Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Gansu Section of Yellow River Basin Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model

As a basic natural resource and strategic economic resource,the development and utilization of water resources is an important issue related to the national economy and people's livelihood.How to scientifically evaluate the water resources carrying capacity is the premise to improve the regional water resources carrying capacity and ensure the regional water security.The Gansu section of the Yellow River basin is an important water conservation and recharge area.Whether the water resources in this area can ensure the normal operation of the ecosystem and whether it can carry the sustainable development of social economy is the key to realize the high-quality development of the Yellow River basin.In this study,from the three dimensions of water consumption per capita,water consumption of 10000 yuan GDP and ecological water use rate,by constructing the evaluation index system and index grading standard of water resources carrying capacity,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was used to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin,in order to provide theoretical decision-making basis for the comprehensive development,utilization and planning management of water resources in Gansu section of the Yellow River basin and even the whole basin,and help the high-quality development of the Yellow River basin.

Evaluation of the water resources carrying capacity of Shandong peninsula, China

Research on the carrying capacity and security of water resources is vital for its contribution to implementing sustainable development goals. The limitation of water resources is one of the most important factors that influence the sustainable utilization of resources. Studying the carrying capacity of water resources will not only facilitate monitoring and forecast of national resources and environmental carrying capacity, but also be valuable for building ecological civilization. According to the principles of evaluation system, the carrying capacity of water resources on Shandong peninsula is explored. A comprehensive evaluation model of the carrying capacity of water resources is constructed based on the carrying capacity of water resources index and the composite of water resources index. The results show that the capacity of water resources on Shandong peninsula is generally consistent with overexploitation, and that the development and utilization of water resources has reached a considerable scale under existing economic and technological conditions. The carrying capacity of water resources in this region is relatively small, and the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources is alarming. Relative countermeasures are put forward, to improve the water resources carrying capacity and to provide a basis for future sustainable development and utilization of water resources in this region.

Evaluation of regional water resources carrying capacity based on binary index method and reduction index method

Based on the regional water resources carrying capacity(WRCC)evaluation principles and evaluation index system in the National Technical Outline of Water Resources Carrying Capacity Monitoring and Early Warning(hereafter referred to as the Technical Outline),this paper elaborates on the collection and sorting of the basic data of water resources conditions,water resources development and utilization status,social and economic development in basins,analysis and examination of integrity,consistency,normativeness,and rationality of the basic data,and the necessity of WRCC evaluation.This paper also describes the technique of evaluating the WRCC in prefecture-level cities and city-level administrative divisions in the District of the Taihu Lake Basin,which is composed of the Taihu Lake Basin and the Southeastern River Basin.The evaluation process combines the binary index evaluation method and reduction index evaluation method.The former,recommended by the Technical Outline,uses the total water use and the amount of exploited groundwater as evaluation indices,showing stronger operability,while the latter is developed by simplifying and optimizing the comprehensive index system with greater systematicness and completeness.The mutual validation and adjustment of the results of the above-mentioned two evaluation methods indicate that the WRCC of the District of the Taihu Lake Basin is overloaded in general because some prefecture-level cities and city-level administrative divisions in the Taihu Lake Basin and the Southeastern River Basin are in a severely overloaded state.In order to explain this conclusion,this paper analyzes the causes of WRCC overloading from the aspects of basin water environment,water resources development and utilization,water resources regulation and control ability,water resources utilization efficiency,and water resources management.

System dynamics model of Suzhou water resources carrying capacity and its application

A model of Suzhou water resources carrying capacity （WRCC） was set up using the method of system dynamics （SD）. In the model, three different water resources utilization programs were adopted： （1） continuity of existing water utilization, （2） water conservation/saving, and （3） water exploitation. The dynamic variation of the Suzhou WRCC was simulated with the supply-decided principle for the time period of 2001 to 2030, and the results were characterized based on socio-economic factors. The corresponding Suzhou WRCC values for several target years were calculated by the model. Based on these results, proper ways to improve the Suzhou WRCC are proposed. The model also produced an optimized plan, which can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable utilization of Suzhou water resources and for the coordinated development of the society, economy, and water resources.

