Product reliability assessment based on proportional hazard degradation model

In order to evaluate the reliability of long-lifetime products with degradation data, a new proportional hazard degradation model is proposed. By the similarity between time-degradation data and stress-accelerated lifetime, and the failure rate function of degradation data which is assumed to be proportional to the time covariate, the reliability assessment based on a proportional hazard degradation model is realized. The least squares method is used to estimate the model＇s parameters. Based on the failure rate of the degradation data and the proportion function of the known time, the failure rate and the reliability function under the given time and the predetermined failure threshold can be extrapolated. A long life GaAs laser is selected as a case study and its reliability is evaluated. The results show that the proposed method can accurately describe the degradation process and it is effective for the reliability assessment of long lifetime products.

System reliability assessment based on Wiener process and competing failure analysis

Considering the dependence and competitive relation-ship between traumatic failure and degradation,the reliability assessment of products based on competing failure analysis is studied.The hazard rate of traumatic failure is regarded as a Weibull distribution of the degradation performance,and the Wiener process is used to describe the degradation process.The parameters are estimated with the maximum likelihood estimation（MLE）method.A reliability model based on competing failure analysis is proposed.A case study of the GaAs lasers is given to validate the effectiveness of the model and its solving method.The results indicate that if only the degradation failure is considered,the estimated result will be comparably optimistic.Meanwhile,the correlation between the degradation and traumatic failure has a great influence on the accuracy of reliability assessment.

ON INFORMATION THEORY METHOD FOR RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT OF SYSTEMS CONSISTING OF DIFFERENT SUCCESS FAILURE MODEL UNITS

Using the characteristic of addition of information quantity and the principle of equivalence of information quantity, this paper derives the general conversion formulae of the formation theory method conversion (synthesis) on the systems consisting of different success failure model units. According to the fundamental method of the unit reliability assessment, the general models of system reliability approximate lower limits are given. Finally, this paper analyses the application of the assessment method by examples, the assessment results are neither conservative nor radical and very satisfactory. The assessment method can be popularized to the systems which have fixed reliability structural models.

A Global Reliability Assessment Method on Aging Offshore Platforms with Corrosion and Cracks

Corrosion and fatigue cracks are major threats to the structural integrity of aging offshore platforms. For the rational estimation of the safety levels of aging platforms, a global reliability assessment approach for aging offshore platforms with corrosion and fatigue cracks is presented in this paper. The base shear capacity is taken as the global ultimate strength of the offshore platforms. It is modeled as a random process that decreases with time in the presence of corrosion and fatigue crack propagation. And the corrosion and fatigue crack growth rates in the main members and key joints are modeled as random variables. A simulation method of the extreme wave loads which are applied to the structures of offshore platforms is proposed too. Furthermore, the statistics of global base shear capacity and extreme wave loads are obtained by Monte Carlo simulation method. On the basis of the limit state equation of global failure mode, the instantaneous reliability and time dependent reliability assessment methods are both presented in this paper. Finally the instantaneous reliability index and time dependent failure probability of a jacket platform are estimated with different ages in the demonstration example.

Reliability assessment on interfacial failure of thermal barrier coatings

Thermal barrier coatings（TBCs） usually exhibit an uncertain lifetime owing to their scattering mechanical properties and severe service conditions. To consider these uncertainties, a reliability assessment method is proposed based on failure probability analysis. First, a limit state equation is established to demarcate the boundary between failure and safe regions, and then the failure probability is calculated by the integration of a probability density function in the failure area according to the first- or second-order moment.It is shown that the parameters related to interfacial failure follow a Weibull distribution in two types of TBC. The interfacial failure of TBCs is significantly affected by the thermal mismatch of material properties and the temperature drop in service.

Bayesian method for system reliability assessment of overlapping pass/fail data

For high reliability and long life systems, system pass/fail data are often rare. Integrating lower-level data, such as data drawn from the subsystem or component pass/fail testing,the Bayesian analysis can improve the precision of the system reliability assessment. If the multi-level pass/fail data are overlapping,one challenging problem for the Bayesian analysis is to develop a likelihood function. Since the computation burden of the existing methods makes them infeasible for multi-component systems, this paper proposes an improved Bayesian approach for the system reliability assessment in light of overlapping data. This approach includes three steps： fristly searching for feasible paths based on the binary decision diagram, then screening feasible points based on space partition and constraint decomposition, and finally simplifying the likelihood function. An example of a satellite rolling control system demonstrates the feasibility and the efficiency of the proposed approach.

