A quantitative model for danger degree evaluation of staged operation of earth dam reservoir in flood season and its application

Based on the natural disaster risk evaluation mode, a quantitative danger degree evaluation model was developed to evaluate the danger degree of earth dam reservoir staged operation in the flood season. A formula for the overtopping risk rate of the earth dam reservoir staged operation was established, with consideration of the joint effect of flood and wind waves in the flood sub-seasons with the Monte Carlo method, and the integrated overtopping risk rate for the whole flood season was obtained via the total probability approach. A composite normalized function was used to transform the dam overtopping risk rate into the danger degree, on a scale of 0-1. Danger degree gradating criteria were divided by four significant characteristic values of the dam overtopping rate, and corresponding guidelines for danger evaluation are explained in detail in this paper. Examples indicated that the dam overtopping danger degree of the Chengbihe Reservoir in China was 0.33-0.57, within the range of moderate danger level, and the flood-limiting water level （FLWL） can be adjusted to 185.00 m for the early and main flood seasons, and 185.00-187.50 m for the late flood season. The proposed quantitative model offers a theoretical basis for determination of the value of the danger degree of an earth dam reservoir under normal operation as well as the optimal scheduling scheme for the reservoir in each stage of the flood season.

State of the Art and Emerging Trends in Operations and Maintenance of Offshore Oil and Gas Production Facilities:Some Experiences and Observations

Plant maintenance has been a discipline that has gradually evolved with the industrial revolution. For quite some time, it has been a ＂necessary evil＂ in production, manufacturing, and process settings. The changing business needs and industrial conditions have had various impacts on the maintenance process, particularly over the last few years. While some industries have inherent difficulties seeing what maintenance is all about, others have begun to add more flavor to the organizational maintenance practices. This article brings an overview of developments within the offshore oil and gas production sector.

A Survey on Network Operation and Maintenance Quality Evaluation Models

The evaluation of network operation and maintenance quality is an important reference for carriers to improve their service.However,the traditional evaluation methods involve so much human participation that it cannot cope with the explosive amount of data.Therefore,both the major carriers and researchers are trying to find solutions to evaluate the quality of network operation and maintenance more objectively and accurately.In this paper,we analyze the general process of quality evaluation models for network operation and maintenance.The process has four steps:1)selection of evaluation indicators;2)data process for chosen indicators;3)determination of indicator weights;4)establishment of evaluation models.We further describe the working principle of each step,especially the methods for indicator selection and weight determination.Finally,we review the recently proposed evaluation models and the international stan dards of network operation and maintenance quality evaluation.

Validation of the Chinese system for cardiac operative risk evaluation (SinoSCORE):the experience from Guangdong Cardiovascular Institute

Objective To validate of the Chinese system for cardiac operative risk evaluation (SinoSCORE) in Cantonese surgery patients. Methods Data from Guangdong Cardiovascular Institute in the period January 2004 through December 2008 were analyzed on 2462 Cantonese heart surgery patients. First,compared risk factors of this series and database of SinoSCORE,and then calculated

Data-Driven Model for Risk Assessment of Cable Fire in Utility Tunnels Using Evidential Reasoning Approach

Cable fire is one of the most important events for operation and maintenance(O&M)safety in underground utility tunnels(UUTs).Since there are limited studies about cable fire risk assessment,a comprehensive assessment model is proposed to evaluate the cable fire risk in different UUT sections and improve O&M efficiency.Considering the uncertainties in the risk assessment,an evidential reasoning(ER)approach is used to combine quantitative sensor data and qualitative expert judgments.Meanwhile,a data transformation technique is contributed to transform continuous data into a five-grade distributed assessment.Then,a case study demonstrates how the model and the ER approach are established.The results show that in Shenzhen,China,the cable fire risk in District 8,B Road is the lowest,while more resources should be paid in District 3,C Road and District 25,C Road,which are selected as comparative roads.Based on the model,a data-driven O&M process is proposed to improve the O&M effectiveness,compared with traditional methods.This study contributes an effective ER-based cable fire evaluation model to improve the O&M efficiency of cable fire in UUTs.

Risk evaluation for the task transfer of an aircraft maintenance program based on a multielement connection number

This paper proposes a framework for evaluating the efficacy and suitability of maintenance programs with a focus on quantitative risk assessment in the domain of aircraft maintenance task transfer. The analysis is anchored in the principles of Maintenance Steering Group-3 (MSG-3) logic decision paradigms. The paper advances a holistic risk assessment index architecture tailored for the task transfer of maintenance programs. Utilizing the analytic network process (ANP), the study quantifies the weight interrelationships among diverse variables, incorporating expert-elicited subjective weighting. A multielement connection number-based evaluative model is employed to characterize decision-specific data, thereby facilitating the quantification of task transfer-associated risk through the appraisal of set-pair potentials. Moreover, the paper conducts a temporal risk trend analysis founded on partial connection numbers of varying orders. This analytical construct serves to streamline the process of risk assessment pertinent to maintenance program task transfer. The empirical component of this research, exemplified through a case study of the Boeing 737NG aircraft maintenance program, corroborates the methodological robustness and pragmatic applicability of the proposed framework in the quantification and analysis of mission transfer risk.