Measurement and assessment of water resources carrying capacity in Henan Province, China

As demands on limited water resources intensify, concerns are being raised about water resources carrying capacity（WRCC）, which is defined as the maximum sustainable socioeconomic scale that can be supported by available water resources and while maintaining defined environmental conditions. This paper proposes a distributed quantitative model for WRCC, based on the principles of optimization, and considering hydro-economic interaction, water supply, water quality, and socioeconomic development constraints. With the model, the WRCCs of 60 subregions in Henan Province were determined for different development periods. The results showed that the water resources carrying level of Henan Province was suitably loaded in 2010, but that the province would be mildly overloaded in 2030 with respect to the socioeconomic development planning goals. The restricting factors for WRCC included the available water resources, the increasing rate of GDP, the urbanization ratio, the irrigation water utilization coefficient, the industrial water recycling rate, and the wastewater reuse rate, of which the available water resources was the most crucial factor. Because these factors varied temporally and spatially, the trends in predicted WRCC were inconsistent across different subregions and periods.

Evaluation of water resources carrying capacity of Gonghe basin based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method

Gonghe Basin belongs to arid and semi-arid climatic zone, where water resource is relatively scarce and desertification is serious, so it is necessary to find out water resources carrying capacity. By using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the assessment on water resources carrying capacity in Gonghe Basin was conducted: Water resource carrying capacity of Gonghe County is less, while that of Guinan County and Chaka Town of Wulan County are greater; water resources of Gonghe Basin could sustain cultivated land of 652.6 thousand acres and grassland of 2 368.6 thousand acres respectively in 2020, water resources of Gonghe Basin could sustain cultivated land of 948.2 thousand acres and grassland of 2 247.6 thousand acres respectively in 2030.

Evaluation on water resources carrying capacity of Changchun-Jilin Region

Based on such principles as sustainable development and ecological cycle, this paper evaluates the water resources carrying capacity(WCC) of Changchun-Jilin region using a population-economy-water resources correlation evaluation model built on the basis of WCC evaluation method as elaborated in the methodology of Functional Zoning of Population Development. Results show that the annual WCC of Changchun-Jilin region is able to support the population there, as a basic balance is struck between population and water resources. The incorporation of WCC into overall urban planning is one of the building blocks for sustainable city development with an advisable size.

Dynamic evaluation of water resources carrying capacity of the Dianchi Lake Basin in 2005-2015,based on DSPERM framework model and simulated annealing-projection pursuit model

With the intensi fed impact of human activities,most lakes have been severely disturbed and the lake ecosystem has been seriously damaged,which exerted a great impact on the living envi-ronment of human beings in the lake basins.The health of the lake ecosystem has gradually become one of the hot issues in recent years.In this study,the water resources carrying capacity(WRCC)was used to reveal the chain rel ationship between human activities and water environ-ment in the economic dewelopment of the Dianchi Lake Basin in Kunming City of China during 2005-2015.Specifically,we chose 25 ewaluation indicators related to the water environment and socialeconomic activities,classified them into six subsystems,Le,the driwing force subsystem(D),the water resources si tuation and consumption subsystem(S),the water resources pressure subsystem(P),the water environmental situation subsystem(E),the response subsystem(R),and the management subsystem(M),and built a comprehensive assessment system-DSPERM frame-work model.Si mulated annealing-projection pursuit model which reflects the structure or feature of high-dimensional data was adopted to calculate the WRCC of the Dianchi Lake Basin during 2005-2015 by weighting each evaluation indicator and each subsystem of the DSPERM frame work model.The resuls show that the WRCC of the Dlanchi Lake Basin was in level II(medium carying capacity)from 2005 to 2012.Since 2013,the WRCC has been at level II(strong carying capacity),and from 2005 to 2015,it showed a gradual upward trend.The evaluation indicators of each subsystem varied greatly and exhibited different development trends.The indicators of the water resources pressure subsystem had the greatest impact on the WRCC,followed by the in-dicators of the water environmental si tuation subsystem and the water resources situation and consumption subsystem.We recommend that the DSPERM framework model and the simulated anneal ing-projection pursuit model constructed in this work can be used to analyze the dynamic changes of the WRCC over the years.They have the advantages of practicability and feasibilty,and can provide the basis for the scienti fic decision-making and comprehensive management of regional water environment planning.

