The Prediction for the Consumer Price Index of Residents in Perspective of Time Series Method in Case of Chongqing

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the relative number of changes in the price level of consumer goods and services over time, reflecting the trend and degree of changes in the price level of goods and services purchased by residents. This article uses the ARMA model to analyze the fluctuation trend of the CPI (taking Chongqing as an example) and make short-term predictions. To test the predictive performance of the model, the observation values from January to December 2023 were retained as the reference object for evaluating the predictive accuracy of the model. Finally, through trial predictions of the data from May to August 2023, it was found that the constructed model had good fitting performance.

An analysis of Chinese urban residents＇ consumer demand employing a dynamic semi-parametric panel data model

Using data for China for the years 1991 to 2005 by province and employing the semi- parametric panel data model estimation method developed by Horowitz （2004） and Henderson et al. （2006） and Hubler＇s non-parametric generalized method of moments （GMM） estimation （2005）, this article constructs a dynamic semi-parametric panel data model and describes the dynamic changing trajectory of the effect on consumption of income disparity among urban residents. Our findings show that there is a significant ＂ratchet effect＂ in the consumption of urban residents; that income disparity among urban residents has a clear negative influence on consumption; and that the trajectory of this influence shows a roughly bimodal curve.

Co-integration Analysis of the Relationship between Residents' Consumer Spending and GDP in Hubei Province

In accordance with the economic data from Statistical Communique on National Economy and Social Development in Hubei Province in the period 1980-2009, we use co-integration analysis method to research the impact of GDP growth on residents' consumer spending. Result shows that although there are differences between GDP and residents' consumer spending in the short term, the equilibrium relationship exists between them, namely, the co-integration relationship, showing consistency in trends.

Research on Rural Consumer Demand in Hebei Province Based on Principal Component Analysis

By selecting the time sequence data concerning influencing factors of rural consumer demand in Hebei Province from 2000 to 2010,this paper uses the principal component analysis method in multiplex econometric statistical analysis,constructs the principal component of consumer demand in Hebei Province,conducts regression on the dependent variable of consumer spending per capita in Hebei Province and the principal component of consumer demand so as to get principal component regression,and then conducts quantitative and qualitative analysis on the principal component.The results show that total output value per capita (yuan),employment rate,and income gap,are correlative with rural residents' consumer demand in Hebei Province positively;consumer price index,upbringing ratio of children,and one-year interest rate are correlative with rural residents' consumer demand in Hebei Province negatively;the ratio of supporting the elderly and medical care spending per capita are correlative with rural residents' consumer demand in Hebei Province positively.The corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to promote residents' consumer demand in Hebei Province as follows:develop county economy in Hebei Province and increase rural residents' consumer demand;use industry to support agriculture and coordinate urban-rural development;improve rural medical care and health system and resolve actual difficulties of the masses.

The Empirical Analysis of Difference of Urban-rural Residents’ Marginal Propensity to Consume

According to the data concerning consumption and income in 55 Years of Statistics Chronicle of New China,China Statistical Yearbook,by using econometric model,this paper expounds the reason of shortage of residents’ consumption demand in China and tests the difference of marginal propensity to consume of China's urban-rural residents.The results show that the urban residents’ marginal propensity to consume is greater than rural residents’ marginal propensity to consume in China,but the urban residents’ marginal propensity to consume tends to decline,while the rural residents’ marginal propensity to consume tends to rise.In terms of urban-rural income structure,consumption structure and consumption of consumer durables,this paper analyzes the reason of the change of urban-rural residents’ marginal propensity to consume,and it can be described from following 3 aspects:first,urban residents’ income is mainly wage and salary,while urban residents’ income is mainly operating net income.The urban residents are conservative towards the expected income,while rural residents are relatively optimistic towards the expected income;second,in comparison with rural residents’ consumption structure,the urban residents’ consumption structure has big proportion of unessential expenditure,so the income elasticity of consumption is big;third,the urban residents’ traditional consumer durables approach saturation,while the rural residents’ traditional consumer durables are still at the period of increase,and the urban residents’ purchase of emerging consumer durables is inhibited,with great fluctuation.Based on research results and actual situation,this paper puts forward that the key of spurring increase of China's consumption demand is to expand consumption demand of rural residents.

