Model of generic project risk element transmission theory based on data mining

In order to construct the data mining frame for the generic project risk research, the basic definitions of the generic project risk element were given, and then a new model of the generic project risk element was presented with the definitions. From the model, data mining method was used to acquire the risk transmission matrix from the historical databases analysis. The quantitative calculation problem among the generic project risk elements was solved. This method deals with well the risk element transmission problems with limited states. And in order to get the limited states, fuzzy theory was used to discrete the historical data in historical databases. In an example, the controlling risk degree is chosen as P(Rs≥2) ≤0.1, it means that the probability of risk state which is not less than 2 in project is not more than 0.1, the risk element R3 is chosen to control the project, respectively. The result shows that three risk element transmission matrix can be acquired in 4 risk elements, and the frequency histogram and cumulative frequency histogram of each risk element are also given.

Analysis and evaluation of enterprise risk management capability elements

Research on enterprise risk management capability is conducted with a view of discerning and processing risks, in which an evaluation index system and an evaluation model of enterprise risk management capabilities are constructed. The risk management capability consists of four aspects, i.e. risk identification capability, risk assessment capability, risk planning capability and risk control capability. Risk identification and assessment capabilities reflect the level of enterprises on finding and analyzing risks efficiently, while risk planning and control capabilities reflect the level of enterprises on resolving risks effectively. Each of capabilities is then further divided into more detailed elements based on the characteristics of enterprise development for a quantitative analysis of enterprise risk management capability. The approach adopted is a quantitative technique based on the use of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Finally, a case is pulled in to illustrate the feasibility of the method from an empirical perspective. This study is expected to be helpful for enterprises in cultivating their core capabilities.

锑矿周边土-蔬金属元素富集特征与风险评估

为揭示不同锑矿废渣堆放区周围土壤-蔬菜系统中潜在有害重金属元素(PTEs)的富集特征及健康风险,该文以不同种类废渣堆场(锑矿废石、锑矿冶炼渣、锑矿尾砂)周围3处村落及在废渣共同影响下的琏溪河下游的1处村落为采样区,并以采样区域内的土壤-蔬菜系统为研究对象。运用统计学、迁移系数法和体外消化模拟法等方法对土壤和蔬菜样品中的Sb、As、Hg、Pb、Cd和Zn等6种PTE的富集特征及健康风险评估进行讨论。结果表明,6种PTEs在土壤中的平均含量均超过湖南省土壤背景值及风险筛选值。所有蔬菜样品对土壤PTEs的吸收能力弱,生物累积系数平均值低于0.12。蔬菜样品的PTEs中Pb、Cd、Zn的生物转移系数数值均超过1.0,易被蔬菜富集。4个采样区中,锑的暴露风险指数均大于1.0,对人体存在明显的健康风险。用于评价复合污染危害的指数HI在4个采样区均大于2.0,主要PTEs污染因子为Sb和Pb,复合污染已对人体存在健康风险。研究表明,4个采样区的土壤已受到多种PTEs的污染与富集,蔬菜对当地居民均存在健康风险,需要特别关注。

我国数据出境安全风险要素体系研究

[目的/意义]构建数据出境风险要素体系,对识别数据出境安全风险,把握数据出境安全整体态势,提升国家安全风险管理水平具有重要意义。[方法/过程]以我国数据出境流动的现实场景和典型事件为依据,挖掘数据出境安全风险的主要来源维度;结合数据跨境服务主体调查,提出数据出境安全风险要素集,并构建数据出境安全风险框架;基于专家知识对风险要素进行权重排序和评估。[结果/结论]研究结果表明:内容维度的风险要素受到专家关注程度最高,内容的分级分类以及个人隐私保障是其中的重点;黑客、合作方等境外主体造成的风险具有极强的破坏力;出境环境变化与出境数据内部管理虽然同样容易产生风险,但负面影响相对较低。基于此,从法制保障、多元协同与关键技术角度提出数据跨境流动风险应对建议。

Climate change vulnerability assessment in the new urban planning process in Tanzania

