金融稳定需要防范和化解金融市场之间的风险传染。与以往文献只是探究两个市场的风险传染不同,本文利用高维VAR for VaR模型将中国的汇市、债市、大宗商品、金融期货和股市等五个金融市场纳入统一框架,分析这5个金融市场在不同状态的风...金融稳定需要防范和化解金融市场之间的风险传染。与以往文献只是探究两个市场的风险传染不同,本文利用高维VAR for VaR模型将中国的汇市、债市、大宗商品、金融期货和股市等五个金融市场纳入统一框架,分析这5个金融市场在不同状态的风险溢出效应,这有助于捕捉冲击在不同金融市场之间传播而产生的间接影响。Wald检验和后验分析表明5个市场间只在危机或泡沫状态时存在明显的风险溢出效应。同时,本文利用压力测试发现单个市场的短期冲击影响会被其他金融市场如股市消化吸收,但4个金融市场都处于正常状态会明显降低其他金融市场如股市的左尾风险。此外,本文提出利用单个金融市场在同一时点的不同分位数计算每个金融市场在同一时点的预期收益、波动风险和崩盘风险,这种做法的好处在于结果更加稳健以及减轻极端值的影响。在此基础上,本文进一步探究金融市场间是否能够对冲彼此的波动风险和崩盘风险。结果显示大宗商品市场和金融期货市场能够有效地对冲其他金融市场的波动风险和崩盘风险,但汇市、债市和股市无法对冲其他金融市场的波动风险和崩盘风险。展开更多
In combination with theoretical calculations,experiments were conducted to investigate the evolution behavior of nonmetallic inclusions(NMIs)during the manufacture of large-scale heat-resistant steel ingots using 9CrM...In combination with theoretical calculations,experiments were conducted to investigate the evolution behavior of nonmetallic inclusions(NMIs)during the manufacture of large-scale heat-resistant steel ingots using 9CrMoCoB heat-resistant steel and CaF_(2)–CaO–Al_(2)O_(3)–SiO_(2)–B_(2)O_(3)electroslag remelting(ESR)-type slag in an 80-t industrial ESR furnace.The main types of NMI in the consumable electrode comprised pure alumina,a multiphase oxide consisting of an Al_(2)O_(3)core and liquid CaO–Al_(2)O_(3)–SiO_(2)–MnO shell,and M_(23)C_(6)carbides with an MnS core.The Al_(2)O_(3)and MnS inclusions had higher precipitation temperatures than the M_(23)C_(6)-type carbide under equilibrium and nonequilibrium solidification processes.Therefore,inclusions can act as nucleation sites for carbide layer precipitation.The ESR process completely removed the liquid CaO–Al_(2)O_(3)–SiO_(2)–MnO oxide and MnS inclusion with a carbide shell,and only the Al_(2)O_(3)inclusions and Al_(2)O_(3)core with a carbide shell occupied the remelted ingot.The M_(23)C_(6)-type carbides in steel were determined as Cr_(23)C_(6)based on the analysis of transmission electron microscopy results.The substitution of Cr with W,Fe,or/and Mo in the Cr_(23)C_(6)lattice caused slight changes in the lattice parameter of the Cr_(23)C_(6)carbide.Therefore,Cr_(21.34)Fe_(1.66)C_(6),(Cr_(19)W_(4)C_(6),Cr_(18.4)Mo_(4.6)C_(6),and Cr_(16)Fe_(5)Mo_(2)C_(6)can match the fraction pattern of Cr_(23)C_(6)carbide.The Al_(2)O_(3)inclusions in the remelted ingot formed due to the reduction of CaO,SiO_(2),and MnO components in the liquid inclusion.The increased Al content in liquid steel or the higher supersaturation degree of Al_(2)O_(3)precipitation in the remelted ingot than that in the electrode can be attributed to the evaporation of CaF_(2)and the increase in CaO content in the ESR-type slag.展开更多
This study analyzed the impact of land-based contaminants and tertiary industrial structure on economic development in the selected Bohai Bay area,China.Based on panel data spanning 2011-2020,a vector autoregressive(V...This study analyzed the impact of land-based contaminants and tertiary industrial structure on economic development in the selected Bohai Bay area,China.Based on panel data spanning 2011-2020,a vector autoregressive(VAR)model is used to analyze and forecast the short-run and long-run relationships between three industrial structures,pollutant discharge,and economic development.The results showed that the environmental index had a long-term cointegration relationship with the industrial structure economic index.Per capital chemical oxygen demand(PCOD)and per capita ammonia nitrogen(PNH_(3)N)had a positive impact on delta per capita GDP(dPGDP),while per capita solid waste(PSW),the secondary industry rate(SIR)and delta tertiary industry(dTIR)had a negative impact on dPGDP.The VAR model under this coupling system had stability and credibility.The impulse response results showed that the short-term effect of the coupling system on dPGDP was basically consistent with the Granger causality test results.In addition,variance decomposition was used in this study to predict the long-term impact of the coupling system in the next ten periods(i.e.,ten years).It was found that dTIR had a great impact on dPGDP,with a contribution rate as high as 74.35%in the tenth period,followed by the contribution rate of PCOD up to 3.94%,while the long-term contribution rates of PSW,SIR and PNH3N were all less than 1%.The results show that the government should support the development of the tertiary industry to maintain the vitality of economic development and prevent environmental deterioration.展开更多
