Projecting Spring Consecutive Rainfall Events in the Three Gorges Reservoir Based on Triple-Nested Dynamical Downscaling

Spring consecutive rainfall events(CREs) are key triggers of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area(TGR), China. However, previous projections of CREs based on the direct outputs of global climate models(GCMs) are subject to considerable uncertainties, largely caused by their coarse resolution. This study applies a triple-nested WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model dynamical downscaling, driven by a GCM, MIROC6(Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, version 6), to improve the historical simulation and reduce the uncertainties in the future projection of CREs in the TGR. Results indicate that WRF has better performances in reproducing the observed rainfall in terms of the daily probability distribution, monthly evolution and duration of rainfall events, demonstrating the ability of WRF in simulating CREs. Thus, the triple-nested WRF is applied to project the future changes of CREs under the middle-of-the-road and fossil-fueled development scenarios. It is indicated that light and moderate rainfall and the duration of continuous rainfall spells will decrease in the TGR, leading to a decrease in the frequency of CREs. Meanwhile, the duration, rainfall amount, and intensity of CREs is projected to regional increase in the central-west TGR. These results are inconsistent with the raw projection of MIROC6. Observational diagnosis implies that CREs are mainly contributed by the vertical moisture advection. Such a synoptic contribution is captured well by WRF, which is not the case in MIROC6,indicating larger uncertainties in the CREs projected by MIROC6.

Microplastics in sediment of the Three Gorges Reservoir:abundance and characteristics under different environmental conditions

Freshwater microplastic pollution is an urgent issue of global concern,and research on the distribution in reservoirs is lacking.We investigated the microplastic pollution levels in wet sediments collected from the Three Gorges Reservoir,the largest reservoir of China.Results show that microplastics were ubiquitous in the sediments of the Three Gorges Reservoir,and their abundance ranged from 59 to 276 pp/kg(plastic particles per kg,dry weight).Economic development and total population were important factors affecting the spatial heterogeneity of microplastic abundance,and the contribution of large cities along the reservoir to microplastic pollution should be paid with more attention.Fibrous microplastics were the most abundant type of microplastic particles in reservoir sediments,whereas polystyrene,polypropylene,and polyamide were the main types of polymers.The apparent spatial heterogeneity in morphology and color of microplastics is attributed to different anthropogenic or landbased pollution sources.Moreover,the accumulation of microplastics near the inlet of tributaries reflects the role of potential contributors of tributaries.More importantly,multiple bisphenols(BPs)and heavy metals detected at the microplastic surfaces indicate that microplastics can act as carriers of these pollutants in the environment in the same way as sediments did,which may alter the environmental fate and toxicity of these pollutants.Therefore,we conclude that the Three Gorges Reservoir had been contaminated with microplastics,which posed a stress risk for organisms who ingest them along with their associated pollutants(BPs,heavy metals).

Characteristics and influencing mechanisms of production-living-ecological space dynamics in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area(TGRA),Chongqing,China

The Three Gorges Reservoir Area(TGRA)is an important ecological barrier in the Yangtze River Basin,China.Therefore,it is of great importance to understand the spatio-temporal variation and the driving factors of production-living-ecological spaces for sustainable and high-quality development in the TGRA.This study investigated the dynamic variation of production-living-ecological spaces in the TGRA by employing land use data in 2000,2005,2010,2015,and 2018,and detected the influencing factors by using the Geographic detector(GeoDetector).Results implied that the structure and dynamic trajectories of production-living-ecological spaces in the TGRA varied in both horizontal and vertical directions,and the study area was dominated by ecological space.A spatial orientation towards the northeast was detected in the evolution of production-living-ecological spaces during 2000-2018.In terms of quantity,the transition from ecological space(grassland and woodland)to agriculture land accounted for the largest proportion from 2000 to 2018.However,the reverse transition from agriculture land to ecological space has increased since 2000 with the efforts of“Grain for Green”.In terms of temporal scale,there was a fluctuating trend in production space with the continuous expansion of living space,while ecological space showed an inverted U-shaped trend during 2000-2018.The dynamic pattern of production-living-ecological spaces in the TGRA was influenced by both physical and socio-economic variables as basic determinants and dominant driving factors,respectively.Finally,the harmonization and protection of production-living-ecological spaces still require policy-makers’efforts.This work may have potential in advancing our understanding about land use conflicts,and provide a reference for rational layout of spatial functions and the realization of sustainable development in the TGRA.

