Risk Early-Warning Method for Natural Disasters Based on Integration of Entropy and DEA Model

Risk early-warning of natural disasters is a very intricate non-deterministic prediction, and it was difficult to resolve the conflicts and incompatibility of the risk structure. Risk early-warning factors of natural disasters were differentiated into essential attributes and external characters, and its workflow mode was established on risk early-warning structure with integrated Entropy and DEA model, whose steps were put forward. On the basis of standard risk early-warning DEA model of natural disasters, weight coefficient of risk early-warning factors was determined with Information Entropy method, which improved standard risk early-warning DEA model with non-Archimedean infinitesimal, and established risk early-warning preference DEA model based on integrated entropy weight and DEA Model. Finally, model was applied into landslide risk early-warning case in earthquake-damaged emergency process on slope engineering, which exemplified the outcome could reflect more risk information than the method of standard DEA model, and reflected the rationality, feasibility, and impersonality, revealing its better ability on comprehensive safety and structure risk.

Research on the Method of Shipping Risk Early-Warning Based on Matter-Element Theory

The purpose of shipping risk early-warning is that some effective measures are taken to reduce risk probability before the risk brings heavy loss.The shipping risk has the dynamic characteristic,so the key of early-warning is to choice risk early-warning index correctly and evaluate risk grade quantitatively.According to the element extension theory,the rhombus inference model is applied to establish the index system.And the problem of risk grade evaluation can be solved by the assessment model of multi-index performance parameter,which is developed by the extension engineering method.Finally,the main shipping risks and their grades are identified by the example analysis based on the statistical data,which shows the effective and feasible of the shipping risk early-warning method.

Novel Early-Warning Model for Customer Churn of Credit Card Based on GSAIBAS-Cat Boost

As the banking industry gradually steps into the digital era of Bank 4.0,business competition is becoming increasingly fierce,and banks are also facing the problem of massive customer churn.To better maintain their customer resources,it is crucial for banks to accurately predict customers with a tendency to churn.Aiming at the typical binary classification problem like customer churn,this paper establishes an early-warning model for credit card customer churn.That is a dual search algorithm named GSAIBAS by incorporating Golden Sine Algorithm(GSA)and an Improved Beetle Antennae Search(IBAS)is proposed to optimize the parameters of the CatBoost algorithm,which forms the GSAIBAS-CatBoost model.Especially,considering that the BAS algorithm has simple parameters and is easy to fall into local optimum,the Sigmoid nonlinear convergence factor and the lane flight equation are introduced to adjust the fixed step size of beetle.Then this improved BAS algorithm with variable step size is fused with the GSA to form a GSAIBAS algorithm which can achieve dual optimization.Moreover,an empirical analysis is made according to the data set of credit card customers from Analyttica official platform.The empirical results show that the values of Area Under Curve(AUC)and recall of the proposedmodel in this paper reach 96.15%and 95.56%,respectively,which are significantly better than the other 9 common machine learning models.Compared with several existing optimization algorithms,GSAIBAS algorithm has higher precision in the parameter optimization for CatBoost.Combined with two other customer churn data sets on Kaggle data platform,it is further verified that the model proposed in this paper is also valid and feasible.

Significant risk factors for intensive care unit-acquired weakness:A processing strategy based on repeated machine learning

BACKGROUND Intensive care unit-acquired weakness(ICU-AW)is a common complication that significantly impacts the patient's recovery process,even leading to adverse outcomes.Currently,there is a lack of effective preventive measures.AIM To identify significant risk factors for ICU-AW through iterative machine learning techniques and offer recommendations for its prevention and treatment.METHODS Patients were categorized into ICU-AW and non-ICU-AW groups on the 14th day post-ICU admission.Relevant data from the initial 14 d of ICU stay,such as age,comorbidities,sedative dosage,vasopressor dosage,duration of mechanical ventilation,length of ICU stay,and rehabilitation therapy,were gathered.The relationships between these variables and ICU-AW were examined.Utilizing iterative machine learning techniques,a multilayer perceptron neural network model was developed,and its predictive performance for ICU-AW was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic curve.RESULTS Within the ICU-AW group,age,duration of mechanical ventilation,lorazepam dosage,adrenaline dosage,and length of ICU stay were significantly higher than in the non-ICU-AW group.Additionally,sepsis,multiple organ dysfunction syndrome,hypoalbuminemia,acute heart failure,respiratory failure,acute kidney injury,anemia,stress-related gastrointestinal bleeding,shock,hypertension,coronary artery disease,malignant tumors,and rehabilitation therapy ratios were significantly higher in the ICU-AW group,demonstrating statistical significance.The most influential factors contributing to ICU-AW were identified as the length of ICU stay(100.0%)and the duration of mechanical ventilation(54.9%).The neural network model predicted ICU-AW with an area under the curve of 0.941,sensitivity of 92.2%,and specificity of 82.7%.CONCLUSION The main factors influencing ICU-AW are the length of ICU stay and the duration of mechanical ventilation.A primary preventive strategy,when feasible,involves minimizing both ICU stay and mechanical ventilation duration.