The Influencing Factors and Inter-Group Differences for Urban Residents' Behavior of Consuming Edible Vegetable Oil

To clarify the determinant factors and inter-group differences of Chinese urban residents' edible vegetable oil consuming behavior is very important for us to understand their consumption features of edible vegetable oil,so as to guide their consuming behavior and improve China's vegetable oil industry security.In this article,urban residents of China's three traditional vegetable oil main production areas have been chosen as study objects,and multiple linear regression and one-way ANOVA have been used to do empirical analysis on the determinant factors and inter-group differences of their edible vegetable oil consuming behavior.The results indicate that the edible vegetable oil consuming behavior of urban residents from China's three traditional vegetable oil main production areas show a trend of diversification;" publicity measures"," preference evaluation"," personal characteristics" and " family characteristics" remarkably affect urban residents' edible vegetable oil consuming behavior and show obvious provincial characteristics.In addition,urban residents from different groups show differences in terms of " publicity measures" and " preference evaluation".

The Impact of the Income Gap in Rural China on Residents' Consumption Based on Theil Index

This paper measures the Chinese regional income distribution gap based on the Theil index with data of 31 provinces in China from 1998 to 2011. The results showed that overall the income gap between China's rural areas was on the rise from 1998 to 2006,and the income gap was mainly caused by the gap between the East China,Central China and West China. After 2006,it showed a slow decline. The dynamic panel data model established for consumer demand,spending habits,income,regional income disparities showed that income and regional income disparities significantly influence consumer demand of rural residents. Before 2006 regional income gap inhibited the consumption of rural residents,but it promoted consumption after 2006.

Dynamic Analysis of Interaction between Rural Residents' Consumption and Income

In recent years,the income and consumption level of farmers is lower than that of urban residents,and in the context of current grave international economic environment,it is very unfavorable to expanding domestic demand and stimulating economic growth. Based on the empirical analysis of rural residents' income and consumption,this paper explores the reasons for lagging consumption of rural residents in China,and finally puts forth the recommendations for increasing farmers' income,promoting farmers' consumption and expanding the rural market.

Testing for Sources of Irreversible Consumer Demand

The existence of irreversible demand is tested, whereby price increases induce a different absolute magnitude of quantity change than price decreases. Irreversibility is potentially likely in retail food settings for storable products that are consumed regularly and can affect pricing strategy performance. If irreversibility exists, the subsequent research question for storable product demand is whether loss aversion effects dominate stockpiling effects, or vice versa. A two-period theoretical model is developed, which predicts more elastic responses to downward price movements via stockpiling, but empirical tests on secondary data are needed to evaluate offsetting loss aversion effects. A variant of the Rotterdam demand model is developed to allow differential response to price increases and decreases. The model is applied to scanner data of short periodicity （weekly in this case）, which are necessary to measure meaningful demand responses to food price changes. The products selected are U.S. cheeses and table spreads that are storable over multiple weeks. The results suggest that stockpiling dominates loss aversion. One potential cause of this behavior may be that marketers asymmetrically provide consumers with more reference price information when lowering prices, but not when raising prices. When stockpiling effects dominate, given the typically price-elastic store-level demand for food products, high-low pricing strategies should produce higher revenue. Regarding measurement of average demand response, reversible demand models applied to weekly data may overestimate own-price elasticities.

Comparative Analysis of Urban-rural Residents' Propensity to Consume in China's Four Regions

According to the data in China Statistical Yearbook from 1992 to 2008,by using regression model,we adopt least square method and generalized least square method to conduct empirical analysis on the relationship between urban-rural residents' income and consumption in China's east,northeast,central region and west.The results show that the urban-rural residents' propensity to consume in China's four regions has prominent characteristics.In terms of region,urban residents' marginal propensity to consume takes on irregular fluctuation,while the rural residents' propensity to consume conforms to law of diminishing of marginal propensity to consume;in terms of time sequence,the rural residents' marginal propensity to consume in China's four regions takes on "multi-U-form" fluctuation trend,and the rural residents' marginal propensity to consume in different regions has certain difference,while the urban residents' marginal propensity to consume takes on low-frequency broad width fluctuation trend;the urban-rural residents' average marginal propensity to consume in China's four regions conforms to the law of diminishing.In order to increase consumption and promote the balanced rapid development of regional economy,in light of the urban-rural difference and characteristics of different regions,we should propound effective measures to promote urban-rural residents' propensity to consume,and formulate and implement regional policy in order to stimulate consumption.