Environmental heterogeneity and productivity drive the assemblage of benthic diatom:a case study of the Three Gorges Reservoir

Dam construction has a critical effect on river ecosystems in the world,resulting in a rapid decline in biodiversity and ecosystem health.However,the effect of dam construction on the assemblage pattern of benthic diatoms remains unclear.The benthic diatoms assemblages in the tributary backwater area of the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR)were investigated under low water level(LWL)and high water level(HWL)conditions.Results show that Discostella stelligera,Nitzschia palea,and Craticula subminuscula were dominant species in LWL,while Achnanthidium minutissimum and Nitzschia dissipata were dominant in HWL.Furthermore,environmental variables,productivity parameters,diversity indices,and community similarity were found significantly different between LWL and HWL periods.The Mantel test indicated that both environmental and spatial factors had significant effects on diatom communities in backwater area,while productivity was also a key driving force in LWL.The variation partitioning analysis(VPA)further demonstrated that environment factors could explain the largest variance of diatom assemblages in HWL(9%)and LWL(11%),followed by spatial factors.The relative importance of productivity to diatom community was significantly enhanced in LWL,but only a slight effect was found in HWL.These results indicate that the diatom assemblages were shaped by both environmental filtering and spatial factors.The relative importance of spatial factors depended on the degree of productivity.Therefore,the homogenization of diatom communities due to environmental disturbance,e.g.eutrophication and dam building,is the underlying mechanism in assembling the benthic diatoms.

Review of the Relocation of General Zhang Fei’s Temple in View of the Three Gorges Dam Project

As a national cultural property,General Zhang Fei’s Temple is the largest ancient architectural complex in the Three Gorges of the Yangtze River.It was built in the Han Dynasty and has a long history of nearly 2,000 years.In 1994,the Chinese government launched the Three Gorges Dam project at the Yangtze River and implemented the largest relocation project for the General Zhang Fei Temple to prevent it from being submerged.The temple was relocated 32 kilometers upstream along with the local people of Yunyang County,and the historic environment was rebuilt on the opposite side of the migrant city of New Yunyang County.The temple was restored successfully and the tradition of offering sacrifices to General Zhang Fei continued in the local community.The relocation project lasted for 8 years and became the largest cultural heritage conservation project of the People’s Republic of China at the end of the 20th century.This paper comprehensively summarizes and reviews the project goals,implementation process,and project highlights of this relocation,so as to provide an important case reference for heritage conservation projects in the future.

Impact on Mountainous Agricultural Development in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area forced by Migrants of the Three Gorges Project

The Three Gorges Project attracts worldwide attention because of the Three Gorges migrants, and the agriculture of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area is a foundation for the development of the Three Gorges migrants. The Three Gorges Reservoir Area is situated at the mountainous area with bad agricultural development conditions and relatively low levels of development. As a result, the large-scale migration fias special influence on its agricultural development, which has attracted much attention. The paper analyzes influence that the migrants have forced on its agricultural development based on the scientific data, and makes some explorations on the models that are suitable for the development of mountainous agriculture in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.

Compensation for Land Loss in Reservoir Resettlement: A Case Study of The Three Gorges Project, China

This paper studies current policies in compensation for land lost due to construction of the Three Gorges project (TGP), China. In the case study of Kaixian County, the value of land in the peri-urban areas is underestimated. Some losses in land are tangible and thus measurable, but some losses are intangible and thus immeasurable. The land available in the resettlement areas is scarce and rarely of equivalent quality. This study suggests that the loss of agricultural land be compensated with alternative land and/or non-land-based livelihood strategies, including part compensation in monetary terms and preferential policies.

