System Reliability Analysis Method Based on T-S FTA and HE-BN

For high-reliability systems in military,aerospace,and railway fields,the challenges of reliability analysis lie in dealing with unclear failure mechanisms,complex fault relationships,lack of fault data,and uncertainty of fault states.To overcome these problems,this paper proposes a reliability analysismethod based on T-S fault tree analysis(T-S FTA)and Hyper-ellipsoidal Bayesian network(HE-BN).The method describes the connection between the various systemfault events by T-S fuzzy gates and translates them into a Bayesian network(BN)model.Combining the advantages of T-S fault tree modeling with the advantages of Bayesian network computation,a reliability modeling method is proposed that can fully reflect the fault characteristics of complex systems.Experts describe the degree of failure of the event in the form of interval numbers.The knowledge and experience of experts are fused with the D-S evidence theory to obtain the initial failure probability interval of the BN root node.Then,the Hyper-ellipsoidal model(HM)constrains the initial failure probability interval and constructs a HE-BN for the system.A reliability analysismethod is proposed to solve the problem of insufficient failure data and uncertainty in the degree of failure.The failure probability of the system is further calculated and the key components that affect the system’s reliability are identified.The proposedmethod accounts for the uncertainty and incompleteness of the failure data in complex multi-state systems and establishes an easily computable reliability model that fully reflects the characteristics of complex faults and accurately identifies system weaknesses.The feasibility and accuracy of the method are further verified by conducting case studies.

Hybrid response surface method for system reliability analysis of pilereinforced slopes

To consider the complex soil-structure interaction in a pile-slope system,it is necessary to analyze the performance of pile-slope systems based on a three-dimensional(3D)numerical model.Reliability analysis of a pile-slope system based on 3D numerical modeling is very challenging because it is computationally expensive and the performance function of the pile failure mode is only defined in the safe domain of soil stability.In this paper,an efficient hybrid response surface method is suggested to study the system reliability of pile-reinforced slopes,where the support vector machine and the Kriging model are used to approximate performance functions of soil failure and pile failure,respectively.The versatility of the suggested method is illustrated in detail with an example.For the example examined in this paper,it is found that the pile failure can significantly contribute to system failure,and the reinforcement ratio can effectively reduce the probability of pile failure.There exists a critical reinforcement ratio beyond which the system failure probability is not sensitive to the reinforcement ratio.The pile spacing affects both the probabilities of soil failure and pile failure of the pile-reinforced slope.There exists an optimal location and an optimal length for the stabilizing piles.

Reliability-BasedModel for Incomplete Preventive ReplacementMaintenance of Photovoltaic Power Systems

At present,the operation and maintenance of photovoltaic power generation systems mainly comprise regular maintenance,breakdown maintenance,and condition-based maintenance,which is very likely to lead to over-or under-repair of equipment.Therefore,a preventive maintenance and replacement strategy for PV power generation systems based on reliability as a constraint is proposed.First,a hybrid failure function with a decreasing service age factor and an increasing failure rate factor is introduced to describe the deterioration of PV power generation equipment,and the equipment is replaced when its reliability drops to the replacement threshold in the last cycle.Then,based on the reliability as a constraint,the average maintenance cost and availability of the equipment are considered,and the non-periodic incomplete maintenance model of the PV power generation system is established to obtain the optimal number of repairs,each maintenance cycle and the replacement cycle of the PV power generation system components.Next,the inverter of a PV power plant is used as a research object.The model in this paper is compared and analyzed with the equal cycle maintenance model without considering reliability and the maintenance model without considering the equipment replacement threshold,Through model comparison,when the optimal maintenance strategy is(0.80,4),the average maintenance cost of this paper’s model are decreased by 20.3%and 5.54%and the availability is increased by 0.2395% and 0.0337%,respectively,compared with the equal-cycle maintenance model without considering the reliability constraint and the maintenance model without considering the equipment replacement threshold.Therefore,this maintenance model can ensure the high reliability of PV plant operation while increasing the equipment availability to improve the system economy.

Evaluation of the Reliability of a System: Approach by Monte Carlo Simulation and Application

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the reliability of a system in its different states (absence of failures, partial failure and total failure) and to propose actions to improve this reliability by an approach based on Monte Carlo simulation. It consists of a probabilistic evaluation based on Markov Chains. In order to achieve this goal, the functionalities of Markov Chains and Monte Carlo simulation steps are deployed. The application is made on a production system. .

