Forest biological disasters(FBD) seriously impact energy flow and material cycling in forest ecosystems,while the underlying causes of FBD are complex. These disasters involve large areas and cause tremendous losses. ...Forest biological disasters(FBD) seriously impact energy flow and material cycling in forest ecosystems,while the underlying causes of FBD are complex. These disasters involve large areas and cause tremendous losses. As a result,the occurrence of FBDs in China( CFBD) threatens the country's ability to realize its strategic target of increasing both forested area(40 million ha) and forest volume(1.3 billion m^3) from 2005 to 2020. Collectively,China has officially named this effort to increase forest area and volume the "Two Increases" as national goals related to forestry. Based on Hurst index analysis from fractal theory,we analyzed the time series of the occurrence area and related data of FBDs from 1950 to 2007 to quantitatively determine the patterns of the macro occurrence of FBDs in China. Results indicates that,the time series of( CFBD) areas is fractal( self-affinity fractal dimension D = 1. 3548),the fluctuation of( CFBD) areas is positively correlated( auto-correlation coefficient C = 0. 2170),and the occurrence of the time series of( CFBD) is long-range dependent( Hurst index H =0. 6416),showing considerably strong trend of increases in FBDC area. Three different methods were further carried out on the original time series,and its two surrogate series generated by function surrogate in library t series,and function Surrogate Data in library in Wavelet software R,so as to analyze the reliability of Hurst indexes. The results showed that the Hurst indices calculated using different estimation methods were greater than 0. 5,ranging from 0. 64 to 0. 97,which indicated that the change of occurrence area data of FBDs was positively autocorrelated.The long-range dependence in forest biological disasters in China is obvious,and the spatial extent of FBDs tended to increase during this study period indicating this trend should be expected to persistent and worsen in the future.展开更多
Diabetes has become a concern in the developed and developing countries with its growing number of patients reported to the ministry of health records. This paper discusses the use of the Autoregressive Fractional Mov...Diabetes has become a concern in the developed and developing countries with its growing number of patients reported to the ministry of health records. This paper discusses the use of the Autoregressive Fractional Moving Average (ARFIMA) technique to modeling the diabetes patient’s attendance at Al-Baha hospitals using monthly time series data. The data used in the analysis of this paper are monthly readings of diabetes patients data covered the period January 2006-December 2016. The data were collected from the General Directorate of Health Affairs, Al-Baha region. The autoregressive fractional moving average approach was applied to the data through the model identification, estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting. Hurst test results and ACF confirmed that there is a long memory behavior in diabetic patient’s data. Also, the fractional difference to diabetes series data revealed that (<em>d</em> = 0.44). Moreover, unit root tests indicated that the fractional difference of diabetes series level is stationary. Furthermore, according to AIC and BIC of model selection criteria ARFIMA (1, 0.44, 0) model shown the smallest values, hence this model was chosen as an adequate represents the data. Also, a diagnostic check confirmed that ARFIMA was appropriate and highly recommended in modeling and forecasting this type of data.展开更多
How to reduce downtime and improve availability of the complex equipment is very important. Although the unscheduled downtime（USDT） issues of the equipment are very complex, the self-organized criticality（SOC） is ...How to reduce downtime and improve availability of the complex equipment is very important. Although the unscheduled downtime（USDT） issues of the equipment are very complex, the self-organized criticality（SOC） is the right theory to study complex systems evolution and opens up a new window to the investigation of disasters, such as the sudden failure of the equipment. Firstly,SOC theory and its validation method are introduced. Then an SOC validation method for USDT of the equipment is proposed based on the above theory. Case study is done on bottleneck equipment in a factory and corresponding data pre-process work is done. The rescaled-range（R/S） analysis method is used to calculate the Hurst exponent of USDT time-series data in order to determine the long-range correlation of USDT data on time scale;at the same time the spatial power-law characteristic of USDT time series data is studied. The result shows that the characteristics of SOC are revealed in USDT data of the equipment according to the criterion of SOC. In addition, based on the characteristics of SOC,the overall framework of the prediction method for major sudden failure of the equipment is proposed based on SOC.展开更多