Probabilistic seismic response and reliability assessment of isolated bridges

Bridge seismic isolation strategy is based on the reduction of shear forcestransmitted from the superstructure to the piers by two means: shifting natural period andearthquake input energy reduction by dissipation concentrated in protection devices. In this paper,a stochastic analysis of a simple isolated bridge model for different bridge and device parametersis conducted to assess the efficiency of this seismic protection strategy. To achieve this aim, asimple nonlinear softening constitutive law is adopted to model a wide range of isolation devices,characterized by only three essential mechanical parameters. As a consequence of the random natureof seismic motion, a probabilistic analysis is carried out and the time modulated Kanai-Tajimistochastic process is adopted to represent the seismic action. The response covariance in the statespace is obtained by solving the Lyapunov equation for a stochastic linearized system. After asensitivity analysis, the failure probability referred to extreme displacement and the mean value ofdissipated energy are assessed by using the introduced stochastic indices of seismic bridgeprotection efficiency. A parametric analysis for protective devices with different mechanicalparameters is developed for a proper selection of parameters of isolation devices under differentsituations.

Reliability Assessment of Distribution SystemBased on Discrete-event System

Discrete-event system simulation technology is used to analyze distribution system reliability in this paper. A simulation model, including entity state models, system state models, state transition models, reliability criterion model, is established. ‘Next happen event’ is taken as impulse principle of simulator clock to determine the sequence of random event occurrence dynamically. The results show this method is feasible.

Probabilistic Methods for Reliability Assessment of Floating Structures Based on Extreme Wave Simulation

With the increasing application of floating platforms in deep waters and harsh environments,a proper assessment of the reliability of floating structures is important to ensure that these structures can operate safely during their design lives.This study outlines a practical methodology for reliability analysis of a semi-submersible platform based estimating the probability distribution of the extreme response in rough sea conditions(survival conditions).The Constrained NewWave(CNW)theory combined with Monte Carlo simulations was first applied to simulate the random wave surface elevation process in the time domain.A Gumbel distribution was the best fitting to describe the dynamically sensitive extreme response statistics under extreme waves(drift and mooring tension).The derived probability distribution of the extreme response was subsequently used in estimation of the associated limit state func-tion,and a reliability analysis of the floating structure was conducted using the Monte Carlo method.A semi-submersible platform in a water depth of 1500 m subjected to extreme wave loads was used to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed methodology.The probability of failure of the semi-submersible when considering mooring lines tension is greater than considering drift.

Methods for Reliability Assessment under Irregular Time-Varying-Stress Degradation Testing

Degradation tests are often used to assess the reliability of products with long failure-time or few test units. Much of the previous work on reliability assessment methods has focused on constant-stress degradation test( CSDT) and accelerated degradation test( ADT), mainly under the constant, step or progressive stresses. However,in actual testing environments,some stresses are difficult to control and vary with time irregularly,which are quite different from the three stresses mentioned above. In this paper a new approach was presented for reliability assessment with degradation data under irregular time-varying-stress( ITVS).Firstly,the conventional degradation path modeling method was improved by taking into account the influences of the variable stress on the degradation variable. Then,an example was conducted to show the effectiveness of our improved model.

Integrated Grease-pouring System Design and Reliability Assessment of Engineering Equipment

Because of poor lubrication, the abrasion of the engineering equipment＇s key connection position （the hinge joint and so on） has become the major factor that affects the mechanical benefit. The excavator WY60 is taken as an example in this paper. The automatic grease-pouring, the working state test, and the alarm for fault of every lubricating point on the machine is accomplished by the control sub-system, the lubricating system and other correlated components. The principle and functions of the system are described. The work condition is analyzed. Finally, we present the plan of the software and the hardware of the system, and set up the fuzzy assessment model of reliability of the system.

A Branch-independence-based Reliability Assessment Approach for Transmission Systems

This paper proposes a branch-independence-based reliability assessment approach for transmission systems.The approach consists of branch decoupling and state-space partition techniques.By integrating an impact-increment-based reliability index calculation model and the proposed branch decoupling technique,a proportion of sampled contingency states no longer need to be analyzed using the time-consuming optimal power flow(OPF)algorithm.In this way,the technique speeds up the calculation of reliability indices.Since first-order contingency states have a high probability of being sampled,we propose a state-space partition technique to replace first-order contingency state simulation with first-order contingency state enumeration.Consequently,the calculation of reliability indices is further accelerated by avoiding a large amount of repetitive OPF analyses during simulation process without affecting reliability index accuracy.The validity and applicability of our approach are verified using the IEEE 118-bus and IEEE 145-bus systems.Numerical results indicate that the proposed approach can improve computational efficiency without decreasing accuracy.