Survey and Prospect for Applying Knowledge Graph in Enterprise Risk Management

Enterprise risk management holds significant importance in fostering sustainable growth of businesses and in serving as a critical element for regulatory bodies to uphold market order.Amidst the challenges posed by intricate and unpredictable risk factors,knowledge graph technology is effectively driving risk management,leveraging its ability to associate and infer knowledge from diverse sources.This review aims to comprehensively summarize the construction techniques of enterprise risk knowledge graphs and their prominent applications across various business scenarios.Firstly,employing bibliometric methods,the aim is to uncover the developmental trends and current research hotspots within the domain of enterprise risk knowledge graphs.In the succeeding section,systematically delineate the technical methods for knowledge extraction and fusion in the standardized construction process of enterprise risk knowledge graphs.Objectively comparing and summarizing the strengths and weaknesses of each method,we provide recommendations for addressing the existing challenges in the construction process.Subsequently,categorizing the applied research of enterprise risk knowledge graphs based on research hotspots and risk category standards,and furnishing a detailed exposition on the applicability of technical routes and methods.Finally,the future research directions that still need to be explored in enterprise risk knowledge graphs were discussed,and relevant improvement suggestions were proposed.Practitioners and researchers can gain insights into the construction of technical theories and practical guidance of enterprise risk knowledge graphs based on this foundation.

Risk Assessment of Deep-Water Horizontal X-Tree Installation

Due to the high potential risk and many influencing factors of subsea horizontal X-tree installation,to guarantee the successful completion of sea trials of domestic subsea horizontal X-trees,this paper established a modular risk evaluation model based on a fuzzy fault tree.First,through the analysis of the main process oftree down and combining the Offshore&Onshore Reliability Data(OREDA)failure statistics and the operation procedure and the data provided by the job,the fault tree model of risk analysis of the tree down installation was established.Then,by introducing the natural language of expert comprehensive evaluation and combining fuzzy principles,quantitative analysis was carried out,and the fuzzy number was used to calculate the failure probability of a basic event and the occurrence probability of a top event.Finally,through a sensitivity analysis of basic events,the basic events of top events significantly affected were determined,and risk control and prevention measures for the corresponding high-risk factors were proposed for subsea horizontal X-tree down installation.

Cardiovascular health awareness,risk perception,behavioural intention and INTERHEART risk stratification among middle-aged adults in Malaysia

Objective:To investigate the interrelationship between cardiovascular health awareness,risk perception,behavioural intention,and INTERHEART risk stratification in a middle-aged adult population in Malaysia.Methods:A cross-sectional survey with convenience sampling was conducted during November 2022 and January 2023.Participants completed validated questionnaires assessing cardiovascular health awareness,risk perception of cardiovascular diseases,behavioural intention towards adopting healthy habits,and INTERHEART risk stratification score(IHRS)based on established risk factors.A total of 602 respondents were included in the final analysis.Data were analysed with independent t-test/one-way ANOVA or Mann-Whitney/Kruskal-Wallis to test the differences,Pearson correlation or linear regression test to analyze the association of independent and dependent variables.Results:There was a significant positive correlation between medical knowledge related to cardiovascular disease(CVD)and knowledge related to CVD risk prevention,risk perception,behavioural intention and IHRS(P<0.05,Pearson correlation).Notably,individuals with higher IHRS tended to have lower knowledge related to CVD and CVD risk prevention,risk perception,and behavioural intention.Males,laborers,active/former smokers,individuals with lower household income and educational levels,those involved in occupations not related to the healthcare sector,and those who did not receive the CVD health brochure or are unaware of health self-assessment tools are likely to have lower levels of knowledge,risk perception,and poorer behavioural intention regarding cardiovascular health(P<0.05,one-way ANOVA).While educational level,smoking status,awareness about CVD poster,self-assessment tools were repeatedly significantly associated with knowledge related to CVD and CVD risk prevention,risk perception,behavioral intention and/or IHRS(P<0.05,linear regression).Conclusions:These findings underscore the importance of promoting cardiovascular health awareness and risk perception among middle-aged adults to foster positive BI and reduce CVD risk.Tailored interventions targeting specific risk factors identified by INTERHEART may enhance risk stratification accuracy and facilitate targeted preventive strategies.