Climate change vulnerability assessment is an essential tool for identifying regions that are most susceptible to the impacts of climate change and designing effective adaptation actions that can reduce vulnerability and enhance long-term resilience of these regions.This study explored a framework for climate change vulnerability assessment in the new urban planning process in Jangwani Ward,Tanzania.Specifically,taking flood as an example,this study highlighted the steps and methods for climate change vulnerability assessment in the new urban planning process.In the study area,95 households were selected and interviewed through purposeful sampling.Additionally,10 respondents(4 females and 6 males)were interviewed for Focus Group Discussion(FGD),and 3 respondents(1 female and 2 males)were selected for Key Informant Interviews(KII)at the Ministry of Lands,Housing and Human Settlements Development.This study indicated that climate change vulnerability assessment framework involves the assessment of climatic hazards,risk elements,and adaptive capacity,and the determination of vulnerability levels.The average hazard risk rating of flood was 2.3.Socioeconomic and livelihood activities and physical infrastructures both had the average risk element rating of 3.0,and ecosystems had the average risk element rating of 2.9.Adaptive capacity ratings of knowledge,technology,economy or finance,and institution were 1.6,1.9,1.4,and 2.2,respectively.The vulnerability levels of socioeconomic and livelihood activities and physical infrastructure were very high(4.0).Ecosystems had a high vulnerability level(3.8)to flood.The very high vulnerability level of socioeconomic and livelihood activities was driven by high exposure and sensitivity to risk elements and low adaptive capacity.The study recommends adoption of the new urban planning process including preparation,planning,implementation,and monitoring-evaluation-review phases that integrates climate change vulnerability assessment in all phases.

数据要素流通安全治理:体系架构与实践进路

[目的/意义]数据要素流通的治理体系与政策研究是当前中国数据治理领域亟待解决的重要问题,探讨其流通的政策制定与治理体系,对于中国把握数据流通安全,推进数据要素市场化配置具有重要作用。[方法/过程]首先,本研究立足于中国数据要素市场安全可信、自主可控的现实要求,从数据主权、数据市场、数据流通3个层面进行数据安全风险分析,提出数据要素市场风险治理对策的“安全-公平-效率”三角架构;其次,面向数据要素流通市场政府主导、平台主营、企业主体、用户参与的特点,借助协同共治理论和价值共创理论,构建了具有中国特色的数据要素市场多方协同共治模式框架;最后,基于数据要素市场治理的三级体系、五维标准,提出了安全治理与可信生态体系及数据跨境流通的国际数据治理规则体系对接方法,并构建了面向全国统一数据要素市场的中国特色治理体系。[结果/结论]面向数据主权、数据市场、数据流通中的安全风险,应对数据主权纠纷与流通市场运行态势开展识别与监测,建立政府主导、平台主营、企业主体、用户参与的多方协同共治模式;在对数据要素市场进行评估时,应采取定性与定量相结合、专家意见与客观数据相融合、目标与成果相对照的混合评估方法;针对不同数据类型,应分级分类厘清控制边界和使用范围,明晰数据所有权、使用权和收益权,同时建立数据确权平台,对数据服务主体、数据流通过程、数据流通规则等进行审核及登记认证,确保数据流通的规范性。

Changes in the Regulating Ecosystem Service on the Contaminated Site Used for Energy Purposes

Soil cleaning, the ability of the soil to immobilize the risk elements, belongs to important agroecosystem services in terms of protection of the hydrosphere and plant production from contamination. Dynamic monitoring of selected indicators of soil quality was realized in a special network of site on soil used for planting fast growing willow (Salix viminalis). Monitoring of the study site Kuchyňa (Mollic Fluvisol) is running since 2010 year. The fast-growing willow was planted on an area of about 43 hectares. Study site Kuchyňa belonged to the degraded contaminated sites, at the time of planting (the total contents of the risk elements were as follows: Cd 1.016 mg∙kg−1, Zn 199.000 mg∙kg−1, Ni 51.500 mg∙kg−1) There were positive changes in the total content of cadmium, zinc and nickel (in 2018 year), the zinc content decreased by 27% compared to 2010, the nickel content was lower by 23% and the Cd content by 57% in comparison to 2010 year, these elements have a declining trend during the monitored period. The remediation ability of the willow in relation to the risk elements was manifested by the accumulation of these elements in the wood mass and by their decrease in the soil below the limit value. The regulatory ecosystem service, the potential for the immobilisation of the risk elements, was evaluated based on the sum of the assessment of the contamination potential and the sorption potential of soil. The decrease of the total content of risk elements in the soil below the limit value was manifested in the increase of the potential of the agroecosystem regulatory service, the potential of risk element immobilisation, from very low category to medium category. If willow cultivation continued in the next decade, the value of risk element Zn would most likely reach the value 73 mg∙kg−1, which is less than 50% of the limit value, based on the results of the predictive model. In the case of Cd, the soil would be completely cleaned and in the case of Ni, its total content in the soil would fall to 23 mg∙kg−1, which is less than 40% of the limit value. The overall potential for contamination would fall into the category—very low (forecast for 2021 year). The higher potential of immobilisation reduces the risk of contaminants transport and thus prevents contamination of the other ecosystem components such as biota.

