Low-Carbon Dispatch of an Integrated Energy System Considering Confidence Intervals for Renewable Energy Generation

Addressing the insufficiency in down-regulation leeway within integrated energy systems stemming from the erratic and volatile nature of wind and solar renewable energy generation,this study focuses on formulating a coordinated strategy involving the carbon capture unit of the integrated energy system and the resources on the load storage side.A scheduling model is devised that takes into account the confidence interval associated with renewable energy generation,with the overarching goal of optimizing the system for low-carbon operation.To begin with,an in-depth analysis is conducted on the temporal energy-shifting attributes and the low-carbon modulation mechanisms exhibited by the source-side carbon capture power plant within the context of integrated and adaptable operational paradigms.Drawing from this analysis,a model is devised to represent the adjustable resources on the charge-storage side,predicated on the principles of electro-thermal coupling within the energy system.Subsequently,the dissimilarities in the confidence intervals of renewable energy generation are considered,leading to the proposition of a flexible upper threshold for the confidence interval.Building on this,a low-carbon dispatch model is established for the integrated energy system,factoring in the margin allowed by the adjustable resources.In the final phase,a simulation is performed on a regional electric heating integrated energy system.This simulation seeks to assess the impact of source-load-storage coordination on the system’s low-carbon operation across various scenarios of reduction margin reserves.The findings underscore that the proactive scheduling model incorporating confidence interval considerations for reduction margin reserves effectively mitigates the uncertainties tied to renewable energy generation.Through harmonized orchestration of source,load,and storage elements,it expands the utilization scope for renewable energy,safeguards the economic efficiency of system operations under low-carbon emission conditions,and empirically validates the soundness and efficacy of the proposed approach.

The burden of upper motor neuron involvement is correlated with the bilateral limb involvement interval in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis:a retrospective observational study

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is a rare neurodegenerative disease characterized by the involvement of both upper and lower motor neurons.Early bilateral limb involvement significantly affects patients'daily lives and may lead them to be confined to bed.However,the effect of upper and lower motor neuron impairment and other risk factors on bilateral limb involvement is unclear.To address this issue,we retrospectively collected data from 586 amyotrophic lateral sclerosis patients with limb onset diagnosed at Peking University Third Hospital between January 2020 and May 2022.A univariate analysis revealed no significant differences in the time intervals of spread in different directions between individuals with upper motor neuron-dominant amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and those with classic amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.We used causal directed acyclic graphs for risk factor determination and Cox proportional hazards models to investigate the association between the duration of bilateral limb involvement and clinical baseline characteristics in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis patients.Multiple factor analyses revealed that higher upper motor neuron scores(hazard ratio[HR]=1.05,95%confidence interval[CI]=1.01–1.09,P=0.018),onset in the left limb(HR=0.72,95%CI=0.58–0.89,P=0.002),and a horizontal pattern of progression(HR=0.46,95%CI=0.37–0.58,P<0.001)were risk factors for a shorter interval until bilateral limb involvement.The results demonstrated that a greater degree of upper motor neuron involvement might cause contralateral limb involvement to progress more quickly in limb-onset amyotrophic lateral sclerosis patients.These findings may improve the management of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis patients with limb onset and the prediction of patient prognosis.

Left ventricular hypertrophy amplifies the QT,and Tp-e intervals and the Tp-e/QT ratio of left chest ECG

Objective： To evaluate the changes in Tp-e interval （an interval from the peak to the end of the T wave）, QT interval and Tp-e/QT ratio of the body surface ECG in patients with left ventricular hypertrophy （LVH）. Methods： The Tp-e interval and QT interval were measured on body surface ECGs in 42 patients without either hypertension or LVH （control group）, 41 patients having hypertension but not LVH （non-LVH group）, and 38 patients with both hypertension and LVH （LVH group）. Results： The mean corrected QT （QTc） interval, and mean corrected Tp-e[T（p-e）c] interval were significantly longer in the LVH group （0.430±0.021s vs. 0.409±0.019s, p 〈 0.01; 0.098±0.013s vs. 0.088±0.011s, respectively） than those in the control group. The Tp-e/QT ratio was also amplified in LVH group （0.232± 0.028 vs.0.218± 0.027） （p 〈 0.05）. Conclusion： LVH increased the QT interval, Tp-e interval and Tp-e/QT ratio of the body surface ECG.

