Optimal Trading Decision-Making of Power Supply Chain under Renewable Portfolio Standards

Under the background of implementing renewable portfolio standards and the ever-improving tradable green certificate scheme,the increasingly environmentally-friendly preference of power users is leading to changes in electricity demand,which,in turn,is driving changes in the decision-making behaviors of various actors in the power supply chain.Based on this,with the goal of pursuing maximum profit,consumer-power-demand functions have been introduced with some consideration of the factors of consumer preference to establish an optimal profit model for each trading subject in non-cooperative states of the power supply chain,under the constraints of meeting renewable energy portfolio standards.Here,the optimal strategy of each trading subject is presented by adopting the reverse induction method.Furthermore,examples are used to analyze factors such as the influence of environmental protection preferences,quota ratios,price substitutions,and market demand as well as the optimal profit of each trading subject in view of providing a reference for the decision-making in the power supply chain trading subjects.

Optimal Decision-Making of Trans-Provincial Electricity Market Subjects with Risks under Renewable Portfolio Standards

The randomness and uncertainty of renewable energy generation are expected to significantly change the optimal decision-making of trans-provincial electricity market subjects.Therefore,it is beneficial to optimize the interests of each of these subjects,considering the unpredictable risks of renewable energy under the renewable portfolio standards(RPS)and researching their effects on the optimal decision-making of transprovincial electricity market multi-subjects.First,we develop a trans-provincial trading market mechanism for renewable energy and clarify the electricity supply and demand relation and the green certificates supply and demand relation of trans-provincial electricitymarketmulti-subjects.Then,under the RPS,we construct a multi-subject game model of the power supply chain that recognizes the risks,and adopt the reverse induction method to discuss the optimum risk-taking judgment of each subject in the trans-provincial electricity market.Finally,we useMATLAB to verify the viability and efficacy of the proposed gamemodel,and obtain a certain reference value for the optimal decision-making of trans-provincial electricity market subjects.In summary,we consider the uncertainty risks of renewable energy under RPS,study the effects of the green certificate price and risk aversion coefficient in the RPS mechanism on the optimal decisionmaking of trans-provincial electricity market subjects,and obtain the changing trends of two different power products and those of different electricity market subjects under the influence of the green certificate price and risk aversion coefficient,which have a certain reference value for studying the factors affecting the optimal decision-making of trans-provincial electricity market subjects.

Behaviours of Multi-Stakeholders under China’s Renewable Portfolio Standards:A Game Theory-Based Analysis

China has implemented both quantitative and policy incentives for renewable energy development since 2019 and is currently in the policy transition stage.The implementation of renewable portfolio standards(RPSs)is difficult due to the interests of multiple stakeholders,including power generation enterprises,power grid companies,power users,local governments,and the central government.Based on China’s RPS policy and power system reform documents,this research sorted out the core game decision problems of China’s renewable energy industry and established a conceptual game decision model of the renewable energy industry from the perspective of local governments,power generation enterprises and power grid companies.The results reveal that for local governments,the probability of meeting the earnings quota or punishments for not reaching quota completion are the major determinants for active participation in quota supervision.For power grid firms,the willingness to accept renewable electricity quotas depends on the additional cost of receiving renewable electricity and governmental incentives.It is reasonable,from the theoretical perspective,to implement the RPS policy on the power generation side.Electricity reform will help clarify the electricity price system and increase the transparency of the quota implementation process.Policy implications are suggested to achieve sustainable development of the renewable energy industry from price incentives and quantity delivery.

Thinking about Renewable Portfolio Standard to be Implemented in China

This paper briefs the basic objective of pursuing Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), puts forward a thinking about the scope and three modes of RPS-implementation in China and enumerates other possible measures, such as public bidding on concession, exemption from value-added tax, to promote wind power exploitation and development.

Influences of population characteristics and natural resource endowment on renewable portfolio standard schedule design

Renewable portfolio standard （RPS） schedule requires a specified percentage of renewable electricity development by a specified date, and therefore directly determines the pace of renewable electricity in one area. The article aims to explore the ways the natural resource endowment and population characteristic affect the adoption of a RPS schedule. We used logistic regression to analyze the data of RPS dynamic schedules of 29 states and Washington, D.C. in the United States. Results show that local renewable potential and the interaction performance between citizen ideology and the league of conversation voters scoreboard are main factors affecting the choice of an RPS schedule, and the effect of the interaction performance between citizen ideology and LCV scoreboard has a higher significance. The finding suggests that strategies for developing renewable energy should be based on resources rather than economical level, and nublic education for environmental protection should be emphasized.

