Model of generic project risk element transmission theory based on data mining

In order to construct the data mining frame for the generic project risk research, the basic definitions of the generic project risk element were given, and then a new model of the generic project risk element was presented with the definitions. From the model, data mining method was used to acquire the risk transmission matrix from the historical databases analysis. The quantitative calculation problem among the generic project risk elements was solved. This method deals with well the risk element transmission problems with limited states. And in order to get the limited states, fuzzy theory was used to discrete the historical data in historical databases. In an example, the controlling risk degree is chosen as P(Rs≥2) ≤0.1, it means that the probability of risk state which is not less than 2 in project is not more than 0.1, the risk element R3 is chosen to control the project, respectively. The result shows that three risk element transmission matrix can be acquired in 4 risk elements, and the frequency histogram and cumulative frequency histogram of each risk element are also given.

Analysis and evaluation of enterprise risk management capability elements

Research on enterprise risk management capability is conducted with a view of discerning and processing risks, in which an evaluation index system and an evaluation model of enterprise risk management capabilities are constructed. The risk management capability consists of four aspects, i.e. risk identification capability, risk assessment capability, risk planning capability and risk control capability. Risk identification and assessment capabilities reflect the level of enterprises on finding and analyzing risks efficiently, while risk planning and control capabilities reflect the level of enterprises on resolving risks effectively. Each of capabilities is then further divided into more detailed elements based on the characteristics of enterprise development for a quantitative analysis of enterprise risk management capability. The approach adopted is a quantitative technique based on the use of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Finally, a case is pulled in to illustrate the feasibility of the method from an empirical perspective. This study is expected to be helpful for enterprises in cultivating their core capabilities.

Effect of Exposure to Trace Elements in the Soil on the Prevalence of Neural Tube Defects in a High-Risk Area of China

Objective Our objective is to build a model that explains the association between the exposure to trace elements in the soil and the risk of neural tube defects. Methods We built a function with different parameters to describe the effects of trace elements on neural tube defects. The association between neural tube defects and trace element levels was transformed into an optimization problem using the maximum likelihood method. Results Tin, lead, nickel, iron, copper, and aluminum had typical layered effects （dosage effects） on the prevalence of neural tube defects. Arsenic, selenium, zinc, strontium, and vanadium had no effect, and molybdenum had one threshold value that affected the prevalence of birth defects. Conclusion As an exploratory research work, our model can be used to determine the direction of the effect of the trace element content of cultivated soil on the risk of neural tube defects, which shows the clues by the dosage effect of their toxicological characteristics. Based on our findings, future biogeochemical research should focus on the direct effects of trace elements on human health.

Co-Contamination of Arsenic and Other Trace Elements (Hg, Pb, Al, Fe, Cr, Ni, and Cd) in the Rafsanjan Plain Alluvial Aquifer SE of Iran and Arsenic Risk Assessment

Assessing the concentration of trace elements in aquifers is increasingly subjected to study in Iran due to the lack of groundwater resources. This study was undertaken with the objective of determining trace elements in the alluvial aquifer located in the southern part of the Rafsanjan plain, Kerman province, Iran. The total of 73 groundwater samples from individual water wells were analyzed by atomic absorption spectroscopy (AAS). Results showed that the levels of As, Hg, Pb, Al, Fe, Cr, Ni, and Cd elements were above the World Health Organization standards for drinking-water in some parts of the plain. Thus, statistical data analyses and spatial distribution interpretation were performed to identify the main sources of the pollution. A health risk assessment model derived from US environmental protection agency was applied to calculate the cumulative exposure to As as well as toxic and carcinogenic risks caused by drinking contaminated raw groundwater. Results show that residents of some part of region may suffer from significant adverse toxic health impacts and are exposed to drinking water with As concentrations.

Dietary exposure estimates of trace elements in selected agricultural products grown in greenhouse and associated health risks in Korean population

This study focuses on the dietary exposure of trace elements (TEs) through the intake of various agricultural products grown in greenhouse, and its corresponding health risks at different age categories in Korean population. It was observed that the mean contents of TEs found in selected agricultural products were well below their guidelines. Mean and 95th percentile intake estimates of TEs were ranged from 0.02 to that considerable attention should be paid to the potential health risks of TEs through intake of various foodstuffs and other exposure pathways.