Average recurrence intervals of strong earthquakes and potential risky segments along the Taiyuan-Linfen portion of the Shanxi graben system

Since the great 1303 Hongtong, Shanxi, earthquake of magnitude 8, 700 years have elapsed. To analyze the long-term seismic potential, this paper divides the Taiyuan-Linfen portion of the Shanxi graben system into 5 seismogenic segments. Based on data of historical earthquakes and GPS observation, the authors estimate mean seismic-moment rates and average recurrence intervals of strong earthquakes for the individual segments, and fur-ther analyze relative levels of current stress cumulation on the segments based on mapping b-values along the gra-ben system by using the network seismic data for the recent over 30 years. The main result shows that the Linfen basin segment has an estimated mean seismic-moment rate of 2.211016 Nm/a to 3.031016 Nm/a, and its average recurrence interval for M=7.5 earthquake is estimated to be between 1 560 and 2 140 years. For the Ling-shi-Hongtong segment, the estimated average recurrence interval for M=8 earthquakes is between 4 300 and 5 100 years, equivalent to having a mean moment-rate of 2.581016 Nm/a to 3.101016 Nm/a. The contour map of b-values shows that the two segments of Lingshi-Hongtong and Linfen basin have been being at low or relatively low stress levels, reflecting that since the 1303 M=8 and the 1695 M=7.5 earthquake ruptures, the fault-planes strengths of the both segments have not been resumed yet. And the other two segments, the Houma and the Jiexiu-Fenyang, have relatively high stress levels, and have been already identified as potential risky segments for the coming earthquakes from the analysis combining with the estimated average recurrence intervals of earth-quakes on the both segments.

Assessment of Impacts of Public Health Interventions on the SARS Epidemic in Beijing in Terms of the Intervals Between Its Symptom Onset, Hospital Admission, and Notification

Objectives To assess the impacts of public health interventions on the outbreak of SARS in Beijing by analyzing the intervals between symptom onset, hospital admission and notification of its cases. Methods Data of SARS cases reported from the Beijing Municipal Centers for Disease Prevention and Control (BCDC) were collected and analyzed by descriptive epidemiology. Results In the early epidemic period, the intervals between the disease onset and the hospital admission seemed irregular, so was the intervals between the hospital admission and the notification. After the middle ten days of April, the intervals turned out to be more regular, and the disordered situation in terms of the hospital admission and the case notification was gradually brought under control. Conclusions Public health interventions against SARS has revealed positive impacts on SARS control program in Beijing. The timing and sensitivity of epidemic information reporting systems has been greatly improved in Beijing as a result of successful fight against this disease.

Analysis of petrophysical cutoffs of reservoir intervals with production capacity and with accumulation capacity in clastic reservoirs

Methodologies have been developed for calculating cutoffs of reservoir intervals with production capacity （RIPC） and reservoir intervals with accumulation capacity （RIAC） according to the types of pore throat structures and dynamic force by using data from petrophysical analysis, production tests and mercury injection. The data are from clastic reservoirs in the third member （Es3） and the fourth member （Es4） of the Shahejie Formation in the Shengtuo area on the North Slope of the Dongying Sag, Jiyang Depression, China. The method of calculating cutoffs of RIPC is summarized as follows： 1） determination of permeability cutoffs of RIPC; 2） classification of types of pore-throat structures according to mercury injection data and then relating porosity to permeability and determining the relationship between porosity and permeability according to each type of pore-throat structure; and 3） calculating porosity cutoffs of RIPC using established correlation between porosity and permeability according to the type of pore throat structure. The method of calculating cutoffs of RIAC includes： 1） establishing a functional relationship between oil-water interracial tension and formation temperature; 2） calculating limiting values of maximum connected pore-throat radii according to formation temperature and dynamic forces of each reservoir interval; 3） correlating permeability with maximum connected pore-throat radius and then obtaining permeability cutoffs of RIAC; and 4） calculating porosity cutoffs on the basis of permeability cutoffs according to specific correlations, suitable for the type of porethroat structure. The results of this study show that porosity and permeability cutoffs of clastic reservoirs decrease with depth. For a fixed permeability cutoff, the porosity cutoff of R1PC varies because the type of pore throat is different. At a fixed temperature, porosity and permeability cutoffs of RIAC decrease as dynamic force increases. For a fixed permeability cutoff of effective hydrocarbon accumulation, the porosity cutoff also varies with different types of pore throat.