可再生能源配额制(RPS)在中国应用探讨

我国政府近些年来一直积极探索以强制性手段保障可再生能源发展的有效机制。2003年可再生能源立法开始列入议程,这是我国可再生能源发展史上的一项重要举措。为可再生能源电力入网提供强制性保障机制是此次立法工作中初步设想的一项内容,引入可再生能源配额制(RPS)成为可供考虑的选择方案之一。如果引入,对该政策进行细致周密的设计和保证有效实施是至关重要的。文章重点探讨了RPS政策设计和管理中应注意的几个主要问题,包括确立适用范围和责任主体、制定可再生能源目标、确定有效的可再生能源种类、建立绿色证书制度、制定处罚措施等。期望本文能为我国建立可再生能源法律和政策体系提供相关信息。

RPS下园区能源互联网联盟区块链电力交易策略

能源互联网的快速发展及可再生能源的高比例接入对电力交易提出了新的要求.针对传统电力交易模式与能源互联网背景下市场化电力交易的不匹配,以园区能源互联网为对象,考虑可再生能源配额制(RPS)的影响,借鉴已有研究,提出了一种基于联盟区块链的园区能源互联网弱中心化电力交易模式,以分布式共享账本的方式应对传统电力交易过于中心化而不够灵活的不足,同时强化“弱中心化管理”,在一定程度上解决区块链去中心化带来的安全性不足的问题,进一步针对异质主体间的电价博弈协商,构建了上述交易模式下园区能源运营商与电力用户之间的讨价还价博弈模型,探讨交易主体收益均衡下的电价策略.最后以江苏省某示范园区能源互联网为例,验证交易模式及模型的有效性.

Optimization operation model of electricity market considering renewable energy accommodation and flexibility requirement

The renewable portfolio standard has been promoted in parallel with the reform of the electricity market,and the flexibility requirement of the power system has rapidly increased.To promote renewable energy consumption and improve power system flexibility,a bi-level optimal operation model of the electricity market is proposed.A probabilistic model of the flexibility requirement is established,considering the correlation between wind power,photovoltaic power,and load.A bi-level optimization model is established for the multi-markets;the upper and lower models represent the intra-provincial market and inter-provincial market models,respectively.To efficiently solve the model,it is transformed into a mixed-integer linear programming model using the Karush–Kuhn–Tucker condition and Lagrangian duality theory.The economy and flexibility of the model are verified using a provincial power grid as an example.

借鉴可再生能源投资组合标准(RPS)从市场化角度运营我国风力发电项目

风力发电是当今世界发展最快的能源项目。1998-2002年,风力发电装机容量以年均32%的速度高速增长,到2002年底世界累计风电机组装机容量超过31 000MW。到2003年底,中国累计安装风力发电机组1 042台,装机容量56万kW,远远低于其他国家水平。可再生能源投资组合标准(RPS)要求供电商必须拥有一个最低的可再生能源比例,EPS所依赖的是以竞争、效率和创新为根本的市场化运作方式,并要求风力发电企业以最低的成本运作。EPS符合我国刚刚通过的《可再生能源法》的宗旨,从运营机制上遏制化石燃料电厂污染物的排放。

Research on Legal System of China Renewable Energy Development Fund

This paper intends to analyze legal system of the Renewable Energy Development Fund based on the relevant provisions of Interim Procedures for the Administration of the Collection and Use of the Renewable Energy Development Fund in November 2011.This governmental fund system combines government macro-control with market regulation,using two hands of administration and market.However,the specific rules have system defects for the lack of support by Tradable Green Certificates.In order to improve and guarantee the development of renewable energy,the legal system of the Renewable Energy Development Fund needs further improving.

考虑可再生能源配额的风水火多能源电力系统年度调度模型

通过分析配额制的实施对购电策略的影响,建立考虑可再生能源配额的风水火多能源电力系统的年度调度模型。为减小计算负担,将月度的负荷与风电用数个典型场景及其占比来表示。提出能够自动选择最佳聚类数的改进k-means算法,并应用于典型场景生成过程中。将同一天的负荷与风电的历史数据曲线拼接为一条功率曲线,并基于改进k-means算法进行聚类,得到考虑负荷与风电时序相关性的典型场景。仿真结果表明:(1)所提典型场景生成方法对年度电量刻画的精度平均提高了12.7%,由其所生成典型场景的平均符合率提高了20.25%,所提方法具有更好的年度电量刻画效果和更高的平均场景符合率;(2)当绿色证书的价格高于风电与火电价格差值时,实施配额制后能够提高风电的消纳量,这对绿色证书价格的确定具有重要参考价值。

