Occurrence of Extreme Rainfall and Flood Risks in Yopougon, Abidjan, Southeast Côte d’Ivoire from 1971 to 2022

Yopougon, located in the western part of the Autonomous District of Abidjan, is the most heavily populated municipality in Côte d’Ivoire. However, this area is prone to floods and landslides during the rainy season. The study aims to assess recent flood risks in the municipality of Yopougon of the Autonomous District of Abidjan. To achieve this objective, the study analyzed two types of data: daily rainfall from 1971 to 2022 and parameters derived from a Numerical Field and Altitude Model (NFAM). The study examined six rainfall parameters using statistical analysis and combined land use maps obtained from the NFAM of Yopougon. The results indicated that, in 67% of cases, extreme rainfall occurred mainly between week 3 of May and week 1 of July. The peak of extreme rainfall was observed in week 2 of June with 15% of cases. These are critical periods of flood risks in the Autonomous District of Abidjan, especially in Yopougon. In addition, there was variability of rainfall parameters in the Autonomous District of Abidjan. This was characterized by a drop of annual and seasonal rainfall, and an increase of numbers of rainy days. Flood risks in Yopougon are, therefore, due to the regular occurrence of rainy events. Recent floods in Yopougon were caused by normal rains ranging from 55 millimeters (mm) to 153 mm with a return period of less than five years. Abnormal heavy rains of a case study on June 20-21, 2022 in Yopougon were detected by outputs global climate models. Areas of very high risk of flood covered 18% of Yopougon, while 31% were at high risk. Climate information from this study can assist authorities to take in advance adaptation and management measures.

Landslide risk perception and communication for disaster risk management in mountain areas of developing countries：a Mexican foretaste

The increasing impact of disasters at local,national,regional and global scales in recent decades has provided enough evidence to urgently direct attention towards the necessity of disaster risk reduction and management,and this requires knowledge.Knowledge without communication is barren,and to communicate the risk of disaster it is necessary to understand the perception of the people at risk.In particular,this paper deals with the necessity to delineate strategies of risk communication in pursuance of risk knowledge as a core of disaster risk reduction and management,especially in mountain areas of developing countries.To portray this issue,an analysis of landslide risk perception in terms of experience,landslide risk awareness,exposure,preparedness,and risk communication and trust was undertaken in the municipality of Teziutlán,Puebla,Mexico,an area that has been affected for several decades by episodes of mass movement.Analysis of the responses to a risk perception questionnaire has offered valuable insights in terms of the information and knowledge most required by the people living in the area of interest,in order to devise a realistic and functional strategy to communicate the risk of a landslide disaster.This includes better understanding of controlling factorsand drivers of this risk,and the establishment of potential trusted sources of risk communication.Beyond considering practical matters of risk assessment and management,risk perception and communication can increase the resilience of vulnerable people,and can enhance capacity building for present and future generations.

Contamination of Fungi and Mycotoxins in Foodstuffs in High Risk Area of Esophageal Cancer

Fungal and mycotoxin contamination has been found in fordstuffs from Cixian County, an area with a high incidence of esophageal carcinoma (Eca). To set a scientific foundation for the prevention of Eca at the etiological level, fungal and mycotoxin contaminations of local foodstuffs in Cixian County were analyzed using classical fungal culture methods and HPLC. From 1990 to 1994, 220 corn/wheat samples and 34 corn samples were studied. As a control, 26 corn samples collected from a relatively low incidence area of Eca in Zanhuang County were analyzed for mycotoxins in 1990. The results showed that fungal contamination in corn and wheat was severe and that several of the predominant contaminating fungi such as Furasium moniliforme, etc. were carcinogenic. HPLC results showed that the detection rate and mean content of the mycotoxin sterigmatocystin (ST) in the mountainous area (5/8; 9. 14 μg/kg) were significantly higher than those in the hilly (0; 0) and plain areas (1/18; 1. 29 μg/kg) as well as in low risk area control samples (3/26; 0. 76 μg/kg). Detection rates of deoxynivalenol (DON) in mountainous and hilly areas (5/8, 4/8 respectively) were slightly higher than that in plain area (8/18), while the mean content of DON in the plain area was significantly higher (90. 45-170. 22 vs 50. 56 and 46. 45 μg/kg).Among the different aflatoxins, AFB1 was detected in samples from the two villages in the plain area for the subsequent two years. The mean content of AFB1 was 0. 0183μg/kg, and the highest level was 0. 0497 μg/kg. No AFB1 was detected in the samples from mountainous and hilly areas. AFG1 was detected in more than half of all the samples, and its concentration ranged from 8. 77 to 46. 51 ng/kg. No AFG2 was found in the samples. Thus, the results suggest that at present, fungal and mycotoxin contamination of foodstuffs in Cixian County are quite common.