ADDRESSING FINANCIAL OBJECTIONS TO SUSTAINABLE DESIGN AND CONSTRUCTION

We have the tools and the knowledge to create much healthier,economical,and ecologically responsible buildings at little or no incremental cost over that of conventional buildings.Unfortunately,both actual and perceived financial barriers are preventing widespread adoption of sustainable design,construction,and maintenance practices.Often organizations express a commitment to sustainable design and construction,but limit the actual implementation to only low-hanging fruit and ignore any significant investment.We need to be able to explain the benefits of sustainable design,construction,and facilities management in a more compelling fashion.In addition to talking about important features of green building,such as decreased use of energy,water,and other natural resources,we need to emphasize the benefits of green building in terms that resonate with key decision makers,such as higher net profits,increased asset values,enhanced image and reduced risk.This article provides useful information that could help you address some barriers to sustainable initiatives:•Every executive that you speak to is aware that data can be manipulated and may be skeptical of studies conducted by organizations that could benefit from a particular set of results.So I’ve included information on independent third-party studies.•In challenging economic times,people are particularly concerned about short-term cash flow.So I’ve included information on programs developed by the Building Owners and Management Association(BOMA)International to maximize asset values without sacrificing shorter-term profits.•Often people are risk-averse and feel more comfortable in the middle of the pack than on the cutting edge.So I’m including information on some potential risks of not going green,including decreased asset values and increased operating costs.Many aspects of sustainable design and construction are based upon proven technology and are being increasingly incorporated into best practices for the design and construction industries,which might lead to legal problems for those who do not include the more widely accepted sustainability measures in their projects.It can be difficult to find and navigate through existing incentives for energy efficiency.So I’m including information on a tool to help you find what initiatives are available and some expert advice on how to use this type of tool.•Often an executive may be far more concerned with the next quarter’s financial results than in the long-term profitability of an organization that he or she may very well not be working for in 20 years.Currently accepted financial accounting methods encourage this short-term focus.So I’m including information on the efforts of leaders in the finance sector to change accounting principles to accommodate considerations of long-term profitability.•Normally,people tend to accept the opinions of acknowledged leaders in their own fields.So I’m including examples of how sustainable initiatives are contributing to the bottom lines of several highly respected organizations.I’m also including information about efforts to create a globally accepted framework for accounting for sustainability that brings together financial,environmental,social,and governance information in a single integrated reporting format by a coalition including the Big Four accounting firms-PricewaterhouseCoopers,Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu,Ernst&Young and KPMG.

云模型在地下综合管廊运维安全管理绩效评价中的应用研究

为了系统地了解地下综合管廊运维安全管理工作效果,提出一种基于云模型的管廊运维安全管理绩效评价模型。在分析影响管廊运维安全相关因素的基础上,构建了管廊运维安全管理绩效评价指标体系。利用层次分析法和熵权法进行组合赋权从而确定各项评价指标权重,结合云模型进行管廊运维安全管理绩效评价。结果显示:所调研管廊的安全运维工作评价结果在“合格”和“良好”之间,总体趋向于“良好”,并识别出人员培训与提升是运维安全管理工作中的薄弱环节。该模型可以有效地评价管廊运维安全管理工作效果并识别出风险环节,丰富了管廊运维安全管理绩效评价的理论研究。

基于FOA-BP的风电运维人员不安全行为风险评价

为评价风电运维人员不安全行为风险,减少行为安全事故的发生,在确定不安全行为风险因素集合的基础上构建不安全行为风险评价指标体系,利用果蝇优化算法调整BP神经网络权值和阈值,建立基于FOA-BP的不安全行为风险评价模型。以某风电场为例收集数据对模型进行测试,实现不安全行为风险评价并计算风险评价指标权重。结果表明:该模型预测性能较好,能够评价不安全行为风险,企业可依据评价指标、指标权重值及风险等级制定针对性的防控措施。

数据中心健康度评价方法探讨

近20年来,数据中心的快速发展不仅促进了很多专业的融合,同时也对其自身建设、维护和运营提出更高要求,亟需建立健康度评价体系及评价方法。首先回顾了数据中心发展的历程,并提出IDC健康度评价体系的组成内容。然后提出IDC的评价指标,并将该评价体系在现有数据中心的近3年运用的实际评价数据,以图表形式展示给IDC的管理者,以便管理者通过横向比较来查缺补漏,不断提升经营、建设和维护的能力,为后续的建设提供有益的指导。

