评价

水资源承载力是指一个区域或国家所能提供的可持续利用的水资源量,它直接关系到社会经济的可持续发展和生态环境的健康,也是衡量特定区域水资源供需平衡能力的重要指标。本文将对云南省水资源承载力进行分析评价,首先运用博弈论组合赋权法,结合专家打分的层次分析法和客观分析原始数据的熵权法及变异系数法,得出综合权重;然后采用灰色关联度改进的逼近理想解的排序方法(Technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution,TOPSIS)及耦合协调分析法,综合得出云南省在2008~2020年间水资源承载力的变化情况并做出评价。结果表明,2008~2020年水资源承载力总体呈上升趋势,其中,经济子系统和社会子系统的承载力始终保持持续上升的状态,而水资源子系统和生态环境子系统则出现波动情况。2008~2014年,云南省为大力发展经济,牺牲了一定的水资源合理开发利用,但在2014年后,开始注重水资源保护,实施绿色可持续发展战略,水资源子系统的承载力逐步提升。

Assessment of the Water Resources Carrying Capacity in the Great Dunhuang Region

Water resources carrying capacity(WRCC) is an important index for assessing the coordinated development relationship between population and water resources. The quantitative evaluation of WRCC can provide an important basis for water resource regulation and sustainable economic and social development. Based on the statistical data of cities and counties in the Great Dunhuang Region(GDR), and taking counties as the basic units,this study quantitatively analyzed the WRCC and carrying status of the GDR under different water inflow conditions and policy constraints from 2010 to 2017. The study revealed three main trends.(1) From 2010 to 2017, the WRCC of the GDR increased year by year, from 343700, 315900 and 291100 people to 458700, 415400 and 375600people in normal, dry and extremely dry years, respectively.(2) Under policy constraints, the WRCC of the GDR increased year by year from 309400 people in 2010 to 412400 people in 2017. Based on future estimates, the WRCC of the GDR are expected to be 326600 people in 2020 and 341200 people in 2030.(3) From 2010 to 2017,the water resources carrying index of the GDR was decreasing, and it decreased from 1.05, 1.14 and 1.24 to 0.80,0.88 and 0.97 in normal, dry and extremely dry years, respectively. The carrying status changed from critical overload to balanced. Although the WRCC and the carrying status of the GDR had significantly improved by 2017, the overall upper limit of the carrying capacity is not high. Therefore, efforts should be made to improve the utilization efficiency of water resources in order to maintain the sustainable utilization of water resources in the GDR.

量-效刚性约束下中国省际水资源承载力评价

为了探究水资源量-效刚性约束与区域经济发展的适配性,解决以无量纲相对指数划分水资源承载力状态的局限性,构建以量-效为刚性约束条件,以经济发展水平、人均福利水平、城镇化水平为一般约束条件,人口规模为目标函数的水资源承载力评价模型。通过比较2015—2020年实际人口规模与量-效刚性约束下人口规模,得到各地区水资源承载状态。研究结果表明:1)2015—2020年,在全国层面,水资源承载力未超载,量-效刚性约束下均属于宽松的约束;2)2015—2020年,在省级层面,黑龙江、江苏、安徽、新疆的水资源承载力一直处于超载状态,京冀地区、宁夏、西藏、江西、广东略微超载,其他地区未超载。量-效刚性约束需进一步调整和管控。

中国主要省会城市水资源生态足迹与适宜承载人口规模

[目的]评估中国主要省会城市的水资源承载情况与适宜人口规模,为“以水定人”政策的落实和城市可持续发展战略的实施提供参考。[方法]基于水资源和人口数据,采用生态足迹方法分析了2010—2020年中国省会城市的水资源生态足迹及其水资源承载力,结合生活用水现状以定额法估算了各省会城市的适宜承载人口规模。[结果]①超过半数省会城市年人均水资源占有量不足500 m 3,多数城市生活用水占总用水量的两成,而北京市和郑州市的生活用水比例达到45%,高比例的生活用水使城市供水压力巨大;②人均水资源量较高的省会城市呈现水资源生态盈余状态,但约2/3的城市呈现水资源生态赤字状态;2010—2020年平均人均盈余最高者为南宁市(2.20 hm^(2)/人),赤字最高者为银川市(-1.66 hm^(2)/人);水资源生态盈亏分布呈现“南方盈余,北方亏损”的格局,但是长江中下游地区部分省会城市也呈现赤字状态;③以“粗放”与“节约”两种用水情形评估省会城市适宜承载人口数量。各地适宜承载人口数量与现状人口数量存在较大差异。[结论]为促进经济社会可持续发展,水资源浪费严重的城市应当加强节水城市建设,而居民生活用水标准较低的城市应考虑减小其人口规模以提升居民用水体验与生活质量。

Evaluating Beijing’s human carrying capacity from the perspective of water resource constraints

As the demands on limited water resources intensify, concerns are being raised about the human carrying capacity of these resources. However, few researchers have studied the carrying capacity of regional water resources. Beijing, the second-largest city in China, faces a critical water shortage that will limit the city’s future development. We developed a method to quantify the carrying capacity of Beijing’s water resources by considering water-use structures based on the proportions of water used for agricultural, industrial, and domestic purposes. We defined a reference structure as 45：22：33 （% of total, respectively）, an optimized structure as 40：20：40, and an ideal structure as 50：15：35. We also considered four domestic water quotas： 55, 75, 95, and 115 m 3 /（person·yr）. The urban carrying capacity of 10–12 million was closest to Beijing’s actual 2003 population for all three water-use structures with urban domestic water use of 75 m 3 /（person·yr）. However, after accounting for our underlying assumptions, the adjusted carrying capacity is closer to 5–6 million. Thus, Beijing’s population in 2003 was almost twice the adjusted carrying capacity. Based on this result, we discussed the ecological and environmental problems created by Beijing’s excessive population and propose measures to mitigate these problems.

