A risk assessment method considering risk attributes and work safety informational needs and its application

The technological revolution has spawned a new generation of industrial systems,but it has also put forward higher requirements for safety management accuracy,timeliness,and systematicness.Risk assessment needs to evolve to address the existing and future challenges by considering the new demands and advancements in safety management.The study aims to propose a systematic and comprehensive risk assessment method to meet the needs of process system safety management.The methodology first incorporates possibility,severity,and dynamicity(PSD)to structure the“51X”evaluation indicator system,including the inherent,management,and disturbance risk factors.Subsequently,the four-tier(risk point-unit-enterprise-region)risk assessment(RA)mathematical model has been established to consider supervision needs.And in conclusion,the application of the PSD-RA method in ammonia refrigeration workshop cases and safety risk monitoring systems is presented to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed PSD-RA method in safety management.The findings show that the PSD-RA method can be well integrated with the needs of safety work informatization,which is also helpful for implementing the enterprise's safety work responsibility and the government's safety supervision responsibility.

Research on Risk Assessment Method of Long-Tube Trailer Road Transportation

Road transport safety has always been paid attention to by the safety production managers of enterprises. In this study, cloud model and analytic hierarchy process were applied to the safety of long-tube trailer transport. The opinions of 30 experts were analyzed, from which 29 key parameters were selected. The study addressed the relevance of the parameters and the possibility of automatic collection and transmission to obtain 12 core risk factors. The macro-safety risk indicator system for long-tube trailers was established based on the identified risk indicators. Finally, a risk assessment model for road transport of long tube trailers consisting of 3 dimensions of likelihood, severity and sensitivity was constructed. This model provides a technical method for strengthening the risk control of road transport of long-tube trailers.

Risk factors and risk prediction model for mucocutaneous separation in enterostomy patients:A single center experience

BACKGROUND Mucocutaneous separation(MCS)is a common postoperative complication in enterostomy patients,potentially leading to significant morbidity.Early identification of risk factors is crucial for preventing this condition.However,predictive models for MCS remain underdeveloped.AIM To construct a risk prediction model for MCS in enterostomy patients and assess its clinical predictive accuracy.METHODS A total of 492 patients who underwent enterostomy from January 2019 to March 2023 were included in the study.Patients were divided into two groups,the MCS group(n=110),and the non-MCS(n=382)based on the occurrence of MCS within the first 3 weeks after surgery.Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify the independent predictive factors of MCS and the model constructed.Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to assess the model’s performance.RESULTS The postoperative MCS incidence rate was 22.4%.Suture dislodgement(P<0.0001),serum albumin level(P<0.0001),body mass index(BMI)(P=0.0006),hemoglobin level(P=0.0409),intestinal rapture(P=0.0043),incision infection(P<0.0001),neoadjuvant therapy(P=0.0432),stoma site(P=0.0028)and elevated intra-abdominal pressure(P=0.0395)were potential predictive factors of MCS.Suture dislodgement[P<0.0001,OR:28.007595%CI:(11.0901-82.1751)],serum albumin level(P=0.0008,OR:0.3504,95%CI:[0.1902-0.6485]),BMI[P=0.0045,OR:2.1361,95%CI:(1.2660-3.6235)],hemoglobin level[P=0.0269,OR:0.5164,95%CI:(0.2881-0.9324)],intestinal rapture[P=0.0351,OR:3.0694,95%CI:(1.0482-8.5558)],incision infection[P=0.0179,OR:0.2885,95%CI:(0.0950-0.7624)]and neoadjuvant therapy[P=0.0112,OR:1.9769,95%CI:(1.1718-3.3690)]were independent predictive factors and included in the model.The model had an area under the curve of 0.827 and good clinical utility on decision curve analysis.CONCLUSION The mucocutaneous separation prediction model constructed in this study has good predictive performance and can provide a reference for early warning of mucocutaneous separation in enterostomy patients.