Coupon-based Demand Response for Consumers Facing Flat-rate Retail Pricing

Even though smart meters have been widely used in power systems around the world,many consumers are still finding it hard to participate in demand response(DR)due to flat-rate retail pricing policy.To address this issue,this paper proposes a coupon-based demand response(CDR)scheme to achieve equivalent dynamic retail prices to inspire consumers’inherent elasticity.First,a security-constrained unit commitment optimization model is developed in the day-ahead market to obtain coupon rewards,which are then broadcast to consumers to motivate them to reschedule their power consumption behaviors.To evaluate the adjustment value of consumers’power consumption,a collective utility function is proposed to formulate the relationship between power quantity and coupon rewards.On this basis,the security-constrained economic dispatch model is developed in the intra-day market to reschedule generating units’output power according to real-time load demands and fluctuating renewable energies.After the operation interval,a settlement method is developed to quantify consumers’electricity fees and coupon benefits on a monthly basis.The proposed CDR scheme avoids real-time iterative bidding process and effectively decreases the difficulty of massive,small consumers participating in DR.The proposed CDR is implemented in a realistic DR project in China to verify consumers’energy cost and renewables’curtailment can both be decreased.

Issues of Expansion of China Rural Resident Consumption

The international financial crisis on our economic development resulted in the inevitable impact on Chinese economy. In order to get rid of the impact, the expansion of domestic demand has been a crucial means of steady economic growth in China. However, the farmers over seven million account for a large proportion should be the main consumers in China. On the contrary, the current lack of domestic demand in China, which is mainly in rural consumption, is the lack of the critical issues of our efforts to expand domestic demand. This paper clarified the factors restricting China rural residents＇ consumption demand expansion, and on this basis explored the expansion of rural residents＇ consumption demand countermeasures. Empirical analysis was used to prove the low level of income of rural residents＇ constraints, and also to expose the fact that social security system was imperfect. Meanwhile, rural infrastructure restricted the consumption level of rural residents. The consumer market is an effective way to improve rural residents＇ consumption demand.

Study on Characteristics of Consumption Demand and Its Constraints of Rural Areas in China

Combining the statistic data of 1997~2009,this paper analyzes the income of farmers in eight minority areas, structure of consumption demand, the marginal propensity to consume and its constraints factors on eight minority provinces,finally, concludes with some specific proposals. That includes increasing peasant’s income, strengthening rural infrastructure construction, establishing perfect rural social security system and promoting reasonable and healthy consumption of peasants.

Overview of the Consumer Behavior Study in the Markets of Food Products(1998-2018),Based on the Author’s Interpretation of the Consumer's Requirements in the System of Values that Influence on the Consumer Market Behavior

The purpose of this study was to review the results of a 20-year study in the author’s interpretation of the needs for food products and the value system that determines the market behavior of consumers in the food markets.The scientific novelty of the research is the following results:a)The author’s interpretation of the needs for food products,as consisting of three components:(1)The actual need for food(physiological need);(2)the need for emotions obtained from eating(psychological need);and(3)the need for market products that can meet the physiological needs of emotional expectations and social needs(socio-psychological and economic need);b)Interdisciplinary approach to the study of consumer behavior that led to the author’s interpretation of the value of the research methods outlined in the works of J.N.Sheth et al.,extended and supplemented in the study of Galina V.Astratova(1998);c)Identification of the fact that the importance of components in the system of values,according to the results of research,is different for different food products.This allows simulating more clearly the behavior of the consumer in the development of a marketing-mix and developing a marketing strategy based on targeting.

扩大内需的潜力展望与实施路径

有效需求不足是影响我国经济高质量发展的一个关键性问题。当前,导致我国有效需求不足的主要结构性因素包括:我国居民可支配收入在国民收入中的占比较低导致居民整体消费水平偏低;个别行业产能过剩约束制造业投资增长;制造业下滑、基建投资瓶颈等多重约束下的民间投资负重前行。从更为宏观的视角看,扩大国内需求激发经济增长潜力仍然具有广阔空间,主要体现在我国居民消费结构升级空间广阔;城镇化的增量空间和存量改进空间仍然存在;高储蓄率是持续发挥有效投资关键作用的基础;推进金融高水平对外开放,可引导外资为国内资本存量提供新支撑;第二次人口红利有望接替第一次人口红利,推动经济的可持续增长。为进一步扩大内需、激发我国经济增长潜力,可从以下三个方面优化宏观调控思路,一是通过扩大中央财政赤字和改革基础货币发行机制,助力畅通国内大循环;二是向居民部门让渡部分收入,推动居民消费可持续增长;三是通过稳预期、降成本、促创新,稳定民间投资。