塔里木河流域相对资源承载力

基于改进的相对资源承载力模型,计算2000—2011年塔里木河流域的相对资源人口承载力和相对资源经济承载力,并探讨塔河流域42个县市相对资源承载力的演变规律及空间差异。研究表明:(1)改进的相对资源承载力模型具有一定的研究价值,对于拓宽相对资源承载力评价模型的应用具有实践意义。(2)以新疆为参照区,塔河流域2000—2011年处于人口严重超载、经济非常富余或富余阶段。(3)与全疆相比,土地资源是塔河流域的相对优势资源,水资源是制约塔河流域人口、经济发展的相对劣势资源。(4)以塔河流域为参照区,流域内42个县市的相对资源人口承载力和相对资源经济承载力的空间差异显著。(4)依据相对资源人口、经济承载力的超载、富余状态将塔河流域42县市归为A、B、C、D 4种资源承载力匹配区,并总结其时序演变特点和发展策略。

人口与经济协调发展的相对资源承载力实证分析--以湖北省为例

以全国水平为理想状态参照区域,选择湖北省为研究载体,介绍了以人口和经济为双重考量的相对资源承载力分析方法。对湖北省相对资源人口与经济承载力的动态分析表明,湖北省1978-2005年相对资源人口承载力呈小幅波动的平稳发展趋势,相对资源经济承载力呈稳步上升的趋势。其中相对自然资源人口承载力呈小幅波动的缓慢上升趋势,相对经济资源人口承载力呈小幅波动的缓慢下降趋势。总体上,湖北省处于人口超载、经济承载力富余的状态。

甘肃省土地资源承载力格局的时空演变分析

以人粮关系为基础,构建了土地资源承载指数(LCCI)模型,从时间和空间2个尺度定量评价了1985—2010年甘肃省土地资源承载力的时空格局,并以1985、1990、2000、2010年为代表年份,讨论了全省14地州(市)、86县(区)近26年来土地资源承载力的发展趋势。研究结果表明:①1985—2010年全省粮食产量稳中有升,土地资源承载力指数逐年降低,土地资源承载力略有增强,但全省人粮关系总体形势依然严峻。②河西走廊绿洲农业区是全省主要粮食盈余区,土地资源承载力稳居全省之首;陇东高原区以低水平的人粮平衡为主,土地资源承载力年际变化较大;人口压力较大的陇中高原以及粮食生产水平较低的陇南山地、甘南高原区主要表现为粮食短缺,人口超载,土地承载力状况不容乐观。③河西走廊和陇东高原区所辖县域中,粮食盈余县域在增加,人口超载县域在减少,局部区域人粮矛盾得到缓解;陇中高原和陇南山地所辖各县的土地资源承载力指数在逐年降低,土地资源承载力在逐步增强,但绝大部分县域仍然处于不同程度的人口超载状态。④1985—2010年全省土地资源承载力格局在时间和空间上都发生显著变化,但是基于自然、经济层面的区域人粮关系在相当长的时间内无法扭转和改变。随着城市化进程加快,粮食短缺地区的人粮矛盾会进一步加剧,粮食调配和贸易趋势也就会越发明显,此时粮食主产区的空间集聚效应对本区域和全省的人粮平衡作用也就日益突出。

浅析水资源与人口、经济和社会环境的关系

水资源是人类社会生存和发展的物质基础,水资源问题是涉及到包括人口、经济、社会与环境的一个复杂巨系统。在对水资源的概念及其自然、经济和社会等属性综述的基础上,详细论述了水资源与水文循环、水量平衡结构、人口、经济、社会与环境等的相互关系,并以黄河流域水资源问题为例,说明目前阶段的水资源问题与人口、经济发展、社会与环境的联系愈加紧密。在上述分析的基础上,作者认为水资源承载力是刻画水资源与区域人口、经济、社会与环境复杂关系的一个很好的分析途径,并进一步明晰了水资源承载力的概念和研究方向。

基于SD模型的肃州区水资源承载力

以甘肃省酒泉市肃州区为研究对象,以可承载人口数量及经济规模为主要体现,采用系统动力学方法建立水资源承载力模型.根据研究区现状,模拟出各种产业结构及用水水平下水资源可承载的人口数量及经济、生态规模.

改进的模糊综合评价法在水资源承载力评价中的应用

用变异系数法及层次分析(analytic hierarchy process,AHP)法计算组合权重,并将灰色关联分析法中的灰关联系数应用于模糊综合评价模型中的模糊关系矩阵,结合定性、定量分析,对模糊综合评价模型进行改进。将改进后的模糊综合评价法应用于江阴市水资源承载力评价,结果表明,与传统模糊综合评价法相比,综合评价结果相同,但是计算结果对于各个评价等级的隶属度差距减小,降低了主观影响,说明改进后的评价方法在区域水资源承载力评价中应用良好。