可再生能源配额制下风光储联合参与现货市场的交易决策

可再生能源配额制与现货市场建设的并行推进引起风电发电商、光伏发电商及储能电站(风光储)联合参与现货市场的交易决策发生变化。通过构建双层交易决策模型,对可再生能源配额制下风光储联合参与日前电能量及调频辅助服务市场的交易决策进行求解分析。模型上层以风光储总利润最大化为目标,同时考虑到风光储的内部调控,求解风光储最优交易策略;下层实现日前电能量和调频辅助服务市场的联合出清及绿色证书市场的清算。通过库恩-塔克(Karush-Kuhn-Tucker,KKT)条件、强对偶定理等方法将双层模型转换为混合整数线性规划问题进行求解。最后,通过算例验证了所提模型的有效性。结果表明:所提框架与模型能够优化风光储报量报价决策;可再生能源配额制的引入丰富了风光储的套利手段,风光储内部调控更加活跃;风光渗透率及配额制考核权重的变化对风光储的交易决策有重要影响。

How will tradable green certificates affect electricity trading markets under renewable portfolio standards?A China perspective

Renewable portfolio standards(RPS)are important guarantees to promote renewable energy(RE)consumption.The tradable green certificate(TGC)trading mechanism is a supporting mechanism of RPS,but the rate of TGC trading is low and there is a double-metering problem of RE consumption.With the introduction of new policies in China,we innovatively take the electricity-selling side as the subject of RE consumption responsibility and biomass-based electricity-generation(BEG)projects are considered to participate in TGC trading.To explore the interaction between the TGC market and the electricity market,this paper sets up a day-ahead spot market-trading structure combining both markets under RPS and establishes a market equilibrium model.The established model is solved and validated based on the particle swarm optimization algorithm and the profits of each market player under different influencing factors are analysed.The main conclusions are as follows.(i)The established market structure and model effectively solve the double-metering problem of RE consumption,making the TGC turnover rate reach 82.97%,greatly improving the market efficiency.(ii)Increased demand for TGC will increase demand for RE electricity.The participation of BEG projects in the TGC market can effectively improve the profit of biomass-based electricity producers(BEPs),reduce the burden of government financial subsidies and will not affect the consumption of wind-based electricity and photovoltaic-based electricity.This will help promote the rapid development of China’s RE,especially the BEG industry.(iii)Among the influencing factors,the increase in renewable-energy consumption responsibility weight and the decrease in electricity-generation cost can increase the profit of BEPs.The decline in TGC price and subsidy price will reduce the profit of BEPs.Finally,we put forward policy recommendations for China’s RPS and TGC trading mechanism.This study can provide a reference for the construction of China’s TGC market and electricity market and the development of RE.

可再生能源配额制下电力市场发电主体决策优化模型

随着可再生能源发电技术的进步以及人们环保意识的提高,政府机构开始利用市场手段和激励政策来促进可再生能源的消纳。基于绿色证书交易的可再生能源配额制是国内外普遍实施的政策。该文分析了配额制下电力市场各个发电交易主体的交易架构,并详细阐述了传统能源发电商与可再生能源发电商之间的电力和绿证供需关系;以电力市场各发电交易主体的收益最大化为目标,构建决策优化模型;结合NSGA-Ⅱ算法与灰色关联投影法,求解出均衡状态下各市场交易主体的最优交易电量和成交价格。算例重点分析了配额比例调整对电力成交价格,以及火力发电商和风电生产商的电力交易量、收益所产生的影响。通过仿真实验可知:配额比例的提高,能有效地增加风电生产商的发电量,并减少火力发电商的发电量;火力发电商与风电生产商博弈的同时,提高了电力与绿证市场的交易价格。

计及配额考核约束的发电商与大用户直购电博弈优化模型

在大用户直购电交易中,实施可再生能源配额制(renewable portfolio standard,RPS)会引发绿、火电商之间市场力不均等的竞争性售电,大用户也需应对负荷平衡与RPS考核的双重压力。为解决多发电商竞价与多大用户直购电交易的耦合优化决策问题和实现多主体共赢,建立了RPS驱动下绿、火电商竞价和大用户直购电的双层博弈优化模型。外层多发电商构成非合作博弈,各发电商通过博弈竞价以获得大用户更多的购电;内层多发电商和多大用户构成主从博弈,各发电商优化报价以满足售电利润最大,各大用户优化购电方案满足RPS考核并降低交易成本,实现供需双方共赢。采用KKT条件和不动点型迭代算法求解优化模型,仿真结果表明,RPS驱动和博弈竞价机制可提升绿电商竞争力,并降低了用户交易成本;但当RPS配比上升到一定程度时,大用户博弈能力削弱,交易成本反弹。该方法可为RPS下大用户直购电策略优化提供决策参考。

