Fast solution to the free return orbit's reachable domain of the manned lunar mission by deep neural network

It is important to calculate the reachable domain(RD)of the manned lunar mission to evaluate whether a lunar landing site could be reached by the spacecraft. In this paper, the RD of free return orbits is quickly evaluated and calculated via the classification and regression neural networks. An efficient databasegeneration method is developed for obtaining eight types of free return orbits and then the RD is defined by the orbit’s inclination and right ascension of ascending node(RAAN) at the perilune. A classify neural network and a regression network are trained respectively. The former is built for classifying the type of the RD, and the latter is built for calculating the inclination and RAAN of the RD. The simulation results show that two neural networks are well trained. The classification model has an accuracy of more than 99% and the mean square error of the regression model is less than 0.01°on the test set. Moreover, a serial strategy is proposed to combine the two surrogate models and a recognition tool is built to evaluate whether a lunar site could be reached. The proposed deep learning method shows the superiority in computation efficiency compared with the traditional double two-body model.

A novel predictor of unsustained return of spontaneous circulation in cardiac arrest patients through a combination of capnography and pulse oximetry: a multicenter observational study

BACKGROUND:Unsustained return of spontaneous circulation(ROSC)is a critical barrier to survival in cardiac arrest patients.This study examined whether end-tidal carbon dioxide(ETCO_(2))and pulse oximetry photoplethysmogram(POP)parameters can be used to identify unsustained ROSC.METHODS:We conducted a multicenter observational prospective cohort study of consecutive patients with cardiac arrest from 2013 to 2014.Patients’general information,ETCO_(2),and POP parameters were collected and statistically analyzed.RESULTS:The included 105 ROSC episodes(from 80 cardiac arrest patients)comprised 51 sustained ROSC episodes and 54 unsustained ROSC episodes.The 24-hour survival rate was significantly higher in the sustained ROSC group than in the unsustained ROSC group(29.2%vs.9.4%,P<0.05).The logistic regression analysis showed that the difference between after and before ROSC in ETCO_(2)(ΔETCO_(2))and the difference between after and before ROCS in area under the curve of POP(ΔAUCp)were independently associated with sustained ROSC(odds ratio[OR]=0.931,95%confi dence interval[95%CI]0.881-0.984,P=0.011 and OR=0.998,95%CI 0.997-0.999,P<0.001).The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ofΔETCO_(2),ΔAUCp,and the combination of both to predict unsustained ROSC were 0.752(95%CI 0.660-0.844),0.883(95%CI 0.818-0.948),and 0.902(95%CI 0.842-0.962),respectively.CONCLUSION:Patients with unsustained ROSC have a poor prognosis.The combination ofΔETCO_(2) andΔAUCp showed signifi cant predictive value for unsustained ROSC.

Increased number of symptoms during the acute phase of SARS-CoV-2 infection in athletes is associated with prolonged time to return to full sports performance—AWAREⅧ

Purpose The aim of the study was to identify factors associated with prolonged time to return to full performance(RTFP)in athletes with recent severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2)infection.Methods Prospective cohort study with cross sectional analysis.A total of 84 athletes with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection assessed at a coronavirus disease 2019 recovery clinic gave a history of age,sex,type/level of sport,co-morbidities,pre-infection training hours,and 26 acute SARS-CoV-2 symptoms from 3 categories(“nose and throat”,“chest and neck”,and“whole body”/systemic).Data on days to RTFP were obtained by structured interviews.Factors associated with RTFP were demographics,sport participation,history of co-morbidities,pre-infection training history,and acute symptoms(type,number).Outcomes were:(a)days to RTFP(median,interquartile range(IQR))in asymptomatic(n=7)and symptomatic athletes(n=77),and(b)hazard ratios(HRs;95%confidence interval)for symptomatic athletes with vs.without a factor(univariate,multiple models).HR<1 was predictive of higher percentage chance of prolonged RTFP.Significance was p<0.05.Results Days to RTFP were 30 days(IQR:23–40)for asymptomatic and 64 days(IQR:42–91)for symptomatic participants(p>0.05).Factors associated with prolonged RTFP(univariate models)were:females(HR=0.57;p=0.014),endurance athletes(HR=0.41;p<0.0001),co-morbidity number(HR=0.75;p=0.001),and respiratory disease history(HR=0.54;p=0.026).In symptomatic athletes,prolonged RTFP(multiple models)was significantly associated with increased“chest and neck”(HR=0.85;p=0.017)and“nose and throat”(HR=0.84;p=0.013)symptoms,but the association was more profound between prolonged RFTP and increased total number of“all symptoms”(HR=0.91;p=0.001)and“whole body”/systemic(HR=0.82;p=0.007)symptoms.Conclusion A larger number of total symptoms and specifically“whole body”/systemic symptoms during the acute phase of SARS-CoV-2 infection in athletes is associated with prolonged RTFP.