Effect of Nursing Intervention Based on Caprini Risk Assessment Scale for Venous Thromboembolism in Perioperative Patients with Liver Cancer

Objective:To explore the effect of nursing intervention based on Caprini risk assessment scale for venous thromboembolism(VTE)in perioperative patients with liver cancer.Methods:A total of 128 hepatocellular cancer(HCC)patients who were hospitalized in our department from January 2021 to March 2022 and met the research criteria were selected.According to odd and even numbers in the order of inclusion,64 cases were divided into two groups:a control group and an observation group.The control group received routine nursing intervention during perioperative period,while the observation group received nursing intervention based on Caprini risk assessment scale for VTE.The incidence of VTE and complications were compared between the two groups.Results:The incidence of VTE and postoperative complications in the observation group were lower than those in the control group(P<0.05).Conclusion:Nursing intervention based on Caprini risk assessment scale for VTE can reduce the incidence of perioperative deep vein thrombosis and complications in patients with liver cancer;thus,it is worthy of clinical application.

GIS Application in Urban Flood Risk Analysis: Midar as a Case Study

The significance of this study lies in its exploration of the advanced applications of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in assessing urban flood risks, with a specific focus on Midar, Morocco. This research is pivotal as it showcases that GIS technology is not just a tool for mapping, but a critical component in urban planning and emergency management strategies. By meticulously identifying and mapping flood-prone areas in Midar, the study provides invaluable insights into the potential vulnerabilities of urban landscapes to flooding. Moreover, this research demonstrates the practical utility of GIS in mitigating material losses, a significant concern in flood-prone urban areas. The proactive approach proposed in this study, centered around the use of GIS, aims to safeguard Midar’s population and infrastructure from the devastating impacts of floods. This approach serves as a model for other urban areas facing similar challenges, highlighting the indispensable role of GIS in disaster preparedness and response. Overall, the study underscores the transformative potential of GIS in enhancing urban resilience, making it a crucial tool in the fight against natural disasters like floods.

Risk assessment model of tunnel water inrush based on improved attribute mathematical theory

Tunnel water inrush is one of the common geological disasters in the underground engineering construction.In order to effectively evaluate and control the occurrence of water inrush,the risk assessment model of tunnel water inrush was proposed based on improved attribute mathematical theory.The trigonometric functions were adopted to optimize the attribute mathematical theory,avoiding the influence of mutation points and linear variation zones in traditional linear measurement functions on the accuracy of the model.Based on comprehensive analysis of various factors,five parameters were selected as the evaluation indicators for the model,including tunnel head pressure,permeability coefficient of surrounding rock,crushing degree of surrounding rock,relative angle of joint plane and tunnel section size,under the principle of dimension rationality,independence,directness and quantification.The indicator classifications were determined.The links among measured data were analyzed in detail,and the objective weight of each indicator was determined by using similar weight method.Thereby the tunnel water inrush risk assessment model is established and applied in four target segments of two different tunnels in engineering.The evaluation results and the actual excavation data agree well,which indicates that the model is of high credibility and feasibility.

Advances in research on personalized venous thromboembolism risk assessment tools

This paper describes the de？nition of venous thromboembolism and introduces to personalized venous thromboembolism risk assessment tools overseas. Thoughts are given on the development, amendment,application and validation of these tools. The paper provides a reference for building personalized venous thromboembolism risk assessment tools in China.

Risk assessment of maize drought disaster in southwest China using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model

The East Asian monsoon has a tremendous impact on agricultural production in China. An assessment of the risk of drought disaster in maize-producing regions is therefore important in ensuring a reduction in such disasters and an increase in food security. A risk assessment model, EPIC（Environmental Policy Integrated Climate） model, for maize drought disasters based on the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator crop model is proposed for areas with the topographic characteristics of the mountainous karst region in southwest China. This region has one of the highest levels of environmental degradation in China. The results showed that the hazard risk level for the maize zone of southwest China is generally high. Most hazard index values were between 0.4 and 0.5,accounting for 47.32% of total study area. However,the risk level for drought loss was low. Most of the loss rate was ＆lt;0.1, accounting for 96.24% of the total study area. The three high-risk areas were mainlydistributed in the parallel ridge–valley areas in the east of Sichuan Province, the West Mountain area of Guizhou Province, and the south of Yunnan Province.These results provide a scientific basis and support for the reduction of agricultural drought disasters and an increase in food security in the southwest China maize zone.

The Credit Risk Assessment Model of Internet Supply Chain Finance: Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Model with the Principle of Variable Weight

The characteristics of the financing model are firstly analyzed when the e-commerce enterprises participate in the supply chain finance. Internet supply chain finance models are divided into three categories with the standard of whether the Electronic commerce enterprises provide funds for small and medium enterprises instead of banks. And then we further study the financing process and the functions of the e-commerce platform with specific examples. Finally, combined with the characteristics of the supply chain finance model, we set up a small and medium enterprises credit evaluation model based on the principle of variable weight with its dynamic data. At the same time, a multi time points and multi indicators decision-making method based on the principle of variable weight is proposed and a specific example is presented. In this paper, the Multi-criteria decision-making model with the principle of variable weight has been used two times. At last, a typical case has been analyzed based on this model with a higher accuracy rate of credit risk assessment.

