Implications of future climate change on crop and irrigation water requirements in a semi-arid river basin using CMIP6 GCMs

Agriculture faces risks due to increasing stress from climate change,particularly in semi-arid regions.Lack of understanding of crop water requirement(CWR)and irrigation water requirement(IWR)in a changing climate may result in crop failure and socioeconomic problems that can become detrimental to agriculture-based economies in emerging nations worldwide.Previous research in CWR and IWR has largely focused on large river basins and scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3(CMIP3)and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5)to account for the impacts of climate change on crops.Smaller basins,however,are more susceptible to regional climate change,with more significant impacts on crops.This study estimates CWRs and IWRs for five crops(sugarcane,wheat,cotton,sorghum,and soybean)in the Pravara River Basin(area of 6537 km^(2))of India using outputs from the most recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)General Circulation Models(GCMs)under Shared Socio-economic Pathway(SSP)245 and SSP585 scenarios.An increase in mean annual rainfall is projected under both scenarios in the 2050s and 2080s using ten selected CMIP6 GCMs.CWRs for all crops may decline in almost all of the CMIP6 GCMs in the 2050s and 2080s(with the exceptions of ACCESS-CM-2 and ACCESS-ESM-1.5)under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios.The availability of increasing soil moisture in the root zone due to increasing rainfall and a decrease in the projected maximum temperature may be responsible for this decline in CWR.Similarly,except for soybean and cotton,the projected IWRs for all other three crops under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios show a decrease or a small increase in the 2050s and 2080s in most CMIP6 GCMs.These findings are important for agricultural researchers and water resource managers to implement long-term crop planning techniques and to reduce the negative impacts of climate change and associated rainfall variability to avert crop failure and agricultural losses.

Planning of Cost Effective Water Harvesting in a Sub Basin of the Subarnarekha River in the State of West Bengal, India

Development and judicious management of available water resources play a key role for economic upliftment of any region. The agricultural pattern and social and demographic status in the upper basin of the Dulung Nala Stream （a tributary of the Subarnarekha River） in the western part of the State of West Bengal, India, reveals growing demand of water in the basin. The paper reports different management plans involving different types of water harvesting structures （and associated different types of water distribution systems） and different crop combinations and with benefit/cost ratios varying from 1.3 to 11.2 for the basin. The study points out that the judicious choice of both the water harvesting structure as well as the water distribution system is important. Proper planning of crop pattern is also to be emphasized for reaping maximum benefit. It further emphasizes that cost- benefit ratio cannot solely govern the choice of structure and that maximum utilization of catchmental water and thus enhancement of agricultural output （and also economic return from the catchment） i.e. quantum of benefit is also important. The water harvesting structures proposed in this study can be implemented in other semi-arid regions of India having almost the same climatic and socio-economic conditions.

Study on Rice Water Requirement of Liangping County under Climate Change Background

Under global climate change background,using daily meteorological data at Liangping ground meteorological station during 1961- 2012,we calculated crop water requirement and net irrigation water requirement during rice growth period in Liangping County,and analyzed its climate tendency rate. Results showed that climate tendency rate of crop water requirement during growth period of rice was only- 0. 007 mm /10 a; climate tendency rate of rainfall was- 0. 06 mm /10 a,but interannual change was relatively larger; climate tendency rate of net irrigation water requirement was 0. 011 mm /10 a. In the years when drought occurred,such as 2006 and 2011,both rice water requirement and net irrigation water requirement in Liangping were greatly higher than means over the years. Therefore,we should focus on drought pre-warning and risk management improving drought disaster prevention in Liangping in the future.

Risk assessment of agricultural green water security in Northeast China under climate change

Northeast China is an important base for grain production,dominated by rain-fed agriculture that relies on green water.However,in the context of global climate change,rising regional temperatures,changing precipitation patterns,and increasing drought frequency pose threats and challenges to agricultural green water security.This study provides a detailed assessment of the spatiotemporal characteristics and development trends of green water security risks in the Northeast region under the base period(2001-2020)and the future(2031-2090)climate change scenarios(SSP245 and SSP585)using the green water scarcity(GWS)index based on raster-scale crop spatial distribution data,Delta downscaling bias-corrected ERA5 data,and CMIP6 multimodal data.During the base period,the green water risk-free zone for dry crops is mainly distributed in the center and east of the Northeast region(72.4% of the total area),the low-risk zone is primarily located in the center(14.0%),and the medium-risk(8.3%)and high-risk(5.3%)zones are mostly in the west.Under SSP245 and SSP585 future climate change scenarios,the green water security risk shows an overall expansion from the west to the center and east,with the low-risk zone increasing to 21.6% and 23.8%,the medium-risk zone increasing to 16.0% and 17.9%,and the high-risk zone increasing to 6.9% and 6.8%,respectively.Considering dry crops with GWS greater than 0.1 as in need of irrigation,the irrigated area increases from 27.6%(base period)to 44.5%(SSP245)and 48.6%(SSP585),with corresponding increases in irrigation water requirement(IWR)of 4.64 and 5.92 billion m~3,respectively,which further exacerbates conflicts between supply and demand of agricultural water resources.In response to agricultural green water security risks,coping strategies such as evapotranspiration(ET)-based water resource management for dry crops and deficit irrigation are proposed.The results of this study can provide scientific basis and decision support for the development of Northeast irrigated agriculture and the construction planning of the national water network.

Irrigation water requirements of rice using Cropwat model in Northern Benin

Understanding crop water requirements(CWR)in semi-arid region is essential for better irrigation practices,scheduling and efficient use of water since the water supply through rainfall is limited.This paper estimated the crop reference and actual evapotranspiration(Eto and ETc)respectively and the irrigation water requirement of rice(Oryza sativa L.)in Benin’s sub-basin of Niger River(BSBNR)of west Africa,using CROPWAT model.The long recorded climatic data,crop and soil data from 1942 to 2012 were computed with the Cropwat model which is based on the United Nations’Food and Agriculture Organization(FAO)paper number 56(FAO56).The Penman-Monteith method was used to estimate ETo.Crop coefficients(Kc)from the phenomenological stages of rice were applied to adjust and estimate the actual evapotranspiration ETc through a water balance of the irrigation water requirements(IR).The results showed the BSBNR annual reference evapotranspiration(ETo)was estimated at 1967 mm.The lowest monthly value of ETo of 123 mm,was observed in August month,middle of the rainy season while the highest value 210 mm was observed in March within dry season.The crop evapotranspiration ETc and the crop irrigation requirements were estimated at 651 mm and 383 mm,respectively in rainy season and 920 mm and 1148 mm,respectively within a dry season.Irrigation projects of these seasons can then be scheduled for water use efficiency based on these findings.