数据要素背景下企业风险防控体系建设探讨

在全球化和数字化的背景下,企业面临着前所未有的挑战和机遇,高质量发展已成为企业生存和发展的关键。构建一个高效、灵活且全面的风险防控体系,对于保障企业安全、稳健发展具有至关重要的意义。文章对企业风险管控现状、风险管控体系的重要性及关键因素进行分析,旨在探讨在数据要素背景下如何通过强化风险防控体系,实现企业高质量安全发展,为企业提供风险管理的战略思考和实践指导。

基于网络依存关系的CPPS连锁故障分析及风险评估

信息系统的融合给电网安全运行带来了新的风险,因此有必要研究电力信息物理系统(cyber-physical power system,CPPS)连锁故障的产生及传播机理。首先建立CPPS部分相互依存模型,采用老化因素、潮流、隐性故障、偶然因素构建电网风险元,采用信息占用率、拓扑结构、网络攻击、节点负荷以及依存关系构建信息网风险元,从而将风险元理论应用于CPPS连锁故障预测过程。其次提出一种同时考虑两网失负荷率的风险计算方法,可以识别骨干层与接入层的关键节点。最后分析信息节点自身故障和网络攻击引起的信息节点失效对连锁故障的不同影响。算例分析表明:依存关系会促进故障在两网传播,增大系统的风险;对CPPS进行整体分析能较全面地评估连锁故障风险,识别关键信息节点;同时遭受网络攻击与信息节点自身故障的CPPS的平均风险最高,需采取措施提高其可靠性。

山区公路施工安全评价中聚类分析的应用研究

依据山区公路施工的特点,结合依托工程构建了具有23个指标的风险因素安全评价指标体系,并设定了5个等级的风险评价集.采用专家调研问卷的方式,针对风险评价集对风险指标因素对进行打分,在此基础上采用模糊ISODATA聚类分析方法对风险因素进行模糊聚类,揭示其与风险评价级间的关系.结果表明:在所研究范围内,山区公路施工中的危险因素倾向于较高风险、一般风险和可忽略危险这3类风险级别,其中属于一般风险的风险因素约占总量的65.2%,而属于较高风险和可忽略风险的风险因素则各占17.4%;模糊ISODATA方法可以有效地解决山区公路施工中风险因素指标评价问题,能准确地从全局和总体上提供分类指导依据.

施工项目中设计风险元传递模型研究

针对设计变更对项目实施的影响,本文将影响施工项目的设计变更原因称为项目的设计风险元,基于广义项目风险元传递理论建立系统动力学模型,动态研究设计风险元传递过程。通过模型模拟分析不同时间、不同程度的设计风险元对项目工期和项目费用影响程度,当设计风险元发生后,设计审批及设计过程将影响项目工期;受施工工序影响设计风险元造成实际施工速度不饱和,使得施工效率低下形成窝工;由于设计风险元导致的返工造成施工项目的工期延误和成本超支。此模型为风险管理者或项目管理者在设计风险管理方面提供了有力依据。

专家可信度在山区公路建设安全评价中的应用研究

根据山区公路建设特点,结合依托工程构建了具有5个指标的风险因素安全评价指标体系,并在3个级别的专家中开展问卷调查,进行评价指标因素间重要程度判断以及对于5个等级的风险评价集的隶属度评判,引入专家可信度影响并开展模糊评价,最终确定山区公路建设的风险程度.结果表明:安全评价指标体系、专家分级与风险评价集符合山区公路建设风险评价要求,专家个体针对安全评价指标的重要程度判断和风险度评判具有明显差别,开展专家可信度分析是在考虑个体影响基础上形成统一的量化结果的有效方法,结合专家可信度分析的模糊层次分析法可有效解决山区公路建设风险评价相关问题.

房地产开发风险多因素层次决策支持系统运用探讨

以房地产开发商为主要考察对象,运用项目风险管理理论,在简要介绍多因素层次模糊决策支持系统的基础上,对房地产开发中存在的主要风险因素及层次进行了分析,并运用多因素层次决策支持系统对房地产开发中的风险进行分析.同时对该方法与传统层次分析法(AHP)做了比较,指出了这种方法的优势.运用这种方法旨在为开发商对开发项目的风险判别提供一些可参考的依据,无论对开发项目的微观管理,还是宏观调控都会产生明显的社会经济效应.

