This article constructs a dual-circulation production network framework on the basis of integrating inter-country and China's multi-regional input-output tables,identifies the propagation and attenuation of sector...This article constructs a dual-circulation production network framework on the basis of integrating inter-country and China's multi-regional input-output tables,identifies the propagation and attenuation of sectoral shocks in dual-circulation production networks,and measures the effects of US-China trade frictions on the networks.The research finds that:(1)The asymmetry between domestic-and internationalcirculation production networks has increased,and with a few sectors becoming key sectors to dual-circulation production networks,sectoral shocks grow increasingly critical for aggregate volatility.(2)Based on the above analytical framework,the global extraction method(GEM)is adopted to simulate the GDP losses in scenarios of China-US industry-wide chain interruptions,certain sectoral frictions,and supplyside and demand-side chain interruptions.The simulation finds that increasing the domestic substitution rate will reduce the value losses caused by China-US chain interruptions,which is applied for both countries.However,even if full substitution can be achieved,the value losses cannot be avoided completely in the China-US decoupling.Whether it is the demand-side chain interruptions plus insufficient market substitution in China,or the supply-side chain interruptions plus insufficient supply substitution in the US,will cause great losses to their economy.展开更多
文摘This article constructs a dual-circulation production network framework on the basis of integrating inter-country and China's multi-regional input-output tables,identifies the propagation and attenuation of sectoral shocks in dual-circulation production networks,and measures the effects of US-China trade frictions on the networks.The research finds that:(1)The asymmetry between domestic-and internationalcirculation production networks has increased,and with a few sectors becoming key sectors to dual-circulation production networks,sectoral shocks grow increasingly critical for aggregate volatility.(2)Based on the above analytical framework,the global extraction method(GEM)is adopted to simulate the GDP losses in scenarios of China-US industry-wide chain interruptions,certain sectoral frictions,and supplyside and demand-side chain interruptions.The simulation finds that increasing the domestic substitution rate will reduce the value losses caused by China-US chain interruptions,which is applied for both countries.However,even if full substitution can be achieved,the value losses cannot be avoided completely in the China-US decoupling.Whether it is the demand-side chain interruptions plus insufficient market substitution in China,or the supply-side chain interruptions plus insufficient supply substitution in the US,will cause great losses to their economy.