Strategies for Safe Land Use of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (Chongqing Section)——With the Restoration of Degraded Forest Landscapes as a Study Case

As a key for constructing ecologically safe scenery, forest landscape pattern in Chongqing Section of the Three Gorges has shown degradation, fragmentation and revision of varying degrees. To ensure normal and safe operation of the Three Gorges, and meet requirements of integrated development strategies for ecological and economic effects in Chongqing City on the ecological security of land use in Chongqing section of the Three Gorges, the following points should be attached more importance in making future strategies for an ecologically safe land use pattern with the restoration of degraded forest landscape as its starting point:a. Ecological effects and economic functions that can be supplied by forest landscape elements in different restoration patterns should be understood to obtain background effect of the ecological security pattern scenario of land use in the reservoir region; b. Relationship between restoration of degraded forest landscapes and serious ecological interference factors such as degradation background, artificial disturbance and engineering stress, should be simulated to figure out the influence of natural or artificial driving factors on landscape pattern, determine the future restoration mode for the degraded forest landscapes in the reservoir region, so as to facilitate the construction of great ecological-economic security pattern of the Three Gorges. The findings will provide scientific basis for the decision-making in building an ecologically safe land use pattern in the Three Gorges reservoir area (Chongqing), when using the degradation of forest landscape restoration as a carrier at present or in the future. Further, they will help realize the development goals of "Livable Chongqing, Expedite Chongqing, Forestry Chongqing, Safe Chongqing and Healthy Chongqing".

Effect of nitrogen and phosphorus on the water quality in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area during and after its construction

A survey concerning the concentration of the nutrients in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area was carried out. This paper presents the parameters(NO 3 - N, NO 2 - N, Kjeldahl N, non ionic ammonia, P PO 4 and TP) determined at 16 sampling sites from 1997 to 1999 The dominant soluble nitrogen form was NO 3 - N followed by Kjeldahl N, NO 2 - N and non ionic ammonia. Mean values of NO 3 - N, NO 2 - N, Kjeldahl N and non ionic ammonia ranged from 0 50 to 2 37 mg/L, 0 022 to 0 084 mg/L, 0 33 to 0 99 mg/L and 0 007 to 0 092 mg/L respectively. Mean values of P PO 4 at most sampling sites were higher than 0 1 mg/L for subject to eutrophication. The major factors influencing the concentrations of N and P might be agricultural runoff, municipal and industrial effluents. In addition, 6 kinds of soil were sampled at the area where would inundated after the dam completed. Two approaches were adopted to simulate the N and P release from the inundated soils. The results showed that the soils would release nitrogen and phosphorus to the overlying water when the soils were inundated. The characteristics of soil affected the equilibrium concentrations of N and P between the soil and the overlying water.

Fractal characterization of sediment particle-size distribution in the water-level fluctuation zone of the Three Gorges Reservoir, China

The combined effect of periodic water impoundment and seasonal natural flood events has created a 30 m high water-level fluctuation zone(WLFZ) around the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR), China, forming a unique eco-landscape. Siltation, eutrophication, enrichment of heavy metals, and methane emissions in the WLFZ have been widely associated with sediment and soil particles generated from the upstream catchment or upland slopes. However, little attention has been paid to the complexity of sediment particle-size distributions in the WLFZ. In the present study, core samples(from a 345 cm thick sediment core from the base of the WLFZ), slope transect surface samples(across/up a WLFZ slope), and along-river/longitudinal surface samples(from the reservoir reaches) were collected. Laser granulometry and a volume-based fractal model were used to reveal the characteristics of sediment particle-size distributions. Results indicate that the alternation of coarse and fine particles in the sedimentary core profile is represented as a fluctuation of low and high values of fractal dimension(D), ranging from 2.59 to 2.77. On the WLFZ slope transect, surface sediment particles coarsen with increasing elevation, sand content increases from 3.3% to 78.5%, and D decreases from 2.76 to 2.53. Longitudinally, surface sediments demonstrate a downstream-fining trend, and D increases gradually downstream. D is significantly positively correlated with the fine particle content. We conclude that D is a useful measure for evaluating sediment particle-size distribution.