An assessment of the carrying capacity of groundwater resources in North China Plain region–Analysis of potential for development

Over-exploitation of groundwater in North China Plain(NCP) has resulted in a series of eco-environment problems. Sustainable use of groundwater resources in NCP, in particular management of groundwater resource carrying capacity(GRCC), faces an unprecedented challenge. Here we define GRCC, and a new assessment method is tentatively proposed and applied to evaluate GRCC based on the whole NCP, city administrative units and county administrative units. Our study divided the NCP into three zones, i.e. non-overexploited non-overloaded zone(NNZ), overexploited but non-overloaded zone(ONZ), and overexploited overloaded zone(OOZ). Results confirmed 27.6% of counties belonged to NNZ. However, 58.9% of counties and NCP as a whole belonged to ONZ, and 13.5% of counties belonged to OOZ. Spatially, NNZs were mainly distributed in Beijing, parts of eastern coastal cities and Henan Province. OOZs were mostly distributed in middle-eastern part of Cangzhou, parts of Dezhou, Tianjin and Binzhou, and the remaining areas belonged to ONZs. We suggest two approaches for enhancing GRCC, i) increasing the amount of available groundwater and ii) improving the water use efficiency. An increase of 11.0 billion cubic meters to the available groundwater levels combined with water use efficiency improvements up to 479 CNY per cubic meter of the world mean, the gross domestic product(GDP) sustained by groundwater in the NCP could reach 11.1 trillion CNY and maintain a 20 years of GDP development assuming the current rate of growth.

Analysis of the Concept of Environmental Carrying Capacity

From the concept of carrying capacity proposed in the early 20th century to as an important tool for describing development constraints in the 21st century,many scholars have conducted extensive and detailed research on carrying capacity at different levels,but the carrying capacity system has not yet formed a unified theoretical and methodological system.By summarizing and analyzing the existing literature,based on the viewpoints of Mr.Gao Jixi and Mr.Zeng Weihua,the relationship between different mainstream carrying capacities is analyzed,and finally a system for summarizing the elements of different carrying capacities is provided,which to some extent serves as a reference for scholars who have just come into contact with the concept of carrying capacity.It is thought that:①the research on ecological carrying capacity covers the scope of cities,and the research at the urban level complements the neglected and insufficient areas of ecological research.②The main difference among ecological carrying capacity,urban comprehensive carrying capacity and resource environment carrying capacity lies in the different research scopes.In the mainstream view,environmental carrying capacity and resource carrying capacity are summarized under the framework of different research scopes.Water environment carrying capacity,land resource carrying capacity and other single factor carrying capacity are special in-depth studies of environment and resource carrying capacity.③Ecological carrying capacity at the ecological level includes environmental carrying capacity and resource carrying capacity.At the urban level,urban ecology is equivalent to urban environment to a certain extent,and resources can be classified into urban environmental carrying capacity as an environmental element.

Exploration of the dynamic water resource carrying capacity of the Keriya River Basin on the southern margin of the Taklimakan Desert,China

The water resource carrying capacity(WRCC)in river basin changes dynamically under climate change,economic development,and technological advancement.Climate change affects hydrological processes and spatial/temporal distribution of water resources;while economic develo-ment and technological advancement can also affect the balance of water resources systems.Under climate change,economic development,and technological advancement,itis of great significance to explore the dynamic behavior of WRCC in river basins.This will help to alleviate water resources security issues and build a sustainable water resources system.This study was carried out to evaluate the dynamic WRCC using the"climate,economics,and technology-control objective inversion mode",which used total water consumption,water-use efficiency,and restrained total pollutant control in the water functional area as boundary conditions.This study was conducted on the Keriya River Basin,a sub-catchment located in southem margin of the Taklimakan Desert.The WRCC in the Keriya River Basin in 2015 was calculated,and the trends in the short term(2020),middle tem(2030),and long term(2050)were predicted.The results revealed that climate change factors have a positive effect on WRCC in the Keriya River Basin,which leads to an increase in total water resources.Economic and technological development exhibits an overall positive effect,while increasing in water consumption and sewage discharge exhibit a negative effect.

基于向量夹角余弦的喀斯特地区水资源承载力评价(英文)

[Objective] The research aimed to assess the water resources carrying capacity in Guizhou Province based on the cosine vector included angle method. [Method] By using the cosine vector included angle method, the index weight was determined. The projection value of water resources carrying capacity in Guizhou Province was counted by using the multi-objective gray relational projection method. Moreover, the projection value which was counted by the index weight determined by the mean-variance method was as the control. [Result] The projection values which were obtained by two kinds of methods were very close, and the ordering result was consistent. [Conclusion] In the assessment of water resources carrying capacity, it was feasible to use the cosine vector included angle method to determine the index weight.

