Reservoir-induced landslides and risk control in Three Gorges Project on Yangtze River,China

The Three Gorges region in China was basically a geohazard-prone area prior to construction of the Three Gorges Reservoir （TGR）. After construction of the TGR, the water level was raised from 70 m to 175 m above sea level （ASL）, and annual reservoir regulation has caused a 30-m water level difference after impoundment of the TGR since September 2008. This paper first presents the spatiotemporal distribution of landslides in six periods of 175 m ASL trial impoundments from 2008 to 2014. The results show that the number of landslides sharply decreased from 273 at the initial stage to less than ten at the second stage of impoundment. Based on this, the reservoir-induced landslides in the TGR region can be roughly classified into five failure patterns, i.e. accumulation landslide, dip-slope landslide, reversed bedding landslide, rockfall, and karst breccia landslide. The accumulation landslides and dip-slope landslides account for more than 90%. Taking the Shuping accumulation landslide （a sliding mass volume of 20.7 × 106 m^3） in Zigui County and the Outang dip-slope landslide （a sliding mass volume of about 90 × 106 m^3） in Fengjie County as two typical cases, the mechanisms of reactivation of the two landslides are analyzed. The monitoring data and factor of safety （FOS） calculation show that the accumulation landslide is dominated by water level variation in the reservoir as most part of the mass body is under 175 m ASL, and the dip-slope landslide is controlled by the coupling effect of reservoir water level variation and precipitation as an extensive recharge area of rainfall from the rear and the front mass is below 175 m ASL. The characteristics of landslide-induced impulsive wave hazards after and before reservoir impoundment are studied, and the probability of occurrence of a landslide-induced impulsive wave hazard has increased in the reservoir region. Simulation results of the Ganjingzi landslide in Wushan County indicate the strong relationship between landslide-induced surge and water variation with high potential risk to shipping and residential areas. Regarding reservoir regulation in TGR when using a single index, i.e. 1-d water level variation, water resources are not well utilized, and there is also potential risk of disasters since 2008. In addition, various indices such as 1-d, 5-d, and 10-d water level variations are proposed for reservoir regulation. Finally, taking reservoir-induced landslides in June 2015 for example, the feasibility of the optimizing indices of water level variations is verified.

The Upper Limit Size of Reservoir-Induced Earthquakes

We showed the relation between the magnitude of induced earthquake and the reservoir storage and dam height based on the global catalog from 1967 to 1989 compiled by Ding Yuanzhang(1989).By multiplying reservoir storage with dam height,we introduced a new parameter named E_E.We found that the cases with specific E_E and magnitude do not exceed a limit.Based on the discussion of its physics,we called E_E the equivalent energy.We considered this limit as the upper limit of magnitude for reservoir-induced earthquakes.The result was proved by the recent cases occurring in China.This size limitation can be used as a helpful consideration for reservoir design.

The M_S 4.1 Reservoir-induced Hujiaping Earthquake in the Yangtze Three Gorges Reservoir Region

In this paper,based on the collected data and earthquake field investigation,characteristics of the MS4.1 Hujiaping earthquake of November 22,2008 at Guizhou town in Zigui county,Hubei Province and the geological and hydrogeological conditions and seismicity background of the area are analyzed,and the earthquake disaster is presented. Some scientific issues relating to earthquake precursors and the cause of the earthquake is discussed. The authors consider that the earthquake is a tectonic type reservoir-induced earthquake,occurring along the Xiannvshan fault under the joint action of reservoir water loading and water infiltration,and that there were certain suspected anomalies appearing in the gravity field before the earthquake. The cause of the earthquake may also be related to the effect of the Wenchuan earthquake on the local stress field.

Dynamic damage evolution of bank slopes with serrated structural planes considering the deteriorated rock mass and frequent reservoirinduced earthquakes

To investigate the dynamic damage evolution characteristics of bank slopes with serrated structural planes,the shaking table model test and the numerical simulation were utilized.The main findings indicate that under continuous seismic loads,the deformation of the bank slope increased,particularly around the hydro-fluctuation belt,accompanying by the pore water pressure rising.The soil pressure increased and then decreased showed dynamic variation characteristics.As the undulation angle of the serrated structural planes increased(30°, 45°, and 60°),the failure modes were climbing,climbinggnawing,and gnawing respectively.The first-order natural frequency was used to calculate the damage degree(Dd)of the bank slope.During microseisms and small earthquakes,it was discovered that the evolution of Dd followed the“S”shape,which was fitted by a logic function.Additionally,the quadratic function was used to fit the Dd during moderately strong earthquakes.Through the numerical simulation,the variation characteristics of safety factors(Sf)for slopes with serrated structural planes and slopes with straight structural planes were compared.Under continuous seismic loads,the Sf of slopes with straight structural planes reduce stalely,whereas the Sf for slopes with serrated structural planes was greater than the former and the reduction rate was increasing.