Distribution, Enrichment and Ecological Risk Assessment of Six Elements in Bed Sediments of a Tropical River, Chottanagpur Plateau: A Spatial and Temporal Appraisal

Distribution and enrichment of six elements (iron, zinc, copper, lead, cadmium and manganese) in surface bed sediments, collected from seventeen selected locations during pre-monsoon and postmonsoon periods, of the tropical Chottanagpur plateau river Subarnarekha along with the ecological risks involved were investigated. Owing to the rich occurrence of mineral resources, the Subarnarekha river basin has a large scale presence of industrial and mining units especially in the Indian State of Jharkhand. An assessment, which involved examining distribution pattern of elements, comparative studies with sediment quality guidelines (SQGs) and geochemical background values and a sequential and integrated index analyses approach (containing contamination factor (CF), pollution load index (PLI), contamination degree (CD), enrichment factor (EF), geo-accumulation index (Igeo) and potential ecological risk index (PERI)), was followed to estimate enrichment and risks of elements in the bed sediments. Sediments collected from areas having abundance of population, industrial conglomerates and mining units recorded elevated element concentrations, which exceeded SQGs, and significantly higher values of CF, CD, PLI, EF, Igeo and PERI. Cadmium demonstrated surprising regularity in its enrichment;contributed most to the ecological risks;and high toxicity risks due to cadmium exceeded 64% of the sites. Moreover, chronic exposures of other elements would also lead to similar ecological risks. In addition to revealing potential ecological risks due to cadmium and other elements our investigation markedly highlighted anthropogenic control over sediment quality deterioration and some immediate sediment quality management strategies are needed to remediate and control river bed contamination.

大数据下企业供应链风险管理与竞争情报融合模型构建--以华为公司为例

[研究目的]国际经贸对抗环境下,中美贸易摩擦将持续升级,国家层面的技术创新竞争使得企业面临的供应链风险大幅提升。同时,大数据改变了供应链风险管理模式,而竞争情报可以从理论、技术和方法等方面提升大数据下企业供应链风险管理能力,因此大数据下企业供应链风险管理与竞争情报的融合研究具有重要意义。[研究方法]采用文献分析、案例研究等方法,分析供应链风险管理与竞争情报的异同点,继而论证大数据下供应链风险管理与竞争情报融合的可行性和必要性,再辅之以标杆企业华为的供应链中断风险事件验证,最终构建大数据下华为供应链风险管理与竞争情报融合模型,并分析运行维护此模型的保障要素。[研究结论]研究表明,基于战略、组织、制度、技术和资源五要素的共同保障,大数据下供应链风险管理与竞争情报的融合能够实现供应链风险管理的全面性、及时性和有效性。

Climate change vulnerability assessment in the new urban planning process in Tanzania

Climate change vulnerability assessment is an essential tool for identifying regions that are most susceptible to the impacts of climate change and designing effective adaptation actions that can reduce vulnerability and enhance long-term resilience of these regions.This study explored a framework for climate change vulnerability assessment in the new urban planning process in Jangwani Ward,Tanzania.Specifically,taking flood as an example,this study highlighted the steps and methods for climate change vulnerability assessment in the new urban planning process.In the study area,95 households were selected and interviewed through purposeful sampling.Additionally,10 respondents(4 females and 6 males)were interviewed for Focus Group Discussion(FGD),and 3 respondents(1 female and 2 males)were selected for Key Informant Interviews(KII)at the Ministry of Lands,Housing and Human Settlements Development.This study indicated that climate change vulnerability assessment framework involves the assessment of climatic hazards,risk elements,and adaptive capacity,and the determination of vulnerability levels.The average hazard risk rating of flood was 2.3.Socioeconomic and livelihood activities and physical infrastructures both had the average risk element rating of 3.0,and ecosystems had the average risk element rating of 2.9.Adaptive capacity ratings of knowledge,technology,economy or finance,and institution were 1.6,1.9,1.4,and 2.2,respectively.The vulnerability levels of socioeconomic and livelihood activities and physical infrastructure were very high(4.0).Ecosystems had a high vulnerability level(3.8)to flood.The very high vulnerability level of socioeconomic and livelihood activities was driven by high exposure and sensitivity to risk elements and low adaptive capacity.The study recommends adoption of the new urban planning process including preparation,planning,implementation,and monitoring-evaluation-review phases that integrates climate change vulnerability assessment in all phases.