港口油气化工码头非常规危险性作业安全风险管控研究

为系统、有效管控港口油气化工码头非常规危险性作业及特殊作业,降低事故发生的概率,对非常规危险性作业及特殊作业进行研究。以风险管理科学为基本原理,研究港口油气化工码头非常规危险性作业及特殊作业的识别原理和方法。根据安全工程学原理,结合风险评价矩阵法,进一步确定非常规危险作业及特殊作业种类,对现有的非常规危险性作业及特殊作业进行系统的危险源辨识,制定控制措施,建立相关安全风险数据库,将数据库作为信息来源,制定出符合企业实际情况的班组作业安全交底卡或(和)特殊作业许可证,形成适合港口油气化工码头非常规危险性作业及特殊作业安全风管控的手段,提高港口现有风险管控措施的实用性,从而有效控制港口油气化工码头的安全风险。

基于模糊评价法的电缆主动检修新策略

针对电缆数量庞大且检修覆盖能力有限的问题,研究了基于模糊评价的电缆绝缘状态主动检修新策略。以敏感度系数和影响程度为指标,评估了运行年限、敷设方式、负荷类型及长度与电缆绝缘状态之间的相关性;使用信息熵来量化系统的无序程度,构建基于互信息法的权重系数分配方法,得到了检修急迫性指数评价指标;通过某故障电缆的典型应用案例,确认了多层次模糊综合评估模型的可信度。实际应用结果表明,所提方法可以客观地评估电缆绝缘状态,为电缆的检修急迫性提供了参考依据。

基于分层网络的电能表运行状态评价

现有的电能表状态评价大都从孤立微观的角度对电能表运行状态进行评估,没有从更大的视角对台区电能表进行整体评价。孤立地对单个电能表进行状态评价,有可能造成对整个台区运行风险的误判。为了更加全面细致掌握电能表及台区的运行状态,文章提出了一种分层网络模型。方法是基于用电采集系统和计量生产调度平台的历史数据,根据各指标的状态对电能表质量,预期寿命和故障率进行评分,依据评分将电能表状态划分为稳定、正常、关注、严重和预警五个等级。基于台区终端记录的电能表异常事件数据,利用深度决策森林(Deep Neural Decision Forests)模型将台区中的异常事件等级程度划分为严重、重要、较重要和一般四个等级,模型分类正确率达到86.58%。实验结果表明,方法能够准确判断电能表的运行状态和整个台区的运行风险情况,为实现电网可靠稳定运行创造了条件。

基于重要度的风电机组备件分类策略研究

针对风电行业备件数量多、需求波动大、分布地区广和业务需求多样的特性,现有评价指标体系不能全面评估的问题,提出了基于重要度的两级多指标分类方法。首先,对风电企业运维业务数据进行分析,从风电机组备件采购、备件调配、备件使用的3个准则17个指标建立层次备件评价指标体系,并依据指标特点构建赋分体系。其次选取定性、定量指标计算备件重要度,作为先筛选再分类两级分类依据,得出3大类、27小类的分类结果。最后对分类结果进行分析,提出相应的管理建议。

考虑调度措施的地区电网多风险场景柔性水平评价模型

新能源大量接入地区电网导致地区电网潮流和电压波动增大,设备重过载风险增加。面向新能源功率的强不确定性,快速准确地识别设备重过载风险场景,优化调用源-网-荷三方柔性资源消除潜在运行风险,是高比例新能源地区电网安全运行的迫切需求。文中首先提出柔性需求指数、柔性裕度指数和柔性资源利用率等面向地区电网柔性运行水平的定量评估指标,可以全面衡量地区电网的运行灵活性需求、柔性资源配置和运行调控水平;其次,以柔性评价指标为目标,提出考虑多风险场景的柔性资源优化调度数学模型和计算方法,模型考虑了地区电网运行方式和开环点灵活设置的调度措施;最后,与传统边界场景分析方法进行对比,验证文中所提柔性评价模型和方法的有效性和优越性。结果表明,文中所提指标、模型和算法可以全面反映地区电网的柔性运行需求和能力,考虑的风险场景丰富,应对风险的柔性资源调度方案能兼顾调度措施的经济性和全面性。