Mission reliability modeling and evaluation for reconfigurable unmanned weapon system-of-systems based on effective operation loop

The concept of unmanned weapon system-of-systems(UWSoS)involves a collection of various unmanned systems to achieve or accomplish a specific goal or mission.The mission reliability of UWSoS is represented by its ability to finish a required mission above the baselines of a given mission.However,issues with heterogeneity,cooperation between systems,and the emergence of UWSoS cannot be effectively solved by traditional system reliability methods.This study proposes an effective operation-loop-based mission reliability evaluation method for UWSoS by analyzing dynamic reconfiguration.First,we present a new connotation of an effective operation loop by considering the allocation of operational entities and physical resource constraints.Then,we propose an effective operationloop-based mission reliability model for a heterogeneous UWSoS according to the mission baseline.Moreover,a mission reliability evaluation algorithm is proposed under random external shocks and topology reconfiguration,revealing the evolution law of the effective operation loop and mission reliability.Finally,a typical 60-unmanned-aerial-vehicle-swarm is taken as an example to demonstrate the proposed models and methods.The mission reliability is achieved by considering external shocks,which can serve as a reference for evaluating and improving the effectiveness of UWSoS.

Efficient slope reliability and sensitivity analysis using quantile-based first-order second-moment method

This paper introduces a novel approach for parameter sensitivity evaluation and efficient slope reliability analysis based on quantile-based first-order second-moment method(QFOSM).The core principles of the QFOSM are elucidated geometrically from the perspective of expanding ellipsoids.Based on this geometric interpretation,the QFOSM is further extended to estimate sensitivity indices and assess the significance of various uncertain parameters involved in the slope system.The proposed method has the advantage of computational simplicity,akin to the conventional first-order second-moment method(FOSM),while providing estimation accuracy close to that of the first-order reliability method(FORM).Its performance is demonstrated with a numerical example and three slope examples.The results show that the proposed method can efficiently estimate the slope reliability and simultaneously evaluate the sensitivity of the uncertain parameters.The proposed method does not involve complex optimization or iteration required by the FORM.It can provide a valuable complement to the existing approximate reliability analysis methods,offering rapid sensitivity evaluation and slope reliability analysis.

Ergonomic Reliability Assessment of VDT Systemfor Operation Design Based on Improved BPNN and HCR under Special Circumstances

Ergonomic reliability plays a significant role in the safe operation of devices.With the spread of infectious diseases around the world,in work environments with high loads and high infection rates,medical staff work in a state of high self-protection.The use of visual display terminal(VDT)for medical equipment has undergone fundamental changes,and the traditional medical equipment human-machine interface design needs to be improved.After the completion of design and development,a VDT design enters the experimental testing stage,which has significant limitations for simulating the work of medical staff in the high-load and high-infection environments.The testing cost is high,and subjects face harsh conditions;thus,an ergonomic reliability model that can predict the use of VDT in such special high-infection and high-load circumstances must be established.An ergonomic reliability model based on an improved backpropagation neural network(BPNN)and human cognition reliability(HCR)is proposed for predicting and evaluating operation flows according tomedical equipment VDTs.Firstly,a small data sample can be used to train BPNN to generate a network that can ensure suitable accuracy.To prevent the model from falling into local optimal solutions,the bat algorithm is introduced to improve the BPNN.Compared to a traditional BPNN,the superiority of the improved BPNN is clearly demonstrated.Secondly,the HCR method is used to analyze and highlight changes in the human factor reliability of VDTs for medical equipment in different time processes and operating processes according to BPNN prediction results,to provide a reference for selecting the optimalmethod.Finally,the validity and availability of the proposedmethod are verified through an eye tracker experiment and statistical analysis results.

