The Credit Risk Assessment Model of Internet Supply Chain Finance: Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Model with the Principle of Variable Weight

The characteristics of the financing model are firstly analyzed when the e-commerce enterprises participate in the supply chain finance. Internet supply chain finance models are divided into three categories with the standard of whether the electronic commerce enterprises provide funds for small and medium enterprises instead of banks. And then we further study the financing process and the functions of the e-commerce platform with specific examples. Finally, combined with the characteristics of the supply chain finance model, we set up a small and medium enterprises credit evaluation model based on the principle of variable weight with its dynamic data. At the same time, a multi-time points and multi-indicators decision-making method based on the principle of variable weight is proposed and a specific example is presented. In this paper, the multi-criteria decision-making model with the principle of variable weight has been used two times. At last, a typical case has been analyzed based on this model with a higher accuracy rate of credit risk assessment.

The Credit Risk Assessment Model of Internet Supply Chain Finance: Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Model with the Principle of Variable Weight

The characteristics of the financing model are firstly analyzed when the e-commerce enterprises participate in the supply chain finance. Internet supply chain finance models are divided into three categories with the standard of whether the Electronic commerce enterprises provide funds for small and medium enterprises instead of banks. And then we further study the financing process and the functions of the e-commerce platform with specific examples. Finally, combined with the characteristics of the supply chain finance model, we set up a small and medium enterprises credit evaluation model based on the principle of variable weight with its dynamic data. At the same time, a multi time points and multi indicators decision-making method based on the principle of variable weight is proposed and a specific example is presented. In this paper, the Multi-criteria decision-making model with the principle of variable weight has been used two times. At last, a typical case has been analyzed based on this model with a higher accuracy rate of credit risk assessment.

Method for Risky Multiobjective Group Decision-Making and Its Application

The multiobjective group decision-making problem under risk is common in reality. This paper focuses on the study about risky multiobjective group decision-making problem where the index value is not certain. We give indexes classifying method and index normalizing formula of this type problem. By building objective function that minimizes general weighted distance from every alternative to the relatively best and worst alternative, the optimal membership degree of every decision-maker to every alternative can be obtained, and by building another objective function that minimizes general weighted distance from the optimal membership degree of every decision-maker to every alternative to the group optimal alternative and the group inferior alternative, the optimal membership degree of every decision-maker to every alternative can be obtained, which are both based on probability theory and fuzzy theory. Aftermost a model is established which collects group preferences. This method provides a new idea and approach for solving multiobjective decision-making problem among uncertain system, which is applicable for practical problem. Finally a case study shows a satisfactory result.

Risk analysis and maintenance decision making of natural gas pipelines with external corrosion based on Bayesian network

Buried natural gas pipelines are vulnerable to external corrosion because they are encased in a soil environment for a long time.Identifying the causes of external corrosion and taking specific maintenance measures is essential.In this work,a risk analysis and maintenance decision-making model for natural gas pipelines with external corrosion is proposed based on a Bayesian network.A fault tree model is first employed to identify the causes of external corrosion.The Bayesian network for risk analysis is determined accordingly.The maintenance strategies are then inserted into the Bayesian network to show a reduction of the risk.The costs of maintenance strategies and the reduced risk after maintenance are combined in an optimization function to build a decision-making model.Because of the limitations of historical data,some of the parameters in the Bayesian network are obtained from a probabilistic estimation model,which combines expert experience and fuzzy set theory.Finally,a case study is carried out to verify the feasibility of the maintenance decision model.This indicates that the method proposed in this work can be used to provide effective maintenance schemes for different pipeline external corrosion scenarios and to reduce the possible losses caused by external corrosion.

A prospect theory-based methodfor linguistic decision making under risk

Based on the prospect theory, a novel linguisticdecision method under risk is proposed. First, the alternativesunder each risk state are rated using linguistic terms, and＇ thelinguistic decision matrix is constructed. Secondly, thelinguistic terms are transformed into triangular fuzzy numbers,so that the linguistic evaluations can be changed into numericalforms. Thirdly, with the aid of the prospect theory, theprobability weight functions and the linguistic value functionscan be computed, based on which the prospective values of thealternatives are obtained. Finally, the alternatives are rankedwith respect to the prospective values combined of probabilityweight and linguistic value functions. Thus, the optimalchoice is made. The decision process takes the psychologicalpreferences of the decision maker into consideration. Thepracticality of the proposed method is illustrated through anapplication on stock selection problems.