文摘金融稳定需要防范和化解金融市场之间的风险传染。与以往文献只是探究两个市场的风险传染不同,本文利用高维VAR for VaR模型将中国的汇市、债市、大宗商品、金融期货和股市等五个金融市场纳入统一框架,分析这5个金融市场在不同状态的风险溢出效应,这有助于捕捉冲击在不同金融市场之间传播而产生的间接影响。Wald检验和后验分析表明5个市场间只在危机或泡沫状态时存在明显的风险溢出效应。同时,本文利用压力测试发现单个市场的短期冲击影响会被其他金融市场如股市消化吸收,但4个金融市场都处于正常状态会明显降低其他金融市场如股市的左尾风险。此外,本文提出利用单个金融市场在同一时点的不同分位数计算每个金融市场在同一时点的预期收益、波动风险和崩盘风险,这种做法的好处在于结果更加稳健以及减轻极端值的影响。在此基础上,本文进一步探究金融市场间是否能够对冲彼此的波动风险和崩盘风险。结果显示大宗商品市场和金融期货市场能够有效地对冲其他金融市场的波动风险和崩盘风险,但汇市、债市和股市无法对冲其他金融市场的波动风险和崩盘风险。
基金the Korea Evaluation Institute of Industrial Technology(KEIT,No.20009956)the Korea Institute for Advancement of Technology(KIAT,No.P0023676,HRD Program for Industrial Innovation)+1 种基金funded by the Ministry of Trade,Industry and Energy(MOTIE),Koreathe Swedish Foundation for International Cooperation in Research and Higher Education(STINT)for supporting the collaboration between KTH(Sweden)and Hanyang University(Korea)。
文摘In combination with theoretical calculations,experiments were conducted to investigate the evolution behavior of nonmetallic inclusions(NMIs)during the manufacture of large-scale heat-resistant steel ingots using 9CrMoCoB heat-resistant steel and CaF_(2)–CaO–Al_(2)O_(3)–SiO_(2)–B_(2)O_(3)electroslag remelting(ESR)-type slag in an 80-t industrial ESR furnace.The main types of NMI in the consumable electrode comprised pure alumina,a multiphase oxide consisting of an Al_(2)O_(3)core and liquid CaO–Al_(2)O_(3)–SiO_(2)–MnO shell,and M_(23)C_(6)carbides with an MnS core.The Al_(2)O_(3)and MnS inclusions had higher precipitation temperatures than the M_(23)C_(6)-type carbide under equilibrium and nonequilibrium solidification processes.Therefore,inclusions can act as nucleation sites for carbide layer precipitation.The ESR process completely removed the liquid CaO–Al_(2)O_(3)–SiO_(2)–MnO oxide and MnS inclusion with a carbide shell,and only the Al_(2)O_(3)inclusions and Al_(2)O_(3)core with a carbide shell occupied the remelted ingot.The M_(23)C_(6)-type carbides in steel were determined as Cr_(23)C_(6)based on the analysis of transmission electron microscopy results.The substitution of Cr with W,Fe,or/and Mo in the Cr_(23)C_(6)lattice caused slight changes in the lattice parameter of the Cr_(23)C_(6)carbide.Therefore,Cr_(21.34)Fe_(1.66)C_(6),(Cr_(19)W_(4)C_(6),Cr_(18.4)Mo_(4.6)C_(6),and Cr_(16)Fe_(5)Mo_(2)C_(6)can match the fraction pattern of Cr_(23)C_(6)carbide.The Al_(2)O_(3)inclusions in the remelted ingot formed due to the reduction of CaO,SiO_(2),and MnO components in the liquid inclusion.The increased Al content in liquid steel or the higher supersaturation degree of Al_(2)O_(3)precipitation in the remelted ingot than that in the electrode can be attributed to the evaporation of CaF_(2)and the increase in CaO content in the ESR-type slag.
基金supported by the research funds for Coupling Research on Industrial Upgrade and Environmental Management in the Bohai Rim-Technique,methodology,and Environmental Economic Policies(No.42076221).
文摘This study analyzed the impact of land-based contaminants and tertiary industrial structure on economic development in the selected Bohai Bay area,China.Based on panel data spanning 2011-2020,a vector autoregressive(VAR)model is used to analyze and forecast the short-run and long-run relationships between three industrial structures,pollutant discharge,and economic development.The results showed that the environmental index had a long-term cointegration relationship with the industrial structure economic index.Per capital chemical oxygen demand(PCOD)and per capita ammonia nitrogen(PNH_(3)N)had a positive impact on delta per capita GDP(dPGDP),while per capita solid waste(PSW),the secondary industry rate(SIR)and delta tertiary industry(dTIR)had a negative impact on dPGDP.The VAR model under this coupling system had stability and credibility.The impulse response results showed that the short-term effect of the coupling system on dPGDP was basically consistent with the Granger causality test results.In addition,variance decomposition was used in this study to predict the long-term impact of the coupling system in the next ten periods(i.e.,ten years).It was found that dTIR had a great impact on dPGDP,with a contribution rate as high as 74.35%in the tenth period,followed by the contribution rate of PCOD up to 3.94%,while the long-term contribution rates of PSW,SIR and PNH3N were all less than 1%.The results show that the government should support the development of the tertiary industry to maintain the vitality of economic development and prevent environmental deterioration.