Reliability Assessment of Integrated Electricity and Natural Gas Transmission Systems in Presence of Power-to-gas and Combined Heat and Power Technologies

Assessing the reliability of integrated electricity and gas systems has become an important issue due to the strong dependence of these energy networks through the power-to-gas(P2G)and combined heat and power(CHP)technologies.The current work,initially,presents a detailed energy flow model for the integrated power and natural gas system in light of the P2G and CHP technologies.Considering the simultaneous load flow of networks,a contingency analysis procedure is proposed,and reliability is assessed through sequential Monte Carlo simulations.The current study examines the effect of independent and dependent operation of energy networks on the reliability of the systems.In particular,the effect of employing both P2G and CHP technologies on reliability criteria is evaluated.In addition,a series of sensitivity analysis are performed on the size and site of these technologies to investigate their effects on system reliability.The proposed method is implemented on an integrated IEEE 24-bus electrical power system and 20-node Belgian natural gas system.The simulation procedure certifies the proposed method for reliability assessment is practical and applicable.In addition,the results prove connection between energy networks through P2G and CHP technologies can improve reliability of networks if the site and size of technologies are properly determined.

Bayesian Reliability Assessment and Degradation Modeling with Calibrations and Random Failure Threshold

A degradation model with a random failure threshold is presented for the assessment of reliability by the Bayesian approach. This model is different from others in that the degradation process is proceeding under pre-specified periodical calibrations. And here a random threshold distribution instead of a constant threshold which is difficult to determine in practice is used. The system reliability is defined as the probability that the degradation signals do not exceed the random threshold. Based on the posterior distribution estimates of degradation performance, two models for Bayesian reliability assessments are presented in terms of the degradation performance and the distribution of random failure threshold. The methods proposed in this paper are very useful and practical for multi-stage system with uncertain failure threshold. This study perfects the degradation modeling approaches and plays an important role in the remaining useful life estimation and maintenance decision making.

Reliability Assessment of a Cyber Physical Microgrid System in Island Mode

As cyber physical systems,microgrids(MGs),with distributed generations and energy management systems,can improve the reliability of power supply for customers in MGs.To quantify the reliability of isolated MGs,a cyber-physical assessment model is proposed.In this model,the circuit breakers and distributed energy resources are treated as the coupling elements between the cyber system and physical system,where the circuit breakers are uniquely modelled by using the Markov process theory based on the indirect interdependencies between cyber physical elements.For the cyber system,the reliability model of communication networks is formulated based on the link connectivity evaluation method.For the physical system,a system state generating method is presented to account for the optimal operation strategy,which considers the influence of the optimization strategy on the failure consequence analysis.With the proposed cyber and physical reliability models,the sequential Monte Carlo(SMC)simulation method is adopted to assess the reliability of islanded MGs.Simulations are carried out on a test system,and results verify the feasibility and effectiveness of proposed assessment method.Furthermore,one application of the proposed method is on the parameter setting of the cyber system,in terms of enhancing MGs reliability.

SYSTEM SIMULATION AND RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT OF CHINESE CARBON SEQUESTRATION MARKET

This study builds a simulation of Chinese carbon sequestration market(CSM) based on the Swarm platform and complex adaptive system(CAS) theory.The simulation results represent that the total assets and profits of the carbon sequestration project(CSP) buyer and seller are steadily on the increase in the carbon trading maxket.The market regulatory efficiency is determined by the market investment and the improvement of regulation policy.Furthermore,the real sample simulation of Sichuan Daduhe Forest CSP demonstrates that the profit of CSP traded in the CSM is higher than the profit from the transactions of outside exchange.It implies that establishing CSM is an effective way to improve the CSP business for investors and a positive action to response to global warming as well.Finally,this study applies an Analytic Hierarchy Process-Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation(AHPFCE) approach to evaluate the reliability of CSM simulation.It concludes that the CSM simulation is "more creditable",which indicates that the CSM simulation results can be used as a proxy to observe the market uncertainties.