Gut microbiota affects the estrus return of sows by regulating the metabolism of sex steroid hormones

Background Sex hormones play important roles in the estrus return of post-weaning sows.Previous studies have demonstrated a complex and bi-directional regulation between sex hormones and gut microbiota.However,the extent to which the gut microbiota affects estrus return of post-weaning sows is largely unknown.Results In this study,we first screened 207 fecal samples from well-phenotyped sows by 16S rRNA gene sequencing and identified significant associations between microbes and estrus return of post-weaning sows.Using metagenomic sequencing data from 85 fecal samples,we identified 37 bacterial species that were significantly associated with estrus return.Normally returning sows were characterized by increased abundances of L.reuteri and P.copri and decreased abundances of B.fragilis,S.suis,and B.pseudolongum.The changes in gut microbial composition significantly altered the functional capacity of steroid hormone biosynthesis in the gut microbiome.The results were confirmed in a validation cohort.Significant changes in sex steroid hormones and related compounds were found between normal and non-return sows via metabolome analysis.An integrated analysis of differential bacterial species,metagenome,and fecal metabolome provided evidence that normal return-associated bacterial species L.reuteri and Prevotella spp.participated in the degradation of pregnenolone,progesterone,and testosterone,thereby promoting estrogen biosynthesis.Furthermore,the microbial metabolites related to sow energy and nutrient supply or metabolic disorders also showed relationships with sow estrus return.Conclusions An integrated analysis of differentially abundant bacterial species,metagenome,and fecal metabolome revealed the involvement of L.reuteri and Prevotella spp.in sow estrus return.These findings provide deep insight into the role of gut microbiota in the estrus return of post-weaning sows and the complex cross-talk between gut microbiota and sex hormones,suggesting that the manipulation of the gut microbiota could be an effective strategy to improve sow estrus return after weaning.

Early endotracheal intubation is not associated with the rate of return of spontaneous circulation following cardiac arrest at the emergency department:an exploratory analysis

Cardiac arrest poses a significant global public health challenge,manifesting in approximately 550,000 cases annually within the United States.[1]In-hospital cardiac arrest(IHCA)is commonly attributed to airways and respiratory issues.[2]Recommendations emphasize the expertise of responders in airway management.[3]Various options exist,such as chest compression-only cardiopulmonary resuscitation(CPR),bag-mask ventilation(BMV),and advanced airways.The BMV and advanced airways are not deemed equivalent or superior based on previous evidence.[4]Achieving consistency in choosing and timing the optimal airway approach during IHCA is crucial.The current American Heart Association guidelines suggest an advanced airway strategy when endotracheal intubation(ETI)success rates are high,but the optimal time for advanced airway management remains unclear.[5]Wong et al[6]revealed that survival improved by less than 5 min with advanced airway management.According to a subgroup analysis of IHCA patients in emergency departments(EDs),early intubation was associated with a 1.5-fold greater rate of return of spontaneous circulation(ROSC)than in other locations.[7]ED patients’constant monitoring and immediate management,with readily available intubation equipment,enhance early intubation and survival rates.[6]Nonetheless,IHCA patients intubated within the first 15 min had a lower ROSC rate.

Eight of ten patients return to daily activities, work, and sports after total knee arthroplasty