Quantum Risk Assessment Model Based on Two Three-Qubit GHZ States

With the acceleration of the construction of quantum communication networks,scholars have proposed different quantum communication protocols for different application scenarios.However,few scholars pay attention to the risk assessment process before communication.In this paper,we propose a novel quantum risk assessment model based on quantum teleportation technology with two three-qubit GHZ states.Only by using Bell states measurements(BSMs)and two-qubit projective measurements(PJMs),the communicators can recovery any arbitrary two-qubit state.This protocol can transmit two-dimension risk assessment factors with better security performance.On the one hand,more sufficient evaluation factors allow the two communicating parties to more objectively evaluate the risk level of communication with the other party,and on the other hand,it also improves the qubit efficiency of the protocol.Moreover,we introduce the third party in this scheme can be semi-trusted,which must be full-trusted in our previous work.This change can reduce the dependence of the communication parties on the third-party organization and improve the privacy of communication.The security analysis shows that this scheme can resist internal and external attacks,and the quantum circuit diagrams also prove that our protocol is physically easier to implement.

Development and validation of a risk assessment model for prediabetes in China national diabetes survey

BACKGROUND Prediabetes risk assessment models derived from large sample sizes are scarce.AIM To establish a robust assessment model for prediabetes and to validate the model in different populations.METHODS The China National Diabetes and Metabolic Disorders Study(CNDMDS)collected information from 47325 participants aged at least 20 years across China from 2007 to 2008.The Thyroid Disorders,Iodine Status and Diabetes Epidemiological Survey(TIDE)study collected data from 66108 participants aged at least 18 years across China from 2015 to 2017.A logistic model with stepwise selection was performed to identify significant risk factors for prediabetes and was internally validated by bootstrapping in the CNDMDS.External validations were performed in diverse populations,including populations of Hispanic(Mexican American,other Hispanic)and non-Hispanic(White,Black and Asian)participants in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey(NHANES)in the United States and 66108 participants in the TIDE study in China.C statistics and calibration plots were adopted to evaluate the model’s discrimination and calibration performance.RESULTS A set of easily measured indicators(age,education,family history of diabetes,waist circumference,body mass index,and systolic blood pressure)were selected as significant risk factors.A risk assessment model was established for prediabetes with a C statistic of 0.6998(95%CI:0.6933 to 0.7063)and a calibration slope of 1.0002.When externally validated in the NHANES and TIDE studies,the model showed increased C statistics in Mexican American,other Hispanic,Non-Hispanic Black,Asian and Chinese populations but a slightly decreased C statistic in non-Hispanic White individuals.Applying the risk assessment model to the TIDE population,we obtained a C statistic of 0.7308(95%CI:0.7260 to 0.7357)and a calibration slope of 1.1137.A risk score was derived to assess prediabetes.Individuals with scores≥7 points were at high risk of prediabetes,with a sensitivity of 60.19%and specificity of 67.59%.CONCLUSION An easy-to-use assessment model for prediabetes was established and was internally and externally validated in different populations.The model had a satisfactory performance and could screen individuals with a high risk of prediabetes.

Numeric modelling and risk assessment of pollutions in the Chinese Bohai Sea

To simulate the dynamic process of total nitrogen(TN) in seas, numerical modelling combined with the adjoint method is implemented in this study. Because nonpoint source terms(ST) and initial values(IV) of TN are essential but difficult to determine, the adjoint method was applied to a numerical model, and the ST and IV terms of TN were inverted via routine monitoring data in the Bohai Sea. In twin experiments, the adjoint method was capable of inverting the prescribed spatio-temporally distributed ST and the spatial distributed IV. In practical experiments, the results demonstrated that the simulation precision with ST inversion was higher than that with IV inversion and was accurate with joint initial values and source term(IST) inversion. This result indicates that nonpoint source TN is essential for the simulation of TN concentration. Furthermore, the simulated results indicate that the pollution in three bays of the Bohai Sea is rather severe. The model in this study is not specific to the Bohai Sea and can be generalized to other areas, such as the Beibu Gulf. These findings may assist in the development of cost-effective controls for accidental or planned industrial pollutant releases into coastal waters.