Flood Risk Analysis and Flood Potential Losses Assessment

The heavy floods in the Taihu Basin showed increasing trend in recent years. In this work, a typical area in the northern Taihu Basin was selected for flood risk analysis and potential flood losses assessment. Human activities have strong impact on the study area’s flood situation (as affected by the polders built, deforestation, population increase, urbanization, etc.), and have made water level higher, flood duration shorter, and flood peaks sharper. Five years of different flood return periods [(1970), 5 (1962), 10 (1987), 20 (1954), 50 (1991)] were used to calculate the potential flood risk area and its losses. The potential flood risk map, economic losses, and flood-impacted population were also calculated. The study’s main conclusions are: 1) Human activities have strongly changed the natural flood situation in the study area, increasing runoff and flooding; 2) The flood risk area is closely related with the precipitation center; 3) Polder construction has successfully protected land from flood, shortened the flood duration, and elevated water level in rivers outside the polders; 4) Economic and social development have caused flood losses to increase in recent years.

Discussion on Common Problems in Risk Assessment of Lightning Disaster

The problems in calculating parameters of equivalent collection area,earth resistivity and lightning protection category as well as their effects on lightning disaster risk assessment were analyzed,and practical examples proved the effects of those differences on lightning protection identification,intercept efficiency calculation in evaluating lightning disaster risk. In the meantime,several new concepts,such as the height of buildings for lightning protection were defined,and a fixed radius value was set to the ground flash density for calculation,establishing the ground flash density formula to solve the problems in parameter calculation,which would be beneficial to promote the standardization of lightning disaster risk assessment.

Retrospection on the Conclusions of Earthquake Tendency Forecast before the Wenchuan M_S8.0 Earthquake

The reason for the failure to forecast the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake is under study, based on the systematically collection of the seismicity anomalies and their analysis results from annual earthquake tendency forecasts between the 2001 Western Kunlun Mountains Pass Ms8. 1 earthquake and the 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake. The results show that the earthquake tendency estimation of Chinese Mainland is for strong earthquakes to occur in the active stage, and that there is still potential for the occurrence of a Ms8.0 large earthquake in Chinese Mainland after the 2001 Western Kuulun Mountains Pass earthquake. However the phenomena that many large earthquakes occurred around Chinese Mainland, and the 6-year long quietude of Ms7.0 earthquake and an obvious quietude of Ms5.0 and Ms6.0 earthquakes during 2002- 2007 led to the distinctly lower forecast estimation of earthquake tendency in Chinese Mainland after 2006. The middle part in the north-south seismic belt has been designated a seismic risk area of strong earthquake in recent years, but, the estimation of the risk degree in Southwestern China is insufficient after the Ning＇er Ms6.4 earthquake in Yunnan in 2007. There are no records of earthquakes with Ms ≥ 7.0 in the Longmenshan fault, which is one of reasons that this fault was not considered a seismic risk area of strong earthquakes in recent years.

Study of Finite Element Modeling of Strong Earthquake Activities and Its Preliminary Application—Taking Southwest China as an Example

Based on research result concerning the preparation and activity of strong earthquakes in groups and using the finite element method, a finite element dynamic model for Southwest China is established in this paper. Using this model, the stress adjustment in the whole of the Southwest China region in response to the stress change due to strong earthquake occurrence is studied. The preliminary result shows that many strong earthquakes occurred in areas where the stress heightened after the last strong earthquake. So, the finite element model set up in this paper is useful for judging the regions where strong earthquakes are likely to occur in future.