BACKGROUND Besides return to work(RTW)and return to sports(RTS),patients also prefer to return to daily activities(RTA)such as walking,sleeping,grocery shopping,and domestic work following total knee arthroplasty(TKA).However,evidence on the timelines and probability of patients’RTA is sparse.AIM To assess the percentage of patients able to RTA,RTW,and RTS after TKA,as well as the timeframe and influencing factors of this return.METHODS A retrospective cohort study with prospectively collected data was conducted at a medium-sized Dutch orthopedic hospital.Assessments of RTA,RTW,and RTS were performed at 3 mo and/or 6 mo following TKA.Investigated factors en-compassed patient characteristics,surgical characteristics,and preoperative patient-reported outcomes.RESULTS TKA patients[n=2063;66 years old(interquartile range[IQR]:7 years);47%male;28 kg/m2(IQR:4 kg/m2)]showed RTA ranging from 28%for kneeling to 94%for grocery shopping,with 20 d(IQR:27 d)spent for putting on shoes to 74 d(IQR:57 d)for kneeling.RTW rates varied from 62%for medium-impact work to 87%for low-impact work,taking 33 d(IQR:29 d)to 78 d(IQR:55 d).RTS ranged from 48%for medium-impact sports to 90%for low-impact sports,occurring within 43 d(IQR:24 d)to 90 d(IQR:60 d).One or more of the investigated factors influenced the return to each of the 14 activities examined,with R²values ranging from 0.013 to 0.127.CONCLUSION Approximately 80%of patients can RTA,RTW,and RTS within 6 mo after TKA.Return is not consistently in-fluenced by predictive factors.Results help set realistic pre-and postoperative expectations.

Influencing Factors and Prediction of Risk of Returning to Ecological Poverty in Liupan Mountain Region,China

China has resolved its overall regional poverty in 2020 by attaining moderate societal prosperity.The country has entered a new development stage designed to achieve its second centenary goal.However,ecological fragility and risk susceptibility have increased the risk of returning to ecological poverty.In this paper,the Liupan Mountain Region of China was used as a case study,and the counties were used as the scale to reveal the spatiotempora differentiation and influcing factors of the risk of returning to poverty in study area.The indicator data for returning to ecological poverty from 2011-2020 were collected and summarized in three dimensions:ecological,economic and social.The autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA)time series and exponential smoothing method(ES)were used to predict the multidimensional indicators of returning to ecological poverty for 61 counties(districts)in the Liupan Mountain Region for 2021-2030.The back propagation neural network(BPNN)and geographic information system(GIS)were used to generate the spatial distribution and time variation for the index of the risk of returning to ecological poverty(RREP index).The results show that 1)ecological factors were the main factors in the risk of returning to ecological poverty in Liupan Mountain Region.2)The RREP index for the 61 counties(districts)exhibited a downward trend from 2021-2030.The RREP index declined more in medium-and high-risk areas than in low-risk areas.From 2021 to 2025,the RREP index exhibited a slight downward trend.From 2026 to2030,the RREP index was expected to decline faster,especially from 2029-2030.3)Based on the RREP index,it can be roughly divided into three types,namely,the high-risk areas,the medium-risk areas,and the low-risk areas.The natural resource conditions in lowrisk areas of returning to ecological poverty,were better than those in medium-and high-risk areas.

Exploring influences and risk of bias of studies on return to sport and work after lateral ankle sprain:A systematic review and metaanalysis

BACKGROUND Lateral ankle sprains are the most common traumatic musculoskeletal injuries of the lower extremity,with an incidence rate of 15%-20%.The high incidence and prevalence highlights the economic impact of this injury.Ankle sprains lead to a high socioeconomic burden due to the combination of the high injury incidence and high medical expenses.Up to 40%of patients who suffer from an ankle sprain develop chronic ankle instability.Chronic instability can lead to prolonged periods of pain,immobility and injury recurrence.Identification of factors that influence return to work(RTW)and return to sports(RTS)after a lateral ankle sprain(LAS)may help seriously reduce healthcare costs.AIM To explore which factors may potentially affect RTW and RTS after sustaining an LAS.METHODS EMBASE and PubMed were systematically searched for relevant studies published until June 2023.Inclusion criteria were as follows:(1)Injury including LAS or chronic ankle instability;(2)Described any form of treatment;(3)Assessment of RTW or RTS;(4)Studies published in English;and(5)Study designs including randomized controlled clinical trials,clinical trials or cohort studies.Exclusion criteria were:(1)Studies involving children(age<16 year);or(2)Patients with concomitant ankle injury besides lateral ankle ligament damage.A quality assessment was performed for each of the included studies using established risk of bias tools.Additionally quality of evidence was assessed using the GRADEpro tool in cases where outcomes were included in the quantitative analysis.A best evidence synthesis was performed in cases of qualitative outcome analysis.For all studied outcomes suitable for quantitative analysis a forest plot was created to calculate the effect on RTW and RTS.RESULTS A total of 8904 patients were included in 21 studies,10 randomized controlled trials,7 retrospective cohort studies and 4 prospective cohort studies.Fifteen studies were eligible for meta-analysis.The overall RTS rate ranged were 80%and 83%in the all treatments pool and surgical treatments pool,respectively.The pooled mean days to RTS ranged from 23-93 d.The overall RTW rate was 89%.The pooled mean time to RTW ranged from 5.8-8.1 d.For patients with chronic ankle instability,higher preoperative motivation was the sole factor significantly and independently(P=0.001)associated with the rate of and time to RTS following ligament repair or reconstruction.Higher body mass index was identified as a significant factor(P=0.04)linked to not resuming sports or returning at a lower level(median 24,range 20-37),compared to those who resumed at the same or higher level(median 23,range 17-38).Patients with a history of psychological illness or brain injury,experienced a delay in their rehabilitation process for sprains with fractures and unspecified sprains.The extent of the delayed rehabilitation was directly proportional to the increased likelihood of experiencing a recurrence of the ankle sprain and the number of ankle-related medical visits.We also observed that 10%of athletes who did return to sport after lateral ankle sprain without fractures described non-ankle-related reasons for not returning.CONCLUSION All treatments yielded comparable results,with each treatment potentially offering unique advantages or benefits.Preoperative motivation may influence rehabilitation after LAS.Grading which factor had a greater impact was not possible due to the lack of comparability among the included patients.