出口退税、消费者福利与高水平对外开放

在国际贸易环境不稳定及中国国内构建新发展格局的双重背景下,二十大报告指出要进一步畅通供需双侧循环,持续推进以扩大内需为基本导向的高水平对外开放。如今出口退税对供给及外需侧的研究已得到广泛关注,但关于其对内需侧影响的研究却较少。文章利用2004—2021年产品层面出口退税率数据及中国地区层面价格与工资等数据,考察了出口退税对中国消费者福利水平的影响。研究表明,出口退税率上调会通过降低物价水平即降低消费效应和提高工资水平即增加收入效应来提高消费者福利。进一步的异质性分析表明出口退税的上调对低收入群体及东部地区福利提升水平更大。因此,政府应进一步推进出口退税政策的实施,充分发挥在其促外贸、扩内需的作用,以实现更高水平的对外开放。

Demand for Money and Inflation in Ethiopia

One of the vital components of the macroeconomic model that helps policymaking is the demand for money function.Having reliable predictions on the money demand function helps in determining the optimum growth of money supply which is vital in controlling the inflation rate in the economy and also preventing monetary disturbances from affecting real output.In order to formulate and estimate the money demand function in Ethiopia,this study used quarterly data from 2000Q3 to 2021Q2 and employed the Ordinary Least Square method and Engle-Granger two-stage procedure for empirical analysis.The empirical result from the models indicates that,in the long run,all variables(real GDP,CPI inflation,real effective exchange rate,real interest rate and lagged real money balance)are significantly affecting the demand for money in Ethiopia.Whereas,the estimated coefficients of the short-run variable show that the real effective exchange rate,CPI inflation,and lagged real money balance are the main determinants of demand for money while the real GDP and real interest rate are insignificant.Another important finding is that absolute value of the coefficient of the error correction term implies that about 54.2%of the disequilibrium in real money demand is counter-balanced by short-run adjustment in each quarter.The study suggests that in conducting monetary policy,policymakers should consider not only the behavior of income and price but also the movement of exchange rates.The study also calls for appropriate formulation and estimation of the all-encompassing demand for money function that is capable of bringing stability to the growth of money coupled with sustainable economic growth.

基于卡诺模型的城市居民居家社区养老服务需求分析

《“十四五”国家老龄事业发展和养老服务体系规划》明确了“十四五”期间养老服务体系建设目标。准确了解居家社区养老人员服务需求,可以更精准地实现规划目标。首先设计城市居民居家社区养老服务需求指标体系和卡诺问卷,以江门市10个社区居家养老人员为调查对象,收集有效问卷249份。其次运用卡诺模型对问卷数据进行需求属性频数统计、Better-Worse矩阵分析、需求指标敏感性分析,得到魅力属性、期望属性、必备属性和无差异属性分类结果。最后提出总体需求改善策略和针对4类需求属性的需求改善策略,以及4类需求属性和各需求属性中需求指标的优先改善次序。

数字技术对制造业全球价值链分工地位升级影响研究

随着数字技术进步及其在经济各领域的快速应用,其对产业全球价值链(GVC)地位升级的推动作用日益显著。基于OECD-TiVA联合发布TiVA数据库2006—2018年的数据,以64个经济体为研究样本,实证检验数字技术对制造业GVC分工地位升级的影响。研究结果显示:数字技术显著促进制造业GVC分工地位的升级;提高劳动生产率、优化人力资本结构以及刺激消费需求,是数字技术促进制造业GVC分工地位升级的作用机制。异质性分析表明:数字技术对于低互联网发展水平以及中低收入经济体GVC分工地位升级的促进作用更为明显。据此提出,增强数字技术对我国制造业GVC分工地位升级的促进作用,应大幅提升我国数字技术创新和应用能力;增强贸易规则话语权,推动“数字贸易”发展;加快培养数字技术人才,加速推动消费结构升级。

国内消费者需求偏好与贸易高质量发展

本文聚焦国内消费者需求偏好视角来考察中国贸易高质量发展,采用2000—2014年中国海关数据库、中国工业企业数据库、全国标准信息公共服务平台数据库、WIOD和CEPII数据库,研究了国内消费者需求偏好升级对中国企业进出口产品质量的影响。研究发现:国内消费者需求偏好升级能够有效提升企业进口产品质量,但没有促进企业出口产品质量提升,即中国企业出口产品质量与国内需求偏好升级背离;供需失衡和国内国际标准不对接是导致出口产品质量背离的重要原因;在需求侧,高端需求外移导致国内市场供需脱节,而在供给侧,价值链上游产业和中间产品的供给未能跟上需求偏好升级的步伐则进一步加剧了出口产品质量的背离。因此,把握国内消费者需求偏好升级的契机,构建供需适配的国内大循环体系,推动国内国际标准对接以及价值链上游的供给侧结构性改革,有助于实现贸易高质量发展。