Multiple-target tracking with adaptive sampling intervals for phased-array radar

A novel adaptive sampling interval algorithm for multitarget tracking is presented. This algorithm which is based on interacting multiple models incorporates the grey relational grade （GRG） into the particle swarm optimization （PSO）. Firstly, the desired tracking accuracy is set for each target. Secondly, sampling intervals are selected as particles, and then the advantage of the GRG is taken as the measurement function for resource management. Meanwhile, the fitness value of the PSO is used to measure the difference between desired tracking accuracy and estimated tracking accuracy. Finally, it is suggested that the radar should track the target whose prediction value of the next sampling interval is the smallest. Simulations show that the proposed method improves both the tracking accuracy and tracking efficiency of the phased-array radar.

Rules for confidence intervals of permeability coefficients for water flow in over-broken rock mass

Based on the steady-state seepage method, we used the Mechanical Testing and Simulation 815.02 System and a self-designed seepage instrument for over-broken stone to measure seepage properties of water flows in three types of crushed rock samples. Three methods of confidence interval in describing permeability coefficients are presented: the secure interval, the calculated interval and the systemic interval. The lower bound of the secure interval can be applied to water-inrush and the upper bound can solve the problem of connectivity. For the calculated interval, as the axial pressure increases, the length of confidence interval is shortened and the upper and lower bounds are reduced. For the systemic interval, the length of its confidence interval, as well as the upper and lower bounds, clearly vary under low axial pressure but are fairly similar under high axial pressure. These three methods provide useful information and references for analyzing the permeability coefficient of over-broken rock.

A retrospective observational study on maintenance and complications of totally implantable venous access ports in 563 patients:Prolonged versus short flushing intervals

Objectives:To assess whether the extension of the flushing interval will increase risks of complications associated with totally implantable venous access port(TIVAP)in the off-treatment period.Methods:A retrospective single-center observational study was performed.Patients with a TIVAP in the off-treatment period that underwent regular flushing in our clinic were included.Data concerning patients and their TIVAPs were recorded.Patient baseline characteristics and TIVAP-related complications were analyzed.Continuous variables were analyzed by ANOVA or the Kruskal-Wallis H test.To compare the occurrence of TIVAP-related complications,the chi-square test was used;if needed,Fisher’s exact test was used.Results:Totally 607 patients were reviewed,and 563 patients were finally included.Thirteen complications were recorded,including 11 cases of catheter occlusion(1.95%),one case of port cannula rotation(0.18%),and one case of catheter tip malposition(0.18%).No device-related infection or venous thrombosis was recorded.Among these patients,the average flushing interval was 35.27±13.09 days.Patients were divided into three groups according to the flushing interval:every 28 days or less(Group 1,n=133);every 29-44 days(Group 2,n=350);and every 45 days or more(Group 3,n=80).No significant difference in catheter-related complications was found among the three groups(P>0.05).Conclusions:In the TIVAP off-treatment period,patients without any history of TIVAP-related complications during approximately one year can attempt to prolong the flushing interval to more than 4 weeks;we further suggest that 5-6 weeks may be an appropriate option for these patients.