我国农村生活污水与农田退水面源氮磷污染生态净化技术现状与研究进展

当前,我国农村生活污水与农田退水面源氮磷污染尚未得到有效治理,解决此类污染的代表措施——“生态净化技术”的发展广受关注。本文从技术发展、技术标准、技术体系三个角度切入,对农村生活污水与农田退水氮磷污染生态净化技术进行梳理分析。技术发展从分析和介绍当前热门生态净化技术的研究进展开始,通过调研整理这些技术在我国的推广和应用,梳理其在我国不同区域的发展特征,归纳出当前生态净化技术应用所面临的困难。当前相关部门对生态净化工程的监管仅关注出水水质的达标率,缺乏有效的后期维护及意见调查反馈。在技术标准方面,本文梳理了关于已发布实施的生态净化工程的的系列标准,认为应引入综合效益评价方法,以完善我国生态净化工程的评价体系。在技术体系方面,以生态净化技术的拦截性和修复性为依据对单一技术进行分类,并分别针对农村生活污水、农田退水提出了对应的技术联用体系。

基于LEC法的磷矿矿山作业岗位水患风险评价

在地下矿山建设和生产时期,水患从始至终都是影响正常生产及人员安全的重要因素。为有效评价地下磷矿矿山开采作业中遇到水患风险情况,基于地下磷矿矿山掘进作业活动、工作步骤和场所部位,选取透水作为主要事故类型,并对涉及水患的作业岗位进行识别判定,运用增加修正系数后的作业条件危险性分析法对其进行评价,得出了相对前一个风险评价时期的风险等级,以及涉及水患岗位面临透水事故三个重要参数-事故发生的可能性变化、暴露于危险环境频繁程度和危险性相较于前期变化,然后确定使得风险的等级变化的影响要素,使得各个责任部门、岗位以及管控层级明确自身防控重点,落实安全责任。

基于博弈论组合赋权云物元模型的城市道路交通系统风险评价

为保障城市道路交通系统安全运行,降低城市交通事故发生概率,提出了一种基于博弈论组合赋权云物元城市道路交通系统风险评价模型。从城市道路交通系统风险因素出发,结合《城市道路交通管理评价指标体系》,选取实习期驾驶员比例等15个风险评价指标,构建“人-车-道-环”评价指标体系。基于云物元模型,解决评价指标中存在模糊性与随机性的问题,同时采用博弈论将C-OWA有序加权算子处理的专家打分值和改进熵权法求出的权重进行组合优化,围绕待评物元与风险等级之间的隶属度,计算得出风险等级。将该模型应用于中国西部某城市A道路交通系统,展开风险评价,同时将该模型的评价结果与C-OWA云物元模型和熵权云物元模型的评价结果进行对比。结果表明:该模型得出城市A道路交通系统中各指标风险评价结果与实地走访调研结果及实际情况基本一致,且博弈论组合赋权云物元城市道路交通系统风险评价模型更加具有实用性和有效性,可为城市道路交通系统风险评价提供新思路。

天玑骨科机器人TiRobot Recon导航系统使用风险关键控制点确定及运维管理体系应用效果分析

目的:构建天玑骨科机器人TiRobot Recon导航系统风险控制点确定及运维管理体系(以下简称风险控制运维管理体系)并分析应用效果,为提高天玑骨科机器人临床服务效果和质量提供理论指导与参考。方法:通过查阅文献、总结临床实践经验等方式明确天玑骨科机器人TiRobot Recon导航系统风险关键控制点,据此构建风险控制运维管理体系,比较该体系实施前(2022年1月~2022年12月)与实施后(2023年1月~2023年12月)对天玑骨科机器人TiRobot Recon导航系统的管理效果。结果:实施风险控制运维管理体系后,天玑骨科机器人TiRobot Recon导航系统日均使用时间、预期目标达标率、系统风险事件上报准确性、风险预警及时性和风险事件数据规范性均高于实施前,系统故障待机时间和故障率低于实施前,差异有统计学意义(t=6.956、9.656、5.415、4.678、3.711、3.354、5.229,P<0.05);实施分线控制运维管理体系后,天玑骨科机器人TiRobot Recon导航系统的人员日常养护、使用前检查、使用后清洁、系统操作、故障应对、紧急处理等操作熟练度评分均高于实施前,差异有统计学意义(t=4.225、2.399、2.385、2.597、2.421、3.560,P<0.05)。结论:采用风险控制运维管理体系可提高天玑骨科机器人TiRobot Recon导航系统的使用效果,强化人员操作熟练度,临床应用优势明显,具有应用价值。

高速公路日常养护作业安全风险及防控措施研究

研究了高速公路日常养护作业安全风险及防控措施,分析了养护施工的特点、主要风险因素、风险分析流程等主要内容,并从前期安全风险防控、作业现场防控部署、施工过程安全管理等方面出发,研究了安全风险防控的有效措施,科学评价了影响高速公路日常养护作业安全的主要因素,以提高安全风险的处理效果,保证现场作业的高效、安全进行。