Risk analysis and assessment for make-to-order manufacturing

Based on the characteristics of make-to-order manufacturing, risks in enterprises are analyzed, which are encountered when receiving orders. Dividing the whole process into three stages, this paper provides a qualitative explanation of the risky factors, failure rate, risk level and changes of each stage, and then provides a mathematic model of quantitative analysis by using fuzzy sets and an analytical hierarchy process. In the light of the relationship among the three stages, a formula for calculating risk levels of orders is worked out. Meanwhile, both economic and non-economic losses due to an order failure are considered in the assessment system. An actual case is analyzed using the described method. Suggestions for risk prevention or loss reduction are given.

SUBJECTIVE RADE-OFF RATE METHOD OF MULTIOBJECTIVE DECISION-MAKING

This paper proposes a mathod of subjective trade-off rate which describles decision-maker's preferince in multiobjective decision-making. Decision-maker can arbitrarity determine his subjective trade-off rate,but it is not sure to be effective.The paper finds aft effective upper bound of subjective trade-off rate,which is the KuhnThcker multiplier of some mathematical programming.For the anbjective trade-off rate not being larger than the upper bonnd,the solving method and properties of the optimal solution corresponding tile trade-off rate are discussed.The paper lastly develops the process of solving multiobjective decision-making with the subjective trade-off rate method.

A Method for Risky Multiple Attribute Decision Making with Four - dimensional Reference Point

A method based on cumulative prospect theory was proposed to solve risky multiple attribute decision making problems with Four -dimensional reference points. Considering the influence of different learning processes and corresponding features on decision-making, a new reference-learning behavior is added, and a risk-based multiple-attribute decision-making method based on four-dimensional reference point cumulative prospect theory is proposed. Firstly, according to the cumulative prospect theory, the prospect value and the decision function value of the four reference points of learning, time, evaluation value and expected value are calculated respectively, and the cumulative prospect value matrix of each program dynamic is formed. Secondly,according to the WAA operalor, Maximize the stage weighting model to obtain the integrated cumulative prospect value. Finally, on the basis of this, the alternatives are sorted according to the size of the total cumulative prospect value, and compared with other methods, the validity and scientific of the proposed method are proved.

GIS Application in Urban Flood Risk Analysis: Midar as a Case Study

The significance of this study lies in its exploration of the advanced applications of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in assessing urban flood risks, with a specific focus on Midar, Morocco. This research is pivotal as it showcases that GIS technology is not just a tool for mapping, but a critical component in urban planning and emergency management strategies. By meticulously identifying and mapping flood-prone areas in Midar, the study provides invaluable insights into the potential vulnerabilities of urban landscapes to flooding. Moreover, this research demonstrates the practical utility of GIS in mitigating material losses, a significant concern in flood-prone urban areas. The proactive approach proposed in this study, centered around the use of GIS, aims to safeguard Midar’s population and infrastructure from the devastating impacts of floods. This approach serves as a model for other urban areas facing similar challenges, highlighting the indispensable role of GIS in disaster preparedness and response. Overall, the study underscores the transformative potential of GIS in enhancing urban resilience, making it a crucial tool in the fight against natural disasters like floods.

Engineering complex systems applied to risk management in the mining industry

Related to complexity, there is a wide diversity of concepts, ranging from ‘‘systemic" to ‘‘complex", implying a need for a unified terminology. Per different authors, the main drivers of complexity can be found in human behaviour and uncertainty. This complexity, structural or dynamic can be organizational, technological, or nested in their relationship. ISO international standard 31000:2009 definition of risk management ‘‘coordinated activities to direct and control an organization with regard to risk", when applied to economic sectors, industry, services, project, or activity, it requires the use of models or theories as guidelines. Therefore, as its basic elements comprehend human behaviour and/or uncertainty, risk management to be effective and adapted as much as possible to reality, must be operational within complex systems, as already demonstrated in different R&D environments. Risk management faces demanding challenges when approaching specific and endogenous needs, such as the mining sector. This paper presents a multivariable function analysis methodology approach based on complex system modelling and through real data corresponding to a risk management tool in the mining sector.

Group Decision Making With Consistency of Intuitionistic Fuzzy Preference Relations Under Uncertainty

Intuitionistic fuzzy preference relation(IFPR) is a suitable technique to express fuzzy preference information by decision makers(DMs). This paper aims to provide a group decision making method where DMs use the IFPRs to indicate their preferences with uncertain weights. To begin with, a model to derive weight vectors of alternatives from IFPRs based on multiplicative consistency is presented. Specifically, for any IFPR,by minimizing its absolute deviation from the corresponding consistent IFPR, the weight vectors are generated. Secondly,a method to determine relative weights of DMs depending on preference information is developed. After that we prioritize alternatives based on the obtained weights considering the risk preference of DMs. Finally, this approach is applied to the problem of technical risks assessment of armored equipment to illustrate the applicability and superiority of the proposed method.