基于CGE模型的可再生能源绿证交易机制模拟及其经济影响

绿证交易机制是中国推动能源结构和电力结构转型升级的重要经济手段。该研究构建了具有电力部门细分特征的中国“能源-环境-经济”递推动态CGE模型,模拟了在可再生能源电力消纳保障机制框架下实行强制性绿证交易的经济影响。研究发现:强制性绿证交易能够替代电价补贴政策促进新能源电力行业的发展,但所能实现的碳减排效果有限,2030年相比基准情景最高仅可削减3.804%的全国碳排放总量。可再生能源电力消纳保障机制的约束目标将对绿证交易机制的运行效果产生直接影响,有针对性地提高风电消纳目标,可以有效促进风电行业发展,但存在扭曲绿证交易市场、降低资源配置效率的风险。提高新能源电力的消纳责任权重需要以牺牲一定的经济发展为代价,但整体来看模拟期内对经济造成的负面冲击幅度较小,各类政策情景下实际GDP下降率不超过0.8%。在保证绿证真实绿色属性的前提下,具有较高灵活性的代理模式绿证交易可以缓解风、光电力消纳目标对用电行业生产成本和GDP造成的压力,更具成本有效性。扩大绿证交易市场行业覆盖范围能够激发绿证交易市场活力,进一步缓解强制性新能源电力消纳目标对经济发展造成的不利影响,但所能实现的碳减排效果也相对较弱。基于上述结论,该研究提出相应政策建议:通过完善奖惩机制强化可再生能源电力消纳保障机制的强制约束效力,保障绿证交易机制的实施效果;在保证绿证真实绿色属性的前提下可以选择更为灵活的绿证交易模式;为风电消纳责任权重设定适当的下限,适当引导资金流向海上风电等新兴可再生电力行业,更有效地利用可再生能源资源。

可再生能源消纳责任权重制下风电多阶段消纳策略

风电等可再生能源的迅速发展使其成为了电网的重要组成部分,但其出力的不确定性为消纳带来了一定的困难。基于不同时间尺度下风电不确定性强弱,考虑不同电力市场间的联动,结合可再生能源消纳责任权重的实施背景,提出一种可再生能源消纳责任权重制下的风电多阶段消纳优化策略。中长期市场中,建立交割日前顺负荷电量出清模型,优先消纳风电稳定出力段;日前市场中,建立火电参与调峰的市场出清模型,最大化风电消纳;实时平衡市场中,建立单侧挂牌交易市场出清模型,完成过剩风电的实时消纳;绿证市场中,基于古诺模型模拟的绿证市场,最大化发电商收益。模型间通过风电出力的变化进行数据传递与交易控制。仿真结果表明,该多级消纳策略在促进风电消纳的同时降低了社会发电成本。

可再生能源配额制对我国电源结构的影响机理及效果研究

为有效调整中国电源结构,'十二五'期间,中国推出可再生能源配额制(renewable portfolio standard,RPS)。建立了可交易的绿色证书(tradable green certificates,TGC)市场和电力市场的局部均衡模型,分析了2个市场的交互作用机理,并利用系统动力学的方法对RPS在2012—2020年的实施情况进行模拟仿真和情景分析。研究结果表明:RPS通过市场机制和政府管制的共同作用,能够有效促进我国电源结构的调整。

考虑绿色证书交易的寡头电力市场均衡分析

可再生能源配额和可交易绿色证书制度作为一种基于市场机制的新能源扶持政策,得到越来越多的关注。该政策的引入会对电力批发市场的竞争产生重要影响,特别是绿色证书交易市场与电力批发交易市场之间存在复杂的相互影响关系。为了定量研究该影响关系,采用寡头竞争均衡理论,建立了一个考虑绿色证书交易市场和电力批发交易市场的两阶段联合均衡模型。在第1阶段,可再生能源发电商以供应函数模式参与证书市场竞争;在第2阶段,所有发电商以古诺模式参与批发市场竞争。该模型描述的均衡问题可以表示为一个具有均衡约束的均衡问题,可采用非线性互补方法来求解。最后,算例仿真重点研究不同配额要求下发电商在两个市场中的策略性行为及相互影响关系,表明在不同的配额要求下,可再生能源发电商会选择在不同市场中行使市场力,并导致电力批发市场价格与绿色证书市场价格上升。

促进我国可再生能源电力发展的政策框架研究

在对世界各国的可再生能源政策体制和实践进行综合分析的基础上,结合我国的国情、法律体系、可再生能源发展状况以及我国电力工业发展与电力体制改革进程,分析各种促进可再生能源产业政策在我国的可行性,提出中国可再生能源发展分3步走的规划方案,初步分析各步骤之间的合理衔接,为我国制定和完善可再生能源政策提供借鉴。