Stationarity Intervals of Time-Variant Channel in High Speed Railway Scenario

The non-stationary behavior, caused by the train rmverrent, is the rmin factor for the variation of high speed railway channel. To measure the tirce-variant effect, the parameter of stationarity interval, in which the channel keeps constant or has no great change, is adopted based on Zhengzfiou- Xi＇an （Zhengxi） passenger dedicated line measurement with different train speeds. The stationarity interval is calculated through the definition of Local Region of Stationarity （LRS） under three train ve- locities. Furthermore, the time non-stationary characteristic of high speed pared with five standard railway channel is corn- Multiple-Input MultipleOutput （MIMO） channel models, i.e. Spatial Channel Model （SCM）, extended version of SCM （SCME）, Wireless World Initiative New Radio Phase II （WINNERII）, International Mobile Teleconmnications-Advanced （IMT-Advanced） and WiMAX models which contain the high speed moving scenario. The stationarity interval of real channel is 9 ms in 80% of the cases, which is shorter than those of the standard models. Hence the real channel of high speed railway changes more rapidly. The stationarity intervals of standard models are different due to different modeling methods and scenario def- initions. And the compared results are instructive for wireless system design in high speed railway.

Determination of reference intervals for metabolic profile of Hanwoo cows at early, middle and late gestation periods

Background： Metabolic profile was initially designed as a presymptomatic diagnostic aid based on statistical analyses of blood metabolites to provide an early warning of certain types of metabolic disorder. However, there is little metabolic profile data available about Korean Hanwoo cows. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the reference intervals of metabolic profile for Korean Hanwoo cows. Methods： Healthy animals （2,205） were selected and divided into early （day 1 to 95）, middle （day 96 to 190） and late （day 191 to 285） period according to their gestating period. Metabolic profile including total protein （TP）, albumin （AIb）, urea （UREA）, glucose （Glu）, total cholesterol （T-Cho）, long-chain fatty acid （LCFA）, aspartate aminotransferase （AST）, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase （GGT）, creatinine （Crea）, calcium （Ca）, inorganic phosphorous （iP） and magnesium （Mg） were analyzed using a TBA-4OFR automatic biochemical analyzer. The data of Korean Hanwoo cows were then compared to those of the Japanese Wagyu cows. Results： Most of the data of the Korean Hanwoo cows were relatively higher than those of Japanese Wagyu cows, with the exception of Glu and GGT. This may indicate that the nutritional level of feed for the Korean Hanwoo cows was higher than that of the Japanese Wagyu cows because of the different feeding system. In particular, relatively higher levels of UREA and LCFA were observed in the Korean Hanwoo cows, and this may also contribute to the low reproduction efficiency. Conclusions： These findings may provide some theoretical basis for understanding the reproductive and feeding situation of Korean Hanwoo cows.

Effect of Saline Water Application through Different Irrigation Intervals on Tomato Yield and Soil Properties

A field study was conducted on the experimental farm of ministry of agriculture, located at Palestine Technical University-Kadoorie, to investigate the effects of saline water irrigation through three irrigation intervals on yield of tomato crop and soil properties. The land was prepared and divided into 12 treatments, each of 48 square meters on the first of April. Tomato seedlings were planted on 25 April 2010;the seedlings were irrigated with fresh water for a period of 10 days after planting. Three levels of saline water irrigation (3, 5, 7 dS/m) plus fresh water as control were applied during the growing season. The four irrigation water treatments were applied through three irrigation intervals (every day, every second day and every three days). Gravimetric soil moisture content and soil electrical conductivity were monitored every two weeks during the growing period. Yield measurements were taken for total fruit yield, marketable yield as a percent of total yield, and average fruit weight of each treatment. Results of this study indicated that, plant treatments irrigated with saline water gave the highest yield for treatments irrigated every day compared to the treatments irrigated every second day and every three days. Statistical analysis showed significant differences in yield reduction between every second day and every three days irrigation intervals under 5 and 7 dS/m saline irrigation levels, while there was no significant difference between irrigation intervals under 3 dS/m salinity level.