Progress on the Study and Practice of Venous Thromboembolism after Operation of Tumor

The incidence rate of venous thromboembolism (VTE) of patients after operation is very high. Many studies on VTE have been processed. The pathogenesis, dangerous factors and assessment method of VTE are summarized in this paper. Two theories of pathogenesis, theory of Virchow’s triad and theory of anoxia at the tip of venous valve, are introduced first. The main dangerous factors of VTE such as tumor, perioperative period are discussed then. The main assessment methods of VTE are introduced also. At last, some problems required to be studied deeper have been presented.

Changes of citrus climate risk in subtropics of China

Based on the citrus temperature, precipitation, sunlight and climate risk degree, the article divides subtropics of China into three types： the low risk region, the moderate risk region and the high risk region. The citrus temperature risk increases with increasing latitude （except for the western mountainous area of subtropics of China）. The citrus precipitation risk in the central part of subtropics of China is higher than that in the northern and western parts. The distributions of citrus sunlight risk are not consistent to those of the citrus precipitation risk. The citrus climate risk is mainly influenced by temperature. There is latitudinal zonal law for the distribution of the climate risk, that is, the climate risk increases with increasing latitude At the same time the climate risk in mountainous area is high and that in eastern plain area is low. There are differences in the temporal and spatial changes of the citrus climate. In recent 46 years, the citrus climate risk presents a gradual increasing trend in subtropics of China, especially it has been increasing fast since the 1980s. Because of the global warming, the low risk region in the eastern and southern parts has a gradual decreasing trend, however, the high risk region in the northern and western parts has an increasing trend and the high risk region has been extending eastward and southward. The article analyses the distribution of the citrus climate risk degree of reduction rates of 〉10%, 〉20% and 〉30% in subtropics of China, and studies their changes in different time periods. Results show that the risk is increasing from southeast to northwest.

Development and validation of abiotic ligand model for nickel toxicity to wheat(Triticum aestivum)

A terrestrial biotic ligand model（t-BLM） was developed to predict nickel toxicity to wheat（Triticum aestivum） root elongation in hydroponic solutions. The competitive effects of five major cations（Ca^（2＋）, Mg^（2＋）, Na~＋, K~＋and H~＋） on Ni toxicity were investigated and Mg^（2＋）was found to be a strong competitor, while H＋showed less competing effect. Besides free Ni^（2＋）,the toxicity induced by the species NiHCO_3~＋ was non-neglect able at pH 〉 7 because NiHCO_3~＋ occupied a significant fraction of total Ni under such condition. Thus, a t-BLM including Ni^（2＋）, NiHCO_3~＋, Mg^（2＋）, and H＋could successfully predict the nickel toxicity to wheat root elongation and it performed better prediction than the conventional free ion activity model.In addition, the model was examined with two sets of independent experiments, which contained multiple cations and low-molecular-weight organic acids to mimic the rhizosphere condition. The developed t-BLM well predicted nickel toxicity in both experiments since it can account in both complexation and competition effects, suggesting its potential to be used in a complicated matrix like soil solution. This study provides direct evidence that the t-BLM is a reliable method for the risk assessment of nickel in terrestrial system.

A methodology for measuring the preservation durability of digital formats

It is now widely recognized that appropriate measures are required for digital preservation to ensure that digital data can be accessed and used currently and in the future.Among all the risks of digital preservation,format obsolescence is one of the most important.There have been several projects or initiatives dealing with the measurement method of format obsolescence risk,but there has been no mechanism to quantify the preservation risk or durability of digital formats based on a self-improving assessment model,executed with the aid of computers.This paper deals with a methodology for measuring the preservation durability of digital formats,especially for their risk assessment.This method is based on a quantitative assessment model for format risk,and can shift the non-quantifiable knowledge or experiences of field experts to a machine identifiable and processible form,or 'risk scores'.Results can be recognized and communicated by computers automatically and formally,which can assist in the automatic/semi-automatic risk management for digital preservation,sharing this quantified knowledge among communities. Because technologies are changing quickly,the quantitative assessment model for risks will not be a status quo situation.Thus,also presented is a method to fine tune the quantitative assessment model for risk of formats through a self-learning and self-improving style.