Displacement characteristics and prediction of Baishuihe landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir

In order to reach the designated final water level of 175 m, there were three impoundment stages in the Three Gorges Reservoir, with water levels of 135 m, 156 m and 175 m. Baishuihe landslide in the Reservoir was chosen to analyze its displacement characteristics and displacement variability at the different stages. Based on monitoring data, the landslide displacement was mainly influenced by rainfall and drawdown of the reservoir water level. However, the magnitude of the rise and drawdown of the water level after the reservoir water level reached 175 m did not accelerate landslide displacement. The prediction of landslide displacement for active landslides is very important for landslide risk management. The time series of cumulative displacement was divided into a trend term and a periodic term using the Hodrick-Prescott(HP) filter method. The polynomial model was used to predict the trend term. The extreme learning machine(ELM) and least squares support vector machine(LS-SVM) were chosen to predict theperiodic term. In the prediction model for the periodic term, input variables based on the effects of rainfall and reservoir water level in landslide displacement were selected using grey relational analysis. Based on the results, the prediction precision of ELM is better than that of LS-SVM for predicting landslide displacement. The method for predicting landslide displacement could be applied by relevant authorities in making landslide emergency plans in the future.

Seismic hazard assessment of the Three Gorges Project

Seismic monitoring data for the past 50 years in the Three Gorges Reservoir area show that the reservoir head area is a typical weak seismic region with low seismieity before impoundment and that the epicenters were concentrated in the east and west sides of the Zigui Basin, most of which were natural tectonic earth- quakes. After impoundment, the seismic activity shifted to the segment between Badong and Zigui along the Yangtze River, mainly within 5 km of the reservoir bank. The seismogenesis was categorized into four types： Karst collapse earthquakes, earthquakes caused by Karst gas explosion, mining tunnel collapse earthquakes, and rock （terrane） slip earthquakes, all of which are related to the lithology, structure, and tectonics of near- surface geological bodies of the area. Compared with the seismicity before impoundment, the seismic frequency increase was remarkable, with most of the magnitudes below Ms2.0. Therefore, the intensity of the earth- quakes remained at a low level. On November 22, 2008, a magnitude 4.1 earthquake, the largest earthquake recorded since impoundment, occurred in Quyuan Town, Zigui County. The intensity and PGA of reservoir-in- duced earthquakes are higher than those of tectonic earthquakes with equal magnitude, but the peak intensity of reservoir-induced earthquakes is not likely to go beyond that of the estimated range from earlier studies.

Dynamics of Rodent and Rodent-borne Disease during Construction of the Three Gorges Reservoir from 1997 to 2012

Objective To investigate the impact of impoundment and active public health interventions on rodent populations and rodent-borne diseases in the Three Gorges reservoir region from 1997 to 2012. Methods Surveillance data from 1997 to 2012 were extracted from the Public Health Surveillance System of The Three Gorges established in 1997. Temporal changes in the incidences of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome （HFRS） and leptospirosis, rodent density, pathogen-carrying rates, and their correlations were analyzed. Results The average indoor and outdoor rodent densities decreased overall from 1997 to 2012. The average densities decreased by 47.72% （from 4.38% to 2.29%） and 39.68% （from 4.41% to 2.66%）, respectively, after impoundment （2003-2012） compared with before impoundment （1997-2002）. The average annual incidence rates of HFRS and leptospirosis were 0.29/100,000 and 0.52/100,000, respectively, and decreased by 85.74% （from 0.68/100,000 to 0.10/100,000） and 95.73% （from 1.47/100,000 to 0.06S/100,000）, respectively, after impoundment compared with before impoundment. Incidences of HFRS and leptospirosis appear to be positively correlated with rodent density in the reservoir area. Conclusion This study demonstrated that rodent density and incidences of rodent-borne diseases decreased and were maintained at low levels during construction of the Three Gorges dam. Measures that reduce rodent population densities could be effective in controlling rodent-borne diseases during large-scale hydraulic engineering construction.