Land development suitability analysis for transport planning evaluation and optimization in mountainous ecological region

Transportation planning is a critical component for creating an orderly,intensive,and sustainable pattern of land development.By comprehensively considering the potential and suitability of transport construction,a comprehensive method combining resources and environmental carrying capacity(RECC)and land development suitability(LDS)was developed by using techniques of GIS,analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and threedimensional magic cube.Taking Aba prefecture in Sichuan Province of Southwest China as a case study,LDS for transportation was analyzed from three aspects,including overall planning layout,different transport modes,and transportation projects.The results showed that the transport planning scales of most counties in Aba were suitable,and the order of LDS of different transport modes was railway>highway=superhighway>tourism track,which already included 42 new transportation projects.We found that two counties(Maoxian County and Jiuzhaigou County)should improve the ecological protection level of transportation,in which the railway network construction should be encouraged,and some transportation projects with low LDS should be postponed or constructed harmlessly.We suggest the combination of RECC and LDS for transportation could enhance the territorial space optimization and sustainable transport construction.

Assessment of Geological Security and Integrated Assessment Geo-environmental Suitability in Worst-hit Areas in Wenchuan Quake

The Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 and geo-hazards triggered by the earthquake caused large injuries and deaths as well as destructive damage for infrastructures like construction, traffic and electricity. It is urgent to select relatively secure areas for townships and cities constructed in high mountainous regions with high magnitude earthquakes. This paper presents the basic thoughts, evaluation indices and evaluation methods of geological security evaluation, water and land resources security demonstration and integrated assessments of geo-environmental suitability for reconstruction in alp and ravine with high magnitude earthquakes, which are applied in the worst-hit areas （12 counties）. The integrated assessment shows that： （1） located in the Longmenshan fault zone, the evaluated area is of poor regional crust stability, in which the unstable and second unstable areas account for 79% of the total; （2） the geo-hazards susceptibility is high in the evaluation area. The spots of geo-hazards triggered by earthquake are mainly distributed along the active fault zone with higher distribution in the moderate and high mountains area, in which the areas of high and moderate susceptibility zoning accounts for 40.1% of the total; （3） geological security is poor in the evaluated area, in which the area of the unsuitable construction occupies 73.1%, whereas in the suitable construction area, the areas of geological security, second security and insecurity zoning account for 8.3 %, 9.3% and 9.3 % of the evaluated area respectively; （4） geo-environmentai suitability is poor in the evaluated area, in which the areas of suitability and basic suitability zoning account for 3.5% and 7.3% of the whole evaluation area.

The theory and method research on the double evaluation of land and space:A survey

By reviewing the theories and methods of resource and environmental carrying capacity evaluation and suitability evaluation of land and space development,it provides theoretical and technical support for rational layout and optimization of land and space development pattern.From the aspects of resource carrying capacity,environmental carrying capacity,the importance of ecological protection,the suitability of agricultural production,and the suitability of urban construction,we sort out domestic and foreign documents.The evaluation of resource carrying capacity has changed from single-factor evaluation to multi-factor comprehensive evaluation.At present,the optimization of land use pattern based on the“three-generation”space is still under exploration,it is not enough to systematize and summarize the thought of optimizing the spatial pattern of the national territory.The theoretical framework,model,method and index of“dual evaluation”of territorial space need to be improved continuously,it also needs the scientific analysis and cognition from the natural direction to the human location direction and the spatial equilibrium state as the new driving force.

基于水资源承载力的中亚水资源可持续利用评价

Situated in the hinterland of Eurasia,Central Asia is characterized by an arid climate and sparse rainfall.The uneven spatial distribution of water and land resources across the region has pressured economic and social development.An accurate understanding of Central Asia’s water resources carrying capacity(WRCC)is vital for enhancing the sustainability of water resources utilization and guiding regional economic and social activities.This study aims to facilitate the sustainability of water resources utilization by evaluating the region’s WRCC from the viewpoints of economic and technological conditions and social welfare.A concise yet effective model with relatively fewer parameters was established by adopting water resources data from the Food and Agriculture Organization(FAO)and socioeconomic data from the World Bank.The results indicated that the WRCC of all five Central Asian countries showed an increasing trend with improved water use efficiency from 1995 to 2020.Kazakhstan’s WRCC was significantly higher than the other four countries,reaching 54.03 million people in 2020.The water resources carrying index(WRCI)of the five Central Asian countries varied considerably,with the actual population sizes of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan highly overloaded.Although there has been a decrease in Central Asian countries’WRCI between 1995 and 2020,water resources utilization problems in the region remain prominent.Based on the water resources carrying capacity evaluation system,to increase available water resources and improve production water use efficiency are key to address these issues.In light of this,this study offers practical and feasible solutions at the policy level:(1)The implementation of signed multilateral agreements on transboundary water resources allocation must proceed through joint governmental efforts.(2)Investments in advancing science and technology need to be increased to improve water use efficiency in irrigation systems.(3)The output of water-intensive crops should be reduced.(4)The industrial structure could be further optimized so that non-agricultural uses are the primary drivers of gross domestic product(GDP)growth.