A practical framework for performance-based reliability analysis of subway stations based on a faultestructure combined system

It is necessary to pay particular attention to the uncertainties that exist in an engineering problem to reduce the risk of seismic damage of infrastructures against natural hazards.Moreover,certain structural performance levels should be satisfied during strong earthquakes.However,these performance levels have been only well described for aboveground structures.This study investigates the main uncertainties involved in the performance-based seismic analysis of a multi-story subway station.More than 100 pulse-like and no pulse-like ground motions have been selected.In this regard,an effective framework is presented,based on a set of nonlinear static and dynamic analyses performed by OpenSees code.The probabilistic seismic demand models for computing the free-field shear strain of soil and racking ratio of structure are proposed.These models result in less variability compared with existing relations,and make it possible to evaluate a wider range of uncertainties through reliability analysis in Rtx software using the Monte Carlo sampling method.This work is performed for three different structural performance levels(denoted as PL1ePL3).It is demonstrated that the error terms related to the magnitude and location of earthquake excitations and also the corresponding attenuation relationships have been the most important parameters.Therefore,using a faultestructure model would be inevitable for the reliability analysis of subway stations.It is found that the higher performance level(i.e.PL3)has more sensitivity to random variables than the others.In this condition,the pulse-like ground motions have a major contribution to the vulnerability of subway stations.

Dynamic Reliability Evaluation and Life Prediction of Transmission System of Multi-Performance Degraded Wind Turbine

Wind power is a kind of important green energy.Thus,wind turbines have been widely utilized around the world.Wind turbines are composed of many important components.Among these components,the failure rate of the transmission system is relatively high in wind turbines.It is because the components are subjected to aerodynamic loads for a long time.In addition,its inertial load will result in fatigue fracture,wear and other problems.In this situation,wind turbines have to be repaired at a higher cost.Moreover,the traditional reliability methods are difficult to deal with the above challenges when performing the reliability analysis of the transmission system of wind turbines.To solve this problem,a stress-strength interference model based on performance degradation is introduced.Based on considering the strength degradation of each component,the improved Monte Carlomethod simulation based on the Back Propagation neural network is used to obtain the curve of system reliability over time.Finally,the Miner linear cumulative damage theory and the Carten-Dolan cumulative damage theory method are used to calculate the cumulative damage and fatigue life of the gear transmission system.

System Reliability Analysis for Truss Structures Based on Automatic Updated Model

Multiple failure modes tend to be identified in the reliability analysis of a redundant truss structure.This identification process involves updating the model for identifying the next potential failure members.Herein we intend to update the finite element model automatically in the identification process of failure modes and further perform the system reliability analysis efficiently.This study presents a framework that is implemented through the joint simulation of MATLAB and APDL and consists of three parts:reliability index of a single member,identification of dominant failure modes,and system-level reliability analysis for system reliability analysis of truss structures.Firstly,RSM(response surface method)combines with a constrained optimization model to calculate the reliability indices ofmembers.Then theβ-unzipping method is adopted to identify the dominant failuremodes,and the system function in MATLAB,as well as the EKILL command in APDL,is used to facilitate the automatic update of the finite element model and realize load-redistribution.Besides,the differential equivalence recursion algorithmis performed to approximate the reliability indices of failuremodes efficiently and accurately.Eventually,the PNET(probabilistic network evaluation technique)is used to calculate the joint failure probability as well as the system reliability index.Two illustrative examples demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed system reliability analysis framework through comparison with corresponding references.

Reliability Analysis of Satellite Turntable System under Multiple Operation Modes Based on Multi-Valued Decision Diagrams

As a payload support system deployed on satellites,the turntable system is often switched among different working modes during the on-orbit operation,which can experience great state changes.In each mode,the missions to be completed are different,consecutive and non-over-lapping,from which the turntable system can be considered to be a phased-mission system(PMS).Reliability analysis for PMS has been widely studied.However,the system mode cycle characteristic has not been taken into account before.In this paper,reliability analysis method of the satellite turntable system is proposed considering its multiple operation modes and mode cycle characteristic.Firstly,the multi-valued decision diagrams(MDD)manipulation rules between two adjacent mission cycles are proposed.On this basis,MDD models for the turntable system in different states are established and the reliability is calculated using the continuous time Markov chains(CTMC)method.Finally,the comparative study is carried out to show the effectiveness of our proposed method.