Surface Microtextures of Slipping Zone Soil of Some Landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir District and Their Significance

The mineral assemblage and content and surface microtextures of slipping zone soil of several landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir District have been analyzed using the scanning electron microscope (SEM) and X-ray diffractometer (XRD). All the mineral assemblages are similar in these landslides. The main minerals are montmorillonite, illite, kaolinite, chlorite, quartz and feldspar. There are two kinds of surface microtexture in the slipping zone soil, i.e., linear scratches and arcuate scratches. Based on analyses of the changes of the microtextures, one can obtain information about the number, directions and stages of landslide movements. The authors have also studied the mechanism of landslide formation, evaluated the stability of landslides and revival possibility of ancient landslides and forecasted the activity of similar landslides in different districts. The surface microtexture features of stable landslides and mobile landslides are summarized and it is concluded that the existence of filamentous bacteria may result in or increase movements of landslides.

Land Use of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area and the Effect on Its Landscape Pattern in the Recent 50 Years

The paper makes detailed analysis on the changing processes of the main types of land use in Three Gorges Reservoir Area through the techniques of RS （Remote Sense） and GIS （Geography Information System）. Based on the theory of landscape ecology, many types of landscape pattern indexes are calculated and made correlation analysis. The results indicate that： in 1995 the ecological environment of Three Gorges Reservoir Area was the most vulnerable in the recent 50 years, but resumed in 2002; the landscape pattern diversity index, fractal dimension index and fragmentation index has close correlation with the area of land use/cover change （LUCC）. The research also releases that the increase of the cultivated land, grassland and construction land deteriorates the landscape ecological pattern, while the increase of forest land area will help restore the landscape ecological pattern to its original state. The rapid change of grassland is an important index of the change of landscape pattern, because it has the most effect on change of landscape pattern index.

Conflict between wild boars(Sus scrofa) and farmers:distribution, impacts,and suggestions for management of wild boars in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area

Economic losses caused by wild boars(Sus scrofa)continue to increase in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.We selected 206 farmers in Wuqiaohe Basin as survey respondents using random stratified sampling.The distribution and impacts of wild boars were examined using a questionnaire survey and spatial analysis.The results showed that:(1)The density of farmer settlements is low and most peasants’households are located on the forest edge.Due to large-scale labor migration,a high proportion of farmland(25.85%)has been abandoned and an even higher proportion of farmland(40.48%)has been returned to forest.(2)The probability of wild boar damage to peasant households was 67.96%.Yields of corn and sweet potato decreased by 24.87%and 28.24%,respectively,with a total economic loss of approximately 2,590,100 RMB/yr in the Wuqiaohe basin.Sixty-five percent of the affected cultivatedlands were located within approximately 150 m of the forest edges.(3)The wild boar damage coefficient was significantly and negatively correlated with the distance between the peasants’household and the forest edge,the density of the settlements,and the area of cultivated land.The wild boar damage coefficient shows a significant positive correlation with the area of farmland returned to forest.(4)The damage activity caused by wild boars began to occur7-8 years ago,and the destruction has been more frequently and seriously observed in the last 4-5 years.(5)We make suggestions for wild boar control and management measures including developing a compensation policy.The compensation standard is related to the land area returning from farmland to forests and the actual cultivated land area.

Seasonal succession of phytoplankton in response to the variation of environmental factors in the Gaolan River, Three Gorges Reservoir, China

To understand the responses of a freshwater ecosystem to the impoundment of the Three Gorges Reservoir （TGR）, phytoplankton was monitored in the tributaries of the TGR area. From August 2010 to July 2011, algal species composition, abundance, chlorophyll a and other environmental parameters were investigated in the Gaolan River, which is a tributary of Xiangxi River. Thirty-one algal genera from seven phyla were identified. Results show that the lowest concentrations of total phosphorus （TP） and total nitrogen （TN） were 0.06 mg/L and 1.08 rag/L, respectively. The values of TP and TN exceeded the threshold concentration of the eutrophic state suggested for freshwater bodies. In the Gaolan River, the succession of phytoplankton showed clear seasonal characteristics. Different dominant species were observed among seasons under the control of environment factors. In spring and summer, the dominant species were Nitzschia sp. and Aphanizomenon flos-aquae （L.） Ralfs, the limiting nutrient was NO3^--N, and the key environmental factor for phytoplankton population succession was water temperature （WT）. In autumn and winter, the dominant species were A.flos-aquae and Chlorella sp., the limiting nutrient was pO3--P, and the key environmental factors were transparency and WT. This study illustrates the influence of physical and chemical factors on phytoplankton seasonal succession in a tributary of TGR since the downstream regions of Xiangxi River and Gaolan River became reservoirs after impoundment of the Three Gorges Dam. We suggest that this activity has significantly affected water quality in the dam area.