New concept and procedure for reliability assessment of an IEC 61850 based substation and distribution automation considering secondary device faults

Smart grid is a power grid consists of extensive monitoring systems which deal with the monitoring of attributes such as current, voltage, power, and energy at distribution transformers, substations transformers, distri- bution switching devices and smart meters. Smart grid with advanced communication technologies can be used for several purposes such as efficiency and reliability improvement. IEC 61850 is the core standard in the smart grid domain for distribution and substation automa- tion. This paper introduces a vision of modem substation and distribution systems using the IEC 61850. Network operators mainly assume that the modem substation and distribution systems based on the IEC 61850 are reliable for a long-time of operation. However, similar to any other systems, the implemented IEC 61850 might fail because of the operational failures or aging failures. This paper proposes a novel method for reliability evaluation of modem substation and distribution systems. A typical IEC 61850 based distribution and substation system is devel- oped and analyzed using the proposed method. The fault tree analysis （FTA） is used to quantify the reliability of the system. The technique is implemented and demonstrated on the Roy Billinton test system （RBTS）. The analysis is further extended on a 400/63 kV substation with a breaker- and-a-half configuration. In addition, the technique proves to be robust under different operations. The results verify the feasibility and applicability of the proposed method.

Impact Increment Based Hybrid Reliability Assessment Method for Transmission Systems

This paper proposes an impact-increment-based hybrid(IIHybrid)reliability assessment approach for power transmission systems.The proposed approach integrates the advantages of the impact-increment-based state enumeration method(IISE)and impact-increment-based Monte Carlo simulation(IIMC)to improve computational efficiency and accuracy.The IISE can efficiently assess the impacts of low-order contingencies.The accuracy is,however,sacrificed as highorder contingencies are usually neglected.The IIMC is more suitable for large-scale contingency spaces compared with IISE,although the calculation process is time-consuming.In this paper,the proposed IIHybrid takes advantage of its strengths while avoiding its shortcomings.The IISE and the IIMC are applied to lower and higher contingency spaces respectively.The high-order contingencies elimination technique proposed in our previous studies is still applicable to the IIHybrid.In addition,efficiency can be controlled by modifying the preset parameters to adapt to various scenarios.Case studies are performed on the IEEE 118-bus test system and PEGASE System.The results show that the proposed approach is more efficient and practicable than traditional methods.

Imprecise Reliability Assessment for Heavy Numerical Control Machine Tools Against Small Sample Size Problem

Small sample size problem is one of the main problems that heavy numerical control(NC) machine tools encounter in their reliability assessment. In order to deal with the small sample size problem, many indirect reliability data such as reliability data of similar products, expert opinion, and engineers' experience are used in reliability assessment. However, the existing mathematical theories cannot simultaneously process the above reliability data of multiple types, and thus imprecise probability theory is introduced. Imprecise probability theory can simultaneously process multiple reliability data by quantifying multiple uncertainties(stochastic uncertainty,fuzzy uncertainty, epistemic uncertainty, etc.) together. Although imprecise probability theory has so many advantages, the existing natural extension models are complex and the computation result is imprecise. Therefore,they need some improvement for the better application of reliability engineering. This paper proposes an improved imprecise reliability assessment method by introducing empirical probability distributions to natural extension model, and the improved natural extension model is applied to the reliability assessment of heavy NC machine tool spindle to illustrate its effectiveness.

Data learning and expert judgment in a Bayesian belief network for aiding human reliability assessment in offshore decommissioning risk assessment

Decommissioning of offshore facilities involve changing risk profiles at different decommissioning phases.Bayesian Belief Networks(BBN)are used as part of the proposed risk assessment method to capture the multiple interactions of a decommissioning activity.The BBN is structured from the data learning of an accident database and a modification of the BBN nodes to incorporate human reliability and barrier performance modelling.The analysis covers one case study of one area of decommissioning operations by extrapolating well workover data to well plugging and abandonment.Initial analysis from well workover data,of a 5-node BBN provided insights on two different levels of severity of an accident,the’Accident’and’Incident’level,and on its respective profiles of the initiating events and the investigation-reported human causes.The initial results demonstrate that the data learnt from the database can be used to structure the BBN,give insights on how human reliability pertaining to well activities can be modelled,and that the relative frequencies from the count analysis can act as initial data input for the proposed nodes.It is also proposed that the integrated treatment of various sources of information(database and expert judgement)through a BBN model can support the risk assessment of a dynamic situation such as offshore decommissioning.