Availability Capacity Evaluation and Reliability Assessment of Integrated Systems Using Metaheuristic Algorithm

Contemporarily,the development of distributed generations(DGs)technologies is fetching more,and their deployment in power systems is becom-ing broad and diverse.Consequently,several glitches are found in the recent studies due to the inappropriate/inadequate penetrations.This work aims to improve the reliable operation of the power system employing reliability indices using a metaheuristic-based algorithm before and after DGs penetration with feeder system.The assessment procedure is carried out using MATLAB software and Mod-ified Salp Swarm Algorithm(MSSA)that helps assess the Reliability indices of the proposed integrated IEEE RTS79 system for seven different configurations.This algorithm modifies two control parameters of the actual SSA algorithm and offers a perfect balance between the exploration and exploitation.Further,the effectiveness of the proposed schemes is assessed using various reliability indices.Also,the available capacity of the extended system is computed for the best configuration of the considered system.The results confirm the level of reli-able operation of the extended DGs along with the standard RTS system.Speci-fically,the overall reliability of the system displays superior performance when the tie lines 1 and 2 of the DG connected with buses 9 and 10,respectively.The reliability indices of this case namely SAIFI,SAIDI,CAIDI,ASAI,AUSI,EUE,and AEUE shows enhancement about 12.5%,4.32%,7.28%,1.09%,4.53%,12.00%,and 0.19%,respectively.Also,a probability of available capacity at the low voltage bus side is accomplished a good scale about 212.07 times/year.

Modeling the Failure Rate of a Standby Multi-Component System and Improving Reliability

Evaluating the reliability of a system requires knowledge of the failure modes to which it is subjected. Complex topology systems generally require a high level of availability, which is a function of the arrangement of elements (components) in the system. To avoid serious failures for such complex systems, recourse can be had to the redundancy techniques available in the literature. These techniques help to improve system reliability, without affecting the reliability of system components. This paper is interested in the proposal of a model for evaluating the failure rate of a standby multi-components system and in improving the reliability of mechanical systems, arranged in a topology (series, parallel, or mixed).

Ultra Reliable Load-Aware Connection Management(LACM)Algorithm in WIA-FA Systems

The increasing demand for industrial automation and intelligence has put forward higher requirements for the reliability of industrial wireless communication technology.As an international standard based on 802.11,Wireless networks for Industrial Automation-Factory Automation(WIA-FA)greatly improves the reliability in factory automation scenarios by Time Division Multiple Access(TDMA).However,in ultra-dense WIA-FA networks with mobile users,the basic connection management mechanism is inefficient.Most of the handover and resource management algorithms are all based on frequency division multiplexing,not suitable for the TDMA in the WIA-FA network.Therefore,we propose Load-aware Connection Management(LACM)algorithm to adjust the linkage and balance the load of access devices to avoid blocking and improve the reliability of the system.And then we simulate the algorithm to find the optimal settings of the parameters.After comparing with other existing algorithms,the result of the simulation proves that LACM is more efficient in reliability and maintains high reliability of more than 99.8%even in the ultra-dense moving scenario with 1500 field devices.Besides,this algorithm ensures that only a few signaling exchanges are required to ensure load bal-ancing,which is no more than 5 times,and less than half of the best state-of-the-art algorithm.

Belief reliability:a scientific exploration of reliability engineering

This paper systematically introduces and reviews a scientific exploration of reliability called the belief reliability.Beginning with the origin of reliability engineering,the problems of present theories for reliability engineering are summarized as a query,a dilemma,and a puzzle.Then,through philosophical reflection,we introduce the theoretical solutions given by belief reliability theory,including scientific principles,basic equations,reliability science experiments,and mathematical measures.The basic methods and technologies of belief reliability,namely,belief reliability analysis,function-oriented belief reliability design,belief reliability evaluation,and several newly developed methods and technologies are sequentially elaborated and overviewed.Based on the above investigations,we summarize the significance of belief reliability theory and make some prospects about future research,aiming to promote the development of reliability science and engineering.

Reliability analysis of carbon fiber rod-reinforced umbilical cable under tension using an improved sampling method

The umbilical cable is a vital component of subsea production systems that provide power,chemical agents,control signals et al.,and its requirement for reliability is exceedingly high.However,as the umbilical cable is a composite structure comprising multiple functional units,the reliability analysis of such cables involves numerous parameters that can impact calculation efficiency.In this paper,the reliability analysis of a new kind of umbilical cable with carbon fiber rod under tension is analyzed.The global dynamic analytical model is first established to determine the maximum tension load,then the local analytical model of umbilical cable including each unit are constructed by finite element method(FEM).Based on the mechanical analytical model,the reliability of umbilical cable under tension load is studied using response surface method(RSM)and Monte Carlo method.During the calculation process,a new tangent plane sampling method to calculate the response surface function(RSF)is proposed in this paper,which could make sampling points faster come close to the RSF curve,and it is proved that the calculation efficiency increases about 33%comparing with traditional method.