Exploring the Relationship Between Patent Forward Citation and Stock Return Rate Using Empirical Data of China Stock Market

A novel indicator called price-citation was proposed.Based on the company integrated patent database of China listed companies of common stocks(A-shares)with the stock price and the stock return rate data,more than two thousand of A-shares from 2017 to 2020 were selected.The effect of the traditional patent forward citation and the price-citation for discriminating the stock return rate was thoroughly analyzed via ANOVA.The A-shares of forward citation counts above the average showed higher stock return rate means than the A-shares having patents but receiving no forward citations.The price-citation,combining both the financial and patent attributes,defined as the multiplication of the current stock price and the currently receiving forward citation count,showed its excellence in discriminating the stock return rate.The A-shares of higher price-citation showed significantly higher stock return rate means while the A-shares of lower price-citation showed significantly lowest stock return rate means.The price-citation effect had not been changed by COVID-19 though COVID-19 affected the social and economic environment to a considerable extent in 2020.

China's New Proposal of Returning Lost Cultural Objects Earns International Support Milestone in New Era

China launched a recommendation for the protection and return of cultural objects removed from colonial contexts or acquired by other unjustifiable or unethical means,winning a big applause from many countries which are seeking for more cooperation in solving this serious problem.

Analyzing the Impacts on East Asia of Trump’s Potential Return

The 2024 election is a pivotal and highly contested event in the United States.Donald Trump is expected to compete against Joe Biden without any doubts.A potential return of Trump to the White House would likely cause significant reactions in East Asia,particularly among the three major countries in the region.This analysis will explore the detailed implications of Trump’s return.

The Misdirection and Return of Graduate Course Teaching

Graduate course teaching plays an irreplaceable role in knowledge mastery,skill enhancement,and quality cultivation of graduate students.This paper addresses current issues in graduate course teaching,such as ambiguous objectives,formulaic content,formalistic operation,and oversimplified evaluation.It proposes corresponding solutions with the hope of steering graduate course teaching back to its original purpose and realizing its true significance.

Chang’e-6 Returns with Samples from Far Side of Moon

At 2:07 pm GMT+8 on June 25,2024,the returner of Chang’e-6,China’s lunar detector,touched down on the ground surface of the preset landing site in Inner Mongolia of China.Onboard were samples first-ever collected from the far side of the Moon,the mysterious kingdom that had resisted visits from the human world.This soft landing has thus crowned the high-profile mission with a complete success.