基于ICP-MS技术的六神曲中无机元素分析及其风险评估

对六神曲中无机元素进行分析并结合风险评估,为发酵类中药中有益元素的揭示、有害元素限量标准的制定提供依据。基于电感耦合等离子体质谱(ICP-MS)技术,对不同来源六神曲中无机元素进行含量测定,结合多元统计分析,对无机元素的特征进行表征,并对其进行初步风险评估。结果表明:六神曲中无机元素整体趋势一致,对比相关标准产六神曲生品发现,Zn、Ba、Cu为主要差异元素;按部颁标准产六神曲生品与麸炒品差异明显,Zn、Tl、Cu为特征差异元素;Cu、Cr、As为按《浙江省中药炮制规范》产六神曲生品与炒焦品中主要差异元素。风险评估结果提示,六神曲中有害元素的风险较低。方法稳定可靠,不同制法、不同炮制品六神曲中元素分布特征呈现出一定的规律性与差异性,其中重金属及有害元素的风险基本可控。研究结果可为六神曲质量控制体系的完善及安全性评价提供参考。

风险社会的媒介化治理:一个整合性分析框架

当前,我国发展进入战略机遇和风险挑战并存期。国家治理体系和治理能力现代化是中国式现代化的重要组成部分,为推进中国式现代化提供了制度保障。风险的媒介化治理有助于推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化,进而为推进中国式现代化注入强劲动力。媒介化治理的对象是治理难度阶梯递进的风险挑战;治理主体是以媒介为中枢的多治理主体网络;治理工具是由媒介可供性主导的软性治理手段;治理方式则是可在层级化与网络化之间灵活调节的连续统;治理过程遵循风险生命周期和价值链的逻辑;治理效能则主要从信息传通与主体连接两个侧面进行衡量。这些媒介化治理要素之间的互动,形成了媒介化治理的整合性分析框架,为推进媒介化治理的研究与实践提供了基础纲目和知识概览。

北京市售生食果蔬中耐药基因赋存特征及迁移风险

目的调研抗生素耐药基因(antibiotic resistance genes,ARGs)的赋存特征,探讨其在食品安全领域的潜在风险。方法采用高通量定量聚合酶链式反应(high-throughput quantitative polymerase chain reaction,HT-qPCR)技术,对北京市售生食果蔬中ARGs及可移动遗传元件(mobile genetic elements,MGEs)的多样性和存在丰度进行描述,并通过高风险筛查、相关性分析、冗余分析、方差分解分析,探讨ARGs的迁移风险。结果共检出9大类188个ARGs和9个MGEs,丰度范围分别为6.18×10^(3)~1.24×10^(8) copies/g、5.86×10^(3)~3.34×10^(8) copies/g;四环素类、氨基糖苷类、β-内酰胺类、大环内酯-林可霉素-链阳霉素类(macrolide-lincosamide-streptogramin B,MLSB)ARGs分布最广;多重耐药类ARGs丰度最高;涉及的主要耐药机制贡献大小为抗生素灭活>外排泵>细胞保护。其中,苦菊的ARGs检出率最高,青椒的ARGs丰度最高;茄果类、叶菜类ARGs丰度普遍高于根茎类蔬菜;水果类样品中ARGs的检出率和丰度最低。高风险ARGs普遍存在,丰度最高可达7.85×10^(7) copies/g,且氨基糖苷类、磺胺类、四环素类、多重耐药类ARGs具有高迁移风险,整合酶和转座酶两类转移机制共同构成主要驱动因素(46.44%)。结论生食果蔬中ARGs赋存情况严重,具有较高的迁移风险,很可能导致耐药现象的大量产生及扩散,危害人类健康,应引起高度重视。

牛黄解毒片中重金属及有害金属元素测定及健康风险评估

目的测定牛黄解毒片中重金属及有害金属元素残留情况,并将风险评估引入中药外源性污染评价。方法样品经微波消解后,采用ICP-MS法对60批牛黄解毒片中重金属及有害金属元素含量进行测定,按照危害识别、危害特征描述、暴露评估和风险描述的程序,对健康风险进行初步评估。结果所测得4种元素在各自范围内线性关系均良好(r≥0.997),回收率为87.3%~93.1%(RSD≤3.1%)。60批样品中Cu﹑Cd﹑Pb均未超标,Hg超标率为48.3%。结论该方法灵敏准确,考察了牛黄解毒片中重金属及有害元素残留情况,科学评估了重金属对人体的健康风险,为中药牛黄解毒片的安全性评价提供研究思路。

冠心病中医证素分布及与危险因素的相关性研究

目的 研究冠状动脉粥样硬化性心脏病(简称“冠心病”)患者的中医证素分布及其与危险因素的相关性。方法 纳入冠心病患者473例,综合中医四诊资料进行辨证;利用Logistic回归分析检测中医证素和危险因素的相关性。结果 473例冠心病患者中包含8种中医证素,所占比例由多到少依次为血瘀、热毒、痰浊、气虚、阴虚、气滞、阳虚、寒凝。中医证素和危险因素的相关性分析显示,男性是热毒证的危险因素,女性、年龄是其保护因素;血脂异常史是血瘀证的危险因素;女性、年龄、家族史是气虚证的危险因素;年龄是阴虚证的危险因素。结论 危险因素与冠心病患者中医证素存在一定相关性,性别与热毒证、气虚证相关,年龄与热毒证、气虚证、阴虚证相关,血脂异常与血瘀证相关,家族史与气虚证相关。