防洪工程体系综合风险评价的物元模型

鉴于防洪工程体系的重要性,针对防洪工程体系这一多维因素综合体的风险评价问题,选取了典型风险指标,对防洪工程的风险状况进行了分级,应用物元分析及可拓集合中的关联函数,建立了防洪工程体系的综合评判物元模型,得出以流域(或区域)为单位的防洪工程体系的综合风险评价的定量指标。实例研究表明了该模型方法的可行性、合理性与有效性。

航运公司安全管理风险评价系统设计与开发

为使有限的监管资源发挥最有效的作用,海事管理机构需要评价与量化航运公司的安全管理风险。采用可扩展的熵权物元方法建立航运公司安全管理风险评价模型,设计与开发航运公司安全管理风险评价系统。该系统可与不同的指标体系相适应,对不同类型的航运公司进行安全管理风险等级评价和排序。对497家航运公司进行实例分析,得到较为客观、合理的评价结果。海事管理机构可以利用评价结果合理调配监管资源,提高监管效率。

基于标准化管理的企业知识产权风险控制管理模式研究

为了规避知识产权受到侵害或侵犯他人知识产权等运营风险,实施有效的知识产权管理已成为企业主要的应对策略。借鉴OHSAS18000,ISO9001管理标准的风险控制与过程管理等方法,针对知识产权在企业经营不同阶段的体现,从内部管理活动与经营业务活动两方面设计16个控制要素;设置固化的管理流程;构建企业知识产权管理标准的系统框架;由规划,资源管理,活动管理,检查、分析和改进,管理评审5个方面组成的PDCA的管理模式,以实现知识产权风险管理与企业经营管理活动的有机结合。

基于改进物元可拓法的东北林区贮木场火险评估

为提升贮木场火灾防范能力,降低火灾发生率,运用改进物元可拓法评估东北林区贮木场火险。从人、机、物、环、管等角度,构建包含5个一级指标,16个二级指标的东北林区贮木场火险评估指标体系;进而基于贮木场火险指标的层次结构,考虑火险因子量化的模糊性,建立东北贮木场火灾危险等级评定物元模型,实现对东北林区贮木场火灾危险等级的评定。实例分析结果表明:改进的物元可拓法适用于东北贮木场火灾危险等级评定,并可进一步结合雷达图直观表述单火险指标的危险性,使贮木场的防火管理可视化,为贮木场安全生产和科学化管理提供理论依据。

体育赛事风险评估模糊物元模型的构建与应用研究

为了在赛事筹备阶段充分评价预估可能存在的风险以及风险级别,将模糊数学的原理引入到体育赛事风险评价中。首先对体育赛事风险评估概念进行界定,依据风险来源、历史资料、专家建议构建了赛事风险评估指标体系;然后构建了风险评估模糊物元模型,并且采用信息熵客观赋权与德尔菲法主观赋权结合的方式确定指标权重;最后通过对赛事进行实际的评价分析,给出了利用该模型进行评价的方法和过程。

构建我国产业损害风险预警机制问题研究——基于机理模型中的可拓物元视角

基于物元模型的可拓方法在评价中的应用主要在产品质量的评价上,在其它学科中的应用很少。产业损害预警针对是一种综合风险,是多重经济因素和社会因素共同作用的结果,具有指标众多,不易量化的特点。而风险评价具有相对性和主观性,因此,很难明确地界定产业风险的"状态分界"。但建立在可拓集合基础上的物元评价方法不仅能从性质上反映被评价对象本身存在状态的所属程度,更具特色的是能从数量上刻画两种状态的边界。因此,我们应用可拓学的理论和方法,提出相应的物元模型,独创性地对产业风险进行了综合评价。

基于物元模型的电力变压器全寿命周期成本风险评价

对电力变压器全寿命周期成本建模中的风险因素进行评估,是提高全寿命周期成本管理科学性的重要手段。针对影响变压器全寿命周期成本的风险因素,建立了变压器全寿命周期成本风险指标体系,引入物元模型和可拓分析理论,将定性指标定量化,提出了变压器全寿命周期成本风险评价物元模型。结合实例,将变压器全寿命周期成本管理时的不确定因素量化,构建了全寿命周期成本风险评估体系,应用物元模型评定变压器成本风险隶属等级,同时得到影响变压器全寿命周期成本管理的关键风险因素,供在实际应用中针对各种风险因素提出相应管控策略参考。