Litter Productivity and Nutrient Return Characteristics of Three Typical Forest Stands in Golden Mountain

Objective: The paper aims to analyze the dynamic characteristics of litter production and nutrient return of the forest ecosystems in subtropical areas, and provide a theoretical basis for the nutrient cycling study in southwest Hubei Province and carbon sink function of the whole forest ecosystem. Methods: Three typical forest stands (Chinese fir plantation, Cryptomeria fortunei plantation and evergreen and deciduous broad-leaved mixed forest) in Golden Mountain Forest Farm in southwest Hubei Province were investigated and monitored continuously for the litter types and productivity and nutrient return. Results: The annual litter productivity of the three forest stands ranged from 161.77 to 396.26 kg·hm-2;Litters of branches, leaves and reproductive organs accounted for 14.14% - 20.85%, 33.26% - 78.33%, 7.52% - 42.18% of the total, respectively;The litter productivity and total litter productivity of each composition in the three forest stands show unimodal or bimodal changes over months, and the total litter productivity reached the highest value in January, April and October respectively. For different nutrient contents of the three forest stands, the common feature is C > N. The order of nutrient return amount from greatest to least is evergreen and deciduous broad-leaved mixed forest, Cryptomeria fortunei plantation and Chinese fir plantation. For different nutrient return amounts, the common feature is C > N, and the nutrient return amounts are 76.51-180.69 kg·hm-2 and 2.3 - 5.71 kg·hm-2 respectively. Conclusion: The annual litter productivity and nutrient return amount of the evergreen and deciduous broad-leaved mixed forest are the highest among the three forest stands. Therefore, protecting the evergreen and deciduous broad-leaved mixed forest and studying the litter changes of Chinese fir plantation and Cryptomeria fortunei plantation are of far-reaching significance for the development of sustainable forest management in this region and the further improvement of the carbon sequestration function of the whole forest ecosystem.

Return to work in young and middle-aged colorectal cancer survivors:Factors influencing self-efficacy,fear,resilience,and financial toxicity

BACKGROUND Return to work(RTW)serves as an indication for young and middle-aged colorectal cancer(CRC)survivors to resume their normal social lives.However,these survivors encounter significant challenges during their RTW process.Hence,scientific research is necessary to explore the barriers and facilitating factors of returning to work for young and middle-aged CRC survivors.AIM To examine the current RTW status among young and middle-aged CRC survivors and to analyze the impact of RTW self-efficacy(RTW-SE),fear of progression(FoP),eHealth literacy(eHL),family resilience(FR),and financial toxicity(FT)on their RTW outcomes.METHODS A cross-sectional investigation was adopted in this study.From September 2022 to February 2023,a total of 209 participants were recruited through a convenience sampling method from the gastrointestinal surgery department of a class A tertiary hospital in Chongqing.The investigation utilized a general information questionnaire alongside scales assessing RTW-SE,FoP,eHL,FR,and FT.To analyze the factors that influence RTW outcomes among young and middle-aged CRC survivors,Cox regression modeling and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis were used.RESULTS A total of 43.54%of the participants successfully returned to work,with an average RTW time of 100 days.Cox regression univariate analysis revealed that RTW-SE,FoP,eHL,FR,and FT were significantly different between the non-RTW and RTW groups(P<0.05).Furthermore,Cox regression multivariate analysis identified per capita family monthly income,job type,RTW-SE,and FR as independent influencing factors for RTW(P<0.05).CONCLUSION The RTW rate requires further improvement.Elevated levels of RTW-SE and FR were found to significantly increase RTW among young and middle-aged CRC survivors.Health professionals should focus on modifiable factors,such as RTW-SE and FR,to design targeted RTW support programs,thereby facilitating their timely reintegration into mainstream society.

Effect of Direct-seeding with Non-flooding and Wheat Residue Returning Patterns on Greenhouse Gas Emission from Rice Paddy

[Objective] This study aimed to investigate the effect of direct-seeding with non-flooding and wheat residue returning patterns on greenhouse gas emission from rice paddy. [Method] Two rice cultivars currently used in the production, Yangdao 6 （an indica） and Yangjing 4038 （a japonica）, were field grown using a direct-seeding method, and four treatments, wheat straw incorporation into soil and traditional flooding （SlF）, non-flooding and wheat straw mulching （NSM）, non-flooding and wheat straw incorporation into soil （NSl） and traditional flooding （no straw returned, Control, TF）, were imposed after sowing to maturity. Effects of direct-seeding with non-flooding and wheat residue returning patterns on CH4, N20 and CO2 emissions were investigated by using the method of static chamber-gas chromatographic tech- niques. [Result] Grain yield showed no significant difference between non-flooding and flooding treatments, but was significantly higher under the SlF than under any other treatments. The emission flux of CH4 and CO2 under TF and SlF exhibited a single peak curve, while changed little under the NSl and NSM The emission flux of N2Oshowed multiple perk curves for all the treatments. Compared with TF, SlF significantly increased mean emission flux of CH4 or N2O, decreased emission of N20, while NSl and NSM significantly decreased the mean emission flux of OH4, and increased emission flux of N2O and CO2. SIF also increased Green Warm Potential （GWP） of CH4, N2O and CO2 and the GWP per unit grain yield by 47.3%- 53.7% and 32.2%-39.4%, respectively. Both NSl and NSM decreased GWP by 24.2%-29.6% and 30.1%-35.5%, and the GWP per unit grain yield was decreased by 21.7-27.2% and 25.6%-31.1%, respectively. [Conelusion] both NSl and NSM could significantly reduce greenhouse effect of CH4, N2O and CO2 meanwhile maintain a high grain yield.