Construction and validation of a risk-prediction model for anastomotic leakage after radical gastrectomy: A cohort study in China

Objectives:Anastomotic leakage(AL)stands out as a prevalent and severe complication following gastric cancer surgery.It frequently precipitates additional serious complications,significantly influencing the overall survival time of patients.This study aims to enhance the risk-assessment strategy for AL following gastrectomy for gastric cancer.Methods:This study included a derivation cohort and validation cohort.The derivation cohort included patients who underwent radical gastrectomy at Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital,Zhejiang University School of Medicine,from January 1,2015 to December 31,2020.An evidence-based predictor questionnaire was crafted through extensive literature review and panel discussions.Based on the questionnaire,inpatient data were collected to form a model-derivation cohort.This cohort underwent both univariate and multivariate analyses to identify factors associated with AL events,and a logistic regression model with stepwise regression was developed.A 5-fold cross-validation ensured model reliability.The validation cohort included patients from August 1,2021 to December 31,2021 at the same hospital.Using the same imputation method,we organized the validation-queue data.We then employed the risk-prediction model constructed in the earlier phase of the study to predict the risk of AL in the subjects included in the validation queue.We compared the predictions with the actual occurrence,and evaluated the external validation performance of the model using model-evaluation indicators such as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUROC),Brier score,and calibration curve.Results:The derivation cohort included 1377 patients,and the validation cohort included 131 patients.The independent predictors of AL after radical gastrectomy included age65 y,preoperative albumin<35 g/L,resection extent,operative time240 min,and intraoperative blood loss90 mL.The predictive model exhibited a solid AUROC of 0.750(95%CI:0.694e0.806;p<0.001)with a Brier score of 0.049.The 5-fold cross-validation confirmed these findings with a calibrated C-index of 0.749 and an average Brier score of 0.052.External validation showed an AUROC of 0.723(95%CI:0.564e0.882;p?0.006)and a Brier score of 0.055,confirming reliability in different clinical settings.Conclusions:We successfully developed a risk-prediction model for AL following radical gastrectomy.This tool will aid healthcare professionals in anticipating AL,potentially reducing unnecessary interventions.

Survey on Knowledge of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors in the Dakar Region

Introduction: Non-communicable diseases constitute a major public health problem, due to their morbi-mortality. The aim was to study knowledge of cardiovascular risk factors among residents of Dakar. Patients and Methods: This was a descriptive cross-sectional study. Our investigations were recruited over a six-month period (October 17, 2021 to March 21, 2022). Results: Two hundred and twenty-six (226) patients were enrolled. The mean age was 45.9 years. The under-40 age group was the most represented with 37.2%. There were 129 men (57.1%), giving a male/female sex ratio of 1.33. The highest level was represented by 159 people (70.4%). Those who responded (heart disease) were in the majority (38.1%). Hypertension was the most common CVD for 101 people (44.7%). One hundred and ninety (190) people (84%) knew the risk factors for CVD. Good knowledge of risk factors concerned 103 people (54.2%). Obesity was the best-known risk factor in 156 cases (69%). The media was the most important source of information for 121 people (53.5%). Hypertensives were the most represented with 8.4%. One hundred and thirty (130) people (57.5%) had previously paid attention to these FDRCVs. Awareness campaigns were the most effective means of communication for 170 cases (75.2%). Sixteen (16) people (35.6%) were taking antihypertensive medication. Walking was the most popular physical activity for 102 people (45%). People with a balanced diet were in the majority, with 174 respondents (77.0%). Conclusion: NCDs are a major cause of morbidity and mortality. It is essential to develop and implement a prevention and management program.