Analysis of the relationship between water level fluctuation and seismicity in the Three Gorges Reservoir(China)

The Three Gorges Reservoir is a good site for the further researches on reservoir induced seismicity due to decades＇ seismic monitoring. After the first water impounding in 2003, seismic activity becomes more frequent than that before water impoundment. In order to quantitatively study, the relationship between the water level fluctuation and earthquakes in TGR, we introduced statistical methods to attain the goal. First of all, we relocated the earthquakes in TGR region with double difference method and divided the earthquakes into 5 clusters with clustering analysis method. Secondly, to examine the impacts of water level fluctuation in different water filling stages on the seismic activity in the 5 clusters, a series of statistical analyses are applied. Pearson correlation results show that only the 175 m water level fluc- tuation has significantly positive impacts on the seismic activity in clusters I, II, III and V with correlation coefficients of 0.44, 0.38, 0.66 and 0.63. Cross-correlation analysis demonstrates that 0, ], 0 and 0 month time delay separately for the clusters I, II, III and V exists. It illustrated the influences of the water loading and pore pressure diffusion on induced earthquakes. Cointegration tests and impulse response analysis denoted that the 175 m water level only had long term and significant effects just on the seismic events in the intersection region of the Fairy Mount Fault and Nine-brook Fault. One standard deviation shock to 175 m water level increased the seismic activity in cluster V for the first 3 months, and then the negative influence was shown. After 7 months, the negative impulse response becomes stable. The long-term effect of the 175 m water impoundment also proved the important role of pore pressure diffusion in RIS with time.

Prediction and verification of earthquakes induced by the Xiluodu hydropower station reservoir

Research has been conducted on reservoir-induced earthquakes in China since the Xinfengjiang reservoir-induced earthquakes in the 1960s.Regulations now require the risk of reservoir-induced earthquakes to be evaluated in the pre-research stage of all hydropower projects.Although nearly 40 cases of reservoir-induced earthquakes have been reported in China,analyses comparing the changes in seismic activity following reservoir impoundment with predictions are rare.In this study,we compared seismic activities observed in the reservoir area before and after the impoundment of the Xiluodu hydropower station in terms of the spatial distribution,frequency,and focal depths of the earthquakes,and clarified the correlation between their frequency/timing and reservoir level after impoundment.We then concluded that the seismic events in the head region were karst-type earthquakes,while those in the second segment of the reservoir were tectonic earthquakes.The spatial distribution of the earthquake epicenters and the seismic intensities validated some of the results for the reservoir-induced seismic risk assessment for the Xiluodu hydropower station,indicating that the proposed earthquake triggers and predictive models are reasonable.This study can provide a valuable reference for investigating the mechanism(s)of reservoir-induced earthquakes,revising reservoir-induced earthquake hazard assessment codes,and predicting the hazard zones of reservoir-induced seismicity under similar conditions.

Intensive Observation of Reservoirinduced Seismicity and Preliminary Analysis on the Causes of Earthquakes in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area,Yangtze River

In accordance with the requirements of the National Key Technology R＆D Program of the 11th ＂Five-year Plan＂, a densified seismic network consisting of 26 seismic stations was established at the Three Gorges Reservoir area in the section of Hubei Province in March 2009 （21 short-period seismographs, 5 broadband digital seismographs）. From March to December, 2009, a total of 2,995 ML -0. 8 - 2. 9 earthquakes were detected during the trial impounding of the Three Gorges Reservoir （ water level rose from 145 m to 172.8m）. Using the double difference earthquake location algorithm, 2,837 earthquakes were precisely re-located. The results show that the pattern of small local earthquake swarms in the Three Gorges Reservoir area took on a linear distribution or mass-like cluster distribution, the mass-like clusters of events were generally within a distance of 5 km from waterfront, and the linear distribution of the earthquakes could be extended to a distance of 16 km away from the waterfront. In the Hubei section of the Three Gorges Reservoir, earthquakes were mainly concentrated in the northern end of the Xiannvshan and Jiuwanxi faults near the Xiangxihe River, and along the banks of the Yangtze River at the west of Xietan township and the Shenlongxi area on the northern bank in the Badong region, with focal depths less than 10km, and 4km in average. Earthquake frequency in the reservoir region had a positive correlation with reservoir water level fluctuations, indicating that the seismicity belongs to reservoir induced earthquakes. Along the Shenlong River in the reservoir area, earthquakes showed three linear distributions in the northern Badong county, and distributed according to Karst distribution. There are underground rivers in the carbonate strata. When the reservoir was impounded, water permeated into the underground rivers, thus inducing earthquakes. Earthquakes in the areas on the crossriver segment of Xiannvshan fault, the Jiuwanxi fault and at the areas west of Xietan, Shazhen and Xizhen, may be related to the softening of discontinuities, such as the Nukou fault, the Xiannvshan fault, or the bedding joints, which would lead to failure of rock masses, thus, inducing earthquakes. However, convincing conclusions about the triggering mechanism still need further study. Additionally, near the areas south of Wenhua and Yanglin of Zigui county and at Rangkou town east of Badong county, mininginduced earthquakes occurred at the mines nearby, and on the shores of the reservoir are some collapse earthquakes.