Field Experiment for the Effects of Rice Straw Returning and Seeding Pattern on Wheat Seedling Emergence and Grain Yield

In order to study the effect of rice straw returning and seeding patterns on seedling emergence and grain yield, field experiment was conducted to investi- gate the effects of straw mechanized returning and different seeding patterns on e- mergence rate, emergence uniformity and yield traits of wheat after rice. The results were as follows： in rice straw removal treatments, the emergence rate of mechani- cal seeding in drill was lower than that of mechanical uniform planting and manual broadcast sowing, which were 51.84%, 90.89% and 88.87%, respectively; the emer- gence uniformity of manual broadcast sowing was inferior to mechanical seeding in drill and mechanical uniform planting, which were 0.49, 0.26 and 0.23, respectively. As for the treatments with rice straw returning to the field, the emergence rate and emergence uniformity all decreased in the three seeding patterns, of which mechan- ical seeding in drill dropped markedly with emergence rate decreased by 36.54%. The emergence rate and emergence uniformity affected grain yield by affecting pan- icle, grains per spike and 1 000-grain weight. The grain yield for the treatment with rice straw removal was 6 091.34 kg/hm2, while that with rice straw returning to field was 6 476.20 kg/hm2, and both were higher than the yields of the other two seed- ing patterns. Therefore, mechanical uniform planting was？recommended for its higher emergence rate, better emergence uniformity, which was conductive to increase grain yield in wheat after rice production with rice straw returning to field.

Effects of Straw Returning to Fields on Soils and Current Status in Anhui Province

In the research, effects of straw returning to fields on soil temperature, water, volume-weight, porosity, trace elements, and organic matters were reviewed and countermeasures were proposed to promote straw returning on basis of straw resources and present status in Anhui Province.

Environmental Effects of Returning Rice and Wheat Straw to Fields

Based on advances in returning rice and wheat straw to fields at home and abroad, environmental physical, chemical and ecological effects of returning rice and wheat straw to fields were analyzed. The results show that returning straw to fields can enhance soil porosity, reduce soil bulk density, and increase the ca- pacity of soil to preserve water, fertilizer and temperature. Besides, it can improve the content of organic matter, nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium in soil, of which the increase of potassium content is the most obvious. Meanwhile, it can provide energy and nutrients for microorganisms in soil and change the activity of soil enzymes, of which it affects invertase most greatly and enhances the activity of ure- ase but has no effect on neutral phosphatase. In addition, it can enhance the total quantity of microorganisms in soil obviously, and the increase correlates positively with the quantity of straw returning to fields. Finally, returning straw to fields can promote the sustainable development of agriculture.

Performance of bottleneck shifting for remanufacturing system considering returns' quality grading

Aimed at the remanufacturing system, the effect of the uncertainty of returns＇ quality on bottleneck shifting is investigated. A novel definition of bottleneck station is presented and the probability of a station becoming a bottleneck is also given. By calculating the effective output, the effective operation time （EOT） and the ratio of EOT of each station, the system＇s current bottleneck of effective output time is determined. By calculating the probability coefficient of variation and index of bottleneck shifting, the quantitative performance of bottleneck shifting is obtained. Discrete event simulation and the experiment design method are adopted to simulate the system, in which the proportion of quality grading, repair rates and process routes are considered. The case study shows that the uncertainty of returns＇ quality greatly increases the probability of bottleneck shifting, and with the increase of the discrete degree of the returns＇ repair rate, the bottleneck shifting phenomenon is more obvious. Furthermore, bottleneck shifting is closely related to the process route of the dominating returns＇ quality grade.