山东省胶东半岛养殖刺参中金属元素含量水平分析及健康风险评估

为探讨山东省胶东半岛养殖刺参(Apostichopus japonicus)中铅、镉、汞等11种金属及无机砷含量水平、分布特征及对人体健康的潜在风险,2018—2020年在山东省龙口、莱州、荣城随机采集低播养殖的体质量47.5~98.3 g的刺参样品130份,采用ICP-MS法测定样品中铅、镉、砷等10种元素,原子荧光法测定汞,HPLC-ICP-MS联用法测定无机砷,采用目标危险系数评估样品中金属对人体存在的潜在健康风险,为我国制订鲜海参卫生标准提供参考和数据支撑。结果表明,11种金属元素平均浓度依次递减为Al、Zn、Mn、Cu、As、Cr、Ni、Pb、Cd、Sn、Hg,无机砷含量均小于检出限。单个元素风险顺序为Cd>Cr>Pb>Cu>Al>Zn>Mn>Ni>Hg。单一元素的目标危险系数THQ与多种金属的复合目标危险系数TTHQ均小于1。结果证明:食用山东省胶东半岛养殖刺参目前对人体健康不具有危险性。其中对人体健康危害最大的元素为镉,贡献率达25.6%,应关注海参中镉元素含量对人体健康造成的潜在威胁。

汾河流域地表水金属元素分布特征与健康风险评价

为研究汾河流域地表水中金属污染特征及其健康危害程度,本文采集汾河流域主要支流入河口及干流断面水样39组,检测As、Cu、Pb、Zn、Hg、Ni、Mn、Fe和Co共9种金属元素含量,利用多元统计分析法、水环境健康风险评价模型分析了流域地表水中金属元素分布特征及对成人与儿童产生的健康危害.结果表明,研究区主要超标元素为Hg、Fe和Mn,污染区主要分布于汾河干流中下游和支流.汾河干流上游Fe、Mn、Zn和Co变化幅度较大,中游、下游次之;各支流金属元素含量差异较大.多元统计分析显示,Hg和As主要来源于工业污染及农业污染等;Cu、Pb、Zn、Ni、Co、Fe和Mn来源于工农业生产和交通运输.健康风险评价表明,汾河流域各河段健康总风险为汾河支流>汾河下游>汾河中游>汾河上游,汾河中下游和支流健康风险危害较大,健康风险均为中等;经饮用水途径造成的健康风险儿童是成人的1.15倍,儿童更易受到金属元素的危害;As为支流浍河和昌源河的主要致癌因子;各河段优先控制金属元素为As、Co、Pb、Fe和Hg.

泰州市某区2020—2022年PM_(2.5)中金属元素污染特征及健康风险评估

泰州市区PM_(2.5)浓度总体较好,但市区内经常出现雾霾天气。空气中PM_(2.5)载带的金属元素经呼吸途径进入人体,长期蓄积可严重影响人体健康。为了解泰州市某市区大气悬浮细颗粒物(Fine particulate matter,PM_(2.5))中金属元素含量变化及其来源,并评价人群健康风险程度。2020—2022年每月采集大气PM_(2.5)样品,超声浸提滤膜中金属元素,电感耦合等离子体质谱法测定金属元素含量,采用地累积指数法评价金属元素污染状况,正定矩阵源解析法解析金属元素可能来源,污染物健康风险评估法评估当地居民的暴露风险程度。2020—2022年PM_(2.5)浓度略微下降,且均是8月、9月、10月浓度较低,1月、11月、12月浓度较高,年均质量浓度依次为(48.4±33.6),(41.6±24.3),(40.8±20.9)μg·m^(-3),超过国家二级标准的概率依次为11.9%(10/84),11.9%(10/84),10.7%(9/84)。所测12种金属元素中,含量由高到低依次为Zn、Al、Mn、Pb、Cu、As、Cr、Se、Ni、Sb、Cd、Tl,其中Mn、Ni均未超过世界卫生组织规定的标准。Pb、Cd未超过GB 3095—2012《环境空气质量标准》,As、Cr超标率依次为17.2%,86.3%。地累积指数值发现,除Al未受到污染,其余元素均受到人为活动的影响,Se、Cd污染程度较高,Cr、Mn、Ni污染程度较低。健康风险评估发现,Al、Cr、Ni、As、Se、Cd、Sb的HQ值小于1,Cr、As的CR值在1×10^(-6)~1×10^(-4)。源解析表明,污染来源有燃煤源、交通排放源、自然源、冶金化工等工业源。3年内PM_(2.5)平均浓度略有降低,除As、Pb、Mn平均浓度变化不大,其余元素平均浓度变化不尽相同。Al、Cr、Ni、As、Se、Cd、Sb的非致癌风险在可接受水平,Cr、As暴露会产生潜在致癌风险。在降低扬尘自然污染源、燃煤源、工业源、交通源的基础上,应充分考虑Cr、As污染来源,有针对性地降低人群暴露风险。