Research on Seismicity and Source Parameters of Small Earthquakes in the Zipingpu Reservoir before the Wenchuan M_S 8. 0 Earthquake

Based on the digital seismic waveform data observed from regional and reservoir seismic networks,the seismicity and source parameters in the Zipingpu reservoir area from January 1,2000 to May 11,2008 before the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake are studied. The analysis shows a continuous activity of small earthquakes before the Wenchuan MS8. 0 earthquake. The level of seismic activity was from ML2.0 to ML3.0 in recent years. The impoundment of Zipingpu reservoir started in September 2005 and the obvious increment of seismic activities occurred in February 2008,but according to the analysis of the longer time series,the frequency and intensity of seismic activities do not exceed its range,which means it is still a fluctuation of regional seismic activities or tectonic activity. At the same time,we also studied the spatio-temporal distribution and the change of apparent stress difference in the source region before the great earthquake,and the results show that the apparent stress values of small earthquakes are generally higher than fitted values of apparent stress in the reservoir area in the nearly three months before the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake. It can be seen from the spatial distribution of apparent stress difference,that the epicenter of the earthquake is located at a low stress distribution area,and the relatively high apparent stress difference is at the east of the epicenter. Apparent stress increment occurred in local areas.

Three-Gorges Reservoir Area on the Yangtze River Faced with Risk of Induced Destructive Earthquakes

The Three-Gorge Water Conservancy Project on the Yangtze River started to impound water by locking gates on June 1, 2003. A swarm of more than 2000 small earthquakes suddenly occurred densely along the river section in Xinling Town north of Badong, Hubei Province, on June 7. This caused grave concern in the following years, but, with the completion of the second- and third-phase engineering construction, the water level in the reservoir will rise up to 156 m and 175 m respectively, no matter whether it can induce larger and stronger earthquakes. After an analysis of the distribution of active faults in the eastern part of the reservoir area, their intersections and capability to generate earthquakes from a seismo-tectonic viewpoint, we consider that after the reservoir impounding, two potential focal zones existing in Badong and Zigui counties may generate M 5.5 earthquake, the seismic intensity of which may reach Ⅷ. It will induce landslide bodies in the reservoir area to be reactivated and slide. The evidence is the large-scale landslide occurring on the Shazhenxi Creek river in Zigui County on June 12, 2003.

Influences of the Three Gorges Project on seismic activities in the reservoir area

Reservoir-induced earthquakes related with the construction of the Three Gorges Project have attracted great concerns of the public. Since the first water impoundment on May 25, 2003, a number of earthquakes have occurred during the water storage stages, in which the largest was the Badong M5.1 earthquake on December 16, 2013. In this paper, the relationships between seismic activities, b value, seismic parameters, and reservoir water level fluctuations are studied. In addition, based on the digital seismic waveform data obtained since 2000, the focal depth changes and focal mechanism characteristics before and after the water impoundment are studied as well. These provide us important information to understand the earthquake mechanisms. The results show that these earthquakes are typical reservoir-induced earthquakes, which are closely related to water infiltration, pore pressure, and water level fluctuations.The majority of the micro and small earthquakes are caused by karst collapse, mine collapse, bank reformation, superficial unloading, and so on. The larger earthquakes are related to the fault structures to some extent. Due to the persistent effects of water impoundment on the seismic and geological environments around the reservoir and water infiltration into the rocks, the influences on the crustal deformation field, gravity field, seepage field, and fault medium-softening action may vary gradually from a higher strength to a weaker one. Therefore, it is possible that small earthquakes and few medium earthquakes(M≤5.5) will occur in the reservoir area in the future.