Understanding Osteoporosis: Pathophysiology, Risk Factors, Diagnosis, and Management

Osteoporosis is a systemic skeletal disease characterized by low bone mineral density (BMD) and deterioration of bone architecture, resulting in reduced bone strength and, consequently, increased susceptibility to fractures which poses a significant public health concern worldwide, particularly in aging populations [1]. The health-economic impact of vertebral and hip fractures has been extensively explored and it is well known that these fractures are associated with morbidity/disability and increased mortality;they also account for a substantial portion of the direct fracture costs. This review aims to provide a comprehensive overview of osteoporosis, including its pathophysiology, risk factors, diagnostic approaches, and management strategies. By elucidating the multifaceted nature of this condition, healthcare providers can better identify individuals at risk, implement preventive measures, and optimize treatment to reduce the burden of osteoporotic fractures.

Epidemiological Aspects of Obesity, Overweight and Cardiovascular Risk Factors at Associes in Semi-Urban Areas (Case of Sébikotane)

Introduction: Obesity and overweight are a public health problem. The general objective was to determine the epidemiological aspects of obesity, overweight and associated risk factors in a semi-urban environment. Patients and Methods: This was a cross-sectional, descriptive study conducted on November 28 and 29, 2023 in Sébikotane. It focused on volunteers for screening for chronic non-communicable diseases. Epidemiological and clinical data were evaluated. Results: One hundred and twenty-nine cases of obesity were recorded (28%). Two hundred and eighty-two cases were overweight or obese (61.3%). The mean age was 49.55 years, with a standard deviation of 12.41 years. The age group [40 - 49 years] was the most representative, with 85 cases (30.1%), and the majority were female, with 264 cases (93.6%). Primary education was the most common, with 75 cases (46.3%). Grade 1 obesity concerned ninety-seven cases (75.2%), and diabetes was present in thirty cases (23%). Hypertension was present in ninety-five cases (33.7%). Obesity was more marked in the age group [40 - 49 years] with 45 cases (36%). Conclusion: Obesity and overweight are a major cause of morbidity and mortality. The development and implementation of a prevention and management program is essential.

The Burden of Undiagnosed Hypertension and Associated Risk Factors among Adults in a Rural Community in Imo Sate, South-East Nigeria

Background: Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death globally and hypertension is a major contributor to this burden. Many people with hypertension have poorly controlled blood pressure and up to half of the adults with hypertension are unaware of their hypertensive status due to factors that bother on poor management and poor screening approaches. The implication is that people who have poor access to healthcare especially those in the rural communities are at increased risk of cardiovascular complications and all-cause mortality. Unfortunately, not much has been done to ascertain the burden of undiagnosed hypertension and associated risk factors in rural communities in Nigeria. Methods: We conducted a community-based cross-sectional study in a rural community in Imo State, Nigeria, on burden of undiagnosed hypertension with participants recruited via a multi-stage sampling method. An interviewer-administered questionnaire was used, and standardized instruments were applied to obtain, process and analyze the data. Tests of association between the independent variables and outcome were conducted using logistic regression. P-value of Results: A total of 380 adults participated in the study. The mean age was 44.2 years. The prevalence of undiagnosed hypertension was 35.8%. Logistic regression revealed that age, with the respondents in the age groups 26 - 35 years (OR = 10.647, 1.910 - 59.345, p-value = 0.007), 36 - 45 (OR = 3.680, 1.263 - 10.723, p-value = 0.017), 46 - 55 years (OR = 2.737, 1.114 - 6.727, p-value = 0.039), 56 - 65 years old (OR = 3.384, 1.610 - 7.115, p-value = 0.001);and being married (OR = 3.846, 1.118 - 13.233, p-value = 0.033), were independent risk factors for undiagnosed hypertension. Conclusion: The prevalence of undiagnosed hypertension in the rural population of South-East Nigeria is high. Younger age (26 - 35 years) had the highest odds of risk for occurrence of hypertension. Also being married was identified as a risk factor for undiagnosed hypertension.