A non-probabilistic reliability topology optimization method based on aggregation function and matrix multiplication considering buckling response constraints

A non-probabilistic reliability topology optimization method is proposed based on the aggregation function and matrix multiplication.The expression of the geometric stiffness matrix is derived,the finite element linear buckling analysis is conducted,and the sensitivity solution of the linear buckling factor is achieved.For a specific problem in linear buckling topology optimization,a Heaviside projection function based on the exponential smooth growth is developed to eliminate the gray cells.The aggregation function method is used to consider the high-order eigenvalues,so as to obtain continuous sensitivity information and refined structural design.With cyclic matrix programming,a fast topology optimization method that can be used to efficiently obtain the unit assembly and sensitivity solution is conducted.To maximize the buckling load,under the constraint of the given buckling load,two types of topological optimization columns are constructed.The variable density method is used to achieve the topology optimization solution along with the moving asymptote optimization algorithm.The vertex method and the matching point method are used to carry out an uncertainty propagation analysis,and the non-probability reliability topology optimization method considering buckling responses is developed based on the transformation of non-probability reliability indices based on the characteristic distance.Finally,the differences in the structural topology optimization under different reliability degrees are illustrated by examples.

A Planning Method for Operational Test of UAV Swarm Based on Mission Reliability

The unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)swarm plays an increasingly important role in the modern battlefield,and the UAV swarm operational test is a vital means to validate the combat effectiveness of the UAV swarm.Due to the high cost and long duration of operational tests,it is essential to plan the test in advance.To solve the problem of planning UAV swarm operational test,this study considers the multi-stage feature of a UAV swarm mission,composed of launch,flight and combat stages,and proposes a method to find test plans that can maximize mission reliability.Therefore,a multi-stage mission reliability model for a UAV swarm is proposed to ensure successful implementation of the mission.A multi-objective integer optimization method that considers both mission reliability and cost is then formulated to obtain the optimal test plans.This study first constructs a mission reliability model for the UAV swarm in the combat stage.Then,the launch stage and flight stage are integrated to develop a complete PMS(Phased Mission Systems)reliability model.Finally,the Binary Decision Diagrams(BDD)and Multi Objective Quantum Particle Swarm Optimization(MOQPSO)methods are proposed to solve the model.The optimal plans considering both reliability and cost are obtained.The proposed model supports the planning of UAV swarm operational tests and represents a meaningful exploration of UAV swarm test planning.

A review of extreme condition effects on solder joint reliability:Understanding failure mechanisms

Solder joint,crucial component in electronic systems,face significant challenges when exposed to extreme conditions during applications.The solder joint reliability involving microstructure and mechanical properties will be affected by extreme conditions.Understanding the behaviour of solder joints under extreme conditions is vital to determine the durability and reliability of solder joint.This review paper aims to comprehensively explore the underlying failure mechanism affecting solder joint reliability under extreme conditions.This study covers an in-depth analysis of effect extreme temperature,mechanical stress,and radiation conditions towards solder joint.Impact of each condition to the microstructure including solder matrix and intermetallic compound layer,and mechanical properties such as fatigue,shear strength,creep,and hardness was thoroughly discussed.The failure mechanisms were illustrated in graphical diagrams to ensure clarity and understanding.Furthermore,the paper highlighted mitigation strategies that enhancing solder joint reliability under challenging operating conditions.The findings offer valuable guidance for researchers,engineers,and practitioners involved in electronics,engineering,and related fields,fostering advancements in solder joint reliability and performance.

On the relationship between imprint and reliability in Hf_(0.5)Zr_(0.5)O_(2) based ferroelectric random access memory

The detrimental effect of imprint,which can cause misreading problem,has hindered the application of ferroelectric HfO_(2).In this work,we present results of a comprehensive reliability evaluation of Hf_(0.5)Zr_(0.5)O_(2)-based ferroelectric random access memory.The influence of imprint on the retention and endurance is demonstrated.Furthermore,a solution in circuity is pro-posed to effectively solve the misreading problem caused by imprint.