Evaluation, simulation, and optimization of land use spatial patterns for high-quality development: A case study of Zhengzhou city, China

High-intensity land use and resource overloaded-induced regional land use spatial pattern(LUSP)are essential and challenging for high-quality development.The empirical studies have shown that a scientific land uses spatial layout,and the supporting system should be based on a historical perspective and require better considering the double influence between the current characteristics and future dynamics.This study proposes a comprehensive framework that integrates the resource environment carrying capacity(RECC)and land use change(LUC)to investigate strategies for optimizing the spatial pattern of land use for high-quality development.China’s Zhengzhou city was the subject of a case study whose datasets include remote sensing,spatial monitoring,statistics,and open sources.Three significant results emerged from the analysis:(1)The RECC has significant spatial differentiation but does not follow a specific spatial law,and regions with relatively perfect ecosystems may not necessarily have better RECC.(2)From 2020 to 2030,the construction land and farmland will fluctuate wildly,with the former increasing by 346.21 km^(2) and the latter decreasing by 295.98 km^(2).(3)The study area is divided into five zones,including resource conservation,ecological carrying,living core,suitable construction,and grain supply zones,and each one has its LUSP optimization orientation.This uneven distribution of RECC reflects functional defects in the development and utilization of LUSP.In addition,the increase in construction land and the sharp decline of farmland pose potential threats to the sustainable development of the study area.Hence,these two elements cannot be ignored in the future high-quality development process.The findings indicate that the LUSP optimization based on dual dimensions of RECC and LUC is more realistic than a single-dimension solution,exhibiting the LUSP optimization’s effectiveness and applicability.

资源环境承载力综合评价方法在西藏产业结构调整中的应用

With the degradation of natural resources and environment caused by industrial development in some developing countries,the requirement of implementing a“social ecological”approach to development is imminent.Resource and environment carrying capacity provides a means of assessing regional development potential by measuring regional sustainable development in terms of economy,population and resources&environment.This study develops a conceptual framework for resource and environment carrying capacity estimation to support the co-development planning of industries,population and resources&environment.First,the framework constructs an index system for evaluating importance of industry or influence based on the role of industry played in the local socio-economic system.Then,the framework computes the quantitative relations through the importance of local industry,population size and resource utilization and environment effects,and subsequently estimates the resource and environment carrying capacity of the study area.With a particular attention to its land resources,water resources and environment,the Tibet case study shows that:the non-ferrous metal mining,tourism,liquor and refined tea industries play a pillar role in the Tibet’s socio-economic system;under each industrial structure,land resource carrying capacity is the weakest,and water resources carrying capacity is the strongest;to focus on tourism will improve local resource and environment carrying capacity.The research results provide a solid guide for Tibet government’s co-actions in industrial restructuring,ecological protection,and the pursuit of economic development.This study will contribute to bridge the gap between theoretical research and practical applications of resource and environment carrying capacity,and help local governments plan the regional“socio-ecological”sustainable development.

资源环境约束下中国经济增长可持续性模拟

Since the implementation of the economic reform and opening up policy in 1978,China has miraculously created long-term high-speed economic growth,but has also had to face the problem of excessive consumption of resources as well as an intensification of environmental pollution.As a result,China is now facing a slowdown in development.China must maintain a certain speed of development to realize its goal of being a powerful nation,and becoming a developed country by 2050.To this end,China is facing a transformation of its economic development.There is a need to agree on an expected economic growth rate,along with the corresponding development modes or means of regulation in the medium-and long-term periods.This study developed a systematic-dynamic model to simulate the coupling relationship between economic growth,development modes,and the environmental supply system,and explored the possible options for future economic growth as well as the resource use and environmental protection requirements(the main factors).The results showed that to achieve the development goal of becoming a developed country by 2050,while maintaining a good ecological environment,the suitable growth rate for China's economy is 3.8%–6.3%.Within this range,a growth rate of 3.8%–4.4%was found to be relatively safe,while a growth rate of 4.4%–6.3%required further technical progress.This study provides an early warning in regard to China's environmental and development status.The study was a response to the"Future Earth"framework document and,in terms of development speed,it developed a theoretical system for the determination of resource and environmental carrying capacity(RECC).