Oesophageal Mycosis: Epidemiological and Clinical Aspects and Risk Factors for Occurrence in the Digestive Endoscopy Unit of the Donka National Hospital, Conakry CHU

Introduction: Oesophageal mycosis (OM) is one of the most common opportunistic infections in patients infected with HIV (Human Immunodeficiency Virus). However, this condition is increasingly observed in immunocompetent subjects. The aim of this study was to determine the endoscopic prevalence, clinical characteristics and risk factors for the occurrence of oesophageal mycosis in our department. Patients and Method: This was a prospective cross-sectional study of all patients who underwent oeso-gastroduodenal fibroscopy during the period from 1st January to 31st December 2022, i.e. one year, at the digestive endoscopy unit of the hepato-gastroenterology department of the Donka CHU national hospital in Conakry. All patients found to have oesophageal mycosis by FOGD were included. The endoscopy was performed using appropriate equipment: A Fujinon 4400 video endoscopy column;Three Fujinon EG 590 video gastroscopes;A hoover;Data were collected using a pre-established survey form and analysed using Epi info software version 6.0.4;Pearson’s Chi2 test as a test of independence and the exact 5% threshold ficher test. Results: Out of 1343 upper gastrointestinal endoscopies performed, 107 cases of oesophageal mycosis were found, representing a prevalence of 7.96%. The mean age was 40 years, with a male predominance of 55.42%. The sex ratio M/F was 1.24. The 45 and over age group was the most affected, with a prevalence of 40.43%, followed by the [35 - 45] age group, with a prevalence of 22.43%. Clinical symptoms were dominated by epigastralgia in 74.76% of cases, followed by odynophagia in 37.38% of cases, nausea and vomiting in 28.03% of cases, and pyrosis in 26.16% of cases. Oesophageal mycosis without oesophagitis was the most common endoscopic finding in 70% of cases. The main associated endoscopic lesions were erythemato-erosive and congestive gastropathy in 28.03% of cases, peptic oesophagitis (9.34%) and gastric ulcer (5.60%). The main risk factors found were positive HIV serology in 39.25% of cases, and diabetes in 24.30% of cases, with a statistically significant relationship of 0.02 and 0.01 respectively. Conclusion: Oesophageal mycosis is the most common opportunistic infection in patients with impaired cellular immunity. The prevalence of oesophageal mycosis in our series was 7.96%. This study enabled us to identify the main risk factors for the occurrence of oesophageal mycosis. Our country needs to step up its programme to combat and prevent immunodeficiency diseases, particularly HIV and diabetes.

Depression and Suicidal Risk in HIV-Infected Adults at Brazzaville University Hospital: Prevalence and Associated Factors

Introduction: Highly active antiretroviral tritherapies have improved the quality of life of people living with HIV (PVVIH) and extended their life expectancy. However, the nervous system is faced with a neurotropic virus that evolves chronically, sometimes creating neurological disorders directly or indirectly linked to stigmatization or therapeutic effects. Objective: to determine the prevalence of depression associated with suicidal risk (SR) and identify associated factors. Patients and method: This was a prospective descriptive and analytical study from January 1 to November 30, 2022, including all HIV-positive patients receiving or not receiving antiretroviral therapy. The study took place in the infectious diseases department of Brazzaville University Hospital. This department has an inpatient capacity of 36 beds, and an outpatient capacity of 25 patients per day, three times a week. This is the largest center for PVVIH in Brazzaville. The Patient Heath Questionnaire 9 (PHQ-9) was used to assess the degree of depression and suicidal risk. Therapeutic adherence was assessed using the Morisky questionnaire. Data were analyzed using SPSS version 23 software. Qualitative variables were expressed as numbers and percentages, and quantitative variables as means and standard deviations. Statistical tests were used according to their applicability criteria. For all tests, the significance threshold was set at 0.05. Results: A total of 150 patients were consulted, constituting the sample size. The prevalence of depression and suicidal risk was 32%. These patients had an average age of 42.83 ± 10.24 years, were female (n = 101;67.3%), Christian (n = 97;64%), single (n = 68;45.3%). Stigmatization (n = 75;50%) was the reason for attempted suicide. HIV was perceived as treatable (n = 103;68.7%), unlucky (n = 62;41.3%). Patients were WHO stage 1 (n = 105;70%). RS was present in 47 cases (31.3%). Factors associated with depression and suicidal risk were age (p = 0.000), residence (p = 0.028), suicide attempt (p = 0.000), desire to procreate (p = 0.000) and ARV (antiretrovirals) side effects (p Conclusion: The prevalence of depression and suicidal risk was high, in line with stigma and socio-economic conditions. The associated factors were in line with those identified in the literature. Mental health needs to be integrated into the overall care of people living with HIV.