气象要素与潜在林火风险关联性研究

为探究川西南地区复杂气候与森林火灾之间的关联性,以四川省凉山彝族自治州木里藏族自治县(以下简称“四川省凉山州木里县”)为例,通过局部规模的气象异常值变化,分析了各气象要素与森林火灾的潜在联系性。再通过FWI与FFDI,分析木里县历史火险变化,验证了其与木里县森林火灾的关联性。结果表明:森林火灾发生前后气压、气温、湿度、风速、蒸发量出现不同周期的连续增加(或衰减)。同时,木里县森林火险指数FWI与FFDI呈现出年际震荡且逐渐增大的趋势,且木里县林火频数与FWI的年均相关系数(46.9%)、月均相关系数(80.7%)均大于FFDI(年相关系数38.7%、月相关系数53.1%)。此外,林火风险值出现极端异常还与同期(或同年)发生的气候事件密切相关。因此,气候异常事件所导致的持续高温、低湿、多风的气象条件是森林火险等级快速升高或重大森林火灾事故的本质原因之一。

茄果类蔬菜矿质元素特征分布与膳食风险评估

为了探究广西市售茄果类蔬菜矿质元素含量特征和食用安全性,采用电感耦合等离子体质谱仪(ICP-MS)测定了150份茄果类蔬菜样品中7种矿质元素(Fe、Mn、Zn、Cu、Mo、Co、Ni)和5种常见危害重金属(Pb、Cd、As、Hg、Cr)含量并进行主成分分析及健康风险评估。结果表明,茄果类蔬菜中7种矿质元素平均含量排序为Fe>Mn>Zn>Cu>Ni>Mo>Co,变异系数介于44.7%(Fe)~247.8%(Ni),不同样品之间矿质元素含量差异较大;辣椒中6种矿质元素(Fe、Zn、Ni、Mn、Cu、Co)含量均最高。主成分分析结果显示,Fe、Mn、Zn、Cu、Co和Ni是广西市售茄果类蔬菜的特征无机元素,提取了2个主成分,累积方差贡献率为99.983%。茄果类蔬菜矿质元素综合得分排序为辣椒>番茄>茄子,表明辣椒中的有益矿质元素含量相对较高。茄果类蔬菜中5种重金属含量均未超过国家标准限量值,但存在Cd超标情况,辣椒、番茄和茄子超标率分别为10.4%、10.3%和8.0%。5种重金属对不同人群的目标危害系数(Target Hazard Quotient,THQ)和综合目标危害系数(Total Target Hazard Quotient,TTHQ)均远小于1。总体而言,儿童或成人食用广西市售茄果类蔬菜的膳食健康风险较低,处于安全级;但Cd是今后茄果类蔬菜需要重点监控的重金属污染因子。

关于电力建设工程项目安全风险管控的思考

基于相对安全理论,从全面能力与岗位能力、奖罚制度与流程管理、末端防控与前端治理、单要素管理与多要素协同等方面,对电力建设工程项目安全管理存在的问题进行分析,并提出了相应对策,为电力建设工程项目安全风险管控能力的提升和治理体系的完善提供思路。

我国数据出境安全风险要素体系研究

[目的/意义]构建数据出境风险要素体系,对识别数据出境安全风险,把握数据出境安全整体态势,提升国家安全风险管理水平具有重要意义。[方法/过程]以我国数据出境流动的现实场景和典型事件为依据,挖掘数据出境安全风险的主要来源维度;结合数据跨境服务主体调查,提出数据出境安全风险要素集,并构建数据出境安全风险框架;基于专家知识对风险要素进行权重排序和评估。[结果/结论]研究结果表明:内容维度的风险要素受到专家关注程度最高,内容的分级分类以及个人隐私保障是其中的重点;黑客、合作方等境外主体造成的风险具有极强的破坏力;出境环境变化与出境数据内部管理虽然同样容易产生风险,但负面影响相对较低。基于此,从法制保障、多元协同与关键技术角度提出数据跨境流动风险应对建议。