Risk assessment:method and case study for traffic projects

A comprehensive project evaluation and decision-making method considering multiple objectives,stakeholders,and attributes of proposed traffic treatments is inherently complicated.Although individual techniques in evaluating operations,safety,economic,and stakeholder objectives are available,a practical method that integrates all these risk factors and their uncertainties into a multiattribute decision-making tool is absent.A three-level project decision-making process was developed to model and assess multiple-attribute risk in a proposed traffic treatment from the perspective of multiple stakeholders.The direct benefits from reducing delay and safety risk(basic objectives of traffic treatments) are computed in Level 1 with established methods.Feasibility and performance analysis in Level 2 examine site-specific constraints and conduct detailed performance analysis using advanced analysis tools.In Level 3,this paper introduces an innovative and integrated multiple attributes evaluation process under fuzziness and uncertainty(MAFU) process for evaluation and decision-making.The MAFU is a comprehensive and systematic assessment and decision-making procedure that can assess the magnitudes of project performance and to integrate conflicting interests and tradeoffs among stakeholders.A case study illustrates theapplication of MAFU for the selection of a traffic alternative involving several evaluation attributes and stakeholders.Results show that the MAFU produced the smallest variance for each alternative.With traditional cost–benefit evaluation methods,the uncertainty associated with performance of a traffic project in terms of operation,safety,environmental impacts,etc.,is unrestricted and cumulative.Therefore,a reliable multi-attribute evaluation of complex traffic projects should not be made with conventional cost–benefit analysis alone but with a process like MAFU.

Governance of artificial intelligence applications in a business audit via a fusion fuzzy multiple rule‑based decision‑making model

A broad range of companies around the world has welcomed artificial intelligence(AI)technology in daily practices because it provides decision-makers with comprehensive and intuitive messages about their operations and assists them in formulating appropriate strategies without any hysteresis.This research identifies the essential components of AI applications under an internal audit framework and provides an appropriate direction of strategies,which relate to setting up a priority on alternatives with multiple dimensions/criteria involvement that need to further consider the interconnected and intertwined relationships among them so as to reach a suitable judgment.To obtain this goal and inspired by a model ensemble,we introduce an innovative fuzzy multiple rule-based decision making framework that integrates soft computing,fuzzy set theory,and a multi-attribute decision making algorithm.The results display that the order of priority in improvement—(A)AI application strategy,(B)AI governance,(D)the human factor,and(C)data infrastructure and data quality—is based on the magnitude of their impact.This dynamically enhances the implementation of an AI-driven internal audit framework as well as responds to the strong rise of the big data environment.Highlights Artificial intelligence(AI)promotes the sustainability development of audit tasks.A fuzzy MRDM model extracts key factors from large amounts of data.Fuzzy decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory analysis accounts for dependence and feedback among factors.An effective framework of AI-driven business audit is proposed in which“AI cognition of senior executives”is the most important criterion.

A Study of the Anatomy of Decision Making in the Planning and Appraisal of Hong Kong Section of Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong High Speed Rail

This paper will study the anatomy of the decision making of Hong Kong Section of Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong High Speed Rail(XRL).The paper will focus on five aspects.They are drivers of megaprojects,mega infrastructure project as an agent of change,early and effective stakeholder engagement,Iron Triangle and context awareness.XRL will be regarded as a resonance test of the international literature findings.

Development Strategy of Infrastructure Risk Assessment Based Disaster Response and Management System

Major infrastructures such as levee, dam, bridge, road, etc. have a significant meaning in that they are the means to support ordinary social and industrial activities and also protect human and physical assets at the occurrence of disaster. Especially, integrated risk management of SOC facilities provides the policy maker in charge of SOC facility safety and related disaster prevention with a reasonable means of decision making and ultimately contributes to improving the safety of the applicable SOC facility. Furthermore, a variety of issues raised in the Sewol ferry disaster that occurred recently in Korea, such as, a proper response method and the relevant Golden time decision making at the occurrence of disaster, rapid grasping and reporting the situation on disaster sites, management and mobilization of resources for rescue and recover, loss of integrated control tower function, etc., might occur as well in facility disaster management. As the method of solving such issues adequately, this study suggests a strategy of new disaster response and management system. The analyses of Hazus-MH (FEMA) and DIMSuS (Purdue University) were comprehensively conducted, and based on the results required functions of new disaster response system of major infrastructure and its development directions were suggested.