Development and validation of a nomogram model for predicting the risk of gallstone recurrence after gallbladder-preserving surgery

Background:The high incidence of gallstone recurrence was a major concern for laparoscopic gallbladderpreserving surgery.This study aimed to investigate the risk factors for gallstone recurrence after gallbladder-preserving surgery and to establish an individualized nomogram model to predict the risk of gallstone recurrence.Methods:The clinicopathological and follow-up data of 183 patients who were initially diagnosed with gallstones and treated with gallbladder-preserving surgery at our hospital from January 2012 to January 2019 were retrospectively collected.The independent predictive factors for gallstone recurrence following gallbladder-preserving surgery were identified by multivariate logistic regression analysis.A nomogram model for the prediction of gallstone recurrence was constructed based on the selected variables.The C-index,receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and calibration curve were used to evaluate the predictive power of the nomogram model for gallstone recurrence.Results:During the follow-up period,a total of 65 patients experienced gallstone recurrence,and the recurrence rate was 35.5%.Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the course of gallstones>2 years[odds ratio(OR)=2.567,95%confidence interval(CI):1.270-5.187,P=0.009],symptomatic gallstones(OR=2.589,95%CI:1.059-6.329,P=0.037),multiple gallstones(OR=2.436,95%CI:1.133-5.237,P=0.023),history of acute cholecystitis(OR=2.778,95%CI:1.178-6.549,P=0.020)and a greasy diet(OR=2.319,95%CI:1.186-4.535,P=0.014)were independent risk factors for gallstone recurrence after gallbladder-preserving surgery.A nomogram model for predicting the recurrence of gallstones was established based on the above five variables.The results showed that the C-index of the nomogram model was 0.692,suggesting it was valuable to predict gallstone recurrence.Moreover,the calibration curve showed good consistency between the predicted probability and actual probability.Conclusions:The nomogram model for the prediction of gallstone recurrence might help clinicians develop a proper treatment strategy for patients with gallstones.Gallbladder-preserving surgery should be cautiously considered for patients with high recurrence risks.

Clinical risk factors for preterm birth and evaluating maternal psychology in the postpartum period

BACKGROUND Although the specific pathogenesis of preterm birth(PTB)has not been thoroughly clarified,it is known to be related to various factors,such as pregnancy complications,maternal socioeconomic factors,lifestyle habits,reproductive history,environmental and psychological factors,prenatal care,and nutritional status.PTB has serious implications for newborns and families and is associated with high mortality and complications.Therefore,the prediction of PTB risk can facilitate early intervention and reduce its resultant adverse consequences.AIM To analyze the risk factors for PTB to establish a PTB risk prediction model and to assess postpartum anxiety and depression in mothers.METHODS A retrospective analysis of 648 consecutive parturients who delivered at Shenzhen Bao’an District Songgang People’s Hospital between January 2019 and January 2022 was performed.According to the diagnostic criteria for premature infants,the parturients were divided into a PTB group(n=60)and a full-term(FT)group(n=588).Puerperae were assessed by the Self-rating Anxiety Scale(SAS)and Self rating Depression Scale(SDS),based on which the mothers with anxiety and depression symptoms were screened for further analysis.The factors affecting PTB were analyzed by univariate analysis,and the related risk factors were identified by logistic regression.RESULTS According to univariate analysis,the PTB group was older than the FT group,with a smaller weight change and greater proportions of women who underwent artificial insemination and had gestational diabetes mellitus(P<0.05).In addition,greater proportions of women with reproductive tract infections and greater white blood cell(WBC)counts(P<0.05),shorter cervical lengths in the second trimester and lower neutrophil percentages(P<0.001)were detected in the PTB group than in the FT group.The PTB group exhibited higher postpartum SAS and SDS scores than did the FT group(P<0.0001),with a higher number of mothers experiencing anxiety and depression(P<0.001).Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that a greater maternal weight change,the presence of gestational diabetes mellitus,a shorter cervical length in the second trimester,a greater WBC count,and the presence of maternal anxiety and depression were risk factors for PTB(P<0.01).Moreover,the risk score of the FT group was lower than that of the PTB group,and the area under the curve of the risk score for predicting PTB was greater than 0.9.CONCLUSION This study highlights the complex interplay between postpartum anxiety and PTB,where maternal anxiety may be a potential risk factor for PTB,with PTB potentially increasing the incidence of postpartum anxiety in mothers.In addition,a greater maternal weight change,the presence of gestational diabetes mellitus,a shorter cervical length,a greater WBC count,and postpartum anxiety and depression were identified as risk factors for PTB.