基金Supported by the Project "Researches of Southern China’s Forestry Strategy"(2013-R17) and "Improvement of the Forest Resources Monitoring System of China"(2011-R03) Funded by the State Forestry Administration of China
文摘Forest biological disasters(FBD) seriously impact energy flow and material cycling in forest ecosystems,while the underlying causes of FBD are complex. These disasters involve large areas and cause tremendous losses. As a result,the occurrence of FBDs in China( CFBD) threatens the country's ability to realize its strategic target of increasing both forested area(40 million ha) and forest volume(1.3 billion m^3) from 2005 to 2020. Collectively,China has officially named this effort to increase forest area and volume the "Two Increases" as national goals related to forestry. Based on Hurst index analysis from fractal theory,we analyzed the time series of the occurrence area and related data of FBDs from 1950 to 2007 to quantitatively determine the patterns of the macro occurrence of FBDs in China. Results indicates that,the time series of( CFBD) areas is fractal( self-affinity fractal dimension D = 1. 3548),the fluctuation of( CFBD) areas is positively correlated( auto-correlation coefficient C = 0. 2170),and the occurrence of the time series of( CFBD) is long-range dependent( Hurst index H =0. 6416),showing considerably strong trend of increases in FBDC area. Three different methods were further carried out on the original time series,and its two surrogate series generated by function surrogate in library t series,and function Surrogate Data in library in Wavelet software R,so as to analyze the reliability of Hurst indexes. The results showed that the Hurst indices calculated using different estimation methods were greater than 0. 5,ranging from 0. 64 to 0. 97,which indicated that the change of occurrence area data of FBDs was positively autocorrelated.The long-range dependence in forest biological disasters in China is obvious,and the spatial extent of FBDs tended to increase during this study period indicating this trend should be expected to persistent and worsen in the future.
文摘Diabetes has become a concern in the developed and developing countries with its growing number of patients reported to the ministry of health records. This paper discusses the use of the Autoregressive Fractional Moving Average (ARFIMA) technique to modeling the diabetes patient’s attendance at Al-Baha hospitals using monthly time series data. The data used in the analysis of this paper are monthly readings of diabetes patients data covered the period January 2006-December 2016. The data were collected from the General Directorate of Health Affairs, Al-Baha region. The autoregressive fractional moving average approach was applied to the data through the model identification, estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting. Hurst test results and ACF confirmed that there is a long memory behavior in diabetic patient’s data. Also, the fractional difference to diabetes series data revealed that (<em>d</em> = 0.44). Moreover, unit root tests indicated that the fractional difference of diabetes series level is stationary. Furthermore, according to AIC and BIC of model selection criteria ARFIMA (1, 0.44, 0) model shown the smallest values, hence this model was chosen as an adequate represents the data. Also, a diagnostic check confirmed that ARFIMA was appropriate and highly recommended in modeling and forecasting this type of data.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51075060)
文摘How to reduce downtime and improve availability of the complex equipment is very important. Although the unscheduled downtime（USDT） issues of the equipment are very complex, the self-organized criticality（SOC） is the right theory to study complex systems evolution and opens up a new window to the investigation of disasters, such as the sudden failure of the equipment. Firstly,SOC theory and its validation method are introduced. Then an SOC validation method for USDT of the equipment is proposed based on the above theory. Case study is done on bottleneck equipment in a factory and corresponding data pre-process work is done. The rescaled-range（R/S） analysis method is used to calculate the Hurst exponent of USDT time-series data in order to determine the long-range correlation of USDT data on time scale;at the same time the spatial power-law characteristic of USDT time series data is studied. The result shows that the characteristics of SOC are revealed in USDT data of the equipment according to the criterion of SOC. In addition, based on the characteristics of SOC,the overall framework of the prediction method for major sudden failure of the equipment is proposed based on SOC.