大数据背景下造纸企业经营风险识别与管理优化研究

近年来,大数据技术的快速发展颠覆了造纸企业传统的风险控制模式,大数据技术在企业经营管理中实现降本增效的趋势越发明显。基于此,简述了造纸企业经营风险的种类与控制现状,探究了大数据时代给造纸企业经营风险控制带来的积极效应与消极影响,结合某些造纸企业经营实例进行经营风险的识别与分析,并基于大数据背景提出造纸企业经营风险识别与管理优化策略,以期建立科学、有效的经营风险预防与管控体系,提升造纸企业经营管理水平。

装配式建筑吊装施工安全关键风险分析的改进DEMATEL方法

为了解决装配式建筑吊装施工安全风险评估体系缺失、演化路径不清的共性问题,提高施工安全科学管理水平,提出了一种基于改进决策试验与实验室评估法(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory,DEMATEL)的关键风险识别与演化路径分析方法。基于扎根理论构建装配式建筑吊装施工安全风险评价指标体系,利用基于组合数有序加权算子(Combination Ordered Weighted Averaging,C-OWA)改进直接影响矩阵,建立DEMATEL模型决策矩阵,并通过因果关系图识别关键风险因素,探究关键风险演化路径,以武汉市某工程项目为背景开展实证研究。结果表明:该项目存在X_(1)(工人的专业水平与素质差)、X_(5)(工人的技能培训与安全教育不到位)、X_(15)(人员没有进行定期的安全培训)、X_(18)(现场施工安全管理水平低)、X_(19)(风险意识缺乏)等关键风险因素;在4条基础路径和2条复合路径中,复合路径的权重高于基础路径,随着关键风险之间直接和间接作用的复杂化,发生风险事件的可能性将逐步增加;复合路径除了通过基础路径与关键风险耦合得到以外,还可以通过基础路径的相互作用演化得到。

DEMATEL和模糊认知图在地铁深基坑施工安全风险动态评估中的应用

为探究地铁深基坑施工安全风险因素动态作用规律,科学预防施工安全事故,针对目前缺乏因素系统识别、因果关系量化和动态推理分析等共性问题,提出一种基于决策试验和评估实验室(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory DEMATEL)与模糊认知图(Fuzzy Cognitive Map,FCM)的地铁深基坑施工安全风险分析方法。首先,通过理论分析与文献梳理,采用扎根理论识别风险因素;其次,结合专家调研与量化分析,利用DEMATEL方法分析风险因素的因果关系;再次,将DEMATAL决策矩阵转化为FCM模型的交互作用矩阵,展开风险因素的预测与诊断推理分析;最后,选取案例进行实证,验证模型方法的可用性与有效性。结果显示:因素X_(1)(人员安全风险意识)对其他因素的影响程度最高;因素X_(1)(人员安全风险意识)、X_(8)(安全施工组织设计方案)和X_(7)(施工安全风险管理措施)是排名前3的关键风险因素;完善安全施工组织设计方案是最有效的管控对策。

基于装置运行平稳性的石油化工安全管理策略研究

为了找出并评价石化装置支配性风险因素,实现安全生产风险源头控制和管理,满足石化装置安全生产风险控制的高效性要求,通过建立石化装置事故风险影响模型,运用决策试验与评估实验室方法(DEMATEL)从“现代事故因果连锁理论”视角分析发现人、机(物)等风险因素都受管理因素支配。进而,基于工艺稳定性、工艺稳定性修正、非计划停工3个指标建立石化装置平稳性模型,对装置运行平稳率进行追踪统计,并通过实例对该模型进行了分析和验证。结果表明:该石化装置运行平稳性模型可以量化追踪事故风险支配性因素的控制效果,可展示石化装置不同阶段下的风险特点,可作为装置事故风险预警指标和安全管理绩效指标,可提高装置的安全管理水平。

经营投资责任追究与国有企业投融资期限错配改善

经营投资责任追究作为国有企业改革的重要举措,对投融资决策行为有着重要影响。文章选取2011—2021年我国沪深A股上市企业为样本,实证检验了经营投资责任追究对国有企业投融资期限错配的影响。结果表明,经营投资责任追究能够显著改善国有企业投融资期限错配;机制检验显示,经营投资责任追究通过提高投资决策质量和强化管理层风险规避意识,改善国有企业投融资期限错配;异质性分析发现,在管理层过度自信程度较高、股权激励水平较低和内源融资能力较差时,经营投资责任追究改善国有企业投融资期限错配的作用更明显。研究结果有助于规范和约束管理层非理性决策行为,推动国有企业做强做优做大,对加快建设世界一流企业具有重要借鉴意义。