Two-agent single machine scheduling with forbidden intervals

We consider the resumable version of the two-agent single machine scheduling prob- lems with forbidden intervals in which the jobs cannot be processed. The goal is to minimize the sum of the objective functions of the two agents. Polynomial and pseudo-polynomial time algorithms are presented for various combinations of regular scheduling objective functions.

Establishment of Reference Intervals and Transfusion Criterion for Sonoclot Analysis

Sonoclot analyzer has been widely used in many countries. But the reference intervals provided by the manufacturer were derived from only 45 participants, and there was no cut-off value for transfusion for Sonoclot analysis. This study aimed to establish reference intervals and transfusion criterion for Sonoclot analysis. Volunteers were recruited from healthy Chinese adults and patients undergoing cardiac surgery. Blood samples were withdrawn from forearm vein and measured for activated clotting time（ACT）, clot rate（CR）, platelet function（PF）, activated partial thromboplastin time（APTT）, fibrinogen concentration（FIB）, and platelet count（PLT）. The reference intervals were determined by the nonparametric method. Cut-off values were determined by the receiver operating characteristics curve. A total of 135 healthy volunteers and 281 patients were enrolled. The 95% reference intervals were 96–195 s, 22–51 signal U/min, 〉1.6 for ACT, CR, PF respectively. In the 281 patients, the results of APTT, FIB, PLT, ACT, CR, and PF ranged from 20.5–300.0 s, 0.28–4.11 g/L,（19.0–387.3）×109/L, 80–514 s, 2.9–74 signal U/min, and 0.1–5.1 respectively. The cut-off values for transfusion were 〉208, ≤14, and ≤1.3 for ACT, CR, PF respectively. The cut-off values of Sonoclot analysis were within the manufacturer＇s reference intervals, while they were outside the reference intervals established in this study. The results suggested that the manufacturer＇s reference intervals were not suitable for Chinese. The reference intervals and cut-off values established in this study will be helpful to Chinese patients.

The AMSAA-BISE Model with Gap Intervals

In this paper, the AMSAA-BISE model with missing data is discussed. The ML estimates of model parameters and current MTBF are given, and the chi-squared test and a plot for cumulative number of failures versus cumulative testing time are used to test the goodness of fit for the model. This paper concludes with a numerical example to verify the model.

Influences of different time intervals between loop electrosurgical excision and abdominal hysterectomy or radical hysterectomy on postoperative complications: a retrospective analysis

Objective： To study the influences of different time intervals between loop electrosurgical excision （LEEP） and abdominal hysterectomy or radical hysterectomy on postoperative complications. Methods： Sixty-eight patients, who received subsequent abdominal hysterectomy or radical hysterectomy after LEEP due to C1N III and cervical cancer （IA1, IA2 and IB1）, were included in the present study. The hospital and clinic records of these patients were reviewed. The patients were divided into three groups according to the time intervals between LEEP and hysterectomy or radical hysterectomy： group l（within 48 h）, group 2 （between 48 h to 6 weeks）, and group 3（〉 6 weeks ）.Results： General characteristics of patients, including the mean age, delivery history, BMI, menopausal status, clinical stage and HPV infection, were comparable between patients of different groups. There were no significant differences in the mean transfusion amount, posthysterectomy hospital stay or operation time between different groups. The frequencies and spectrum of complications were not significantly affected by the time interval between LEEP and hysterectomy or radical hysterectomy. Conclusion： It is concluded that whenever the LEEP is done, the operation including hysterectomy or radical hysterectomy can be conducted at any time as it is necessary for the patients.