Risk field assessment of longwall working face by the double-sided roof cutting along the gob

In order to study the mechanism of the dual side roof cutting technology on the composite disaster of gas and coal spontaneous combustion in goaf,a model for the evolution of porosity and permeability in the dual side roof cutting working face was constructed.The location of the occurrence of the compound disaster of gas explosion and coal spontaneous combustion under the double-sided roof cutting mode was studied,and the sensitivity of the evolution pattern of the compound disaster area to the amount of air supply and gas gush was summarized.The results indicate that the top cutting pressure relief technology significantly reduces the permeability of porous media,and the sensitivity of the goaf on the intake side to airflow disturbances is significantly reduced.As the volume of air supply increases,the distance between the gas explosion risk area and the coal spontaneous combustion risk area gradually decreases,and the probability of composite disaster areas is 0.The increase of air supply and gas emission makes the gas concentration in the middle and deep goaf increase in an exponential function,and the width of the gas explosion risk area increases gradually.When the outflow reaches 40 m^(3)/min,there is no composite disaster zone,indicating that the rapid increase in outflow inhibits the occurrence of composite disasters.

Non-invasive assesment of myocardial risk and infarct area in canine model of myocardial reperfusion by intravenous contrast echocardiography

This work is supported by Medical Science Technique Foundation of Guangdong Province.Abstract Objective To evaluate the newly developed perfluoropropene filled echo contrast agent (FCT 188) in non invasive assessment of risk areas (RA) and infarct areas (IA) with intravenous myocardial contrast echocardiography (MCE) in canine model of ischemia followed by reperfusion. Methods Eight chest opened Beagle dogs with a 90 minute ischemia followed by a 240 minute reperfusion were studied. MCE was performed after a bolus injection of FCT 188 (0.025 ml/kg, Ⅳ) into a superficial vein of the forelimb at baseline, 20 minutes after occlusion, and 4 h after reperfusion to non invasively assess the left ventricular myocardium area (LVMA), myocardial ischemic risk area (RA), and infarct area (IA) in a short axis view of left ventricle. The accuracy of detecting myocardial perfusion with intravenous MCE was further assessed by in vitro myocardial staining of the matched cross sections. Both RA and IA were expressed as percent of LVMA. Results LVMA, RA, IA, and IA/RA ratio were accurately assessed by MCE (LVMA: 6.60 cm 2±0.76 cm 2; RA: 35.7%±6.68%; IA: 21.0%±13.2%; IA/RA: 60.3%±31.4%; n=7) as compared with those of the matched cross section (LVMA: 6.81 cm 2±0.73 cm 2, P=0.062; RA: 35.3%±9.9%, P= 0.84; IA: 25.10%±14.5%, P=0.07; IA/RA: 68.0%±22.2%, P=0.28, respectively). There was a significant correlation of MCE assessed IA/RA ratio and its corresponding pathologiclly determined finding in vitro (Y=1.21X-21.6, r=0.73, P=0.015). No significant changes of electrocardiogram (ECG), mean artery pressures (MAP), pulmonary artery pressures (PAP), and pulmonary artery wedge pressures (PAWP) were found between pre and post intravenous injection of FCT 188 at each time point. Conclusion These indicate that FCT 188 can be used to assess risk areas and infarct areas accurately and non invasively with intravenous MCE in the canine model of a 90 minute ischemia followed by a 240 minute reperfusion and might have potential significance for non invasive assessment of myocardial reperfusion clinically.

Seismic Hazard Analysis of China's Mainland Based on a New Seismicity Model

Based on the seismic source model in the Fifth Generation Seismic Ground Motion Parameters Zonation Map of China(FGSGMPZMC),a new seismic fault model,the new zonation of seismic risk areas(SRAs),and the estimation of seismicity rates for 2021-2030,this study constructed a new time-dependent seismic source model of China’s mainland,and used the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method to calculate seismic hazard by selecting the ground motion models(GMMs)suitable for seismic sources in China.It also provided the probabilities of China’s mainland being affected by earthquakes of modified Mercalli intensity(MMI)Ⅵ,Ⅶ,Ⅷ,Ⅸ,and≥Ⅹin 2021-2030.The spatial pattern of seismic hazards presented in this article is similar to the pattern of the FGSGMPZMC,but shows more details.The seismic hazards in this study are higher than those in the FGSGMPZMC in the SRAs and fault zones that can produce large earthquakes.This indicates that the seismic source model construction in this study is scientific and reasonable.There are certain similarities between the results in this study and those of Rong et al.(2020)and Feng et al.(2020),but also disparities for specific sites due to differences in seismic source models,seismicity parameters,and GMMs.The results of seismic hazard may serve as parameter input for future seismic risk assessments.The hazard results can also be used as a basis for the formulation of earthquake prevention and mitigation policies for China’s mainland.