Practice of Infection Prevention and Control Strategies in Risk Departments during the COVID-19 Epidemic

Objective: To explore the practice and application of infection prevention and control strategies in risk departments during the COVID-19 epidemic, and to formulate the infection prevention and control measures to provide advice and guidance in risk departments. Methods: According to the latest plan of diagnosis and treatment, prevention and control issued by the National Health Commission, expert advice and consensus, combined with the actual situation in our hospital, a series of infection prevention and control measures of COVID-19 in risk department was formulated. Results: During the epidemic period, the prevention and control measures of nine risk departments including emergency operation, anesthesiology, endoscopy center, blood purification center, otolaryngology, stomatology, medical imaging department, medical cosmetology department and pulmonary function room were established from six aspects, including pre-examination and screening, medical technology control, personnel management, personal protection, environmental disinfection, medical waste disposal, etc. Conclusion: During the epidemic period, the infection prevention and control strategy of risk departments is one of the key links to control the spread of the epidemic, and risk departments must pay attention to and strictly implement various infection prevention and control measures.

Rolling Decision Model of Thermal Power Retrofit and Generation Expansion Planning Considering Carbon Emissions and Power Balance Risk

With the increasing urgency of the carbon emission reduction task,the generation expansion planning process needs to add carbon emission risk constraints,in addition to considering the level of power adequacy.However,methods for quantifying and assessing carbon emissions and operational risks are lacking.It results in excessive carbon emissions and frequent load-shedding on some days,although meeting annual carbon emission reduction targets.First,in response to the above problems,carbon emission and power balance risk assessment indicators and assessment methods,were proposed to quantify electricity abundance and carbon emission risk level of power planning scenarios,considering power supply regulation and renewable energy fluctuation characteristics.Secondly,building on traditional two-tier models for low-carbon power planning,including investment decisions and operational simulations,considering carbon emissions and power balance risks in lower-tier operational simulations,a two-tier rolling model for thermal power retrofit and generation expansion planning was established.The model includes an investment tier and operation assessment tier and makes year-by-year decisions on the number of thermal power units to be retrofitted and the type and capacity of units to be commissioned.Finally,the rationality and validity of the model were verified through an example analysis,a small-scale power supply system in a certain region is taken as an example.The model can significantly reduce the number of days of carbon emissions risk and ensure that the power balance risk is within the safe limit.

Risk Factors in Surgical Site Infections

Purpose of the Research: Our study aimed to determine and understand the risk factors of surgical site infections in patients operated on in general surgery wards. Method of Research: Between May 2008 and November 2008, 422 consecutive patients who underwent emergency and elective surgeries, excluding breast, goitre and laparoscopic surgeries, were included in the study to determine surgical site infections and risk factors. The patients’ risk factors were selected in the preoperative period, and postoperative 3rd, 7th, and 30th days were checked by the physician responsible for conducting the study regarding surgical site infection. Results and Conclusion: Surgical site infections were defined as incisional and organ/space based on NNIS data. Gender, diabetes mellitus, malignancy, degree of contamination, ASA score ≥ 3, preoperative skin cleansing, duration of intensive care unit stay, duration of hospital stay, growth in wound culture, duration of surgery and incision length were determined as risk factors increasing CAI rates. Especially the degree of contamination, duration of intensive care unit stay, hospitalisation, duration of operation, and growth in wound culture were decisive factors in the development of CAI. As a result of our study, in the light of these data, we concluded that to prevent the development of CAI can be modified, interventions to foreseeable factors can be assessed.