Moved Score Confidence Intervals for Means of Discrete Distributions

Let X denote a discrete distribution as Poisson, binomial or negative binomial variable. The score confidence interval for the mean of X is obtained based on inverting the hypothesis test and the central limit theorem is discussed and recommended widely. But it has sharp downward spikes for small means. This paper proposes to move the score interval left a little (about 0.04 unit), called by moved score confidence interval. Numerical computation and Edgeworth expansion show that the moved score interval is analogous to the score interval completely and behaves better for moderate means;for small means the moved interval raises the infimum of the coverage probability and improves the sharp spikes significantly. Especially, it has unified explicit formulations to compute easily.

Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Proportions of Unequal Sized Groups Adjusted for Overdispersion

Group testing is a method of pooling a number of units together and performing a single test on the resulting group. It is an appealing option when few individual units are thought to be infected leading to reduced costs of testing as compared to individually testing the units. Group testing aims to identify the positive groups in all the groups tested or to estimate the proportion of positives (p) in a population. Interval estimation methods of the proportions in group testing for unequal group sizes adjusted for overdispersion have been examined. Lately improvement in statistical methods allows the construction of highly accurate confidence intervals (CIs). The aim here is to apply group testing for estimation and generate highly accurate Bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs) for the proportion of defective or positive units in particular. This study provided a comparison of several proven methods of constructing CIs for a binomial proportion after adjusting for overdispersion in group testing with groups of unequal sizes. Bootstrap resampling was applied on data simulated from binomial distribution, and confidence intervals with high coverage probabilities were produced. This data was assumed to be overdispersed and independent between groups but correlated within these groups. Interval estimation methods based on the Wald, the Logit and Complementary log-log (CLL) functions were considered. The criterion used in the comparisons is mainly the coverage probabilities attained by nominal 95% CIs, though interval width is also regarded. Bootstrapping produced CIs with high coverage probabilities for each of the three interval methods.

Treatment Free Intervals after Subsequent Chemotherapy Lines in Recurrent Ovarian Cancer

Aim: Despite recent advances in the treatment of ovarian cancer, recurrence of the disease is still frequent. This study evaluated whether multiple lines of chemotherapy have impact on overall survival (OS), progression free survival (PFS) or on treatment free intervals (TFIs) after serial chemotherapy lines in recurrent settings. Methods: A total of 189 patients with ovarian cancer (including fallopian tube and primary peritoneal cancer), who were treated in Kuopio University Hospital in Finland during 2009-2014, were enrolled. The medical files of these patients were retrospectively reviewed. Results: Median OS and PFS were significantly higher at the time of the first relapse compared to subsequent relapses (p < 0.001). TFIs shortened significantly after the first relapse (p < 0.001). The differences in TFIs were also seen when comparing platinum sensitive, semi-sensitive and platinum resistant patients. The total amount of TFI times during the whole follow-up time was significantly reduced in those patients that received at least one form of aggressive care at the end of life (p = 0.004). Conclusions: Ovarian cancer patients received often multiple lines of chemotherapy. TFIs after subsequent chemotherapy lines decreased during the disease course. More efforts should be taken to avoid unnecessary and ineffective treatments especially in recurrent phase of the disease.

Variational Inference Based Kernel Dynamic Bayesian Networks for Construction of Prediction Intervals for Industrial Time Series With Incomplete Input

Prediction intervals(PIs)for industrial time series can provide useful guidance for workers.Given that the failure of industrial sensors may cause the missing point in inputs,the existing kernel dynamic Bayesian networks(KDBN),serving as an effective method for PIs construction,suffer from high computational load using the stochastic algorithm for inference.This study proposes a variational inference method for the KDBN for the purpose of fast inference,which avoids the timeconsuming stochastic sampling.The proposed algorithm contains two stages.The first stage involves the inference of the missing inputs by using a local linearization based variational inference,and based on the computed posterior distributions over the missing inputs the second stage sees a Gaussian approximation for probability over the nodes in future time slices.To verify the effectiveness of the proposed method,a synthetic dataset and a practical dataset of generation flow of blast furnace gas(BFG)are employed with different ratios of missing inputs.The experimental results indicate that the proposed method can provide reliable PIs for the generation flow of BFG and it exhibits shorter computing time than the stochastic based one.