Variation Characteristics of Water Environmental Capacity in Poyang Lake under the Scheduling of Three Gorges Reservoir

[Objective] The aim was to study the variation characteristics of water environmental capacity in Poyang Lake under the scheduling of Three Gorges Reservoir.[Method] Choosing chemical oxygen demand (COD),total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) as the control indexes of pollutants in Poyang Lake,the variation characteristics of water environmental capacity in Poyang Lake under the scheduling of Three Gorges Reservoir were analyzed based on the water environment mathematical models of organic compounds and nutrients.[Result] After the operation of Three Gorges Project,high water level in Poyang Lake lasted for a long time in flood season when Three Gorges Reservoir increased discharge volume,while water level went down obviously with the accelerating of recession flow when reservoir decreased discharge volume to store water,so Three Gorges Project had obvious effects on the hydrological regime of Poyang Lake.In 2009,when Three Gorges Reservoir stored water,the water environmental capacity of COD,TN and TP in Poyang Lake in October decreased by 14.0%,15.4% and 15.4% compared with those before operation,while they increased by 3.64%,4.88% and 4.88% in August when reservoir discharged water to prevent flood.[Conclusion] The study could provide scientific foundation for the water pollution control and water environment management of lakes.

Spatial-temporal Pattern and Differences of Land Use Changes in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of China during 1975-2005

Regional land use changes are an important part of global changes.The research on land use changes in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of China attracts a lot of attention owing to the Three Gorges Dam building.The Three Gorges Reservoir Area becomes one of the important research areas.This study analyzed the transforming processes and traits of each land use type and the regional differences of land use changes during the past 30 years,summarized the distribution of different land use types in different buffer zones and regresses the equation areas and different buffer distances based on buffer analyses and regression analyses,and then analyzed the transforming rules in different buffer distances,got the optimal influence distances.The research results indicate that,(1) cultivated land lies at the northwest of the reservoir and was decreasing,however,the construction land was increasing,especially the urban construction land,a large number of land was flooded because of the reservoir water level rise;(2) urban area was sprawling quickly in developed and neighboring areas,and a great deal of cultivated land and a considerable amount of grassland were occupied;in the earlier time,rural settlements occupied lots of cultivated land and a sum of forestry land in the later time;(3) the optimum influenced distances for cultivated land and forestry land were 10-35 km,and for urban and rural settlements were in 5-20 km.Overall,this research can reflect the spatial-temporal characteristics of land use changes during the 30 years,and it is helpful for urban planning and land use planning in the reservoir area.

Monitoring result analyses of high slope of five-step ship lock in the Three Gorges Project

The construction of the double-lane five-step ship lock of the Three Gorges Project （TGP） wascommenced in 1994, the excavation of the ship lock was completed by the end of 1999, and the ship lockwas put in operation in June 2003. The side slopes of the ship lock are characterized by great height（170 m）, steepness （70 m in height of upright slope）, and great length （over 7000 m in total length）. Inassociation with the ship lock, the surrounding rocks in slope have a high potential to deform, withwhich the magnitude of deformation is restricted. Monitoring results show that the deformation of thefive-step ship lock high slopes of the TGP primarily occurred in excavation period, and deformationtended to be stable and convergent during operation period, suggesting the allowable ranges of deformation.At present, the slopes and lock chambers are stable, and the ship lock works well under normaloperation condition, enabling the social and economic benefits of the TGP. 2015 Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Production and hosting byElsevier B.V. All rights reserved.